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Mjolnirs

Official 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Iota

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On 8/27/2020 at 1:27 AM, flapgreen said:

Does Evilgrin's buddy still still hook up with Stephanie Abrams? 

Wasn't it his brother that was hitting on her? 

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1 hour ago, In The Zone said:

Wasn't it his brother that was hitting on her? 

May have been. So awesome 

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You would think that any normal person who just survived a Category 4 Hurricane in the midst of the worst global pandemic of the last 100 years would feel somewhat invincible right now (especially since trained meteorologists described the storm surge as “unsurvivable”).

Yet here I am, sitting in the dark, alone in my house sipping bourbon, convinced that my demise is imminent in some humiliating and bizarre fashion. Leading candidates for the cause of my impending doom include: bitten by rabid ground squirrel; slipped on cat vomit; and any death in which the coroner’s report included the phrases “power tool” and “in the groin region.” 
 

Perhaps I need to start drinking a lot more or I should make that call to my physician asking him to “increase my dosage,”

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23 minutes ago, worrierking said:

You would think that any normal person who just survived a Category 4 Hurricane in the midst of the worst global pandemic of the last 100 years would feel somewhat invincible right now (especially since trained meteorologists described the storm surge as “unsurvivable”).

Yet here I am, sitting in the dark, alone in my house sipping bourbon, convinced that my demise is imminent in some humiliating and bizarre fashion. Leading candidates for the cause of my impending doom include: bitten by rabid ground squirrel; slipped on cat vomit; and any death in which the coroner’s report included the phrases “power tool” and “in the groin region.” 
 

Perhaps I need to start drinking a lot more or I should make that call to my physician asking him to “increase my dosage,”

Hang in there. If you need help please call someone.

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12 hours ago, JaxBill said:

Hang in there. If you need help please call someone.

Thanks for caring, but I hoped everyone would understand the post was in jest.  I thought the small furry animal references would give it away.

Relief agencies are pouring in now.  I hope to get some ice today.  Trump is supposed to visit, but I'll probably be too busy for any of that stuff.  

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I don't live in a hurricane region, I get pissed when my lights are off for 20 minutes let alone days.

Generators not an option? Solar?

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not sure why the NHC doesn't make a yellow out of the farts in the gulf.  Seems as likely as both those low pass storms. :shrug:

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9 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Generators not an option? Solar?

Stand-alone gasoline-powered generators are expensive for most people, and tricky to use. I can say the prices have come down over the last 15 years or so and they are becoming more common ... but far from ubiquitous. I doubt more than one middle-class home in ten, locally, has a stand-alone generator even now. Keep in mind, also, that gasoline to fuel the generators can be hard to come by in the aftermath of a bad storm and it is difficult and dangerous for private residences to bank substantial quantities of gasoline for a significant length of time. Having a gasoline generator can help a lot, but it is by no means a perfect solution for a multi-week power outage.

There is also such a thing as a built-in whole-home generator, which switches on an auxiliary independent power source (I think based on natural gas or propane) if your home's grid power goes out. These are expensive to install as an add-on, but they are becoming a popular option on newly-constructed homes in the area.

Solar powered homes still lose power during severe tropical weather. I think, locally, it's because there are no (or extremely few) homes that are totally off the electrical grid and produce power completely independently via solar panels. I have solar panels on my roof, and they do lower your electric bill substantially -- but they do not replace grid power. In this area, there are too many overcast days to make going 100% solar feasible.

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So I'm basically in the middle of the big red X but I think this just means my yardwork this morning is canceled.

@NHC_Atlantic: NHC is monitoring a quartet of systems this Sunday morning.  The headliner is a low pressure area forecast to form near the U.S. East Coast with a high (70%) chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week.  The full outlook is at http://hurricanes.gov https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1300041704746090497/photo/1

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, culdeus said:

I don't live in a hurricane region, I get pissed when my lights are off for 20 minutes let alone days.

Generators not an option? Solar?

Lot's of people here have generators.  You can hear the sound of them everywhere.  It's not really an option for me.  You need gasoline or diesel and there no stations open in the Parish.  You can't get fuel.  Folks staying here are driving to Lafayette or Beaumont daily with as many gas cans as they can possibly carry to get fuel.  I am working 12-15 hours a day, so driving elsewhere isn't an option. I can stay at work where there is a generator and AC, but you know, the cat and everything.  

Edited by worrierking

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Generators are also dangerous.  We've had six deaths from Carbon Monoxide due to misused generators so far in Calcasieu.

