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Hairy Snowman

Will Tom Brady throw for 5000 yards this season?

Will Tom Brady throw for more than 5000 yards this season?   

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There you have it.  This could be the most talented offense he has ever played with, under BA's "no risk it, no biscuit" offense.  I saw what BA did with older QBs in Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner.  I think I am on the train.  TB has something to prove and BA is going to give him the offense to prove it.  I think TB has enough gas for a couple of seasons.  And maybe, just maybe, one last record setting season - ala Peyton Manning.  

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

There you have it.  This could be the most talented offense he has ever played with, under BA's "no risk it, no biscuit" offense.  I saw what BA did with older QBs in Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner.  I think I am on the train.  TB has something to prove and BA is going to give him the offense to prove it.  I think TB has enough gas for a couple of seasons.  And maybe, just maybe, one last record setting season - ala Peyton Manning.  

No. Not with his arm right now. Not unless he shows something much different than the past two years.

He's still an upgrade at QB for Tampa, but in a much different way.

And they could have used a quality running back instead of Jones II or Vaughn. And Jones needs to take the stupid II off of the back of his jersey, please. His only nod to a sequel should be a sequel to his second-round pick waste. 

Edited by rockaction

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

No. Not with his arm right now. Not unless he shows something much different than the past two years.

He's still an upgrade at QB for Tampa, but in a much different way.

And they could have used a quality running back instead of Jones II or Vaughn. And Jones needs to take the stupid II off of the back of his jersey, please. His only nod to a sequel should be a sequel to his second-round pick waste. 

I think we may have been looking at different film.  I saw TB throwing the ball away a lot the past two years because the receivers (aside from Edelman) could not get any separation.    Name one receiver that was getting separation and YAC like the Tampa receivers since Cook left?  IMO TB's arm is less important than TBs mind IMO.  TB will recognize the throw early.   Same reason Peyton was able to succeed in Denver.   

Also, Jones is still very young.  IMO He came out a year too early (but he needed to).  The first year after he was drafted he was a child among very big angry men.  And it showed. 

This is his 3rd year.  The prove it year for Jones.  And he should be grown into his body.  TB can and should help mold him into a poor mans James White. 

But, we will see.  Could still be a train wreck.  IMO the O Line is the weak link.  One or two injuries and TB will be getting blitzed every down. 

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I'm not certain the body is able, but I believe everyone will be hellbent on producing stats. I don't see them letting off the gas in wins. If it was reasonable, I think they would never give a handoff and use shovel passes instead of runs!

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5000 yards is asking a lot.  It doesn't happen that often.    Brady is 43.  But I feel that he will be super motivated to have a incredible season to show that he can be great without Belicheck.   Brady will get to add another chapter to his argument as the GOAT.

I voted no, but 4500 yards and 32-35 TDs is clearly a possibility.

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Posted (edited)

First of all in 2007 when the Pats offense was record-setting he only had 4,806 so 5,000 is a huge reach...If Brady is playing Arians style of football I think this whole thing will not turn out the way they want it to...TB is a perfectionist and he expects his weapons to be the same which is why I see this offense being different then what Arians has done in the past...maybe if he was 30 he could turn into a legit gunslinger but he will be 43 in August and if he is throwing that much he is gonna take far more hits then he should be and that won't end well...my guess is the TDs is the area where he has a chance to blow-up more then the yardage...one thing I would pay very close attention to would be news coming out of Bucs camp...any stories that start with Brady and a WR/TE not being on the same page usually does not end well...if you see a story about Evans or Godwin struggling with Brady you may want to think about moving them pretty quickly because as Patriot fans will tell you if he is not in-sync with you early it is very difficult to overcome that.

Edited by Boston
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When all the stars align, something inevitably goes wrong.

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Just now, Bazinga! said:

This is especially true for QBs that rely on precision/timing (TB)

I comment not to pick at your point but to offer an alternative one: What if Brady hasn't had pure athletes like Godwin and Evans in a while and relies more on deeper drops and routes than he did with NEP?

It's possible that personnel has been dictating his approach more than we think.

Dunno. I think we find out when we find out, though 5,000 yards is really steep.

