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Mjolnirs

Official 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Iota

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Posted (edited)

Marco has been named. 
 

<paulharveyvoice>page three</paulharveyvoice>

Edited by Mjolnirs

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5pm update from NHC has both Laura and Marco heading towards Louisiana, at Hurricane strength.  

Monday for Marco, Wednesday for Laura.    Crazy.

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Yawn. It’s 2020. Wake me up when they combine into a superstorm. 

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3 hours ago, kodycutter said:

5pm update from NHC has both Laura and Marco heading towards Louisiana, at Hurricane strength.  

Monday for Marco, Wednesday for Laura.    Crazy.

Probably still enough time for Laura's predicted path to move some more. For Marco, that thing is booking -- less than 48 hours out ... track should be more or less locked in.

Both storms -- right now -- seem to be predicted to move over southeast Louisiana as fast-moving Cat 1s. If they keep moving fast, it won't be so bad -- even if there is a double-whammy in roughly the same area.

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20 hours ago, Doug B said:
On 8/22/2020 at 4:21 PM, kodycutter said:

5pm update from NHC has both Laura and Marco heading towards Louisiana, at Hurricane strength.  

Monday for Marco, Wednesday for Laura.    Crazy.

Probably still enough time for Laura's predicted path to move some more. For Marco, that thing is booking -- less than 48 hours out ... track should be more or less locked in.

Both storms -- right now -- seem to be predicted to move over southeast Louisiana as fast-moving Cat 1s. If they keep moving fast, it won't be so bad -- even if there is a double-whammy in roughly the same area.

24 hours later ... the New Orleans metro is now out of both cones. Marco will bring bracing winds and some extra rain locally, but will not be a damaging storm. Laura looks to pack a bigger punch as its track continues to sweep westward. Wouldn't be surprised to see Laura make landfall as far west as Freeport/Lake Jackson, TX, southwest of Galveston Island.

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So Laura may look a bit disorganized now as Cuba poses a problem but when the storm gets to the gulf it could reorganize quickly. 

06z GFS model shows Laura as a possible strong Cat3 at landfall near LA/TX border. Forecast pressure down to 948 mb.

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Jim Cantore in Nola isn’t a good thing. 

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2 hours ago, Osaurus said:

Jim Cantore in Nola isn’t a good thing. 

He'll head down I-10 to Lake Charles after Marco hits so he can frolic in Laura. 

I do public information for local government in Lake Charles.  I got an email from the producer at the Weather Channel who I dealt with during Harvey making sure I was still his contact.  

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3 hours ago, Osaurus said:

Jim Cantore in Nola isn’t a good thing. 

Nice and sunny day here in NOLA. He missed his mark this time if his goal was to get bad weather and blowing debris on camera.

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5 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Nice and sunny day here in NOLA. He missed his mark this time if his goal was to get bad weather and blowing debris on camera.

 

2 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Ha yeah it's sunny.

We’re getting a nice breeze in Tampa right now off of Marco, but the oppressive heat/humidity is coming later. Ugh. Hoping for the best for all my Gulf Coast folks this week. 

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I guess the worst case situation is a left hooking Marco settling over Houston with moisture left to get the ground wet in time for Laura to come thru and dump a bunch more.  

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11 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I guess the worst case situation is a left hooking Marco settling over Houston with moisture left to get the ground wet in time for Laura to come thru and dump a bunch more.  

I hope not. I worked for FEMA post-Harvey in Houston and heavy rain is not a good thing there at all. Even a light rain isn’t good imo. 

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14 minutes ago, kodycutter said:

5am Laura Cone

Expected major, TX/LA in play   Nightime arrival.    Be prepared.

Unusual NHC discussion at 5am. Basically, this could get really big and might be further West.

 

The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments could be required later today. Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days.

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Lake Charles area here.  I do public information for local government and I booked our emergency preparedness director to do an interview with Jim Cantore this morning.  It's bad when the Weather Channel producers start calling!

