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I don't think there will be football for a couple of years

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Currently, the data shows three types of people are truly at risk:

1) People with breathing problems will have an even harder time breathing.

2) People with heart problems will have a hard time because being really sick is quite taxing on the system.

3) People with an immunodeficiency disorder are seeing their immune systems overreact, going into hyper drive.

The third group appears to be the occasions where seemingly healthy people need to be hospitalized. Professional (and college) athletes basically are not in group 1 or 2. They may rarely be in group 3. Hopefully those who are already realize it and take the extra precautions.

Then there is everyone else. Granted, this is the preliminary analysis of the data. It also explains why more people have had it than realized. Once we have the level of confidence needed, things are going to be opening up. People can return to their livelihood, such as professional athletics. Precautions will still be need to protect those at most risk. That means they don't attend an NFL game. I have no idea how overly cautious universities are going to be. They have more people in the student body in all three categories.

Life is not risk free. It is about understanding the risks and our risk tolerance. The longer this goes, the greater our understanding, and the higher our tolerance to the risks. Both move in the direction of opening things up.

[Granted, the initial indications may be born out to be incorrect.]

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sweden didnt shut anything down, France did. It didnt seem to make any difference in either country. I'm optimistic that we will take what we learn as time goes on and apply it, and start to open up venues, such as nfl stadiums.

This seems to be worst on public transportation, yet that's one thing we keep open. it cant survive very long outside. I dont expect Georgia to have some major outbreak. When we see these things, I just hope we learn from them and accept the facts that come from them. 

there's a lot of new information out there you wont get by watching the news. Information that destroys the models that we have been working off of with these policies. I'm optimistic but I realize I am barking up the wrong tree with the crowd in here. Many of you are on the east coast where theres a heavy reliance on public transportation, which is where this is spread the worst. 

If i can get just one person to actually look at the facts we have learned within the last 2 weeks, then that would be wonderful.

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline. 

You really think that shutting things down didn’t make a difference? That lessening human contact doesn’t slow the spread of an infectious virus that is spread from human to human? That’s a very odd take by itself and would seem to be contradictory with your stance on public transportation. What do you think it is about public transportation that spreads it? The engines? It’s obviously the close contact between high numbers of people and the touching of common areas like rails/poles and seats. NFL stadiums also have high numbers of people, rails, and seats. I think and hope the NFL figures it out but I’d be very very surprised, barring a miracle treatment becoming available, if games aren’t played in empty stadiums. 


I would assume that the hospital staff being furloughed are because hospitals are doing less elective procedures. Hospital’s aren’t laying off people who could be used to combat the virus.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sweden didnt shut anything down, France did. It didnt seem to make any difference in either country. I'm optimistic that we will take what we learn as time goes on and apply it, and start to open up venues, such as nfl stadiums.

This seems to be worst on public transportation, yet that's one thing we keep open. it cant survive very long outside. I dont expect Georgia to have some major outbreak. When we see these things, I just hope we learn from them and accept the facts that come from them. 

there's a lot of new information out there you wont get by watching the news. Information that destroys the models that we have been working off of with these policies. I'm optimistic but I realize I am barking up the wrong tree with the crowd in here. Many of you are on the east coast where theres a heavy reliance on public transportation, which is where this is spread the worst. 

If i can get just one person to actually look at the facts we have learned within the last 2 weeks, then that would be wonderful.

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline. 

Remember when I said you're wrong 99.9% of the time when you said compensatory draft picks don't matter by pointing out that all of the successful franchises own the majority of those picks, then you threw a hissy and had me banned for two weeks over it...yeah you're gonna need to ban me again I guess because like I said in that post you are wrong 99.9% of the time.  Mods need to read the ridiculous content before throwing out bans.  This crap he is spewing at this point is dangerous.

Edited by BINGBING
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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sweden didnt shut anything down, France did. It didnt seem to make any difference in either country. I'm optimistic that we will take what we learn as time goes on and apply it, and start to open up venues, such as nfl stadiums.

This seems to be worst on public transportation, yet that's one thing we keep open. it cant survive very long outside. I dont expect Georgia to have some major outbreak. When we see these things, I just hope we learn from them and accept the facts that come from them. 

there's a lot of new information out there you wont get by watching the news. Information that destroys the models that we have been working off of with these policies. I'm optimistic but I realize I am barking up the wrong tree with the crowd in here. Many of you are on the east coast where theres a heavy reliance on public transportation, which is where this is spread the worst. 