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3 minutes ago, Bazinga! said:

I think we should lower expectations for all new qb/wr combinations.  The lack of practice time, due to the virus, will cause the timing/trust to develop slower than normal.  Year 1 is almost always a challenge.  I seems to me that this will be an even bigger challenge this year.

This is especially true for QBs that rely on precision/timing (TB)

Flipping that around, I would move up in the rankings established QB/WR connections if they remain in the same system. 

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I don't think any QB will throw for 5,000 yards. I do think Brady is a strong candidate to lead the NFL in passing yards. 

I think the two options are too limiting. I abstained because i don't think either option is accurate. 

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Voted No.

Arm strength at 43 and more importantly no off-season to develop chemistry with Evans and Godwin. Should be a solid FF QB still.

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Not even if he did have a full off-season to help install, practice, and become familiar with new teammates. Which he won't.

Las Vegas would be more than willing to make you a millionaire if you are willing to risk the right amount of money on it. My advice? Just make sure you purchase the return ticket BEFORE making the wager.

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... and furthermore I think the TB DEFENSE will probably keep him from reaching 5k yards as much as any defense Brady plays against. That TB defense is REAL. They were put in horrible after horrible situation last season by all the TO's made by Winston(both INT's and fumbles). It might be the best defense in the NFL with a rational, boring, time consuming offense on the field. That's why I think Brady will be successfull. He has enough talent around him to dink-and-dunk 10 minute drives down field. That rested defense that will be giving good field position for the first time will feast.... giving Brady even shorter fields.

I'm bullish on TB, but bearish on Brady stats other than completions. Don't know many fantasy leagues that award points for time of possession but that is probably what will make Brady so valuable and worth about 4 more wins all by himself this season.

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5 minutes ago, Wooters said:

I think people are forgetting that he has no OLine in TB.  How do you beat Brady?  You blitz the hell out of him.  There is no Edelman on this team.  Evans and Godwin are not that type of receiver.  3200 and 25...maybe.

His OL was actually pretty bad last year in NE as well. I think your stats aren't that far off but I think TB will get a ton more FG's and a ton less TO's that puts their defense behind the eight-ball which will lead to more victories.

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3 minutes ago, Wooters said:

His OLine in NE was mediocre, but what he's about to deal with in TB, with no offseason, is on another level of bad.

There were a lot of people that think Wirfs was the best OT in a draft with a ton of good OT's. I think the TB OL will be better than last year, but more importantly they will have a QB that will get rid of the ball faster and just throw the ball away when he gets into trouble which would make even last years OL look a lot better.

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Brady's arm is not nearly as strong as Carson Palmer's. The Arians-Brady combo seems exceedingly odd to me. I'm very curious to see how it pans out, but I'll be watching from the sidelines.

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He's got a shot, but its going to be with short to intermediate passing game more than deep bombs I'd think. 

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The most passing attempts in a season by a 43 year old QB in league history is 55 attempts. Brady is in unchartered territory at this point. I have my fears that things will not play out as well as it looks on paper. We have seen other HOF QBs go from top of the ladder to bottom of the barrel in very short order.

Arians likes deeper routes that require time for plays to develop. Brady has been throwing 5 yard outs and getting the ball out in 2 seconds for the last few years. Count me in the camp that deep passes are not Brady's strong suit at this stage of his career. The NE formula that has been very successful has been strong defense and special teams, running the football, short passes, and some timely play action. That seems like the opposite of an Arians coached team. Brady went a decade between SB titles, and those years had all the highest scoring Patriots offenses.

IMO, trying to get a whole new cast of characters on the same page and to get them all to think like Brady will be a major challenge. I also would expect a lot less practice and ramp up time to get the season underway, which won't help any. And I am not sure the culture and coaching in Tampa will be on par with that of NE. Brady and Gronk seem like they want a much more relaxed atmosphere, and that doesn't always translate into the best results.

But we won't know until they (hopefully) play the games.

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3 hours ago, Wooters said:

His OLine in NE was mediocre, but what he's about to deal with in TB, with no offseason, is on another level of bad.

This is untrue. Their guard and center play was rated well above average, their tackles were average. Ali Marpet leads the bunch from the guard position.

