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RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
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Titans selected Appalachian State RB Darrynton Evans with the No. 93 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Evans (5’10/203) evolved from being a pure home-run hitter to a three-down player in his two seasons as Appalachian State's starter, rushing for 179/1,187/7 and 6.6 yards per carry as a sophomore before setting career-highs in rushing yards (1,480), touchdowns (18), and receptions (21) last year. He showcased as the Mountaineers’ short-yardage back but profiles as a change-of-pace runner at the next level due to his smaller frame. Fortunately, Evans' one-cut style of running coupled with his 4.41 speed will transition seamlessly into any stretch-zone scheme. He also looked natural as a receiver out of the backfield, recording zero fumbles since his freshman year and being charged with just three drops on 55 career targets (via Pro Football Focus). 22 in July, Evans will try and force his way onto the field whether it's bouncing between tackles, running routes from the slot, or continuing his above-average production as a kick returner (56/1,439/3) in his rookie year behind Derrick Henry.

Apr 24, 2020, 11:18 PM ET


NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah believes Appalachian State RB Darrynton Evans may be drafted as early as the beginning of the third round. 

Not many analysts or projections have Evans (5'10/203) as a potential top-75 pick right now, which makes Jeremiah's statement all the more interesting. Jeremiah write Evans has been "extremely busy" with Skype interviews and that teams are enamored with his "speed and versatility." If Evans does indeed get drafted early in the third round, teams such as the Dolphins, Chargers, Cardinals, and Jaguars all make sense as potential landing spots in that range. 

SOURCE: Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter

Mar 30, 2020, 3:45 PM ET


NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compared Appalachian State RB Darrynton Evans to Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones.

Small, agile, capable of finding a fifth-gear in the open field: Evans (5'10/203) is everything that comes to mind when we think of what a speed back is. Zierlein also praises Evans' patience in the open-field to set up linebackers and safeties to fail, furthering his potential as a home run threat. However, Evans needs to get to the open field in the first place, and Zierlein's questions about Evans' toughness and vision between the tackles hinders his ability to get there. Evans may need some time in the league before he finds his groove.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Mar 2, 2020, 5:55 PM ET


Appalachian State RB Darrynton Evans ran the 40-yard dash in 4.42 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Evans (5'10/203) tied Louisiana's Raymond Calais for the second-fastest 40-yard dash time out of any running back in Indianapolis (Jonathan Taylor topped both by a hundredth of a second). Over his final two seasons in college, Evans' 28 runs of 20 or more yards ranked third in the FBS (hat tip to PFF on that stat). He excels when an opening presents itself, but tends to be DOA when running into contact. Evans is a late Day 3 hopeful for draft purposes.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Feb 28, 2020, 8:44 PM ET

 
Tough to evaluate these guys who play against weak competition. Right now he is a handcuff at best to a guy who is going to dominate touches.  

 
I really liked the film I watched and ended up drafting him in my rookie draft. Smallish and only just over 200 pounds  but can do some running on the inside and although I don’t think his initial burst is exceptional, when he gets going he seems to absolutely glide and eat up ground quickly. Good vision in open field, is decisive but also patient with allowing blocks to develop. He can catch although it didn’t seem to be a massive part of his game up until now. 
 

Henry makes this interesting. Either they intend to let him go end of this season, and will use him as much as humanly possible. In which case, Evans may have a chance to make it his own the following season. Or, they want Henry long term and will try to lighten his load a little bit, in which case we could see 2018 Dion Lewis levels of usage which was 155 touches and 59 receptions 

 
Ronald Jones but 2 inches shorter, and can catch. I think he’s a nice COP for Henry if he can show at this level.

 
Ronald Jones but 2 inches shorter, and can catch. I think he’s a nice COP for Henry if he can show at this level.
Henry signed a franchise tender for 2020.  He may not be with the Titans in 2021.

Henry and the team are "still committed to working for a long-term extension," per Russini and Schefter. The two sides have until July 15 to complete an extension, otherwise Henry will play under the franchise tag in 2020 before entering free agency.

 
Henry signed a franchise tender for 2020.  He may not be with the Titans in 2021.