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It does look like the rules for solar in LA are really bad for the homeowner.  I guess that's not shocking as it's red state and all that.  

You can at least do a hybrid off grid system which is not allowed in Texas, but would be what you would need for a hurricane.  Our other rules are much more favorable.  

Louisiana has a higher solar factor than DFW (71 vs 60) in terms of sun, and I'm probably putting in some panels this year without a second thought as to coverage. 

  

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Three lemons and a cherry on the map now.  Welcome to September.

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@Julia_Kingsley: The employees at West Calcasieu Cameron Hospital in Sulphur, Louisiana have just taken their first showers since Tuesday. Employees stayed through Hurricane Laura. All who stayed had their car windows blown out by 130+ mph winds. #helplakecharles #helplouisiana https://twitter.com/Julia_Kingsley/status/1299900428763705344/photo/1

 

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I'd just like to give a big F U to Laura. She wreaked havoc on central and north LA as well, which was unexpected to say the least. We were prepared for some wind and some rain but we had sustained gusts of 50-70mph for the better part of 6 hours, and we are ~3.5 hours from the Gulf coast.  I've never seen anything like what we got in my entire lifetime. Some areas here are still without power with dismal estimates (weeks!) on when they might have it restored. We just got power back last night and internet late this afternoon, after losing power early Thursday morning. It was 88 degrees in my house yesterday and we finally found a friend that had power day before yesterday so we bugged out until last night.  My work is closed for the week. Still trees down all over but most or all roadways have been cleared and power slowly getting restored. Still have a couple coworkers without power.  Heard on the radio that they had dispatched most of the "extra" line crews down south where they expected the brunt of the damage to be, which left us vulnerable up here. I managed to get by with only one broken window pane from a flying limb, a fridge/freezer and chest freezer full of ruined food and a detached garage which took a hit from a thankfully rotten tree that fell over and disintegrated on the roof and didn't cause much damage. I'm calling that a win all things considered as I know that many were not so fortunate. 

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14 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

I'd just like to give a big F U to Laura. She wreaked havoc on central and north LA as well, which was unexpected to say the least. We were prepared for some wind and some rain but we had sustained gusts of 50-70mph for the better part of 6 hours, and we are ~3.5 hours from the Gulf coast.  I've never seen anything like what we got in my entire lifetime. Some areas here are still without power with dismal estimates (weeks!) on when they might have it restored. We just got power back last night and internet late this afternoon, after losing power early Thursday morning. It was 88 degrees in my house yesterday and we finally found a friend that had power day before yesterday so we bugged out until last night.  My work is closed for the week. Still trees down all over but most or all roadways have been cleared and power slowly getting restored. Still have a couple coworkers without power.  Heard on the radio that they had dispatched most of the "extra" line crews down south where they expected the brunt of the damage to be, which left us vulnerable up here. I managed to get by with only one broken window pane from a flying limb, a fridge/freezer and chest freezer full of ruined food and a detached garage which took a hit from a thankfully rotten tree that fell over and disintegrated on the roof and didn't cause much damage. I'm calling that a win all things considered as I know that many were not so fortunate. 

That sucks.  I hope the various crews get to your area soon.
That's one of the things that people have a hard time dealing with, the order in which power companies address issues.  They generally start in the more populated areas and work out.  The further out you are, the slower the response.  Especially if, as in your situation, the extent of damage goes further inland or to a direction that wasn't expected.

Good luck.

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17 minutes ago, Mjolnirs said:

They named a storm after my sweet grandmother?

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE?!?

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Ten days post hurricane and I am rapidly running out of wardrobe options.  I fear a major fashion faux pas is imminent. Perhaps FEMA could dispatch a style consultant with the next load of bottled water and generator fuel.  The right fashionista might be able to save us all from the humiliation of being caught on the tv cameras while displaying poor taste in clothing. Perhaps we could even create the next fashion craze from our tattered remnants with the right person. We could call it "Aftermath Chic."  #KeepUpAppearancesCalcasieu.

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Paulette, not really going anywhere right now. 

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Rene

For a point of reference, those are the Cape Verde Islands.

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2 hours ago, Mjolnirs said:

Rene

For a point of reference, those are the Cape Verde Islands.

Still don't get why this is your go to website.  The post processing they do makes my eyes bleed.  

Just publish the NHC cone if you find that there is something developing.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/AL182020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

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7 hours ago, culdeus said:

Still don't get why this is your go to website.  The post processing they do makes my eyes bleed.  

:shrug:  just what my fingers type out of habit.  I'll try to remember for the next one.

