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*IF* Joe Biden stepped down (1 Viewer)

Who should the DNC nominate?

  • Sanders

    Votes: 27 32.1%

  • Warren

    Votes: 6 7.1%

  • Klobuchar

    Votes: 12 14.3%

  • Buttigieg

    Votes: 15 17.9%

  • Harris

    Votes: 5 6.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 19 22.6%
  • Total voters
    84
R

Rich Conway

Footballguy
This is intended to be a hypothetical post as an interesting thought exercise.  To be clear, I don't expect any of this to happen.  I do want to set a few ground rules for the hypothetical discussion...

* For sake of hypothetical argument, let's assume Joe Biden steps down in the near future (i.e. well before the convention).  Let's not argue "that will never happen!" or "he shouldn't step down!" or "but Trump!"
* Let's assume it's way too late (and dangerous due to COVID-19) to hold primary elections again in all the states that already did, even assuming it were legal to do so
* For sake of argument, I'd like to approach this from the point of view of a Democrat that views the overarching goal as "ensure that the D nominee wins the general election".  That is, arguments like "Bernie's approach is socialism" aren't really relevant.  Arguments like "Democrats suck, Trump is much better" aren't relevant, since they aren't from the D point of view.  Arguments like "Bernie can't win the general election because he's too far to the left" would be valid, although it would be nice to see some links or facts to back up something like that.
* Let's approach it from the angle of "using the above assumptions, what can/should the DNC do", both legally and strategically?

I suspect the approach would not be to simply award the nomination to Sanders because he has the second-most delegates to date.

I also suspect that awarding the nomination to anyone other than Sanders would cause many of his supporters to have a conniption due to perceived (and possibly very real) DNC bias against Sanders.  Would that cause many of those supporters who might have reluctantly showed up and voted Biden to instead stay home?  Would awarding the nomination to Warren (as opposed to, say, Klobuchar or Buttigieg) mitigate that possibility?

So, if you had final say, and the sole goal is "winning the Nov general", who would you nominate?  Sanders?  Warren?  Klobuchar?  Buttigieg?  Other?

 
It won't be Sanders.

I'd like it to be Buttigieg (my vote) - but he may get the VP nod

I think it would be Warren, with maybe Harris as an outside shot.

 
Sinn Fein said:
It won't be Sanders.

I'd like it to be Buttigieg (my vote) - but he may get the VP nod

I think it would be Warren, with maybe Harris as an outside shot.
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Similar here.  I think it would be interesting to know how the voters would have responded had Biden not run.  IMO it would not have been Bernie.

 
The Democrat establishment pulled a red wedding on Bernie, no way they pick him. It’s Hillary without a doubt.

 
Rich Conway said:
So, if you had final say, and the sole goal is "winning the Nov general", who would you nominate?  Sanders?  Warren?  Klobuchar?  Buttigieg?  Other?
Click to expand...


Widbil83 said:
The Democrat establishment pulled a red wedding on Bernie, no way they pick him. It’s Hillary without a doubt.
Click to expand...


Odd choice.  I'm having a hard time understanding why one would choose Hillary Clinton if the sole goal is winning the November general.  You think she would be the most likely to win?

 
It would not be Clinton, it would probably be someone who has been in the primary at some point. If it is early enough (like tomorrow), could they chose to re-do primaries, or have a limited primary? Otherwise they would probably chose one of the moderate primary candidates at the convention. Harris would make sense but would be a stretch with how early she dropped out, probably Klob or Buttigieg would be my guess. I don't think they would have much interest in Warren/Sanders. 

 
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Sinn Fein said:
It won't be Sanders.

I'd like it to be Buttigieg (my vote) - but he may get the VP nod

I think it would be Warren, with maybe Harris as an outside shot.
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I have to reconsider here - would Massachusetts be able to schedule a special election for Warren's senate seat this fall?

If not, it would put a Dem senate seat into the hands of the GOP.

Having said that - if Biden were forced to step down as a result of sexual harassment claims, I would still expect the Dems to name a female candidate.  Warren is the most viable of the female candidates.  So, I would think she would still be a top contender. 

 
Sinn Fein said:
I have to reconsider here - would Massachusetts be able to schedule a special election for Warren's senate seat this fall?

If not, it would put a Dem senate seat into the hands of the GOP.

Having said that - if Biden were forced to step down as a result of sexual harassment claims, I would still expect the Dems to name a female candidate.  Warren is the most viable of the female candidates.  So, I would think she would still be a top contender. 
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As I understand it, if Warren won, the current GOP governor would appoint a replacement (beginning in Jan) and the special election would be scheduled around June/July.  So, yes, the GOP would pick up a Senate seat for 4+ months.

 
I voted Harris.  At the start of the whole primary season it really felt like the DNC would have picked Harris if they didn't have to go through with the whole primary dance. She checks a lot of identity boxes and has a platform pretty tailor made for the establishment wing of the Democratic party. 

I thought about Warren, Amy and Pete as well. Warren's seat isn't a 100% lock and they need it (plus they may not really want her anyway), I don't think Amy would beat Trump head to head on her own and Pete, although a talented politician, has only received around 8,000 votes for a medium sized city in Indiana... tough to roll the dice on in such an important spot (plus I think they want a woman).