Henry and the team are "still committed to working for a long-term extension," per Russini and Schefter. The two sides have until July 15 to complete an extension, otherwise Henry will play under the franchise tag in 2020 before entering free agency.
Sure, and that plays into his value somewhat, but a lot can happen between now and 2021. Im not sure how much value I put on him taking over next year- it’s a possibility, just like He looked good at app st even vs good teams he played, but it’s still a jump in competition that he may or may not be able to make. 

 
NFL analyst reveals two Titans rookies to keep eyes on in 2020

Excerpts:

"On offense, they're really excited about their rookie running back, Darrynton Evans, who's the guy they got out of Appalachian State," Slater said. "Now, this is a guy that they say is smart. He's got a lot of speed.

"He's no Derrick Henry replacement — of course, they used the non-exclusive franchise tag on (Henry). And while they still want to get this long-term deal done with Henry, I've been told there's no movement there just yet. Of course, they have until July 15 to get that done. But they talked a lot ahead of the draft and just needing someone to help Henry out. They want to run the ball. That's what they've really been hanging their hat on. But they've got to get him some help out there because they ride on Henry quite a bit.


However, the Titans complemented Henry's skill set with Evans, whom Tennessee took with the No. 93 overall pick in the third round. In 39 games with the Mountaineers over the course of the 2016 and 2018-19 seasons, Evans took 482 carries for 2,884 yards (6.0 average) and 25 touchdowns.

As a junior in 2019, Evans attempted 255 rushes for 1,480 yards (5.8 average) and 18 touchdowns — all single-season career-high numbers, with the exception of the yards-per-carry category. He added his personal-best receiving campaign by catching 21 passes for 198 yards (9.4 average) and five touchdowns in all 14 games.

 
Evans is a guy I'm happy to grab in the #30 overall range just on the 2021 upside. Even if he's not a workhorse RB, he could be the incumbent that has the inside track on a starting spot if a deal isn't done with Henry.

 
Evans is a guy I'm happy to grab in the #30 overall range just on the 2021 upside. Even if he's not a workhorse RB, he could be the incumbent that has the inside track on a starting spot if a deal isn't done with Henry.
It's hard for non-Henry owners to draft Evans and wait, but might be worth it.

 
The Titans' official website confirms No. 93 overall pick Darrynton Evans is expected to replace Dion Lewis as the team's No. 2 back. 

It is just confirmation of the obvious from longtime Titans reporter Jim Wyatt, as there are no other viable options on the roster. If Evans fails to impress in camp, the Titans will have to look to the free agent market to find a backup for Derrick Henry. When it comes to Evans' specific role, Wyatt mentioned little more than "rest" for Henry, though he added the team believes Evans will provide more play-making ability than Lewis. If all goes according to plan, Evans should see weekly snaps on third down.  

SOURCE: tennesseetitans.com 

Jun 7, 2020, 10:24 AM ET

 
The Titans still need a backup to Henry. Senorise Perry is probably a camp body at this point. Cameron Scarlett is another intelligent back but no one seems to say the usual nice things about a RB coming out of college regarding him. Is he the most ordinary back ever? It's kind of odd. Anywho, I doubt he's the guy either.

The Titans have been interested in several and had staff discuss adding one or two more but they want to see them first and Covid hasn't really allowed this.

On another board someone shared a CJ to Darrynton almost exact copy of a quote. I think you gotta remember no one expected CJ to be special and that it's very common to read things like he's fast but can he run between the tackles.

I think Darrynton is what the Titans have spent many years and picks and UDFAs to get- a third down back that fits the Pats role of a third down back. An important key cog, but not a fantasy target really- more NFL value.

