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I don't think there will be football for a couple of years (1 Viewer)

The doom and gloom talk is happening for a couple reasons. 1) We are in the thick of the pandemic as we speak. 2) There is little reliable information at the moment. 3) MSM is 24 hour Coronavirus news.

I think by this summer we will know a lot more information about this virus.  We have experts around the world working on therapies to combat symptoms.  We will have more testing available.  We will have more widespread antibody tests. We will have a much bigger sample size of data  to be able to create much better models. My biggest fear is a second wave. That being said, I think we will be way more prepared to deal with it when it comes. .

I think there will be football. The more I learn about this virus the better I feel about it. I don't think a player testing positive will mean that a team is done. By then they should be able to determine who has the antibodies. I think this will be figured out before the season starts. I think they will be able to determine who may have been infected. Teams may have to employee bigger practice squads.  Teams may conduct practices in a more compartmentalized  way. Bottomline, I think the NFL is gonna figure it out. There is too much money at stake. I'm hoping we find out that this virus isn't nearly as deadly as we once thought. I get it that there are a lot of deaths. It makes sense in places like NY where people cram into subways and elevators etc. It makes sense that this is affecting the elderly and people with health issues. Unfortunately, those folks are gonna have play it more safe for a while. I think those who are not in the high risk group will be able to get back to work including athletes. We are going to have to work around this at some point. 

 
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Wooters said:
I highly doubt there is football this year.  I think they will want to play in front of empty stadiums, but it's too early.  They know it.  All it takes is 1 player from 1 team to get COVID, and that entire TEAM is done.  They all get tested and can't be around anyone for freaking 2 weeks, because that's how long the incubation period can be.  Not only that, but the last team that they played will also be off-limits, tested, and quarantined for 2 weeks.  1 player, on 1 team, would shut down the season.  I don't think the majority of people in this thread understand the actual situation, and the public outcry if it happened. 

The 2020 NFL season may start, but it'll never finish.
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This is what I’ve been thinking as well.  As long as we’re at a point where you have to quarantine for two weeks if you test positive or if you’ve been exposed to someone who has, I don’t see how you have a season. All it takes is one person to test positive and you have to shut it down. 

 
Don't think we'll be playing football this year. Not until they have a vaccine. I wouldn't want to be lining up first for a vaccine they rushed through testing either........

 
Pipes said:
I think all college sports are going to have an issue.  Universities will be afraid of exposing themselves to lawsuits and the whole amateur athletic thing.  I hope I’m wrong.
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I agree with you and what will be interesting is how the NFL gets it's labor if college football season is just canceled at many school(if not all of them). Some conferences have huge TV contracts to protect, but not every college team does.

NFL folks were already gripping because they couldn't see a pro-day and conduct their own physical and missed what, a MONTH of the normal process. Now just imagine you can give a player a physical and make him run a 40...... but you haven't actually seen the guy play football for a year and a half.

 
The country, and the world, cannot stay closed for 6 months.  Virus or no virus.  There will absolutely be football this season.

 
need2know said:
Vaccine prob won't even work.  We will have football.   Hell stuff is already starting to open up
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Stuff that involves 60 people rolling around on top of each other for 2 hours and then flying to a new city to do it again?It’s one thing to open a barber shop where everyone has on masks and you can limit it to x amount of people in the space at a time. Football is a totally different game. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Stuff that involves 60 people rolling around on top of each other for 2 hours and then flying to a new city to do it again?It’s one thing to open a barber shop where everyone has on masks and you can limit it to x amount of people in the space at a time. Football is a totally different game. 
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If they tested all the players before every game would that be enough?

 
Ilov80s said:
The big long term question is high school and amateur sports. Those really could be done for 2 years. That causes quite a talent gap in pro sports down the road. 
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This.  I have little doubt we'll see some sort of NFL and other professional sports at some point in 2020.  Like others have said we can't stay closed forever.  College Football/Athletics is completely different.  While the power 5 schools have TV contracts they still rely on the gate revenue to a much larger degree than the NFL and I sincerely doubt 110K will be packing Ann Arbor anytime soon.  And even with the gate revenue most University's don't have much room from being in the black to going into the red so University's will lose millions without gate revenues.  Unless of course they cut some non revenue producing sports which I suppose could happen but then you have the whole title IX thing to deal with.  This really isn't the issue though the issue is are all of the University Presidents going to want to expose their students?  These Presidents are responsible for 20,000 - 40,000 students.  That's even if the students are back in the classroom this fall. That is yet to be determined.

