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Dynasty & Redraft: RB/WR Antonio Gibson, Washington

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Seems a little risky until late 2nd or 3rd rd of rookie drafts.  I would feel more comfortable taking him in the 3rd.

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19 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Nice, it's great to be able to stash backs like that.

Gibson is 6'0" 228. Cohen is......checks notes......5'6" 191 -----I know that wasn't what you meant but I had to look and see how big Gibson was. I'm not even saying you're wrong but if his game looks like Cohen and he has this size then sign me up for a ticket. I want to see what happens. I'm not a huge Cohen fan but he can definitely be electric at times. 

Yea I was relating him to Cohen in his playmaking ability I see alot of similarities that I'm excited about to watch him develop. 

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13 minutes ago, Dacomish said:

Yea I was relating him to Cohen in his playmaking ability I see alot of similarities that I'm excited about to watch him develop. 

dig it

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14 minutes ago, Dacomish said:

Yea I was relating him to Cohen in his playmaking ability I see alot of similarities that I'm excited about to watch him develop. 

As a Bears fan I am sour on him. He can get to the sidelines laterally for a 2 yard loss faster than anyone in the league. If the object is to race to that spot he is your guy. Definitely electric at times.

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5 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Seems a little risky until late 2nd or 3rd rd of rookie drafts.  I would feel more comfortable taking him in the 3rd.

I think it's very risky. Crowded backfield, franchise instability. But the payoff is a three down back that can catch bombs.  His per touch numbers in college break all models. His highlights include long runs up the middle, deep post patterns from the slot, and kickoff returns where he looks very, very fast.  This guy is Madden set to ROOKIE:

Quote

Rushing: 33 carries, 369 yards, 4 touchdowns (11.2 yards per carry)

Receiving: 38 catches, 735 yards, 8 touchdowns (19.3 yards per reception)

Returning: 23 returns, 645 yards, 1 touchdown (28.0 yards per return)

Overall: 94 all-purpose touches, 1,749 yards, 13 touchdowns (18.6 yards per touch)

I mean: LOLLL

When I am setting up my draft list, Gibson is the guy I am very clear on who I take over him, and behind him. I don't wanna miss out on a WR1 in Pittman or Edwards, but KJ Hamler? Chase Claypool? 2nd round rookie picks rarely have this kind of ceiling without major injury questions.  

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He looks great but that Memphis system seems to produce some video game numbers for the backs. I wonder how much we have to credit their system. Just take a look at this Memphis trio of backs in 2017 and 2018:

Darrell Henderson had 3,584 yards and 36 TDs at 8.9 yards per carry 

Patrick Taylor had 2,400 yards and 32 TDs at 5.4 yards per carry.

Tony Pollard had 1,700 yards and 14 TDs at 7.1 yards per carry. 

That is right, over a 2 year period, the Memphis 3 lead backs racked up 7,684 yards and 82 TDs. 

 

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45 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

He looks great but that Memphis system seems to produce some video game numbers for the backs. I wonder how much we have to credit their system. Just take a look at this Memphis trio of backs in 2017 and 2018:

Darrell Henderson had 3,584 yards and 36 TDs at 8.9 yards per carry 

Patrick Taylor had 2,400 yards and 32 TDs at 5.4 yards per carry.

Tony Pollard had 1,700 yards and 14 TDs at 7.1 yards per carry. 

That is right, over a 2 year period, the Memphis 3 lead backs racked up 7,684 yards and 82 TDs. 

 

They are definitely doing something special there.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

They are definitely doing something special there.

They were. HC Mike Norvell is at FSU now. Can he make this system work in the ACC? 

Also just to add to it we had Anthony Miller go for 3000 yards and 33 TDs in 2016 and 2017. This is even crazier when you consider these players weren't recruited by Norvell. He was only with Memphis from 2016-2019. 

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That SMU game 🤤 I don’t know if SMU’s defense was just horrid but that was a Tyreek Hill-esk performance.

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42 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

They were. HC Mike Norvell is at FSU now. Can he make this system work in the ACC? 