I'd say the most excited they ever were was for Akrum Wadley. He had real good hands (even better than people thought in college) and he could catch a simple screen and be off to the races. Running between the tackles, he was fine- maybe 4 ypc, good enough for a breather, but the real value was how he could catch n run. He was good at picking up the blitz too. Sooo the Titans added plays to the playbook just for him and he rocked in the spring and start of TC. With every preseason game, he looked worse n worse and they'd realize it wasn't so much him but their lack of CBs who could tackle and backup OLBs that could rush the QB. Wadley would get cut and there would be a slew of defenders signed to try and fix what they saw but...Wadley was not good in preseason. Practices around the last week and intersquad stuff, Wadley did rock as camp closed. He did figure out how to succeed at the NFL level but Titans didn't pick him up and I think he was on n off another team. There were a ton of Titans fans that were furious he wasn't on the PS including me as he about fit whatever definition you had for the PS. Time would show he just couldn't cut it, in the CFL too. (He could make an NFL roster this summer as he's shared pics and he was never as big as he is now and clearly bulked up and ...maybe, again)

The reason I mention him is those plays they used and still do. They learned Jonnu can block better than anyone in the open field with this punch technique he learned in HS, he somehow blocks and keeps running. Corey Davis was not a great blocker but these plays had him having to improve his game and he sure did in regards to blocking. Henry lines out wide often and the QB gets to see a shift of a key defender presnap. With AJ they put in what never got a name but their big or jumbo offense that includes a bunch of big dudes out wide and a back catching a screen or just running behind the big dudes. Who you taking if it's AJ or Davis versus a CB and Henry versus a CB and Jonnu versus a S? There's a good edge blocking wise right there. The Titans would use Jonnu at FB and shift he and another TE and have Henry run behind it sometimes. One of his screen run 80 yards TDs was this offense.  Lewis lost his lateral speed and couldn't pull this off. Oh he had wiggle and still had good qualities but he couldn't bolt to the sideline anymore.

Evans just has to plug into those. They're ready for him and he seems the perfect guy for those, but they don't run it often or anything.

Don't forget, not for a second, that he must pickup the blitz first. Lewis allowed 12 sacks in 2018 and several in 2020 and everyone loved him. Henry was superb in college but if you want to ignore Murray for a sec, you could also say he didn't play a lot til he learned to pickup the blitz well.

Evans is tiny. He had to already learn technique or his QBs would have been lit up. That is a good point in drafting a small college RB, they usually already have this quality. The NFL is stronger faster etc so it should just take some adjusting and refining for him.

Still, the Titans had Jonnu at FB and Blasingame did well for a short stretch of games. They won't play Evans at the risk of losing Tannehill. They don't even have a competent backup yet. It's the same thing for like ...ever...the back isn't playing until he proves he can pickup the blitz. 

Supposing week one of preseason he nails several LBs with key hits and does great at picking up the blitz. I would then predict numbers like Lewis, not special numbers. Remember Vrabel loved Lewis and Lewis owned any deficiency so they worked around it and he was a pros pro in Vrabel's mind. 

Evans could be the KR and the Titans have had very good special teams for more than a decade and usually keep the ST staff between coaches. They have a top returner every other year and it's always someone different. So if Evans rocks as a returner this summer, don't put much stock in it unless you're in those leagues because it'll be relatively normal in the Titans world. 

 
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill “has been impressed” with rookie Darrynton Evans.

Tannehill and Evans trained together in Florida this offseason. The Titans plan to use Evans as their new Dion Lewis— a role that led to 37 percent of snaps last year. Evans is undersized and struggles between the tackles, but there’s plug-and-play upside if Derrick Henry gets injured.

RELATED: 

Derrick Henry

SOURCE: tennesseetitans.com

Jul 31, 2020, 6:50 PM ET

 
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill “has been impressed” with rookie Darrynton Evans.

Tannehill and Evans trained together in Florida this offseason. The Titans plan to use Evans as their new Dion Lewis— a role that led to 37 percent of snaps last year. Evans is undersized and struggles between the tackles, but there’s plug-and-play upside if Derrick Henry gets injured.

RELATED: 

Derrick Henry

SOURCE: tennesseetitans.com

Jul 31, 2020, 6:50 PM ET
Pretty much one of the better handcuffs in the league.  Those who own Evans and not Henry, well, you will have to wait for an injury or Evans' rookie contract to expire.  I can see non-Henry owners getting fed up with holding him and try and trade to the Henry owner, or someone else that's willing to play the waiting game.