If i can get just one person to actually look at the facts we have learned within the last 2 weeks, then that would be wonderful.

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline. 

Not your best take Dr. Dan. I've had my doubts about your medical expertise and to be honest this doesn't help. 

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

I dont have the power to ban. sorry.

You have the power to report, which you did....and you didn't understand how comp picks cycle from year to year.  But yes, tell us more about the virus, Doc.  Tell us it's safe.  SMH.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

No, I dont report people. Must have been someone else tired of your schtick

I have 530 post over a 16 year span on here.  I'm not the guy with a "schtick"...but I sure can see someone who does have one...oh...and you were the last person to view my profile before I got a 2 week ban soooo....

Edited by BINGBING

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I've never claimed to be an expert in infectious disease. 

Cool, what kind of doctor are you then?

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sweden didnt shut anything down, France did. It didnt seem to make any difference in either country. I'm optimistic that we will take what we learn as time goes on and apply it, and start to open up venues, such as nfl stadiums.

This seems to be worst on public transportation, yet that's one thing we keep open. it cant survive very long outside. I dont expect Georgia to have some major outbreak. When we see these things, I just hope we learn from them and accept the facts that come from them. 

there's a lot of new information out there you wont get by watching the news. Information that destroys the models that we have been working off of with these policies. I'm optimistic but I realize I am barking up the wrong tree with the crowd in here. Many of you are on the east coast where theres a heavy reliance on public transportation, which is where this is spread the worst. 

If i can get just one person to actually look at the facts we have learned within the last 2 weeks, then that would be wonderful.

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline. 

Were you "barking up the wrong tree" when you were off about influenza's mortality by an order of magnitude? Or when you wanted to believe a free-market lawyer with no medical or epidemiological training that COVID-19 would be 50-%90% less fatal than the flu? Or in the post you just made, where you asserted that Sweden's lack of shutdown "didn't make any difference" despite the fact 10 times as many people have died there compared to Norway. 

No, you weren't "barking up the wrong tree." You were dangerously wrong. 

One in 600 New Yorkers has already died. By the time this is over it could be one in 100. And there's nothing protecting the rest of the country from it becoming that bad, except the shelter-in-place orders.

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7 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

we are. 

 

I’ll rephrase. Hospitals in affected areas are not furloughing staff who can treat coronavirus. I could see across the board cuts/reductions in places that haven’t been hit yet but are suffering the same lack of business from the various shelter in place orders. Regardless it demonstrates nothing about the severity of the outbreak. Was that your point? That hospitals suffering economically as well somehow means the coronavirus isn’t bad?

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Fellas- there’s like 8 other threads going on in the FFA and PSF arguing these same points.  Can we keep it out of this one?  Please and thank you.  👍

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14 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sweden didnt shut anything down, France did. It didnt seem to make any difference in either country. I'm optimistic that we will take what we learn as time goes on and apply it, and start to open up venues, such as nfl stadiums.

This seems to be worst on public transportation, yet that's one thing we keep open. it cant survive very long outside. I dont expect Georgia to have some major outbreak. When we see these things, I just hope we learn from them and accept the facts that come from them. 

there's a lot of new information out there you wont get by watching the news. Information that destroys the models that we have been working off of with these policies. I'm optimistic but I realize I am barking up the wrong tree with the crowd in here. Many of you are on the east coast where theres a heavy reliance on public transportation, which is where this is spread the worst. 

If i can get just one person to actually look at the facts we have learned within the last 2 weeks, then that would be wonderful.

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline. 

These claims are simply not informed by the actual data.  You're missing a key point here:  there's a difference between the number of people who have tested positive and the actual number of people with the virus.

The surest way to not find anyone with the virus is to not test them.  Likewise, the more extensive testing is, two things are going to result

  1. A higher volume of people are going to test positive
  2. A more accurate picture of the infection rate and spread is going to emerge.

For example, here's data as of 4/27.