Wife is heading up north today. I'll stay here at work.  We'll have generator power there and internet is likely to keep working if I need to send any news releases or social media posts.  Wednesday night/Thursday morning looks like the worst.  

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34 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Lake Charles area here.  I do public information for local government and I booked our emergency preparedness director to do an interview with Jim Cantore this morning.  It's bad when the Weather Channel producers start calling!

Wife is heading up north today. I'll stay here at work.  We'll have generator power there and internet is likely to keep working if I need to send any news releases or social media posts.  Wednesday night/Thursday morning looks like the worst.  

Stay safe!

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I got the yard cleared of all potential projectiles this evening.  Drinking a couple of beers now and then going to bed early.  It might be my last decent night's sleep for a few days. I booked our OHSEP Director on Fox, NBC and The Weather Channel today.  Lake Charles was very much a ghost town by 5pm.  I'm told the response to the mandatory evacuation wasn't as robust as they hoped. Lots of people staying here to ride it out.  

 

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3 hours ago, worrierking said:

I got the yard cleared of all potential projectiles this evening.  Drinking a couple of beers now and then going to bed early.  It might be my last decent night's sleep for a few days. I booked our OHSEP Director on Fox, NBC and The Weather Channel today.  Lake Charles was very much a ghost town by 5pm.  I'm told the response to the mandatory evacuation wasn't as robust as they hoped. Lots of people staying here to ride it out.  

 

Stay safe.  I have a high school buddy that lives in Albita Springs and a cousin that just moved to Houston, so watching this closely.

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Posted (edited)

Could really use the rain here in San Antonio... obviously would rather it not come at a catastrophic cost elsewhere.

Edited by matuski

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6 hours ago, Mjolnirs said:

Stay safe.  I have a high school buddy that lives in Albita Springs and a cousin that just moved to Houston, so watching this closely.

Your Abita Springs buddy is totally in the clear — he’s on the opposite side of the state from where Laura is going.

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This thing is moving pretty fast.  I mean it's so fast it is now going to be a hurricane when it makes landfall, in Arkansas. 

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7 hours ago, matuski said:

Could really use the rain here in San Antonio... obviously would rather it not come at a catastrophic cost elsewhere.

It isn't going to bring much rain to anyone.  It's hauling ###.  

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Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

My cat is blissfully unaware of what she is about to go through .  I left her at home.  My wife will kill me if something happens to her. It was my call to leave her there. 

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

My cat is blissfully unaware of what she is about to go through .  I left her at home.  My wife will kill me if something happens to her. It was my call to leave her there. 

 

What city are you in, and how far from the coast? 

Oh, I see above, Lake Charles. Good luck. 

Edited by SoBeDad

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19 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

My cat is blissfully unaware of what she is about to go through .  I left her at home.  My wife will kill me if something happens to her. It was my call to leave her there. 

 

GL GB. If you need to evac north, I gotchu 👊

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1 hour ago, worrierking said:

Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

My cat is blissfully unaware of what she is about to go through .  I left her at home.  My wife will kill me if something happens to her. It was my call to leave her there. 

Good luck, WK.

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1 hour ago, worrierking said:

Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

My cat is blissfully unaware of what she is about to go through .  I left her at home.  My wife will kill me if something happens to her. It was my call to leave her there. 

 

Good luck. 

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1 hour ago, worrierking said:

Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

National Hurricane Center has a projected storm surge map -- zoom in tight and get a read on what might be in store in your immediate area.

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14 hours ago, worrierking said:

I got the yard cleared of all potential projectiles this evening.  Drinking a couple of beers now and then going to bed early.  It might be my last decent night's sleep for a few days. I booked our OHSEP Director on Fox, NBC and The Weather Channel today.  Lake Charles was very much a ghost town by 5pm.  I'm told the response to the mandatory evacuation wasn't as robust as they hoped. Lots of people staying here to ride it out.  

