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Who is the next Supreme Court Justice (1 Viewer)

supermike80

Footballguy
RBG seems to be in pretty bad shape.   Are there conservative and or centrist replacements that this board would support?

Not saying that's who Trump will nominate of course, but curious who you all would think was acceptable.

 
Zero chance that anyone gets through the approval process in 2020.  That precedent has been established.  After that, I suppose it depends who wins the election.

 
No way we get another Supreme Court Justice nominee till after the election.   We are 6 months away from a election in the middle of Covid19.   

 
Zero chance that anyone gets through the approval process in 2020.  That precedent has been established.  After that, I suppose it depends who wins the election.
Don't kid yourself. McConnell and Trump have destroyed precedents left and right. McConnell would skip all hearings, if he could, or limit them, to push anyone through to replace either of the four justices. You're talking about people that do not follow rules that they even set up.

 
Just my opinion but I think Trump would not nominate anyone until after the election. 
 

Trump hates losing, and pushing through a SC nominee prior to the election is a tacit admission that he thinks he would lose. 
 

Instead, I think Trump uses it as an election issue to rally the base. 
 

having said that, Trump could nominate someone after the election and McConnell would get him/her confirmed before Inauguration Day...

 
If something happens to RBG, I can see Trump nominating someone, I can see McConnell trying to move it forward, but I think some Republican Senators would hesitate. Maybe. 
I could see them hesitating on something Trump related but I don't think they would drag their feet on appointing a conservative SC judge

 
No way we get another Supreme Court Justice nominee till after the election.   We are 6 months away from a election in the middle of Covid19.   
That only applies when the majority says so.  And don't pretend it would not work both ways.  

 
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I think that if both Trump and McConnell lost their re-election campaigns and RBG died the day before the newly elected Democratic Senate was sworn in, the GOP would still try to jam someone through.

As for the OP's question of who I would support, I suppose I could come up with a few names, but c'mon, who are we kidding here? SCOTUS has become the political equivalent of Jerry Seinfeld's line about how rooting for sports teams is just rooting for laundry. Pretty much the only criteria any of us use to evaluate justices these days is, "Will they vote the way I want them to vote?" (Oh, and also their age, since we want to make sure our side will have someone on the bench for a good three or four decades). Literally everything else, from judicial philosophies to scandals, is just window dressing.

So if I'm being completely honest, there's no one Trump could nominate who I would support. And the same is true of pretty much everyone else on this board (just replace "support" with "oppose" if you're a conservative). 

 
If there is an opening, Trump and McConnell will fill it right up until January 20. 

The more interesting question is what happens if a Dem wins the Presidency and the Repubs maintain the Senate. At that point, I reckon we will have an 8 person court for a while.

 
If there is an opening, Trump and McConnell will fill it right up until January 20. 

The more interesting question is what happens if a Dem wins the Presidency and the Repubs maintain the Senate. At that point, I reckon we will have an 8 person court for a while.
For a few years...that would just give democrats all the more material to win back the Senate.  At some point, the complete and total obstruction that is Mitch McConnell won't have power to do so anymore.

 
This defense is getting used a lot lately. We have to pretend that Democrats would do the same when Republicans are blatantly hypocritical, because Republicans say so.  
It's how they justified delaying Scalia's replacement. The mantra was repeated over and over... "The Democrats would do the same. We are just doing what the Democrats would do." That works until it doesn't work. I guarantee Clinton, Biden, or Sanders, would not be treating Covid like Trump has nor would a Democratic senate treat the Supreme Court like McConnell did/has.

 
Just my opinion but I think Trump would not nominate anyone until after the election. 
 

Trump hates losing, and pushing through a SC nominee prior to the election is a tacit admission that he thinks he would lose. 
 

Instead, I think Trump uses it as an election issue to rally the base. 
 

having said that, Trump could nominate someone after the election and McConnell would get him/her confirmed before Inauguration Day...
agree with this

 
This defense is getting used a lot lately. We have to pretend that Democrats would do the same when Republicans are blatantly hypocritical, because Republicans say so.  
Democrats have sunk to far lower levels to torpedo a nomination....see Bork, see Thomas, see Kavanaugh.  The fact that is was the Democratic leadership who first threaten such a tactic during the Bush years pretty much drives the nail in the coffin that Democrats would do exactly the same thing given the circumstances.