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Over / Under total yards for TB12 on my service site is 4400 yards

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Vegas has set the over under for Brady’s passing yardage total for this year at 4,099.5 yards.

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Vegas has set the over under for Brady’s passing yardage total for this year at 4,099.5 yards.

I don't bet but that would be very tempting...playing with subpar weapons and a banged up line for a good part of the season (and strong speculation he was also banged up) last year he had 4,057...if he plays 16 I think that is very doable.

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Posted (edited)

So what the consensus is saying is that Tom Brady will not be better than Jameis Winston - with a better offensive line and better weapons?

Look at the home games - GB, Minnesota, KC, the Rams, The Chargers - not to mention Atlanta and New Orleans (road and away).  Games AT the Raiders and AT the Broncos could easily become offensive games.  

I understand that the TB defense is better than they show on paper, but I don't think TB is going to be leading in most of those games.  That means passing.  And aside from a couple of new pieces on the line and a mystery rookie at running back, I don't know why the running game is going to suddenly blossom.  

I think what is going to blossom is the short passing game.   

I am going to stick with the prediction (barring injury to TB).  I think TB will put up better numbers than Winston in this offense.   This is TOM BRADY.  He is a coach on the field.  Much like Peyton Manning did his last few years, Tom Brady is more than capable of moving around pieces pre-snap to figure out the open man before the ball is even hiked.  I think people are underestimating him and that is fueling him. 
 

Edited by Hairy Snowman

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2 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

This is TOM BRADY.  He is a coach on the field.  Much like Peyton Manning did his last few years, Tom Brady is more than capable of moving around pieces pre-snap to figure out the open man before the ball is even hiked. 

Peyton Manning's second-to-last year in the league: 395-597 (66.2%), 39 TD, 15 INT, 7.68 ANY/A, 72.0 QBR

Peyton Manning's last year in the league: 198-331 (59.8%), 9 TD, 17 INT, 4.52 ANY/A, 43.9 QBR

It can happen just that fast.

 

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8 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Peyton Manning's second-to-last year in the league: 395-597 (66.2%), 39 TD, 15 INT, 7.68 ANY/A, 72.0 QBR

Peyton Manning's last year in the league: 198-331 (59.8%), 9 TD, 17 INT, 4.52 ANY/A, 43.9 QBR

It can happen just that fast.

 

Manning was playing through a serious neck injury.  Tom Brady has never been seriously injured.  

And I would argue the skill players are much better on this team than those Denver teams.

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10 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

So what the consensus is saying is that Tom Brady will not be better than Jameis Winston - with a better offensive line and better weapons?

Actually no one said that.

Tom Brady could be tenfolds better than Winston in NFL terms and not come close to 5,000 yards. Your over/under number is a bit ambitious.

 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Actually no one said that.

Tom Brady could be tenfolds better than Winston in NFL terms and not come close to 5,000 yards. Your over/under number is a bit ambitious.

 

Winston threw for 5100 yards in this offense last year - that while throwing interceptions and missing open receivers every 3rd throw.  Brady is at a completely different level.  He isn't going to be diagnosing the defenses or missing open receivers.  And, as we should know from NE, he isn't going to let off the gas until maybe the 4th quarter. 

I agree this was an aggressive projection.  I put it at the outer cusp for a reason.  And I will defend the position for the sake of discussion.  

I think Tom Brady wants to go out with a bang.  This offensive scheme and the talent around him should let him do that. 

Edited by Hairy Snowman

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23 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Winston threw for 5100 yards in this offense last year - that while throwing interceptions and missing open receivers every 3rd throw.  Brady is at a completely different level.  He isn't going to be diagnosing the defenses or missing open receivers.  And, as we should know from NE, he isn't going to let off the gas until maybe the 4th quarter. 

I agree this was an aggressive projection.  I put it at the outer cusp for a reason.  And I will defend the position for the sake of discussion.  

I think Tom Brady wants to go out with a bang.  This offensive scheme and the talent around him should let him do that. 

He’s 43 and showing signs of decline - I know you denied his decline earlier but your “film” is vastly different than most. It seems unrealistic to expect him to be dropped into a new offense with a limited (at best) offseason and expect one of the top 10 all time passing seasons. 