Look I'm not doom and gloom in fact I'm in the camp to start opening things up.  As soon as restaurants are open I'm there.  I can't wait to go to a Brewers game and will be at one as soon as I'm allowed.  But I'm a realist and I think we're screwed out of non-professional sports for a long, long time.  Anything short of some serious advancements in treatments of this disease (I think an effective vaccine is a pipe dream for this thing) there will be no amateur sports for quite a while.

 
need2know said:
If they tested all the players before every game would that be enough?
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So the Packers play the Vikings and 10 guys for each team test positive.  So they are out for 2 weeks.  Well the whole team was exposed so there are some players who tested negative, showing no symptoms but are carriers since the tests aren't 100% effect.  The play the Lions and Bears respectively next week so now those 2 teams have been exposed and will have players test positive the following week....Now multiply this as there are 16 games per week.  This is a realistic scenario that will likely happen especially if we have a 2nd wave this fall like many of the "experts" suggest.  I really want to see NFL football but they have a lot to sort out before we see a game.  Hopefully the NBA will finish up over the summer and they can be the test case to see how this goes.

 
Pipes said:
So the Packers play the Vikings and 10 guys for each team test positive.  So they are out for 2 weeks.  Well the whole team was exposed so there are some players who tested negative, showing no symptoms but are carriers since the tests aren't 100% effect.  The play the Lions and Bears respectively next week so now those 2 teams have been exposed and will have players test positive the following week....Now multiply this as there are 16 games per week.  This is a realistic scenario that will likely happen especially if we have a 2nd wave this fall like many of the "experts" suggest.  I really want to see NFL football but they have a lot to sort out before we see a game.  Hopefully the NBA will finish up over the summer and they can be the test case to see how this goes.
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i hear you but thats assuming the tests suck

 
need2know said:
i hear you but thats assuming the tests suck
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The good news is when Rudy Gobert tested positive I think Donovan Mitchell was the only other player that did as well and the Jazz had just played 3 games in a 4/5 day period.  So you'd think a bunch more players would've tested positive because that was well within the 14 day window.  Maybe this isn't as contagious as we think...fingers crossed.

 
need2know said:
i hear you but thats assuming the tests suck
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I think it's a fair to assume the tests will not be able to detect it in certain cases, they still can't reliably test aids.  Says a negative test for aids doesnt mean you dont have aids, and how long has aids been around?

 
Wooters said:
I highly doubt there is football this year.  I think they will want to play in front of empty stadiums, but it's too early.  They know it.  All it takes is 1 player from 1 team to get COVID, and that entire TEAM is done.  They all get tested and can't be around anyone for freaking 2 weeks, because that's how long the incubation period can be.  Not only that, but the last team that they played will also be off-limits, tested, and quarantined for 2 weeks.  1 player, on 1 team, would shut down the season.  I don't think the majority of people in this thread understand the actual situation, and the public outcry if it happened. 

The 2020 NFL season may start, but it'll never finish.
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Totally agree with the statement "it may start but it'll never finish" ....that's why I am proposing in my H2H league a one year, just total points, for payouts when the season ends up cancelled.  Now if somehow the season plays itself out then after 13 weeks we cut down to top 6 PF and reset scores and play those 6 for total points or until they possibly suspend,  

 
need2know said:
If they tested all the players before every game would that be enough?
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That has to be the plan and I really hope it works because it would suck to have no football this fall. The testing needs to be widely available and easy to get access to. It's hard to justify the NFL having plenty of fast working tests for 3000 players, coaches, refs, etc. each week but not have tests readily available for people feeling sick, cops, food service workers. I think the key to beating this is testing. We need a #### ton of reliable quick tests.

 
Whatever does end up happening, I don't see any way (barring a medical breakthrough) that the schedule and venues remain intact. Would the NFL try something like having only 8 venues, each division gets their own venue? The four teams play each other three (or four) times each, with a bye week thrown in. Nine (or twelve) week regular season and have all playoff games at one venue, including the Super Bowl. They could play games every day/night of the week, each division would have their own day/night (AFC East plays two games every Monday, AFC North plays two games on Tuesday, etc.), with two divisions having their games on Sunday. Or they could do it regionally, which might make more sense. West teams all play at venues in the west, east teams in the east, midwest in the midwest. Just spitballing here, and I'm sure this idea is pretty dumb, but I'm just trying to see how the NFL is going to approach having some sort of season.