 
Democrats have sunk to far lower levels to torpedo a nomination....see Bork, see Thomas, see Kavanaugh.  The fact that is was the Democratic leadership who first threaten such a tactic during the Bush years pretty much drives the nail in the coffin that Democrats would do exactly the same thing given the circumstances.
Really?

Lower levels than not even allowing discussion on the guy or a vote for a very qualified judge?  Come on...Thomas and Kavanaugh made it to the bench...to claim it was lower levels than what McConnell did is just ridiculous.

Also...Bork had major issues that were known before he was nominated...Reagan was even warned about it.  And there was still discussion and a vote on the guy.  He got his day "in court" so to say.

Garland never got that...didn't even get a chance.  There is no low worse than being too scared to even bring a guy up for discussion and vote.  None.

 
Really?

Lower levels than not even allowing discussion on the guy or a vote for a very qualified judge?  Come on...Thomas and Kavanaugh made it to the bench...to claim it was lower levels than what McConnell did is just ridiculous.

Also...Bork had major issues that were known before he was nominated...Reagan was even warned about it.  And there was still discussion and a vote on the guy.  He got his day "in court" so to say.

Garland never got that...didn't even get a chance.  There is no low worse than being too scared to even bring a guy up for discussion and vote.  None.
It is within their power to sit on/postpone a nominations and/or reject them.  There have been 14 SC judges who have either had their nomination lapse or postponed.  Kavanaugh was the first judge to have quotes written in his yearbook scruntinized.  Really quite an embarrassment and possibly the all-time low point in SC confirmation process.

 
If there is an opening, Trump and McConnell will fill it right up until January 20. 

The more interesting question is what happens if a Dem wins the Presidency and the Repubs maintain the Senate. At that point, I reckon we will have an 8 person court for a while.
I think Clarence Thomas will go down as the last Justice to be confirmed by a majority of the opposite party for a long time

 
It is within their power to sit on/postpone a nominations and/or reject them.  There have been 14 SC judges who have either had their nomination lapse or postponed.  Kavanaugh was the first judge to have quotes written in his yearbook scruntinized.  Really quite an embarrassment and possibly the all-time low point in SC confirmation process.
I don't think I claimed anything about it being within their power.

I stated that it was far lower to obstruct and not even discuss or vote on a qualified person like Garland...than it was to scrutinize and ultimately discuss and vote on other candidates.

The all time low is still McConnell obstructing...Kavanaugh was scrutinized, it was ugly, his responses were ugly...but he is still a Supreme Court Justice for life...Garland never got such a chance.

 
I don't think I claimed anything about it being within their power.

I stated that it was far lower to obstruct and not even discuss or vote on a qualified person like Garland...than it was to scrutinize and ultimately discuss and vote on other candidates.

The all time low is still McConnell obstructing...Kavanaugh was scrutinized, it was ugly, his responses were ugly...but he is still a Supreme Court Justice for life...Garland never got such a chance.
It is a matter of opinion on which is worse.  But I am 1000 percent confident the Democrats would have done the exact same thing.  That is just a matter of believing the words out of their mouths.  

 
Even assuming for the sake of argument that "we are doing X because the other side would do X if the situation is reversed" is true, how do we get out of that kind of ### for tat behavior?  Shouldn't we ask that "our side", whichever one it is, behave like civilized grownups instead of eight-year olds throwing a tantrum?

 
Even assuming for the sake of argument that "we are doing X because the other side would do X if the situation is reversed" is true, how do we get out of that kind of ### for tat behavior?  Shouldn't we ask that "our side", whichever one it is, behave like civilized grownups instead of eight-year olds throwing a tantrum?
I agree that the whole judge confirmation process has become a 100 percent political cluster.  But how do you reset it?  It just gets worse and worse every time around.  I find it repugnant that people think their side is superior.  This is absolutely a case of both sides keep putting gas on the fire.   