I think he’ll have a very good season but he’s not approaching the 5,100 yards Winston had. The turnovers were a part of why he had to throw downfield so much.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2020 at 12:18 PM, FF Ninja said:

Brady's arm is not nearly as strong as Carson Palmer's. The Arians-Brady combo seems exceedingly odd to me. I'm very curious to see how it pans out, but I'll be watching from the sidelines.

This is where I am. I'm open to the idea that Brady's loss of some physical ability can be compensated for by TB's skill position players. He has the keys to the nicest car he's had in a while. But I still wonder about this partnership, and Arians is fairly overrated as an offensive guru. DLF has an article up right now about this. It's only available to subscribers, but most pertinent to this thread: in his 15 seasons as either an OC or a HC Arians's offenses have only produced a fantasy QB1 five times (his numbers for RBs are about as average and his numbers for WRs are a little more solid). He also strikes me as arrogant, and I wonder how much meeting in the middle with Brady there will be - or what that middle even looks like. I'm guessing Brady was reassured that he'd have input in the offense, and I assume he will. But I don't trust there will be enough negotiation to close the gap on the mismatch between Arians's approach and the system Brady has thrived in and/or his current physical limitations.

Edited by DAG
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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

He’s 43 and showing signs of decline - I know you denied his decline earlier but your “film” is vastly different than most. It seems unrealistic to expect him to be dropped into a new offense with a limited (at best) offseason and expect one of the top 10 all time passing seasons. 

I think he’ll have a very good season but he’s not approaching the 5,100 yards Winston had. The turnovers were a part of why he had to throw downfield so much.

First, I am not sure how much it is Brady in decline or it was the NE receivers that really were not very good.  Aside from Edelmen, they had no one who could get separation.  

Brady's mind is not in decline.  To me, he can still throw the ball.  I remember when Manning could diagnose Demaryius Thomas was going to be open before the play started through motion and throw it instantly to Thomas and Thomas would run down the field for the TD.  This team has that potential.  

And there should be a period where the receivers and Brady will be out of sync.  Plus they are going against a really good offensive slate of teams.  To me, that means a good chance they are trailing.  

And, again, I get 5000 yards sounds crazy, but Winston put up 5100 and left a ton of points on the field. 

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8 minutes ago, DAG said:

This is where I am. I'm open to the idea that Brady's loss of some physical ability can be compensated for by TB's skill position players. He has the keys to the nicest car he's had in a while. But I still wonder about this partnership, and Arians is fairly overrated as an offensive guru. DLF has an article up right now about this. It's only available to subscribers, but most pertinent to this thread: in his 15 seasons as either an OC or a HC Arians's offenses have only produced a fantasy QB1 five times (his numbers for RBs are about as average and his numbers for WRs are a little more solid). He also strikes me as arrogant, and I wonder how much meeting in the middle with Brady there will be - or what that middle even looks like. I'm guessing Brady was reassured that he'd have input in the offense, and I assume he will. But I don't trust there will be enough negotiation to close the gap on the mismatch between Arians's approach and the system Brady has thrived in and/or his current physical limitations.

I think Brady is like having another coach.  I wouldn't be surprised if Brady has the keys to the offense. 

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8 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

I think Brady is like having another coach.  I wouldn't be surprised if Brady has the keys to the offense. 

If Arians hands a lot of the offense over to Brady then I absolutely agree. Not 5,000 passing yards agree but I think you're right it would be better for everyone. I just wonder if Arians would really step aside that much.

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Don’t tell Snowman that Tampa threw for 200+ more yards in 2018 than 2019 or he will up his expectations for Brady. 

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6 minutes ago, DAG said:

If Arians hands a lot of the offense over to Brady then I absolutely agree. Not 5,000 passing yards agree but I think you're right it would be better for everyone. I just wonder if Arians would really step aside that much.

I think he would be thrilled to step aside and worry more about the defense. 

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Don’t tell Snowman that Tampa threw for 200+ more yards in 2018 than 2019 or he will up his expectations for Brady. 