 
Evans is one of those RBs I'm completely dismissing as a potential stud or even long-term starter due to size (weight). At 200 pounds, that's virtually an impossible task in today's NFL.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me if he's rosterable long-term or has short stretches of legit value (due to injury, etc.).

 
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Clinton Portis was 204 coming into the league wasn't he? How much a difference is 4 pounds?  :shrug:

 
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Clinton Portis was 204 coming into the league wasn't he? How much a difference is 4 pounds?  :shrug:
Yep

This size bias is usually coupled with the caveat of RB who are low weight but also not fast.

Evans 4.41 forty time.

CEH 4,6 forty time at 207 lbs

Other RB of similar weight to Evans who have been feature RBs recently

Christian McCaffrey 202 lbs

Devin Singletary 203 lbs

Devonta Freeman 206 lbs

Aaron Jones 208 lbs

Its nonsense. Mr Jones also doesn't think that players can gain weight after the combine either, but when you look at all of these players, they do gain weight after entering the NFL if their coaches want them to. If you look at Clinton Portis PFR page he is listed at 218 lbs which is likely closer to the weight he played at after his rookie season.

eta - Phillip Lindsay wasnt drafted but he was 184 lbs coming into the league.

Another player the Titans are familiar with Chris Johnson was 197 lbs coming into the league.

 
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Henry owner. Don't see evans as a pure handcuff. Still hoping for him at 28th pick.
I'm a Henry owner and I passed on Evans at 2.12 in favor of Antonio Gibson and I don't feel an ounce of regret.  If Evans had fallen to 3.12 I would have taken him but he didn't. I will wait until Evans owner has to make a roster cut for a bye week filler or gets tired of waiting. You don't win or lose leagues by giving up too much for a player like Evans who is a handcuff.

 
To be clear, it's Evans' skill set coupled with his weight & frame (the whole package as it relates to being a long-term starter in the NFL).

I realize players can gain weight, but often to their detriment. In Evans' case, he doesn't have enough lead in his ### in relation to his other skills. At 200 pounds (in today's NFL), you better be a badass & that's not Evans.

I'm quite confident it's not happening for Evans, but like I said, SOME success wouldn't surprise me.

 
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I'm a Henry owner and I passed on Evans at 2.12 in favor of Antonio Gibson and I don't feel an ounce of regret.  If Evans had fallen to 3.12 I would have taken him but he didn't. I will wait until Evans owner has to make a roster cut for a bye week filler or gets tired of waiting. You don't win or lose leagues by giving up too much for a player like Evans who is a handcuff.
WAY, WAY better pick (Gibson, even owning Henry).

 
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BTW, eliminating RBs is actually easier than hitting on them.

I'd put Evans' chances at near zero (to be clear, for a long-term NFL starter or even long-term sustained FF success).

 
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Recently Arthur Smith refused to answer Qs about his inclusion in the offense but deflecting to other backs. I don't know how they test a rookie RB at blitz pickup without a preseason, but somehow we have to know he can handle that before he's worth a pick for 2020

 
Recently Arthur Smith refused to answer Qs about his inclusion in the offense but deflecting to other backs. I don't know how they test a rookie RB at blitz pickup without a preseason, but somehow we have to know he can handle that before he's worth a pick for 2020
Its my understanding from listening to Mike Zimmer that they will have some full contact practices where these things can be tested.

 
No. I simply mean it’s easier to dismiss RBs than hit on them. 

You might look at it as the same thing, but I’ve been successful with this approach for the smaller (lighter) RBs.
Would you say your method was successful in regards to your opinion about Aaron Jones vs. Jamal Williams?

I think that is where the bulk of the discussion regarding this took place on this forum.

 
No. I simply mean it’s easier to dismiss RBs than hit on them. 

You might look at it as the same thing, but I’ve been successful with this approach for the smaller (lighter) RBs.
Amazing how you’ve been allowed to do this for years but good posters have gotten banned from your trolling. It’s almost like you’re staff or friends with staff.

 
Would you say your method was successful in regards to your opinion about Aaron Jones vs. Jamal Williams?