Also just to add to it we had Anthony Miller go for 3000 yards and 33 TDs in 2016 and 2017. This is even crazier when you consider these players weren't recruited by Norvell. He was only with Memphis from 2016-2019. 

Are you sure Norwell is the brainchild here?

Who was their OC?

I think this deserves further investigation.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

Are you sure Norwell is the brainchild here?

Who was their OC?

I think this deserves further investigation.

OC is now the HC I think.

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I found this

Quote

Playcalling is one of the key concerns for the No. 15 Tigers facing No. 12 Penn State on Dec. 28. Norvell was exclusively the Tigers' playcaller for the past three seasons.

 

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Mike Norvell’s TE-inclusive spread offense

Quote

Mike Norvell seems like the next man up to have a shot at a big time job. He’s only been at Memphis for two years now but they went 8-5 (5-3 in AAC play) in year one with an impressive 48-44 victory over Houston in the season finale and then came back to go 10-3 (7-1 in the AAC) and take UCF to the wire in a thrilling 62-55 conference title game defeat.

What’s more, the second year leap came after Notre Dame poached Norvell’s OC Chip Long and proceeded to have a strong bounce back year on offense. The 2017 success saw their new OC Darrell Dickey also get poached, this time by Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Everyone’s already trying to learn Norvell’s offensive methods.

Also some good bits in the article about what makes the scheme effective.

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On 5/4/2020 at 1:22 PM, massraider said:

https://youtu.be/pyZId7w33DQ

Check out the play at 3:47. Bounces/spins off some weak tackles, and has presence of mind to juke a guy that appears in front of him. Amazing.

This play is incredible; breaks tackle, spins, bursts, and runs away.  This is a great situation too because ADP is really old and Guice hasn't played a full season yet.

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2021 forward he should get many more touches than this year. Then again, Guice is injury prone, the ageless Peterson is aging more every day and his long carry of 2019 was 32 yards which Gibson could get while asleep in college.

Got him at pick 37 in IDP league.

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Gibson is an extremely interesting prospect, but he was given more than 10 touches exactly one time at a non P5 school.

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Antonio Gibson, Ke'Shawn Vaughn highlight potential fantasy football rookie sleepers

Excerpt:

Quote

Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Washington Redskins 

Pour one out for Yahoo Sports’ Product Manager, who’s been saddled with setting Gibson’s position eligibility for the upcoming fantasy season. A three-sport athlete in high school, the Georgia native’s athletic profile is brimming with explosive upside. Grinding it out as a receiver in the JUCO ranks, Gibson arrived at Memphis in 2018 where he played both RB and WR. In his final year as a Tiger, the hybrid talent finished with 38 receptions (for 735 yards and 8 TDs) and 33 rushing attempts (for 369 yards and 4 TDs). 

While he primarily lined up as a receiver in college, it’s expected that Gibson will contribute largely as a running back in Washington. In fact, Ron Rivera recently compared Gibson’s skill set to Christian McCaffrey’s, citing both players’ exceptional versatility. There’s no denying that Gibson is an electric player in possession of mind-bending elusiveness, contact balance, and big-play ability. After all, per Eric Edholm, this is a talent who scored 14 touchdowns on only 77 offensive touches. But he’s also a raw talent whose game is in need of refinement and patience.

Right now Washington’s backfield is expected to be led by a 35-year-old and a guy who’s only made it onto the field for a total of five regular-season games. That means Gibson is going to get some run. He won’t have consistent value in redraft just yet, but he will make some folks a bundle of money in DFS at various points throughout the winter. Heck, he may even be worth a late-round flier in Best Ball. Gibson has homerun potential and a coach that believes in him … and that usually amounts to something. Eventually. 

 

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3 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Hype is kinda insane now IMO. No longer any kind of value 

agreed, it sucks too. Maybe Guice becomes a better buy now 

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Posted (edited)

Just went at the 2.02 in a draft that started today.

I just took him at the 2.07 in a recent draft. My only share so far. And I thought the 2.07 was a little early. 