New York (state)
Population:  19.45 million
Total tests:  826,095
Rate of testing:  1 in 23 people tested

Massachusetts
Population:  6.98 million
Total tests:  244,887
Rate of testing:  1 in 28 people tested

Georgia
Population:  10.62 million
Total tests:  127,169
Rate of testing:  1 in 83 people tested

Florida
Population:  21.48 million
Total tests:  356,463
Rate of testing:  1 in 60 people tested

Now, I don't mean to say this is a hard and fast rule of East Coast vs. South.  For example, Louisiana is testing 1 in 31 people, while Pennsylvania is testing 1 in 60 people.  The point is, we will never know how bad the spread of the virus is in the present unless we test for it.  Drawing conclusions based on poor data is not the way to go.

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On 4/27/2020 at 7:53 AM, Ilov80s said:
On 4/27/2020 at 6:09 AM, need2know said:

If they tested all the players before every game would that be enough?

That has to be the plan and I really hope it works because it would suck to have no football this fall. The testing needs to be widely available and easy to get access to. It's hard to justify the NFL having plenty of fast working tests for 3000 players, coaches, refs, etc. each week but not have tests readily available for people feeling sick, cops, food service workers. I think the key to beating this is testing. We need a #### ton of reliable quick tests.

Looking forward to checking Rotoworld to see if my backup RB tested positive for the Rona or not, so I know who to start at flex.  😣

Just shut it the f down. 

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19 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sweden didnt shut anything down, France did. It didnt seem to make any difference in either country. I'm optimistic that we will take what we learn as time goes on and apply it, and start to open up venues, such as nfl stadiums.

This seems to be worst on public transportation, yet that's one thing we keep open. it cant survive very long outside. I dont expect Georgia to have some major outbreak. When we see these things, I just hope we learn from them and accept the facts that come from them. 

there's a lot of new information out there you wont get by watching the news. Information that destroys the models that we have been working off of with these policies. I'm optimistic but I realize I am barking up the wrong tree with the crowd in here. Many of you are on the east coast where theres a heavy reliance on public transportation, which is where this is spread the worst. 

If i can get just one person to actually look at the facts we have learned within the last 2 weeks, then that would be wonderful.

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline. 

This is true. Personally, I think this whole virus has been hyperbolized and over-hyped from the beginning. Despite all the cases, the death rate remains incredibly low. Some people are acting like it's the Black Plague back in the 14th century.

That being said, I don't think there will be football this season. We already know the timetable is bound to be screwed up. There's no way training camp will open on schedule this summer, so that immediately sets things back. On the other hand, I also don't think they're going to wait until a vaccine is developed. That can take years and it's never guaranteed that they'll find one, anyway--SARS doesn't have a vaccine, for example. Neither does AIDS, despite killing 40 million people. 

I guess I look at it this way... Wimbledon is cancelled. That's mid-July. The differences between the ATP and the NFL, and their respective sports, can't be more distinct. And if professional tennis cancels an event in which players would be able to maintain six feet from one another at all times, I find it hard to believe training camp, which involves plenty of close, physical contact, will open on schedule. It's possible they just delay the start of the season, but some are expressing concern about a new wave of this in the fall. I think they'll wait.

 

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There will be football this year.  Through more testing we are going to learn that number of people who have or have had the virus is significantly more than the numbers we see reported.  Once we know the true number of those infected the death rate will likely plummet.  We should have been trying to test those with mild or no symptoms not just those that were very ill.  If you only test people that you know are sick and are likely to have the virus you do not know the true number of people infected and the death rate is going to be artificially high because these are the people that are more likely to tragically die from the disease.  We are starting to see that random testing reveals many people have had the virus and recovered.  Also, this virus is a lot more dangerous for certain groups of people.  The death rate among these groups (people in poor health already, the very old, people with lung ailments, etc.) will be significantly higher than the vast majority of all people.  People are not going to be allowed into nursing homes and the like, but life as we knew it is already starting to ease back closer toward where it was, and this is without a treatment or vaccine.  In the next few months the majority of people that are not at heightened risk for severe complications from the virus will be getting back to life that is closer to normal and if there is a treatment or vaccine that will only accelerate this transition back to normalcy further.

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22 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Sweden didnt shut anything down, France did. It didnt seem to make any difference in either country. I'm optimistic that we will take what we learn as time goes on and apply it, and start to open up venues, such as nfl stadiums.