 
Ilov80s said:
That has to be the plan and I really hope it works because it would suck to have no football this fall. The testing needs to be widely available and easy to get access to. It's hard to justify the NFL having plenty of fast working tests for 3000 players, coaches, refs, etc. each week but not have tests readily available for people feeling sick, cops, food service workers. I think the key to beating this is testing. We need a #### ton of reliable quick tests.
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i know they are working on test kits for everyone to be able to test from home.  wonder how close they really are and how accurate it is

 
Well, say they do play.     He'll, guys that do use a mouthpiece are pulling it out of their mouth every play.    It's transmitted through saliva, right?    Hands touching the ball.   Saliva spit on the ground, in the turf, getting on uniforms.   Every stadium is a breeding ground for this pandemic then.

I just don't know if the players union is gonna allow it.   Major point of contention for player health.

Look, I want football just as much as the next guy.   Heck, I hope my kid plays in his junior high season, but i just dont see it happening.

Sorry to be negative Nancy on it...there are just too many unknowns and variables here.

What if a player gets sick and dies?

 
domvin said:
Well, say they do play.     He'll, guys that do use a mouthpiece are pulling it out of their mouth every play.    It's transmitted through saliva, right?    Hands touching the ball.   Saliva spit on the ground, in the turf, getting on uniforms.   Every stadium is a breeding ground for this pandemic then.

I just don't know if the players union is gonna allow it.   Major point of contention for player health.

Look, I want football just as much as the next guy.   Heck, I hope my kid plays in his junior high season, but i just dont see it happening.

Sorry to be negative Nancy on it...there are just too many unknowns and variables here.

What if a player gets sick and dies?
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This is why we won't see college sports for a long time. College Presidents won't want to open their schools up to that kind of liability. 

 
need2know said:
If they tested all the players before every game would that be enough?
Click to expand...
1st, have to have enough of a supply of tests that this is not pre-empting anyone in the public from getting 2nd, there's the issue of false negative, which, in one study was close to 15%.
They also have to be in compliance with the individual state's regulations and it wouldn't be a level playing field to have some play out-of-state.
Maybe there will be a workable way to play at least some of the 2020 season, but I'm not that optimistic as of now.

 
You guys are all missing the obvious...…...they play in self contained suits like the people in the movie Outbreak.  It becomes the new uniforms and are just different colors.  All self contained and no biological contact.  Problem solved......hahhaha

 
Mystery Achiever said:
They also have to be in compliance with the individual state's regulations and it wouldn't be a level playing field to have some play out-of-state.
 
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I think it was Schefter making this point a couple days ago.   Was basically saying that it would have to be a level playing field when it comes to opening team facilities and training camps, but places like texas that don't have as bad of an issue will most likely be able to open up sooner than NY/NJ.   so they will have to figure out a way to handle that as well

 
Pipes said:
The good news is when Rudy Gobert tested positive I think Donovan Mitchell was the only other player that did as well and the Jazz had just played 3 games in a 4/5 day period.  So you'd think a bunch more players would've tested positive because that was well within the 14 day window.  Maybe this isn't as contagious as we think...fingers crossed.
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It's not. Sneeze and cough into your elbow. Wash your hands before you eat. Don't put your fingers in your mouth. We have a vaccine for the flu and 3,000,000 Americans get it every year. 35,000 people in America die from it every year. No one is going to die from covid unless they already have a compromised immune system. The survival rate for covid worldwide without a vaccine is 98%, the flu is 99%.

 
you’d think between the NFL and the gambling industry they’d be funding their own research.

no fan solution would be to have 60k devices sitting in the seats tied in via zoom. That should create enough annoying background noise to suffice

 
Mark Football said:
It's not. Sneeze and cough into your elbow. Wash your hands before you eat. Don't put your fingers in your mouth. We have a vaccine for the flu and 3,000,000 Americans get it every year. 35,000 people in America die from it every year. No one is going to die from covid unless they already have a compromised immune system. The survival rate for covid worldwide without a vaccine is 98%, the flu is 99%.
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This was a good read except that most of it is glaringly inaccurate. 

 
Id never let them give me a Covid Vaccine Via Good Ole Billy Gates trying to save us from Germs... This over-hyped fear mongering is clearly working....my favorite is MSM always having a Graphic of the Covid-19... 

I hate this stupid lockdown... I was hooping with a bunch of LA Chargers... heard Keenan speak his mind on the QB situation... and became friends with Derwin James... ####..we went from playing ball 3 days a week to this crap... no more hoax 

 
oswizzle said:
Everything will be fine..... most of us had this virus in January ... soon enough testing will prove herd immunity and we can get our scheduled prorgrams/production back to full speed ... 
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fer shizzle oswizzle 

🤞

 
oswizzle said:
Id never let them give me a Covid Vaccine Via Good Ole Billy Gates trying to save us from Germs... This over-hyped fear mongering is clearly working....my favorite is MSM always having a Graphic of the Covid-19... 
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Yeah pretty soon news stations are just going to have running graphics all the time of who's dying from whatever. Nobody will ever go outside again. 

 
oswizzle said:
Everything will be fine..... most of us had this virus in January ... soon enough testing will prove herd immunity and we can get our scheduled prorgrams/production back to full speed ... 
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That sure would be nice, and the thought crossed my mind when this first started breaking out, as my family did get sick this winter. But, then I remembered we did actually take my youngest in and he tested positive for Influenza.