I think that is where the bulk of the discussion regarding this took place on this forum.
LOL. There's been a lot of small RBs I've talked about. I tried telling people about Abdullah & Darrell Henderson, for instance (& received a bunch of backlash on both). The latter was one of the more puzzling ones I've ever encountered here (the love for him).

So Jones has had long-term success? That's the one you're hanging your hat on?

 
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LOL. There's been a lot of small RBs I've talked about. I tried telling people about Abdullah & Darrell Henderson, for instance. The latter was one of the more puzzling ones I've ever encountered here (the love for him).

So Jones has had long-term success? That's the one you're hanging your hat on?
I am not hanging my hat on anything.

I am trying to figure out if you have learned anything over the last 3 years or not?

 
I am not hanging my hat on anything.

I am trying to figure out if you have learned anything over the last 3 years or not?
Haha. Something is telling me you just don't quite grasp the concept.

It's ok. Not everyone gets it or if even wants to apply it.

I have a few unorthodox methods for FF & sometimes it irritates people for some reason, but they work quite well statistically (their track record).

 
Amazing how you’ve been allowed to do this for years but good posters have gotten banned from your trolling. It’s almost like you’re staff or friends with staff.
I've been allowed to do what? Share a method that has a very good track record & has helped me in the hobby we all enjoy?

That's trolling now?

🤣

 
Haha. Something is telling me you just don't quite grasp the concept.

It's ok. Not everyone gets it or if even wants to apply it.

I have a few unorthodox methods for FF & sometimes it irritates people for some reason, but they work quite well statistically (their track record).
Yeah in previous discussion I did try to pin down what the concept is, what is the method for separating good small RB by your definition from bad small RB.

I still dont know. You haven't explained how you differentiate in a way that I can test it.

Your previous comments about this were focused on weight and you seem to be singing the same tune here in regards to that now with Evans.

You say it has been successful for you but in the case of Aaron Jones that does not seem to be the case.

In discussion about Aaron Jones you say a RB with lighter weight can still be a feature RB if they also have good speed. There are other people who share this view with you.

Evans 4.41 forty time is above average speed for a RB.

 
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Yeah in previous discussion I did try to pin down what the concept is, what is the method for separating good small RB by your definition from bad small RB.

I still dont know. You haven't explained how you differentiate in a way that I can test it.

Your previous comments about this were focused on weight and you seem to be singing the same tune here in regards to that now with Evans.

You say it has been successful for you but in the case of Aaron Jones that does not seem to be the case.
I don't have time to go into it again right now (done it several times), but it's not a strict formula. The theory starts being applied when RBs are below 215 (the farther away from 215 the more the theory is applied). It essentially comes down to are they dynamic enough in relation to their size (weight) using both metrics & eyeball scouting.

It's a rather simple concept, albeit unorthodox. All I can do is share my experience & I have an excellent track record applying it.

 
I don't have time to go into it again right now (done it several times), but it's not a strict formula. The theory starts being applied when RBs are below 215 (the farther away from 215 the more the theory is applied). It essentially comes down to are they dynamic enough in relation to their size (weight) using both metrics & eyeball scouting.

It's a rather simple concept, albeit unorthodox. All I can do is share my experience & I have an excellent track record applying it.
Except for Aaron Jones right?

I dont think your method is unorthodox at all. Many people think a RB needs to be bigger and that bigger is better.

Except when it isn't.

I would say you are applying selective memory here as far as your success. Many good RB are being eliminated from consideration by your method and maybe you could gain something from acknowledging that.

As far as dynamism goes what is Evans lacking? He has good timed speed and was very productive at the college level. There must be some other reason why you dont think he will not be a successful NFL RB besides his weight at the combine right?

 
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Except for Aaron Jones right?

I dont think your method is unorthodox at all. Many people think a RB needs to be bigger and that bigger is better.

Except when it isn't.

I would say you are applying selective memory here as far as your success. Many good RB are being eliminated from consideration by your method and maybe you could gain something from acknowledging that.

As far as dynamism goes what is Evans lacking? He has good timed speed and was very productive at the college level. There must be some other reason why you dont think he will be a successful NFL RB besides his weight at the combine right?
You think Jones will have long-term success? You're acting like size (weight) isn't an issue for pro scouts. Your preoccupation with this is really puzzling.