This seems to be worst on public transportation, yet that's one thing we keep open. it cant survive very long outside. I dont expect Georgia to have some major outbreak. When we see these things, I just hope we learn from them and accept the facts that come from them. 

there's a lot of new information out there you wont get by watching the news. Information that destroys the models that we have been working off of with these policies. I'm optimistic but I realize I am barking up the wrong tree with the crowd in here. Many of you are on the east coast where theres a heavy reliance on public transportation, which is where this is spread the worst. 

If i can get just one person to actually look at the facts we have learned within the last 2 weeks, then that would be wonderful.

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline. 

Seems you’ve been 100% certain and wrong the whole time so giving advice at this point seems a bad idea.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

Seems you’ve been 100% certain and wrong the whole time so giving advice at this point seems a bad idea.

Anyone who goes to a fantasy football site looking for advice on health and safety is already destined for failure. Who cares what someone says on here concerning these issues?

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

These claims are simply not informed by the actual data.  You're missing a key point here:  there's a difference between the number of people who have tested positive and the actual number of people with the virus.

The surest way to not find anyone with the virus is to not test them.  Likewise, the more extensive testing is, two things are going to result

  1. A higher volume of people are going to test positive
  2. A more accurate picture of the infection rate and spread is going to emerge.

For example, here's data as of 4/27.

New York (state)
Population:  19.45 million
Total tests:  826,095
Rate of testing:  1 in 23 people tested

Massachusetts
Population:  6.98 million
Total tests:  244,887
Rate of testing:  1 in 28 people tested

Georgia
Population:  10.62 million
Total tests:  127,169
Rate of testing:  1 in 83 people tested

Florida
Population:  21.48 million
Total tests:  356,463
Rate of testing:  1 in 60 people tested

Now, I don't mean to say this is a hard and fast rule of East Coast vs. South.  For example, Louisiana is testing 1 in 31 people, while Pennsylvania is testing 1 in 60 people.  The point is, we will never know how bad the spread of the virus is in the present unless we test for it.  Drawing conclusions based on poor data is not the way to go.

There is some merit to what he is saying.  It is much easier to get this when we are in narrow areas like subways, taxi cabs etc.  A lot of people in NY city don't drive so if they go to work they use public transit.  The death rate shows some of that.  Los Angeles has had 1000 deaths as of now.  Harris County TX (Houston) has had 98.  NY state has had 17671.  If I remember right Houston is the 4th largest city and LA is second.  More people commute in those cities.  I have worked in information tech for a long time and this is somewhat like a computer virus, IE until the event has happened you don't know if it is something we have seen before or is new.  That is why antivirus software is updated constantly as threats arise.  Same with this, the longer this goes the more we know.  NY Times has an article saying this can be transmitted on dust in the air.  If that is the case then there is no avoiding it as you have to take off a mask to eat.  One big thing is that if the global economy truly crashes due to no one working then starvation may result.  Any country can only borrow for so long and there is a huge drop-off in tax revenue no matter who's govt you are talking about.  Once that happens farmers will have to figure a way to ship their goods to market.  Who pays the truckers?  Who pays the oil men to make fuel? if no one is able to spend money due to poverty or govt can't borrow more then the whole system breaks down.

Edited by NightStalkers
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I cannot stand (Bengal hater) Peter King but he did have a good point about the sheer volume of testing that would be needed to carry on NFL season even with skeletal staffing.  If that number (players, trainers, coaches, drivers, you name it) is say 150 for each team.  And if to carry this off to stay safe everyone has to get tested twice a week.  That's 300x32 teams = 9,600 tests per week.  Even a 12 weeks schedule + 13 playoff games + a modest 2 weeks of training = 15x9600 = 144,000 tests.  And that is if they only do twice a week.  And they would have to be the rapid tests.  Then add baseball.  And basketball and hockey.  And Nascar.  Not to mention soccer and on it goes.  It really becomes difficult to justify that many tests being used up when there is still a major shortage.

-QG

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On 4/27/2020 at 9:44 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Hospitals are going bankrupt and furloughing staff... during a health crisis... almost sounds like an Onion headline.

Forget about the Covid numbers and concentrate on hospitals losing money and furloughing staff.

These numbers are reliable because they involve money and that is tracked very-carefully.