 
Even assuming for the sake of argument that "we are doing X because the other side would do X if the situation is reversed" is true, how do we get out of that kind of ### for tat behavior?  Shouldn't we ask that "our side", whichever one it is, behave like civilized grownups instead of eight-year olds throwing a tantrum?
I agree that the whole judge confirmation process has become a 100 percent political cluster.  But how do you reset it?  It just gets worse and worse every time around.  I find it repugnant that people think their side is superior.  This is absolutely a case of both sides keep putting gas on the fire. 
Perhaps the next time, rank and file needs to demand that their leaders act like grownups.  Voters need to demand that their rank-and-file representatives act like grownups.  Above all, the leaders need to stop acting like children, and their supporters need to stop cheering them on when they do so.

So, take it upon yourself.  The next time Trump or McConnell does something stupid or vile and the media is critical, stand up and say "Mr. McConnell, I support some of your policies, but the media is right to criticize you for X.  In this instance, you're being an ###." or "Mr. Trump, act like a grownup.  Stop calling people names.  Stop complaining about the media.  Treat people right and lead by example."  If you (the royal you) don't do that, you're part of the problem.

 
It is a matter of opinion on which is worse.  But I am 1000 percent confident the Democrats would have done the exact same thing.  That is just a matter of believing the words out of their mouths.  
And I don't really care about speculating what the Democrats would have supposedly done.  We have seen others get their day to be discussed and voted on...it was a republican who actually blocked it, no need to speculate...McConnell did this.

 
And I don't really care about speculating what the Democrats would have supposedly done.  We have seen others get their day to be discussed and voted on...it was a republican who actually blocked it, no need to speculate...McConnell did this.
There is no need to speculate the garbage that the Democrats have pulled over the years.  

 
There is no need to speculate the garbage that the Democrats have pulled over the years.  
Sure there is...because you are literally speculating what the Democrats would do.  Over the years, while they had heavy scrutiny, judges were still discussed and voted on as intended.

 
Even assuming for the sake of argument that "we are doing X because the other side would do X if the situation is reversed" is true, how do we get out of that kind of ### for tat behavior?  Shouldn't we ask that "our side", whichever one it is, behave like civilized grownups instead of eight-year olds throwing a tantrum?
I agree that the whole judge confirmation process has become a 100 percent political cluster.  But how do you reset it?  It just gets worse and worse every time around.  I find it repugnant that people think their side is superior.  This is absolutely a case of both sides keep putting gas on the fire. 
Perhaps the next time, rank and file needs to demand that their leaders act like grownups.  Voters need to demand that their rank-and-file representatives act like grownups.  Above all, the leaders need to stop acting like children, and their supporters need to stop cheering them on when they do so.
In my view the only way to fix this problem is a constitutional amendment that ends lifetime tenure for Supreme Court Justices.

 
Fun though it may be to make fun of Donald's foibles, we're wasting our time, according to American Conservative editor Rod Dreher. About as socially conservative as they come, Dreher says that evangelicals and other socons have made their peace with Trump's character shortcomings. Though most of them are loath to admit it, Dreher acknowledges that the cultural right has lost the culture wars and demographic trends will ensure that continuance for years to come. Trump and his appointments to the courts are seen as the last bastions of protection for "religious freedom" against continuing attacks by an increasingly secular left. 

Conservatives are losing the under 40 vote by close to 30 points and that age plateau will only tick higher in the years to come. So yeah, if Don loses in November and one of the lefty judges croaks before Inauguration Day, he and Mitch are gonna ram a last minute appointment through, charges of hypocrisy be damned. If the Senate and White House turn blue, Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas will still be there to block anything remotely questionable that goes against conservative interests.

 
Fun though it may be to make fun of Donald's foibles, we're wasting our time, according to American Conservative editor Rod Dreher. About as socially conservative as they come, Dreher says that evangelicals and other socons have made their peace with Trump's character shortcomings. Though most of them are loath to admit it, Dreher acknowledges that the cultural right has lost the culture wars and demographic trends will ensure that continuance for years to come. Trump and his appointments to the courts are seen as the last bastions of protection for "religious freedom" against continuing attacks by an increasingly secular left. 