 

8-15 foot storm surge will make for one helluva ride. :scared:

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2 hours ago, worrierking said:

Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

My cat is blissfully unaware of what she is about to go through .  I left her at home.  My wife will kill me if something happens to her. It was my call to leave her there. 

 

Good luck.

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2 hours ago, worrierking said:

My cat is blissfully unaware of what she is about to go through .  I left her at home.  My wife will kill me if something happens to her. It was my call to leave her there. 

So why did you leave the cat? Is it an outdoor, feral cat or an indoor cat? 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Doug B said:
2 hours ago, worrierking said:

Filled up the tank on my way into work.  Maybe my last chance for a while.  They will be moving us to a safe house 20 miles north of LC due to potential category four status this afternoon to ride it out over night.  Our offices are not suited for Category 4, so we can't stay here.  Plus it's at 10 feet above sea level, so surge is possible. Safe house is at 50+ feet. My house is at 15 feet.  We've never flooded, but this might be the storm that does it.

National Hurricane Center has a projected storm surge map -- zoom in tight and get a read on what might be in store in your immediate area.

Here's another coastal storm surge map the NWS/NOAA just released about an hour ago. The Cameron Parish coastline is supposed to see 15-20 ft of water, though you are situated well north of there. More germane to you, @worrierking , is where your home in relation to Calcasieu Lake.

EDIT: Do you know the flood zone in which your property is situated? Are in in an X?

Edited by Doug B

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This is a historic storm.  The late intensity surge could catch tons of people flat footed and ultimately dead.   

GTFO.  

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this is awful, thoughts with those who will be affected. layer covid risks on top just makes me sad.   

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34 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Here's another coastal storm surge map the NWS/NOAA just released about an hour ago. The Cameron Parish coastline is supposed to see 15-20 ft of water, though you are situated well north of there. More germane to you, @worrierking , is where your home in relation to Calcasieu Lake.

EDIT: Do you know the flood zone in which your property is situated? Are in in an X?

I am not in a flood zone, but I buy flood insurance anyway!

I've got friends that live on Calcasieu Lake, in Cameron Parish.  Their homes is definitely in peril.

55 minutes ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

 

So why did you leave the cat? Is it an outdoor, feral cat or an indoor cat? 

We took three cats with us when we evacuated for Rita and decided never again! They were miserable for a week, in strange surroundings.  She'll be fine, she's a true nine lives type of cat.  She'll be miserable for 6-8 hours instead of being gone for a week.  I can't bring her to work, obviously.

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3 minutes ago, worrierking said:

I am not in a flood zone, but I buy flood insurance anyway!

I've got friends that live on Calcasieu Lake, in Cameron Parish.  Their homes is definitely in peril.

We took three cats with us when we evacuated for Rita and decided never again! They were miserable for a week, in strange surroundings.  She'll be fine, she's a true nine lives type of cat.  She'll be miserable for 6-8 hours instead of being gone for a week.  I can't bring her to work, obviously.

That's the right move. We did the same.

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1 hour ago, Osaurus said:

That's the right move. We did the same.

Tell My wife!!

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Aug 2606:00 GMT25.6-90.2105 mph978 mb Hurricane2

Aug 2609:00 GMT26.1-90.7110 mph973 mb Hurricane2

Aug 2612:00 GMT26.4-91.4115 mph963 mb Hurricane3

Aug 2615:00 GMT27-92125 mph956 mb Hurricane3

Aug 2618:00 GMT27.3-92.5140 mph952 mb Hurricane4

 

This thing is gaining strength - 140mph winds now   🌬️

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25 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Tell My wife!!

My wife would never approve.  Our evacuation plan includes transporting all pets.  Granted, I attempt to never evacuate, but I don't get final say.

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Showing it could hit the coast as a CAT 5 hurricane.  This area has never had a CAT 4 or 5 hit.  It's moving fast, but there is going to be a ton of damage when everyone wakes up tomorrow morning.

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