This part of the story is true.

---------------------------------------------

During a Pandemic, an Unanticipated Problem: Out-of-Work Health Workers  >> Across the country, plunging revenues from canceled nonemergency medical appointments have forced hospitals to furlough or cut the pay of doctors, nurses and other staff.

Cash-starved hospitals and doctor groups cut staff amid pandemic

Hospitals are pushing off elective surgeries, going bankrupt, and furloughing workers

Some hospitals temporarily cutting staff as coronavirus crisis worsens: "We were kind of puzzled"  >>  In the middle of the coronavirus crisis, many hospitals across the U.S. are suddenly losing revenue. In some cases that means staff are being furloughed, right as the pandemic is worsening.

Hospitals face financial fallout from COVID-19: 6 things to know  >>  

From skyrocketing treatment expenses to loss of revenue from canceled procedures, the COVID-19 pandemic is putting pressure on hospitals and health systems across the U.S.

Six things to know:

1. Financial pressures. The COVID-19 outbreak is expected to have a significant impact on hospitals in the near term. Much of the pressure is due to hospitals canceling profitable elective procedures to perform lower profit treatments for patients with COVID-19

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3 hours ago, NightStalkers said:

There is some merit to what he is saying.  It is much easier to get this when we are in narrow areas like subways, taxi cabs etc.  A lot of people in NY city don't drive so if they go to work they use public transit.  The death rate shows some of that.  Los Angeles has had 1000 deaths as of now.  Harris County TX (Houston) has had 98.  NY state has had 17671.  If I remember right Houston is the 4th largest city and LA is second.  More people commute in those cities.  I have worked in information tech for a long time and this is somewhat like a computer virus, IE until the event has happened you don't know if it is something we have seen before or is new.  That is why antivirus software is updated constantly as threats arise.  Same with this, the longer this goes the more we know.  NY Times has an article saying this can be transmitted on dust in the air.  If that is the case then there is no avoiding it as you have to take off a mask to eat.  One big thing is that if the global economy truly crashes due to no one working then starvation may result.  Any country can only borrow for so long and there is a huge drop-off in tax revenue no matter who's govt you are talking about.  Once that happens farmers will have to figure a way to ship their goods to market.  Who pays the truckers?  Who pays the oil men to make fuel? if no one is able to spend money due to poverty or govt can't borrow more then the whole system breaks down.

It's reasonable to conclude that public transport access plays a role in the spread of the virus.  But you're cherry-picking stats here to fit your argument.  Other cities with heavy public transport use (Boston, Chicago, DC to name a few) haven't seen death rates anywhere near New York City.  Likewise, New Orleans has one of the highest death rates per capita in the nation, yet public transportation is limited in that city.

There are a number of factors that impact the death rate.  To name a few:  how early did a city/state begin social distancing?  What is the hospital capacity of a locale?  What percentage of its residents have chronic and severe illnesses or are immunocompromised?

The timeline of when a locale goes through its peak matters as well.  NYC was one of the first; lessons continue to be learned about how to care for patients.

Once again, it gets back to the data.  To be honest, my reply was moreso to the opinion that Georgia won't see a severe outbreak.  I don't know if it will or won't, but we do know that Georgia has much more limited data to work with as of right now than other states.  To make a prediction based on limited data is obviously the wrong way to go.

 

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1 minute ago, rschroeder1 said:

It's reasonable to conclude that public transport access plays a role in the spread of the virus.  But you're cherry-picking stats here to fit your argument.  Other cities with heavy public transport use (Boston, Chicago, DC to name a few) haven't seen death rates anywhere near New York City.  Likewise, New Orleans has one of the highest death rates per capita in the nation, yet public transportation is limited in that city.

There are a number of factors that impact the death rate.  To name a few:  how early did a city/state begin social distancing?  What is the hospital capacity of a locale?  What percentage of its residents have chronic and severe illnesses or are immunocompromised?

The timeline of when a locale goes through its peak matters as well.  NYC was one of the first; lessons continue to be learned about how to care for patients.

Once again, it gets back to the data.  To be honest, my reply was moreso to the opinion that Georgia won't see a severe outbreak.  I don't know if it will or won't, but we do know that Georgia has much more limited data to work with as of right now than other states.  To make a prediction based on limited data is obviously the wrong way to go.