In this scenario I think Pete would be VP, or at least strongly considered for it.

Hillary is an interesting name as some have mentioned above but i don't see how they run that one back again... definitely possible though. Heck, comparing her to Biden makes her look pretty good.

The person who I think it SHOULD be is Bernie... he outperformed everyone except Joe in the primary, he would draw back the #NeverBiden voters that may be needed in a close race, he knows how to fundraise, he has a massive marketing list, he would have thousands of people calling, texting, knocking on doors, 30 million people who just lost their jobs would be far more open to his ideas regardless of what political persuasion they are, he would match or exceed the energy from Trump's base ... BUT... it's clear the DNC would rather burn itself to the ground than ever give him the nom, so no chance.

 
#Yanggang    Intelligent, fresh blood, youth, new ideas and solid leadership skills.  It's a pipe dream but the really scary part is that it's a pipe dream.  Should be the standard, oh how far we've fallen.

 
KiddLattimer said:
The person who I think it SHOULD be is Bernie... he outperformed everyone except Joe in the primary, he would draw back the #NeverBiden voters that may be needed in a close race, he knows how to fundraise, he has a massive marketing list, he would have thousands of people calling, texting, knocking on doors, 30 million people who just lost their jobs would be far more open to his ideas regardless of what political persuasion they are, he would match or exceed the energy from Trump's base ... BUT... it's clear the DNC would rather burn itself to the ground than ever give him the nom, so no chance.
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Agreed.  And it is probably why they are sticking with Biden no matter what.  They have to know that a lot of Bernie supporters are going to grimace and vote for Biden, but if Biden dropped out and they still didn't give the nomination to Sanders, many of his supporters would be out for blood and have no problem burning the Democrats to the ground, even if meant four years of Trump.

 
Should be Bernie but there's no chance the party will allow it. It has to be someone Biden hasn't already defeated so they can sell the idea that had "Chosen Savior" been running all along, she or he would have won the primaries. Everyone who ran and dropped out has the "loser stink" of being defeated by the incredibly weak Biden. The Dems need to sell the idea of a newcomer saving the Party which they can then extrapolate to the idea of saving the country. I gotta believe enough of those phrases being whispered in someone's ear would be enough to stroke an ego or two.

 
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Hillary Clinton.   Sad that she did not toss her hat in the ring this as she would have dominated the weak field.

Clinton would have been much more popular this time around.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Yes, but that would be more than offset by losing the #NeverSanders voters.

:shrug:
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If that's the case let me never be lectured again by a centrist about how horrible Trump is when I vote Green

I would have agreed on the Warren point for most of the primary but she burned (Bern-ed?) a lot of bridges with the Bernie crowd at the end.

 
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My heart says Bernie. But I think Klobuchar or maybe Buttigiege would have next best shot at actually winning the general after Biden, so I went cynical and voted Klobuchar here. I think the primaries told us people want moderate right now, and I see one of those two as the next best moderate up.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Agreed.  And it is probably why they are sticking with Biden no matter what.  They have to know that a lot of Bernie supporters are going to grimace and vote for Biden, but if Biden dropped out and they still didn't give the nomination to Sanders, many of his supporters would be out for blood and have no problem burning the Democrats to the ground, even if meant four years of Trump.
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Yea definitely agree on this... I would imagine at least 80% of Berners vote Biden, probably higher. The question is if that extra 10-20% is enough to make a difference. 

 
Other - Cuomo.  He's had plenty of spotlight recently and is a Governor, so wouldn't impact the senate.  Already has shown that he can go toe-to-toe with Trump.

ETA: and Mitch.

 
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Sinn Fein said:
I have to reconsider here - would Massachusetts be able to schedule a special election for Warren's senate seat this fall?

If not, it would put a Dem senate seat into the hands of the GOP.

Having said that - if Biden were forced to step down as a result of sexual harassment claims, I would still expect the Dems to name a female candidate.  Warren is the most viable of the female candidates.  So, I would think she would still be a top contender. 
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I don't know if the DNC would nominate Warren, I don't know if they agree with her position of going after large businesses, and I feel like she has poor political instincts so she kind of punches below her weight when it comes to campaigning. They won't nominate Sanders because they don't like his positions. Cuomo is in the spotlight a lot, but his policies are pretty bad IMO thought maybe that is my bias showing, the DNC could be perfectly happy with him. Might have lots of skeletons in the closet.

 
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Surprised no one has said Bloomberg yet. I'm not a fan, but if your hypothetical came to be he'd certainly be in contention.

 
Travis the Chimp said:
It has to be Bernie. Only candidate on the list that inspires people. 
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..but he inspires a limited core of people.  It'd be unfair to exclude him, but I don't see it going to him.

I would so love to see Harris in debates against Trump, so I suppose I lean toward her.  But I'm not sure how her background would look under the microscope.

 
Strategically, I have no idea. I don't think there's anyone out there who could really unite the party and have any sort of legitimacy, so I'm not sure who would be the best candidate to beat Trump. Likelihood is if Biden withdraws, Trump wins the election by default.