I have a LONG track record of this working, going back to Chris Johnson, who I loved (& had a lot of debates about him with people on this forum). Some small (light) RBs have it, some don't (the vast majority don't). I was also in on Portis, who I saw you mention (drafted him in multiple dynasty leagues).

It works for me. I'm not sure what else to tell you.

 
Except for Aaron Jones right?

I dont think your method is unorthodox at all. Many people think a RB needs to be bigger and that bigger is better.

Except when it isn't.

I would say you are applying selective memory here as far as your success. Many good RB are being eliminated from consideration by your method and maybe you could gain something from acknowledging that.

As far as dynamism goes what is Evans lacking? He has good timed speed and was very productive at the college level. There must be some other reason why you dont think he will be a successful NFL RB besides his weight at the combine right?
Forgot to say I dismissed Evans out of the gate as far as a long-term NFL starter. In short, he doesn't have near enough lead in his ### given his skill set.

But by all means, draft him or keep him if you already own him. Not here to change your mind.

 
You think Jones will have long-term success? You're acting like size (weight) isn't an issue for pro scouts. Your preoccupation with this is really puzzling.

I have a LONG track record of this working, going back to Chris Johnson, who I loved (& had a lot of debates about him with people on this forum). Some small (light) RBs have it, some don't (the vast majority don't). I was also in on Portis, who I saw you mention (drafted him in multiple dynasty leagues).

It works for me. I'm not sure what else to tell you.
I think that long term success is very rare for any RB. Look at Todd Gurley.

For the best of the best the average number of top 24 seasons for a RB in FF is two. I don't think you would say two years is long term? So by that definition almost no RB has long term success.

Aaron Jones pretty good season last year, yet I guess you are saying he needs to sustain that for I dont know, how long? How long for you to say yeah maybe I was wrong about him?

That is how selective memory works. You keep moving the sticks when things contradict your opinion about being right and working for you.

Size and weight is something you hear scouts and coaches talk about all the time. I am preoccupied with dispelling myths more than anything.

As far as Evans goes I don't see him being a feature RB as long as Derrick Henry is in his way. Some think he could be if Henry was out of the picture. I don't have a strong option about it either way, but if he isn't I dont think it has much to do with the weight he was at the combine.

 
I think that long term success is very rare for any RB. Look at Todd Gurley.

For the best of the best the average number of top 24 seasons for a RB in FF is two. I don't think you would say two years is long term? So by that definition almost no RB has long term success.

Aaron Jones pretty good season last year, yet I guess you are saying he needs to sustain that for I dont know, how long? How long for you to say yeah maybe I was wrong about him?

That is how selective memory works. You keep moving the sticks when things contradict your opinion about being right and working for you.

Size and weight is something you hear scouts and coaches talk about all the time. I am preoccupied with dispelling myths more than anything.

As far as Evans goes I don't see him being a feature RB as long as Derrick Henry is in his way. Some think he could be if Henry was out of the picture. I don't have a strong option about it either way, but if he isn't I dont think it has much to do with the weight he was at the combine.
I'm not moving the sticks at all. My advice is to avoid Evans.

You won't be happy with him, with or without Henry (long-term).

RBs have short lives, but it's still important to get the best bang for your buck. Guys like Evans aren't going to cut the mustard. That said, if you're just looking at him as a handcuff or whatever, ok.

 
I think that long term success is very rare for any RB. Look at Todd Gurley.

For the best of the best the average number of top 24 seasons for a RB in FF is two. I don't think you would say two years is long term? So by that definition almost no RB has long term success.

Aaron Jones pretty good season last year, yet I guess you are saying he needs to sustain that for I dont know, how long? How long for you to say yeah maybe I was wrong about him?

That is how selective memory works. You keep moving the sticks when things contradict your opinion about being right and working for you.

Size and weight is something you hear scouts and coaches talk about all the time. I am preoccupied with dispelling myths more than anything.

As far as Evans goes I don't see him being a feature RB as long as Derrick Henry is in his way. Some think he could be if Henry was out of the picture. I don't have a strong option about it either way, but if he isn't I dont think it has much to do with the weight he was at the combine.
BTW, it most DEFINITELY has a lot to do with Evans' weight.