 

NYC got hit hard first. Other cities put in measures to limit spread

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, QuizGuy66 said:

I cannot stand (Bengal hater) Peter King but he did have a good point about the sheer volume of testing that would be needed to carry on NFL season even with skeletal staffing.  If that number (players, trainers, coaches, drivers, you name it) is say 150 for each team.  And if to carry this off to stay safe everyone has to get tested twice a week.  That's 300x32 teams = 9,600 tests per week.  Even a 12 weeks schedule + 13 playoff games + a modest 2 weeks of training = 15x9600 = 144,000 tests.  And that is if they only do twice a week.  And they would have to be the rapid tests.  Then add baseball.  And basketball and hockey.  And Nascar.  Not to mention soccer and on it goes.  It really becomes difficult to justify that many tests being used up when there is still a major shortage.

-QG

If the tests cost $100 each (and I have no idea what the actual number is), that would only be $14.4 million dollars. The NFL can bear that cost. The fans can each chip in a dollar and cover it. It is a pittance. And it won't be happening at the expense of others who also need one. For this to work, there will have to be testing *everywhere*, not just the NFL. *We* can all pay for those, make the NFL pay for theirs.

Edited by barackdhouse

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

If the tests cost $100 each (and I have no idea what the actual number is), that would only be $14.4 million dollars. The NFL can bear that cost. The fans can each chip in a dollar and cover it. It is a pittance. And it won't be happening at the expense of others who also need one. For this to work, there will have to be testing *everywhere*, not just the NFL. *We* can all pay for those, make the NFL pay for theirs.

The question is not cost.  The question is supply.

If there is sufficient supply (for both testing and crucially getting back testing results) then a sports return becomes tenable.

-QG

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31 minutes ago, QuizGuy66 said:

The question is not cost.  The question is supply.

If there is sufficient supply (for both testing and crucially getting back testing results) then a sports return becomes tenable.

-QG

One of the challenges is that the supply of test kits needs to increase, but the supply of trained lab technicians needs to also increase. 

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On 4/27/2020 at 2:15 PM, Grigs Allmoon said:

That sure would be nice, and the thought crossed my mind when this first started breaking out, as my family did get sick this winter. But, then I remembered we did actually take my youngest in and he tested positive for Influenza.

Also, if this was going around back then there would have been a lot of hospitalizations/deaths. I can't think of a reason those would have been near 0% at this hypothesized wave 1 as compared to this March/April time-frame.

I 100% agree this went through the country back in January. Proof already that China had it in at least November, if not earlier.

My daughter (and many others) had a fever for three days, tested negative for flu. Had cough for several days after. Many, many, many people have shared the same stories. Maybe your youngest was the exception. ?? 

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5 hours ago, QuizGuy66 said:

The question is not cost.  The question is supply.

If there is sufficient supply (for both testing and crucially getting back testing results) then a sports return becomes tenable.

-QG

Yes, that I agree with. I just reject the notion that cost is a barrier.

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7 hours ago, Payne said:

I 100% agree this went through the country back in January. Proof already that China had it in at least November, if not earlier.

My daughter (and many others) had a fever for three days, tested negative for flu. Had cough for several days after. Many, many, many people have shared the same stories. Maybe your youngest was the exception. ?? 

In regard to when the virus started, I offer this open source project tracking the genetic mutations of the COVID-19 virus.  Their work pegs the start date as early December or late November.  I have no qualification to comment on the validity of this work, but I do find it to be highly interesting.

Another report on the first confirmed community spread in Washington state, and the genomic sequencing of the virus, suggests the virus was spreading in the state in as early as mid-January.

I understand your perspective from your anecdotal experiences.  On a purely selfish level, I hope antibody testing becomes widely available at some point, or perhaps I get invited to a random study.  As a healthy 34-year-old, I experienced the strangest illness this spring.  I became ill on March 3 with a bad cold bordering on flu-like symptoms, but one night of sleep got rid of feeling ill.  However, the cough stuck around for 6 weeks and has randomly returned here and there since then.  It seems unlikely it was COVID, but it has been strange!

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Well, the idea behind this thread couldn't have been more wrong. There WILL be football much sooner than people thought.

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On 4/26/2020 at 5:49 PM, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

NFL stadiums will be empty beside the teams/med staff/refs and tv crew...