Edited by Denver724

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I was hoping to get him at 26, but now I'm thinking I may have to take him at 13.

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Wow, early second is some high-risk projection given this class of wide receivers. 

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6 hours ago, rockaction said:

Wow, early second is some high-risk projection given this class of wide receivers. 

Exactly. Early second means you have people taking an atypical RB prospect over WRs like Higgins, Aiyuk, Mims, etc. Actually makes me glad I own Bryce Love in one league.

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I find it hard to believe there are people more excited about him than I am, and even I think if you are taking him with guys like Aiyuk and Shenault (two players I would put on a potential bust list) available, you are really taking a chance. 

Since no asked, I'll tell ya:  The minute my best options are Macfarland/Hamler/Claypool, I'm pounding the pick.  Macfarland I like a lot, and would take him next, but you are really drafting for '21 situation/Connor injury.  

But passing on a Mims (could easily be best WR in this draft) for Gibson seems like you're getting caught up.  

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29 minutes ago, massraider said:

I find it hard to believe there are people more excited about him than I am, and even I think if you are taking him with guys like Aiyuk and Shenault (two players I would put on a potential bust list) available, you are really taking a chance. 

Since no asked, I'll tell ya:  The minute my best options are Macfarland/Hamler/Claypool, I'm pounding the pick.  Macfarland I like a lot, and would take him next, but you are really drafting for '21 situation/Connor injury.  

But passing on a Mims (could easily be best WR in this draft) for Gibson seems like you're getting caught up.  

I like him and took him in one league but good advice here. Think you have to wait until after that Aiyuk, Shenault, Higgins, Mims tier. I’m taking him before the next tier of WRs and any of the RBs outside the top 5 though. 

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5 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

I like him and took him in one league but good advice here. Think you have to wait until after that Aiyuk, Shenault, Higgins, Mims tier. I’m taking him before the next tier of WRs and any of the RBs outside the top 5 though. 

The ONLY player I would think about is Macfarland. I really like his highlights and profile. Physically, he's what I think good NFL/fantasy backs look like.  

I know I read some maturity questions, and after Connor leaves (if he does) always a very real possibility they replace Connor with a good back. Connor could also easily re-sign, and control short yardage, and RBBC carries. If you own Connor, it's a much easier choice.

 

The Gibson hype is clearly jumping the shark, but I think it's fair to say he probably has a decent floor. In PPR, the change of pace back, if he's getting enough targets, is worthy of a flex start. Once you get beyond McLaurin, sure seems like the pass-catching back here could get a lot of work. Gibson could get 5-7 carries a game, and be a great flex option very week. And he could be a bit more:

Quote

Player A - 226 lbs - 4.39 forty - 17 bench reps - 36 vert - 123 broad

Player B - 228 lbs - 4.39 forty - 16 bench reps - 35 vert - 118 broad

The first one is Jonathan Taylor. The second is Antonio Gibson.

Quote

Mike Renner

@PFF_Mike

Antonio Gibson broke 33 tackles on 77 career touches at Memphis and ran a 4.39 at the combine. He could legitimately be the best RB in this class but we just didn't get to see him

He had 12 TDs on 77 touches last year.

It's a fun complaint: "Yeah, we would have liked to see more from him, but his opportunities were limited because he kept scoring TDs too soon."

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Quote

Redskins OC Scott Turner said he will need to creatively get the ball to Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic and Steven Sims.

"You want to be as unpredictable as possible," Turner explained. "Guys that are able to do more things give you more options." Three might be too many players who need touches manufactured for them on a weekly basis. Specifically on Gibson, the Redskins continue to mention him as a running back, but Turner noted Gibson spent 80-percent of his time at Memphis as a receiver - a position of weakness for Washington. Sims and Gibson absolutely have big-play upside on selective touches, but carving out an every-down role would be preferred.