Also, if this was going around back then there would have been a lot of hospitalizations/deaths. I can't think of a reason those would have been near 0% at this hypothesized wave 1 as compared to this March/April time-frame.

 
The NFL will figure it out on way or another. Maybe they will invent a breathable face shield or something like it. If they expect a second wave in the fall maybe they push the season back to December or January. There is going to be an outside of the box solution. Maybe they isolate different team positions during the week to mitigate any potential midweek outbreaks. Also, when they do start playing it will presumably be during a time when the numbers are way down. 

Cavemen used to venture out even though there was the threat of getting eaten by a T rex. I think we are all just gonna have to deal with a little extra risk going forward. 

 
We'll find out who really governs. Whether or not we're a plutocracy or whether real governmental entities reign supreme. Should be interesting and the dawning of new American understanding, that's for sure. 

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
That sure would be nice, and the thought crossed my mind when this first started breaking out, as my family did get sick this winter. But, then I remembered we did actually take my youngest in and he tested positive for Influenza.

Also, if this was going around back then there would have been a lot of hospitalizations/deaths. I can't think of a reason those would have been near 0% at this hypothesized wave 1 as compared to this March/April time-frame.
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Excellent point.

Data is starting to show that many more people have been exposed to this virus and didn't have symptoms or had very mild symptoms. Hopefully by football season we will be in that herd immunity range. This will require opening things up sooner than later.

 
I'm particularly concerned about the effects of a cancelled season, shortened season (either at the end, or beginning, or some delay in the middle), and how it will effect a number of fantasy league formats. I am commissioner of a consortium of 96 teams, 8 individual 12-team leagues, that disbands after the 2020 jackpot season. We have been building to this season since our startup in 2015 and now we may have to completely improvise the format on the fly. Right now we really don't have any good backup plans for what we might do if the season crashes in any number of ways. If everything gets pushed to 2021, there will presumably be a whole new crop of rookies coming into the league. Can you even imagine trying to make sense of a 2021 fantasy landscape if 2020 gets skipped. I don't think it will. I'd pay $100 to watch ####ty football in empty stadiums. There is simply too much money for them not to try, as long as there is widespread testing. I hope. I know I need to get the F back to work myself.

In the $350 FPC leagues, and the Main Event, the regular season is weeks 1-11, with a special playoff format for weeks 12-13, and another for the big dance shootout weeks 14-16. Will these kinds of contests be amended? I won a bunch of entry credits into these last year, and am not sure what to do with them. I really, really want to cash a couple of them in and draft right now, to try and take advantage (if possible) of early offseason trends in ADP and values I see, etc. My two top teams from that contest last year were drafted in May and June. But I don't want to touch anything like that right now. 

We will of course not have good answers for any of this for some time, and entities like FFPC and others have to try and plan as though the show will go on, but right now the lack of solid contingencies to fantasy formats is scary to me.

 
Mongidig said:
Excellent point.

Data is starting to show that many more people have been exposed to this virus and didn't have symptoms or had very mild symptoms. Hopefully by football season we will be in that herd immunity range. This will require opening things up sooner than later.
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No one who studies epidemiology thinks we will be in herd immunity range by September.

One dynamic that's relevant to the NFL is that everyone shares the TV revenue, but the stadium revenue goes to the teams. So the teams with big stadium investments like the Cowboys and the Raiduhs have a lot more incentive to push for home games with spectators than parasites like the Jaguars do.

 
Mongidig said:
Excellent point.

Data is starting to show that many more people have been exposed to this virus and didn't have symptoms or had very mild symptoms. Hopefully by football season we will be in that herd immunity range. This will require opening things up sooner than later.
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Yeah just last week a study of an antibody test in LA County showed the virus was 55 times more widespread than we thought.

 
barackdhouse said:
I'm particularly concerned about the effects of a cancelled season, shortened season (either at the end, or beginning, or some delay in the middle), and how it will effect a number of fantasy league formats. I am commissioner of a consortium of 96 teams, 8 individual 12-team leagues, that disbands after the 2020 jackpot season. We have been building to this season since our startup in 2015 and now we may have to completely improvise the format on the fly. Right now we really don't have any good backup plans for what we might do if the season crashes in any number of ways. If everything gets pushed to 2021, there will presumably be a whole new crop of rookies coming into the league. Can you even imagine trying to make sense of a 2021 fantasy landscape if 2020 gets skipped. I don't think it will. I'd pay $100 to watch ####ty football in empty stadiums. There is simply too much money for them not to try, as long as there is widespread testing. I hope. I know I need to get the F back to work myself.

