Pick Your Busts (2020 Rookie Edition) (1 Viewer)

Saw on twitter Ryan McDowell had a top12 ADP data for the past 10 years.  Then JetpackGalileo posed the question to pick some busts out of this years group.  As we know, not all of them will be long term figures in dynasty.  Thought it would be fun to see the boards perspective on this.  Anyways pick your busts from the top12 ADP, see who the most volatile is.  

1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire 

3. JK Dobbins

6. Jerry Jeudy

10. Henry Ruggs

11. Ke'Shawn Vaughn

I don't think these guys particularly "bust" but I don't really see long term stability for their careers.  I hope I'm wrong because some of these guys are just fun to watch.  

If you could please post who you picked and conversation can ensue.  

Dobbins is a jack of all trades master at none IMO, pretty safe to be at least decent. CEH carries some risk with his pass pro and maybe some size concerns. Juedy is such a thin frame that I worry about injuries but seems to be at minimum a slot guy who can create space and give his QB a target. Taylor has concerns with fumbles and pass pro. 

If I have to pick one it would be Ruggs based on his draft position. Derek Carr may not be a franchise quarterback and they added another talented receiver who could step above him (Edwards). Based on limited production in college we are left guessing on what he is really able to produce on the field. 

Taylor, Akers, Jeudy, Reagor, Ke'Shawn.

Also, Ruggs III might never live up to fantasy production demands. I love him, but he has all the trappings of another burner lost in the shuffle with a QB situation that is unkind to his game. I hope not. I also wonder whether Higgins will ever be able to separate quickly given his length.

Lots of questions. We'll find out.

King of the Jungle said:

If I have to pick one it would be Ruggs based on his draft position. Derek Carr may not be a franchise quarterback and they added another talented receiver who could step above him (Edwards). Based on limited production in college we are left guessing on what he is really able to produce on the field. 

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Beat me to it. Let's hope potential and speed outweigh every production indicator from college. 

I need to study a bit more before I finalize anything, but my early votes go to:

Lamb - He has so much hype and production, but on tape he is a one-speed player who has to work very hard to get open. There's a pathway to being a Keenan Allen/Tyler Boyd type of average size/average speed WR who wins with quickness, RAC skills, and fluidity, but all the talk around him would make you think he's this explosive, electric talent, and I don't see it. "Bust" is probably a stretch, but he may be closer to a system-dependent WR2 in the NFL than a future #1 guy. Also, while I don't put a lot of stock in pigeon-holing players based on their school, OU WRs have a history of inflated NCAA production and unimpressive NFL results.

Higgins - He looks like another Zay Jones or Josh Doctson. Tall and stringy, without the sharp route running and movement of body type-comps like AJ Green. I see him struggling to generate separation in the NFL.

Vaughn - He's decent and would be a quality backup/spot starter, but he doesn't have any obvious elite traits and there are so many guys of this profile that he may have a hard time holding down a share of the workload long-term. There are 6-7 guys of this caliber in every draft, and only 32 starting jobs in the league.

I wouldn't say Ruggs is a very risky prospect. If Philip Dorsett and Ted Ginn are still cashing NFL paychecks then there's a place for Ruggs. He is the most vertically explosive WR in this class by some distance and his routes/hands are better than the typical speedster. If anything, he might a high floor/low ceiling guy. He's going to be really good in his role, but I have some questions about how much volume he'll be able to handle. He may top out as a 60 catches-per-year type of WR, but I can see him becoming something better in the right system.

I think CEH and Swift are too small to be feature backs, and both will go the way of Giovani Bernard in a year or two.

Jonathan Taylor--Think he's gonna need things going well in order for him to be a great fantasy back. Don't think he's a bust, just not a top 3 or 4 performer from this class.

Ceedee Lamb--Dallas getting a bargain doesn't mean Ceedee is gonna outscore every other rookie WR. Think he might have a hard time getting a lot of looks early on. I don't quite understand how a guy goes to a crowded WR room and becomes the consensus WR1 in rookie drafts, but......OK.

Tee Higgins--I feel like there are plenty of players in the league that look like him. That small forward type, long legs. They don't work in the slot, mostly outside patterns, some jump balls......I just like the upside of several WRs behind him. Tyrell Williams seems like the guy. I don't see a path to loads of targets, and AJ Green, Boyd, and Tate is not an easy group to battle for targets with. 

Vaughn--What will this team look like a year from now? Opportunity over talent, and there's too much talent in this class to reach for opportunity.

Swift, Akers, Vaughn, Jeudy, and Reagor. 

Swift - organization 

Akers - o-line 

Vaughn - reminds me of "draft the RB that the Patriots take" that used to exist and how many of those guys ever worked out? (whether that's fair or not, just what it is for me) I've got to see what this whole experience will look like in TB. 

Jeudy - not sold on Lock, 3 good RBs on roster, Sutton and Fant as well, can/will Lock support them all? 

Reagor - Eagles seem like a team that likes to spread the ball around, and I needed to pick a 5th player. 

Chicken legs Jeudy going to bust.......