SOURCE: JP Finlay on Twitter

May 27, 2020, 12:00 PM ET

 

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I got me a share of this kid. Obviously he’s really raw as a rb. But 6 foot almost 230, fast, and with elite receiving skills for a rb is very intriguing. It doesn’t look like he’s just combine fast either- his speed shows on tape. I kinda see some David Johnson in his physical skills. Not the vision in traffic but the power, cuts, and hands. Even a souped up Chris Thompson type of player would be valuable.

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1 hour ago, Cobbler1 said:

I got me a share of this kid. Obviously he’s really raw as a rb. But 6 foot almost 230, fast, and with elite receiving skills for a rb is very intriguing. It doesn’t look like he’s just combine fast either- his speed shows on tape. I kinda see some David Johnson in his physical skills. Not the vision in traffic but the power, cuts, and hands. Even a souped up Chris Thompson type of player would be valuable.

I suspect Gibson will get better as a pure runner & he's pretty good right now.

Few RBs have his measurables & the receiving ability is a huge bonus.

Monster ceiling.

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What an interesting risk reward play this guy is. You can get him somewhere in the 2nd round and he could just win your league for you or be pretty much useless. What pick does that become viable in your opinion?

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On 5/13/2020 at 6:09 AM, tombonneau said:

Exactly. Early second means you have people taking an atypical RB prospect over WRs like Higgins, Aiyuk, Mims, etc. Actually makes me glad I own Bryce Love in one league.

Down and distance (so to speak) come into play.  What if you have a rb-weak team... or are already loaded with young "potential stud" wrs?  What if drank some of the koolaid and you see that his current adp is well before your next pick?  I agree that early second is early, but I personally don't think it is too early depending upon your down and distance situation.

I believe I am the 2.02 pick mentioned earlier in the thread.  :)

 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

What an interesting risk reward play this guy is. You can get him somewhere in the 2nd round and he could just win your league for you or be pretty much useless. What pick does that become viable in your opinion?

This is where I am at IHEARTFF. Come second round I don't want guys that can just be contributors (looking for upside) so I am pretty risk tolerant. I like Gibson and Duvernay a lot and probably would feel comfortable taking them anywhere in the 2nd if available. I am okay striking out on that pick unless someone slips that I feel warranted a first round pick. 

Edited by King of the Jungle

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Phantom Knight said:

Down and distance (so to speak) come into play.  What if you have a rb-weak team... or are already loaded with young "potential stud" wrs?  What if drank some of the koolaid and you see that his current adp is well before your next pick?  I agree that early second is early, but I personally don't think it is too early depending upon your down and distance situation.

I believe I am the 2.02 pick mentioned earlier in the thread.  :)

It certainly depends on your situation. It depends on roster makeup, win-now or rebuild, etc. In a vacuum, that's a really high pick to use on him with some of the more pedigreed receivers that were likely available. I'm not knockin' it, though. He's a fascinating guy and I tried to get him for a two as a part of a deal, but the owner balked a bit, so I wanted the original deal to go through and kept it as is. But in iso, it was a second rounder for Gibson, which he didn't want to take. 

He went at 3.04 in ours in early May. You'd never see him around now there.  

Edited by Encumbrance

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May 1 draft 12 team SF IDP
3.11 (35) Gibson

May 13 draft 28 team contract IDP
2.05 (34) Gibson

May 18 draft 12 team SF IDP
2.07 (19) Gibson

I agree his value seems to be climbing. 

My only remaining draft is a 12 team IDP league that starts fairly late, will open for waivers this month and draft early August. Gibson is very intriguing for me in that one with a truckload of injury-plagued names as my RB2 behind CMC. Kerryon, Breida, and (more importantly for me) Guice & Love. I see my 1.12 as too early since there are so many good WR options plus Chase Young and maybe Queen/Simmons. By the time this league drafts the hype train will probably be full steam and I won't have a legit chance at 2.12. Might be best for me since not landing the 3rd of 4 pieces in that backfield will be a blessing? I won't pass if he falls to that 2.12, though. I like locking up a full backfield when able since it's a 55 man roster. 

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Wound up with this guy sort of by accident in a dynasty rookie auction.  Trying to talk myself into the upside but it feels like a long shot.