In the $350 FPC leagues, and the Main Event, the regular season is weeks 1-11, with a special playoff format for weeks 12-13, and another for the big dance shootout weeks 14-16. Will these kinds of contests be amended? I won a bunch of entry credits into these last year, and am not sure what to do with them. I really, really want to cash a couple of them in and draft right now, to try and take advantage (if possible) of early offseason trends in ADP and values I see, etc. My two top teams from that contest last year were drafted in May and June. But I don't want to touch anything like that right now. 

We will of course not have good answers for any of this for some time, and entities like FFPC and others have to try and plan as though the show will go on, but right now the lack of solid contingencies to fantasy formats is scary to me.
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Right now I would treat online fantasy sites like online poker sites. Buyer beware. I certainly wouldn't join any leagues right now. If things go bad with the season I don't know how solvent these companies will be. They have already lost out on baseball. I don't know how they are handling other sports. I suppose people getting in now is helping them. I'm not gonna be one of them.

 
Mongidig said:
Right now I would treat online fantasy sites like online poker sites. Buyer beware. I certainly wouldn't join any leagues right now. If things go bad with the season I don't know how solvent these companies will be. They have already lost out on baseball. I don't know how they are handling other sports. I suppose people getting in now is helping them. I'm not gonna be one of them.
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Yeah I know. But I'm already bought in. I can't cash out the entry credits I won. And the other league with the jackpot has $23k sitting in escrow for us to compete for this year. It can just sit there but if the season is only 10 weeks, for example, I suppose we'll just call that the final season and any complaining can be duly noted. 

 
CalBear said:
No one who studies epidemiology thinks we will be in herd immunity range by September.

One dynamic that's relevant to the NFL is that everyone shares the TV revenue, but the stadium revenue goes to the teams. So the teams with big stadium investments like the Cowboys and the Raiduhs have a lot more incentive to push for home games with spectators than parasites like the Jaguars do.
Click to expand...
Your right! Herd immunity isn't going to happen in the US anytime soon especially given the lockdowns. There is no guarantee there will be immunity from this. There is the possibility that some people do already have some protection from this virus as a result from contacting other versions of corona. None of this is known for sure just yet. 

Hopefully we get some better news as more data is collected. 

 
barackdhouse said:
Yeah just last week a study of an antibody test in LA County showed the virus was 55 times more widespread than we thought.
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Just a word of caution on this - the researchers point out that even 55x higher means only about 5% of the population in the sample has been infected, which means if you assume some level of immunity for the infected and recovered, the virus still can spread quite a lot.

We're also seeing vastly different antibody testing results from places like California, New York and Florida.  I don't know what this means, but I'm guessing that there's more to the story.

 
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CalBear said:
One dynamic that's relevant to the NFL is that everyone shares the TV revenue, but the stadium revenue goes to the teams. So the teams with big stadium investments like the Cowboys and the Raiduhs have a lot more incentive to push for home games with spectators than parasites like the Jaguars do.
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I would also think the international games would be rescheduled here somewhere, whether there are fans or not.

 
Currently, the data shows three types of people are truly at risk:

1) People with breathing problems will have an even harder time breathing.

2) People with heart problems will have a hard time because being really sick is quite taxing on the system.

3) People with an immunodeficiency disorder are seeing their immune systems overreact, going into hyper drive.

The third group appears to be the occasions where seemingly healthy people need to be hospitalized. Professional (and college) athletes basically are not in group 1 or 2. They may rarely be in group 3. Hopefully those who are already realize it and take the extra precautions.

Then there is everyone else. Granted, this is the preliminary analysis of the data. It also explains why more people have had it than realized. Once we have the level of confidence needed, things are going to be opening up. People can return to their livelihood, such as professional athletics. Precautions will still be need to protect those at most risk. That means they don't attend an NFL game. I have no idea how overly cautious universities are going to be. They have more people in the student body in all three categories.

Life is not risk free. It is about understanding the risks and our risk tolerance. The longer this goes, the greater our understanding, and the higher our tolerance to the risks. Both move in the direction of opening things up.

[Granted, the initial indications may be born out to be incorrect.]

 
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