Heard almost all announcers and crew will work from remote monitors.

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For those that missed it this week, it has been calculated that playing in empty stadiums and missing 0 games would cost an average of $100 million per team. That’s over $3 billion in lost revenue. The impact on the 2021 salary cap would be projected to be $30-$80 million. That would open up an entirely different can of worms next year. 

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It's really interesting to me, as someone who lives smack between NYC and Philadelphia, to hear people talk about this like it's nothing.  Especially Dr. Dan.  I've got no medical degree, but I'm more than aware of what the concern is regarding a second wave and how we're still vastly unprepared.

 

As for the NFL, people are staying up til 2am to watch Korean baseball.  The financial gain of live sports is easily worth the cost of testing, doctors, and whatever else is going to be needed to play for empty stadiums.  In fact it wouldn't surprise me if nfl teams end up owning more testing kits/masks/gloves than some states considering how the government is (not) handling this.

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The 49ers schedule is like the history of COVID hotspots in the US.

First 13 games are in places that have been hit hard at one point or another in all this.

NFL has to present and plan like it's full steam ahead - but there's a long time to run on things and that 2nd wave, man, it is not going to be pretty.

-QG

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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

For those that missed it this week, it has been calculated that playing in empty stadiums and missing 0 games would cost an average of $100 million per team. That’s over $3 billion in lost revenue. The impact on the 2021 salary cap would be projected to be $30-$80 million. That would open up an entirely different can of worms next year. 

do you have a link for this?

Can we assume that each game that could have a full stadium would add back approximately $6.67 million?

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Just now, Long Ball Larry said:

do you have a link for this?

Can we assume that each game that could have a full stadium would add back approximately $6.67 million?

The salary cap stuff was discussed on a Schefter podcast. Link to blurb on Sports Illustrated.

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On 5/7/2020 at 1:04 PM, irish eyes said:

Well, the idea behind this thread couldn't have been more wrong. There WILL be football much sooner than people thought.

I haven't seen any proof of that yet.

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I'm an ICU nurse...plenty of work for me, but the hospital is losing money. Deferred some annual bonuses for all, some executives took temporary pay cuts. Parts of the hospital are working at half capacity, while our workload has been near normal or a little heavier (the covid patients require a lot more isolation gear). It's just ......wierd.

The numbers for us have been static...not really changed much over the last month

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15 hours ago, IheartGuinness said:

I haven't seen any proof of that yet.

Agreed. All I've seen is a schedule that appears to be written in pencil instead of pen.

People have been discussing these "hard dates" for the 2020 NFL season but they are a mystery to me. I guess the idea would be network conflicts with events like March Madness but if the NFL is having trouble keeping 32 teams healthy for a season I don't see how all the teams/travel of a 2020 college basketball season is happening. 

This is probably the wrong fan base to ask, though. To hear most NFL fans tell it the world would stop spinning if the NFL regular season(at least a normal one) started the last weekend of August and ended the first weekend of January. "That would be INSANE" seemed to be a common complaint while the last CBA was being discussed.

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I think the NFL will start within a week or two of their normal schedule with fans in the stands. 

I also think the legalese on the back of the ticket will include something about no liability if you contract a virus at a game. 

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19 minutes ago, Neil Beaufort Zod said:

I think the NFL will start within a week or two of their normal schedule with fans in the stands. 

I also think the legalese on the back of the ticket will include something about no liability if you contract a virus at a game. 

How would anyone know if they caught the virus at the game?

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15 minutes ago, Tool said:

How would anyone know if they caught the virus at the game?

Probably the same way they know that people in a meat packing plant got it from there. If you suddenly have high numbers of infection and you find out a large portion of those people were at the same stadium, it’s pretty easy to figure out.

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1 hour ago, Cjw_55106 said:

Probably the same way they know that people in a meat packing plant got it from there. If you suddenly have high numbers of infection and you find out a large portion of those people were at the same stadium, it’s pretty easy to figure out.

Except presumably society will be open so people will having tons of interactions, also a stadium of tens of thousands of people is not the same as meat packing plant of a few hundred.

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43 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

The Upton Sinclair quote springs to mind: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon him not understanding it."

Great quote that applies to more people than ever. 

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