It's not rocket science.

 
Football Jones said:
BTW, it most DEFINITELY has a lot to do with Evans' weight.

It's not rocket science.
No offense, but I'm not sure what it is.

Gotta have respect though, standing behind your theory despite the evidence against it.

 
No offense, but I'm not sure what it is.

Gotta have respect though, standing behind your theory despite the evidence against it.
It's really not that hard to grasp. It just isn't.

It's mostly eyeball scouting along with applying a guide. In fact, different people could have a different version of it & still be successful.

Time after time after time this process has worked. Most people have similar thoughts about smaller (lighter) RBs, but simply don't use a particular method of quantifying it.

 
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Football Jones said:
No. I simply mean it’s easier to dismiss RBs than hit on them. 

You might look at it as the same thing, but I’ve been successful with this approach for the smaller (lighter) RBs.
I have a hard time conversing with you because while you give an opinion on Evans you use a lot of words to say nothing.  I appreciate the opinion to avoid Evans.  Is there someone in that range (3rd round rookie pick) you like more.  To me if I owned Henry it seems like a pretty cheap handcuff.

 
I have a hard time conversing with you because while you give an opinion on Evans you use a lot of words to say nothing.  I appreciate the opinion to avoid Evans.  Is there someone in that range (3rd round rookie pick) you like more.  To me if I owned Henry it seems like a pretty cheap handcuff.
I guess that's a compliment (kinda, LOL). Look, my method for this isn't the easiest thing to explain because the big variable is the eyeball scouting. The general concept should be easy to understand, though. Granted, I didn't go into a lot of detail, but in the SP, you pick your battles. I know from past experience with this, it's only going to bring a bunch of nonsense (& usually from the same people) so I'm going to pass on further explanations for the sake of the thread. Bottom line, either you take something from it or you don't. If not, no biggie. We all choose who we take advice from.

As far as your other question, I don't have a big problem taking Evans in the 3rd as a handcuff, but from what I saw earlier this offseason, he was going in the mid-2nd. Maybe that was due to the uncertainty of Henry signing long-term, but even so, I believe it was a mistake (even if Henry hadn't signed). A good example is somebody taking Evans over Gibson. While Gibson is far from a sure thing, he's a much better 2nd round pick, IMO.

 
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Evans played 35 miles from where we are. That kid was explosive, huge heart, and a good player. To say he can't make it or be impactful in FF because of his weight before ever taking a snap just seems silly to me. I get that metrics are important, but there are always exceptions to the rule. There is a list of great RBs that came into the league weighing 205 pounds or less- Barry Sanders, Tiki Barber, Chris Johnson, Clinton Portis to name a few.  

 
So I was curious about the small running back success rate and did a search of every season by RBs 205 pounds or less over the last five seasons and sorted by PPR fantasy points. I chose PPR because presumably this is the format small backs are most likely to have success and I chose fantasy points because that's what we really care about and this way receiving and rushing points are included altogether.

I found 206 discrete seasons by RBs 205 or less in the past five years.

Out of 206 seasons, 25 seasons produced 160 fantasy points or more. Among these successful seasons, seven RBs had more than one season above 160 fantasy points in the past five seasons:

McCaffrey 3, Ekeler 2, James White 3, Tarik Cohen 2, Philip Lindsay 2, Theo Riddick 2, Dion Lewis 2. I would suggest that if there is a secret sauce to success for small backs in the modern NFL we should look at these backs and look for commonalities in terms of skills and situations.  Not sure what that might be and don't have time to delve into this farther atm.

Overall, 25 successful season out of 206 seasons is not a high success rate but how does it compare to RBs 206 and heavier?

http://pfref.com/tiny/gTfIM

So it turns out there are many more successful seasons for players 206 and heavier: 103.  But there are many more seasons played by such players: 607. Obviously there are more RBs above 206 so the dataset is larger. 

But the success rate is higher for larger backs: 17% vs 12%.

http://pfref.com/tiny/OE9mm

Conclusion:

There is a statistical correlation between backs above 206 and fantasy success, even in PPR.