Conservatives are losing the under 40 vote by close to 30 points and that age plateau will only tick higher in the years to come. So yeah, if Don loses in November and one of the lefty judges croaks before Inauguration Day, he and Mitch are gonna ram a last minute appointment through, charges of hypocrisy be damned. If the Senate and White House turn blue, Brett Kavanaugh and Clarence Thomas will still be there to block anything remotely questionable that goes against conservative interests.
Hypocrisy?  Neither party knows the meaning of that word..not sure they ever did.

 
I'm in favor.  18-year terms, staggered by 2 years, every POTUS nominates 2 per 4-year term.

Doesn't solve the overall problem of bad behavior and constituents encouraging it, though.
I'm come around to this view in a big way in recent years. Our current system has basically evolved to this:

  • Justices wait to retire until their party controls the White House and the Senate
  • As long as the new appointment doesn't shift the ideological balance of the court, the minority goes through the motions but doesn't put up too much of a fight
  • Because we have to pretend that we're not all keeping score, nominations are generally fought over procedural questions and, when applicable, personal scandals
  • The only way the ideological balance can possibly shift is if a justice dies or otherwise leaves unexpectedly
  • Even then, the replacement will only be seated if the same party controls the White House and Senate. Otherwise, the seat will remain vacant until they are once again under unified control
  • Because of the importance of lifetime appointments, nominees will be accomplished enough to be plausible candidates but still young enough that they can be expected to serve for 30-40 years. That generally means they are hyper-accomplished careerists who have trod the same well-worn path (Ivy League law school, clerkship, political appointments but nothing too controversial and then a Federal judgeship). They are almost always in their late 40s/early 50s, although it wouldn't surprise me if that number starts to creep downward, even if it means slightly less qualified nominees.
  • It also turns us all into ghoulish actuaries. There were legit people worried about Sotomayor because she has diabetes, and if anyone had actually expected Garland to be confirmed there would probably have been grumbling about him being in his 60s
That's an absolutely crazy system. It's a little like our healthcare -- if you proposed creating a system like that, everyone would reject it out of hand.

I like the idea of fixed terms, although negotiating the transition would probably be an insurmountable hurdle, simply because it would be viewed as zero-sum. Actually, implementing any changes is probably impossible, because whichever party holds the ideological balance will have a strong incentive to maintain the status quo.

 
Nope.  
 

Kavanaugh wasn’t nominated until July and still got confirmed before the 2018 election.  I think McConnell would push through even if the vacancy happened in September.
Because he has zero principles. 

What should be said of people who are okay with, or vocally supportive of, that? And what are we allowed to say about that around here without being sanctioned?

 
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Because he has zero principles. 

What should be said of people who are okay with, or vocally supportive of, that? And what are we allowed to say about that around here without being sanctioned?
Democrats would do it too if they had the power.  They don't.  But I don't believe for a second they wouldn't do the same thing.  It's politics.  It sucks, but it is how the game is played.

 
Democrats would do it too if they had the power.  They don't.  But I don't believe for a second they wouldn't do the same thing.  It's politics.  It sucks, but it is how the game is played.
What's even worse is that we've reached the stage where each side's actions can be justified by pointing to the other side's transgressions. Republicans have been "Because Bork"-ing for 30 years now, and I can promise you Democrats will be "Because Garland"-ing for the next 30.

 
Democrats would do it too if they had the power.  They don't.  But I don't believe for a second they wouldn't do the same thing.  It's politics.  It sucks, but it is how the game is played.
Yeah, but in this neck of the woods the only bad guys are Republicans. 

 
Democrats would do it too if they had the power.  They don't.  But I don't believe for a second they wouldn't do the same thing.  It's politics.  It sucks, but it is how the game is played.
You can use that hypothetical to justify literally anything under the sun, which is exactly what the GOP does. 

But that's all it is, a hypothetical. In the world of actual facts, McConnell is the only one who has actually done it. And, at the time, he made a bad faith argument that it just made sense and wasn't partisan at all. That isn't surprising at all, since the man is a liar who holds no principles other than to hold onto power by any means necessary.

 

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