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Part of why his draft stock may be rising is the growing awareness of how open the WA backfield situation is. Yes, they have tons of talented guys but the best are either quite old or have major injury questions.  So if Gibson is the guy some think he is, he could potentially grab that job and also catch a ton of passes.  I put the odds of that around 10% but the high celing is what is driving his value right now.

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I am not seeing any indication of Gibsons ADP rising recently.

According to the polls he went at 2.10 in standard and PPR formats. He went at 2.11 in the 2 QB and TE premium polls.

ADP in May was 2.10 also and that is what it is for June so far as well. So I am not seeing his value rising from any of these things.

Every draft is unique, so you need to know your league. As discussed earlier in the thread 2.04 is where I would start considering him.

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2 hours ago, The Man With No Name said:

PPR value is much higher than standard i think. Wouldn't surprise me if he gets 70 receptions as a rookie with fewer carries.

70 receptions seems very optimistic to me.

Since 2000 these are the RB who had 50 receptions or more in their rookie seasons:

LaDanian Tomlinson 74 targets 59 receptions.

Reggie Bush 121 targets 88 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey 113 targets 80 receptions.

Tariik Cohen 71 targets 53 receptions.

Duke Johnson 74 targets 61 receptions.

Guivanni Bernard 71 targets 56 receptions.

Thats it. I think 70 targets could be in the cards but not 70 receptions.

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17 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

70 receptions seems very optimistic to me.

Since 2000 these are the RB who had 50 receptions or more in their rookie seasons:

LaDanian Tomlinson 74 targets 59 receptions.

Reggie Bush 121 targets 88 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey 113 targets 80 receptions.

Tariik Cohen 71 targets 53 receptions.

Duke Johnson 74 targets 61 receptions.

Guivanni Bernard 71 targets 56 receptions.

Thats it. I think 70 targets could be in the cards but not 70 receptions.

Ok but are Tarik Cohen and Duke Johnson more talented than Gibson? I don't think so.  That being said, the 70 receptions would be high end ceiling production is not likely--but it certainly is possible.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, az_prof said:

Ok but are Tarik Cohen and Duke Johnson more talented than Gibson? I don't think so.  That being said, the 70 receptions would be high end ceiling production is not likely--but it certainly is possible.

Both of those backs are extremely talented. Duke Johnson is Miami’s all-time leading rusher, Tarik Cohen had a 40.8% collegiate dominator. I’m a big fan of Gibson but to scoff at those two backs as being inferior, especially as a prospect, is ignorant.

ETA: Maybe you should be more upset with yourself for not understanding what a ludicrous number 70 receptions is instead of trying to detract from players spuriously.

Edited by Iceman03

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22 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

70 receptions seems very optimistic to me.

Since 2000 these are the RB who had 50 receptions or more in their rookie seasons:

LaDanian Tomlinson 74 targets 59 receptions.

Reggie Bush 121 targets 88 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey 113 targets 80 receptions.

Tariik Cohen 71 targets 53 receptions.

Duke Johnson 74 targets 61 receptions.

Guivanni Bernard 71 targets 56 receptions.

Thats it. I think 70 targets could be in the cards but not 70 receptions.

Miles Sanders too, but shhhhh also. 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, az_prof said:

Ok but are Tarik Cohen and Duke Johnson more talented than Gibson? I don't think so.  That being said, the 70 receptions would be high end ceiling production is not likely--but it certainly is possible.

For me its not really a question of how talented the players are compared to each other but a question about a rookie RB opportunity to catch passes.

I think it helps that the coaching staff is the same as the staff that gave McCaffrey 113 targets as a rookie but I think the competition is too crowded for Gibson to have that many snaps and opportunities.

That said receptions to RB has been going up in recent years, I was more conservative about this possibility before McCaffrey than I am now.

Good catch Terpman22 as I missed Sanders reaching the 50 reception threshold last year. I think that puts Sanders in good company as far as his ability as a receiver goes.

ETA missing Barkleys rookie season from that list as well.

Edited by Biabreakable
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