Logistically, I have even less of an idea. These conversations come up every election cycle, and no one ever has a satisfactory answer. After the Access Hollywood tape, there was some discussion of Trump withdrawing, but no clear mechanism for what the RNC would do in that situation. I mean, I assume they would have chosen Pence, but under what party by-law? How would the selection process actually work? What if there were lawsuits by losing candidates or party members? 

Basically, any way you look at it, it would be a complete s##t-show. Which is why it will never happen.

 
So I've gone from Yang Gang to Bernie Boy to Riden' with Biden. If need be I'll just back up a step. Defeat the Donald is all that matters.

 
sho nuff said:
Cuomo is the flavor of the month.
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You remember how good Rudy was in the days and weeks after 9/11? Of course you do, he reminded us elventy zillion times.

Cuomo has been stellar since this got his attention. Full stop.

Cuomo’s a jerk. Doesn’t or cannot build coalitions, likely has some skeletons (it’s still 3 men in a room up In Albany), doesn’t want the job.

It’s the same as “how long is it OK to leave you on read?” 1/2 day, tops. Pick someone who wants to be in it, move on if they don’t. 

 
In true DNC style, they will screw it up. I think the Sanders voters will show up for Biden but if Biden drops out and Bernie doesn’t become the candidate, I have zero confidence he will get his supporters behind the new candidate. Maybe you could sell them on Cuomo for his leadership during the crisis. Might be better to have Joe name his VP and then have her take over if he steps down.

 
BobbyLayne said:
You remember how good Rudy was in the days and weeks after 9/11? Of course you do, he reminded us elventy zillion times.

Cuomo has been stellar since this got his attention. Full stop.

Cuomo’s a jerk. Doesn’t or cannot build coalitions, likely has some skeletons (it’s still 3 men in a room up In Albany), doesn’t want the job.

It’s the same as “how long is it OK to leave you on read?” 1/2 day, tops. Pick someone who wants to be in it, move on if they don’t. 
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Plus has he not run NY state into the ground with debt and high taxes?

Clinton would jump on this horse in a split second if given the change.  Would love to see a Trump vs Clinton    Let`s get Dana White involved.

 
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Da Guru said:
Plus has he not run NY state into the ground with debt and high taxes?
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Kinda the opposite... He refuses to tax Millionaires and Billionaires and has been drastically cutting hospital and school budgets for years. He even cut hospital budgets right in the middle of the COVID mess a few weeks ago.

He's also been involved in numerous bribery scandals, there was a mess where the Dems had the majority but some Dems defected to caucus with Republicans to take control and run the state (Cuomo did very little against it) and a bunch of the typical neoliberal garbage.

He's done an admirable job with COVID but trust me he's not the answer

 
Biff84 said:
Might be better to have Joe name his VP and then have her take over if he steps down.
Click to expand...
That’s not how it works. Though technically Biden hasn’t been confirmed for the nomination at the Convention so 

:shrug:

Since the time of Andrew Jackson's run for the presidency in 1828, individual political parties have had the job of filling any vacancy on their national ticket, either that of their presidential or vice-presidential candidate. If one of their candidates vacates the ticket after they are nominated, either because of death or withdrawal, the party selects a replacement. 

Both the Republican and the Democratic parties have rules in their bylaws governing how to fill the vacancy. The Party Chair calls a meeting of the National Committee, and the Committee members at the meeting vote to fill the vacancy on the ticket. A candidate must receive a majority of the votes to win the party's nod.

Filling a Vacancy After the Nomination
Click to expand...
 
Biff84 said:
In true DNC style, they will screw it up. I think the Sanders voters will show up for Biden but if Biden drops out and Bernie doesn’t become the candidate, I have zero confidence he will get his supporters behind the new candidate. Maybe you could sell them on Cuomo for his leadership during the crisis. Might be better to have Joe name his VP and then have her take over if he steps down.
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I really don't think Biden has any preferential status to Sanders voters, if anything he is a liability where I know a decent amount of people who will specifically not vote Biden due to his conservative track record and/or sexual harassment allegations who would probably vote for any other non-Bloomberg candidate. Cuomo would be a no go once people are aware of his voting record as well.

Really it seems like no one actually wants or is enthusiastic about Biden, he is just there because his name recognition allowed him to pick up solidly republican states in the primary he will then lose in the general election. I don't think anyone would actually care if he was replaced because it does not seem like there are any "Biden or Bust" voters to begin with.

 
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BobbyLayne said:
That’s not how it works. Though technically Biden hasn’t been confirmed for the nomination at the Convention so 

:shrug:
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Right. Post convention the party has a process, and would almost certainly select the VP nominee. But if it happened tomorrow? Officially the nomination isn’t decided yet. I suppose it would mean a contested convention.

Also I’m assuming in this hypothetical that Biden is dropping out because of scandal, so if that’s what happened I’m guessing not many Democrats would be in the mood to let him decide their nominee

 
My vote would be for any woman. Been old white guys for too long.
Harris, Klobuchar, Warren.

If it ended up being a woman but not one of those three, then I think my choice would Melbourne or Sydney.

 
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