There is a difference between "expecting" and "theorizing".  I think it is very possible.  More likely than <10% the poll is at.  

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5 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

There is a difference between "expecting" and "theorizing".  I think it is very possible.  More likely than <10% the poll is at.  

That's not how it works.  Those 10% are actually EXPECTING.  The poll could be at 100 to 0, with all 100 thinking there's a 49% chance it happens.

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On 4/30/2020 at 8:41 AM, rockaction said:

I comment not to pick at your point but to offer an alternative one: What if Brady hasn't had pure athletes like Godwin and Evans in a while and relies more on deeper drops and routes than he did with NEP?

It's possible that personnel has been dictating his approach more than we think.

Dunno. I think we find out when we find out, though 5,000 yards is really steep.

Deep ball was never his thing. Moss made him look good but from what I can remember he never had much success with  anyone else.

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On 4/30/2020 at 9:38 AM, daveR said:

When all the stars align, something inevitably goes wrong.

Sort of feels like there is a blackhole lurking.  

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6 hours ago, DAG said:

If Arians hands a lot of the offense over to Brady then I absolutely agree. Not 5,000 passing yards agree but I think you're right it would be better for everyone. I just wonder if Arians would really step aside that much.

I’m not sure Brady is Manning. Belichick and McDaniel built the offense, how much input do you really think he had? Arian’s will alter things a bit not install the Patriots offense.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

I’m not sure Brady is Manning. Belichick and McDaniel built the offense, how much input do you really think he had? Arian’s will alter things a bit not install the Patriots offense.

I don’t think we really know yet so I’m obviously just guessing but there’s a huge space between altering things a bit and installing the pats offense. I’m much more to the side of just altering things a bit. But we’ll see. 

Edited by DAG

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2020 at 6:38 AM, Hairy Snowman said:

There you have it.  This could be the most talented offense he has ever played with, under BA's "no risk it, no biscuit" offense.  I saw what BA did with older QBs in Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner.  I think I am on the train.  TB has something to prove and BA is going to give him the offense to prove it.  I think TB has enough gas for a couple of seasons.  And maybe, just maybe, one last record setting season - ala Peyton Manning.  

I don’t think Arians ever coached Warner.

But I voted that Brady is going to rock and roll this year.

Edited by kutta
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19 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Don’t tell Snowman that Tampa threw for 200+ more yards in 2018 than 2019 or he will up his expectations for Brady. 

So to put the question another way: Will Tampa Bay throw for 5000+ yards for the third season in a row?

Seems a lot less crazy. Especially when considering they go from a QB with 30 picks to arguably the greatest QB of all time.

I'm not sure he hits 5k, as another poster said, don't underestimate the covid factor and lack of preparation for these new systems and players getting in sync. But even with that taken into account, if he plays 16 I think he'll be closer to 5k than 4k.

IMO that Vegas 4k o/u must be factoring in injury. Otherwise you're betting the TB passing offense to regress by 20% with an upgrade at QB.

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12 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

So to put the question another way: Will Tampa Bay throw for 5000+ yards for the third season in a row?

Seems a lot less crazy. Especially when considering they go from a QB with 30 picks to arguably the greatest QB of all time.

I'm not sure he hits 5k, as another poster said, don't underestimate the covid factor and lack of preparation for these new systems and players getting in sync. But even with that taken into account, if he plays 16 I think he'll be closer to 5k than 4k.

IMO that Vegas 4k o/u must be factoring in injury. Otherwise you're betting the TB passing offense to regress by 20% with an upgrade at QB.

Why would an upgrade in QB mean more passing yards?  I think it will mean less.  Tampa was forced to throw the ball a lot by playing from behind... Tom won't be.

Also, Winston goes deep a lot and racks up yards.   5th most Y/A in the NFL last year.  Brady?  30th.

5000 yard seasons have happened 12 times in NFL history (5 of which were Brees). 

The oldest player to ever throw for 5000 was 37 years old.  Tom will be 43.

Nothing at all adds up to Brady hitting 5K this year.