Tee Higgins. Combine jumps are a crucial litmus test of overall athleticism and his jumps were horrendous. 

Vaughn is a good candidate being a 3rd round selection. I don't think 'bust' is the right word though, rather overvalued. 

I went with Clyde. Small and not fast is a risky combination. 

cloppbeast said:

Vaughn is a good candidate being a 3rd round selection. I don't think 'bust' is the right word though, rather overvalued. 

I went with Clyde. Small and not fast is a risky combination. 

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Oof. So true. But he wows 'em with burst scores, apparently. That's his gig is that he's lightning from a standstill or change of direction.

eta* Also good point about Vaughn. That's everybody else's fault they're not coming to their senses about his talent vis a vis his situation, not his.

So far the results are Reagor, Swift, Ruggs, Swift, Higgins as the 5 players with the most votes.  There were a lot of people that were pushing Reagor as WR1 and Swift as RB1 pre-draft (myself included, at least for Swift, Reagor was my WR2), I wonder if some are reading too much into landing spot.  

Higgins, Higgins, Higgins, Higgins, and Higgins.

5 is a lot. There are 3 who I see as having clear bust-risk indicators.

Vaughn is being taken for situation over talent. Drafted in the 3rd round, and even that was a surprise. And being led by a 43-year-old quarterback it's unclear how good his situation even is or how long it'll last.

Reagor & Ruggs didn't have the level of production that you usually see among successful NFL receivers. Reagor was borderline (while Ruggs was clearly below), but Reagor also lacked the profile of big plays & YPT that I'd like to see from a speedy deep threat.

In the spirit of following instructions, I'll look over the rest of the names and see where I'm inclined to click... and it's Akers & Higgins.

Akers is my far and away #1 here.  I just don't see anything special at all when I watch him play, and the awful production bears that out (bad situation at FSU, I know).  When I watch him play it reminds me of a less decisive Ronald Jones, and it's not like Ronald Jones was all that decisive to begin with.  I am buying Henderson on the cheap not because I love him or anything, but because he's so cheap now and I don't think he's any worse than Akers who is 10x more expensive.

Ruggs I would put next.  Speedy guy gets overdrafted.  How many times have we seen this story?  I know I know, THIS guy is different from all those others.  Just like the last one was, and the one before that.

My full list is...

Akers, Ruggs, Dobbins, Lamb, Reagor, Vaughn.

Should I be happy that Pittman isn't included in the poll?  I just took Pittman at 1.12 in an FFPC draft over Higgins, Mims and Aiyuk.

From my research (reading other people's opinions on this site, and other site's rankings....but not knowing anything about college football playedrs, which I assume does not put me in the minority) it seemed like Pittman is very pro-ready, great hands, nice size, and lands in a good O with great opportunity to start from day 1.  Feels like a high-floor/"safe" pick to me. Maybe I'm afraid to swing for the fences...

joey said:

Should I be happy that Pittman isn't included in the poll?  I just took Pittman at 1.12 in an FFPC draft over Higgins, Mims and Aiyuk.

From my research (reading other people's opinions on this site, and other site's rankings....but not knowing anything about college football playedrs, which I assume does not put me in the minority) it seemed like Pittman is very pro-ready, great hands, nice size, and lands in a good O with great opportunity to start from day 1.  Feels like a high-floor/"safe" pick to me. Maybe I'm afraid to swing for the fences...

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I don't like Pittman personally.  This was just based off the top12 ADP data that the guys I referred to in my first post used.  

Dr. BD said:

IMO this WR class will ultimately go down as one of the most overrated within the last 5-10 years or so. I see a lot of them not living up to the hype. Been saying for awhile that 2021 WRs look better... 

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Interesting. I feel the opposite. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. 

I see 4-5 WR prospects I really like. The problem with this WR class isn't talent it's opportunity imo.The WR market is getting flooded. Very talented WR class last year and now here's another great class this year. Not enough targets to go around. 

Zyphros said:

I don't like Pittman personally.  This was just based off the top12 ADP data that the guys I referred to in my first post used.  

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Get out of my face with that ####.

cloppbeast said:

Get out of my face with that ####.

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??????

Dr. BD said:

Yesm too many people discarded last years class as bad, but it was very good at wr. 

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I think you were high on last years WR class. I know I liked some guys a lot last. 

"The top for 21"

Care to unpack that? Is that autocorrect?

Dr. BD said:

I was. I still am. Honestly I am interested in maybe 4 wrs from this class and they're guys I'd like to have, but dont need to have. I think this is a year you go heavy on RB and grab a WR next year. This years RBs are deeper than WR, at least for me

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It's the best WR class in its entirety that I've ever studied. That's what makes this game so fun though......we see it totally differently. 

I think it's objectively a mediocre WR + RB class, which is a weird thing to say when 26 of them were picked in the first three rounds. There are no headliners though (Calvin, Julio, Peterson, Saquon, etc) and a lot of the day two guys look like pedestrian talents to me. I'm sure we'll get some nice careers out of this bunch, but it's not one of my favorite classes at RB or WR.