There are a select few small backs who do find success and the ones that have can do so for more than one season--ie., they can provide consistent fantasy production.

All things equal, drafting a back above 206 is more likely to succeed but don't ignore the small guys as a rule.

I would like to hear more about what separates the small backs who have found consistent and recent success.

 
Here is what I see in terms of commonalities between those successful small backs in last five years.

1. Forty times above 50th percentile and generally 80th percentile or higher. The one glaring exception was Theo Riddick.  

2. Agility scores could compensate for lower forty time or amplify a good time. 

3. The strongest correlation was College Dominator percentage, however, McCaffrey was 98th percentile; Ekeler 96th percentile; Cohen 91st percentile; Lindsay 87th percentile; Riddick only 37th percentile; Lewis 79th percentile. James White is an outlier here at only 13.2% but he compensates by having a high target percentage in the 86th percentile.

4. In most cases two or more years of high end production in college--at least 1500 yards combined rushing/receiving. McCaffrey had 2 season; Ekeler 3; Cohen 3; Lindsay 2; Riddick 0; Lewis 2. White is also an outlier here with only 1 season above 500 combined yards. In retrospect this is probably because Wisconsin doesn't use backs that much in the passing game and this turns out to be one of White's strengths.

Riddick is a complete outlier and there was no way to predict his success, which it turns out is probably not going to be a long lasting thing.  The small backs who were consistently succesful in NFL fantasy production generally displayed above average 40 times and/or agility, almost universally had an exceptional college dominator score, and had at least two years of high end college production (above 1500 combined yards).

Darrynton Evans has the forty time as noted by another poster--4.41 is 96th percentile. He didn't take the agility test so we don't have that data point.

His dominator score of 31.5 and 72nd percentile is within the range we are seeing although lower than all but Riddick.  Not a deal breaker but not as positive as most of these successful small backs.

His production includes one year out of 3 of exceptional production which is less than any of these guys except Riddick.

Based on this Evans could have one or two successful fantasy NFL seasons, but it doesn't seem likely to me. If you are drafting him in the mid to late 3rd round that seems right but I wouldn't reach for him.

 
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Here is what I see in terms of commonalities between those successful small backs in last five years.

1. Forty times above 50th percentile and generally 80th percentile or higher. The one glaring exception was Theo Riddick.  

2. Agility scores could compensate for lower forty time or amplify a good time. 

3. The strongest correlation was College Dominator percentage, however, McCaffrey was 98th percentile; Ekeler 96th percentile; Cohen 91st percentile; Lindsay 87th percentile; Riddick only 37th percentile; Lewis 79th percentile. James White is an outlier here at only 13.2% but he compensates by having a high target percentage in the 86th percentile.

4. In most cases two or more years of high end production in college--at least 1500 yards combined rushing/receiving. McCaffrey had 2 season; Ekeler 3; Cohen 3; Lindsay 2; Riddick 0; Lewis 2. White is also an outlier here with only 1 season above 500 combined yards. In retrospect this is probably because Wisconsin doesn't use backs that much in the passing game and this turns out to be one of White's strengths.

Riddick is a complete outlier and there was no way to predict his success, which it turns out is probably not going to be a long lasting thing.  The small backs who were consistently succesful in NFL fantasy production generally displayed above average 40 times and/or agility, almost universally had an exceptional college dominator score, and had at least two years of high end college production (above 1500 combined yards).

Darrynton Evans has the forty time as noted by another poster--4.41 is 96th percentile. He didn't take the agility test so we don't have that data point.

His dominator score of 31.5 and 72nd percentile is within the range we are seeing although lower than all but Riddick.  Not a deal breaker but not as positive as most of these successful small backs.

His production includes one year out of 3 of exceptional production which is less than any of these guys except Riddick.

Based on this Evans could have one or two successful fantasy NFL seasons, but it doesn't seem likely to me. If you are drafting him in the mid to late 3rd round that seems right but I wouldn't reach for him.
Thanks for putting in the effort. It’s nice to have some actual data to discuss instead of just blah blah blah

 

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