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22 hours ago, DAG said:

This is where I am. I'm open to the idea that Brady's loss of some physical ability can be compensated for by TB's skill position players. He has the keys to the nicest car he's had in a while. But I still wonder about this partnership, and Arians is fairly overrated as an offensive guru. DLF has an article up right now about this. It's only available to subscribers, but most pertinent to this thread: in his 15 seasons as either an OC or a HC Arians's offenses have only produced a fantasy QB1 five times (his numbers for RBs are about as average and his numbers for WRs are a little more solid). He also strikes me as arrogant, and I wonder how much meeting in the middle with Brady there will be - or what that middle even looks like. I'm guessing Brady was reassured that he'd have input in the offense, and I assume he will. But I don't trust there will be enough negotiation to close the gap on the mismatch between Arians's approach and the system Brady has thrived in and/or his current physical limitations.

I don't subscribe to DLF so I can't comment on that article in particular, but in Arians' defense, while he was in PIT, they were winning by playing defense and playing it safe on offense. So Arians the OC didn't have the pass attempts to produce a QB1. That's not to say I am confident he's not overrated. Your premise might still be true. I just don't think it's fair to hold his PIT days against him. He did run a very efficient offense there given what he had.

I'm just so curious if Arians will be able to adapt his vertical offense to Brady's dink and dunk arm. 

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42 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I don't subscribe to DLF so I can't comment on that article in particular, but in Arians' defense, while he was in PIT, they were winning by playing defense and playing it safe on offense. So Arians the OC didn't have the pass attempts to produce a QB1. That's not to say I am confident he's not overrated. Your premise might still be true. I just don't think it's fair to hold his PIT days against him. He did run a very efficient offense there given what he had.

I'm just so curious if Arians will be able to adapt his vertical offense to Brady's dink and dunk arm. 

Good point on PIT. You’ve summarized my primary concern/curiosity in the bolded. I actually want to see them adjust the offense bc I have some TB skill players. So I hope I’m wrong on Arians. 

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On 4/30/2020 at 11:51 AM, Wooters said:

I think people are forgetting that he has no OLine in TB.  How do you beat Brady?  You blitz the hell out of him.  There is no Edelman on this team.  Evans and Godwin are not that type of receiver.  3200 and 25...maybe.

Whole lot of wrong here.  Tampa's offensive line was ranked 7th by PFF after the season and added Wirfs with the 13th pick to solidify it. 

Quote

Ryan Jensen and Ali Marpet anchored the middle of this Buccaneers’ offensive line and provided some of the best pass protection that we saw from any interior offensive line this season. The guard and center positions for the Bucs combined for an 80.4 pass-blocking grade this season, ranking second among all offenses around the league. Dating back to 2015, Marpet has the 12th-highest overall grade among 55 guards with 2,500-plus snaps.

Godwin was the slot WR on the majority of snaps for Arians' offense in 2019 and at this point in his career is likely a major upgrade over Edelman. 

All of that being said I don't think he'll throw for 5,000 yards.  Probably much closer to 4,000 with high efficiency and TD numbers (35+). Evans, Godwin, Gronk, Howard, and Brate is a filthy set of red zone receiving options.   The defense is also much better than it's being given credit for so the shootout games may be more few and far between.  A lot of the points the defense gave up, and Jameis' passing yards, were accumulated following his turnovers. 

 

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Here are the yearly passing totals for Arians teams (HC or OC) . . .

01 CLE - 3154
02 CLE - 3665
03 CLE - 3116
07 PIT - 3418
08 PIT - 3607
09 PIT - 4496
10 PIT - 3890
11 PIT - 4333
12 IND - 4374
13 ARI - 4291
14 ARI - 3990
15 ARI - 4775
16 ARI - 4425
17 ARI - 3979
19 TBB - 5127

Obviously last year is the big outlier. I don't see Brady getting to 5K yards. He did it once with NE in 20 years, and he played on 4 teams that scored 500+ points. The more interesting question will be the over/under 4100 yards question. Essentially, baked into that is the risk that he doesn't play every game, that the season is not shortened, that his skills aren't too badly diminished, and there is decent chemistry with the team. I am guessing that a lot of people will just automatically jump to the over on this that Vegas is actually thinking he won't be able to play enough to get that many passing yards.
 

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