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Power came back on last night.  In Rita in 2005, I was one of the last to get power on day 19 after the storm.  This time, for Laura, I am one of the first to get power back on at day 12.

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Fun times in the Atlantic:

Myfoxhurricane
NHC

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@NWSWPC: Tropical Depression Nineteen: The center is moving across the southern end of the Florida Peninsula and is expected to become a Tropical Storm over the Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight. Heavy rain is possible across southern/west-central FL toward the central Gulf Coast. https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1304714822165106694/photo/1

 

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Any thoughts on the disturbance heading toward the Caribbean?  We are in St. Lucia until Friday.

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4 hours ago, JaxBill said:

@NWSWPC: Tropical Depression Nineteen: The center is moving across the southern end of the Florida Peninsula and is expected to become a Tropical Storm over the Gulf of Mexico later today or tonight. Heavy rain is possible across southern/west-central FL toward the central Gulf Coast. https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1304714822165106694/photo/1

 

It's windy, 20-30 mph winds, and rainy, with 2-4 inches or more expected everywhere in South Florida. The danger appears to be early next week when the system strengthens to a minimal hurricane and meanders near New Orleans for 2 or 3 days, due to weak steering currents. It could be a big rain event there.

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2 hours ago, bcat01 said:

Any thoughts on the disturbance heading toward the Caribbean?  We are in St. Lucia until Friday.

Bring your kayak with you?

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Bands rolling through Tampa today. It was lighter earlier, but now we’re seeing some heavier stuff. I wish this is as bad as it gets here in the sunshine state. Looking forward to the end of a crazy season/year. 

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2 hours ago, bcat01 said:

Any thoughts on the disturbance heading toward the Caribbean?  We are in St. Lucia until Friday.

Sandals resort or other?

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3 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

The danger appears to be early next week when the system strengthens to a minimal hurricane and meanders near New Orleans for 2 or 3 days, due to weak steering currents. It could be a big rain event there.

We'll be wet, but fine. The low areas that always flood will flood, the rest will deal with water in the streets for a bit.

The initial concern with Sally is whether or not it can "miraculously"  blow up from a tropical storm to, say, a Cat 3 hurricane within 12-18 hours as storms seem to do more often in recent years. Sally's circulation area looks like it's going to be to be too much over land for it to really go crazy and intensify to that level.
 

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4 hours ago, Osaurus said:

Sandals resort or other?

Sandals Grande.  Just saw TD 20 is moving away from here.  They are forecasting some clouds and occasional rain.

Edited by bcat01
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13 hours ago, Doug B said:

We'll be wet, but fine. The low areas that always flood will flood, the rest will deal with water in the streets for a bit.

The initial concern with Sally is whether or not it can "miraculously"  blow up from a tropical storm to, say, a Cat 3 hurricane within 12-18 hours as storms seem to do more often in recent years. Sally's circulation area looks like it's going to be to be too much over land for it to really go crazy and intensify to that level.
 

Latest models are all over the place with intensification.  NHC even notes in 0500 update-

 

While northwesterly shear has been affecting Sally, the global models suggest that the shear will decrease later today as it moves under a narrow ridge. Models all respond to these changing conditions by showing intensification, but they disagree on the rate of change. It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model can't be dismissed.

 

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5 hours ago, JaxBill said:
18 hours ago, Doug B said:

We'll be wet, but fine. The low areas that always flood will flood, the rest will deal with water in the streets for a bit.

The initial concern with Sally is whether or not it can "miraculously"  blow up from a tropical storm to, say, a Cat 3 hurricane within 12-18 hours as storms seem to do more often in recent years. Sally's circulation area looks like it's going to be to be too much over land for it to really go crazy and intensify to that level.

Latest models are all over the place with intensification.  NHC even notes in 0500 update-

Yeah ... Mother Nature is slapping me in the mouth for being nonchalant and 'forgetting the lessons of Katrina'.

Still think my immediate neighborhood will make out fine as far as loss of property. We're behind post-Katrina beefed-up levee/pump protection, so storm surge shouldn't be a concern. The question now is how long the power outages will be. Get lucky and it might not go out at all. Unlucky, and it could be a week-long outage even with a relatively mild storm.

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Teddy joins the party

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2 hours ago, Mjolnirs said:

Teddy joins the party

And now a Vicki listed too when I clicked on the second link. And 2 more X's on the map. One behind Vicky and one south of Texas in the Gulf. 

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16 minutes ago, culdeus said:

No U names?

Nope ... No Q, U, X, Y, or Z.

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Hopefully things slow down and we don’t go through the entire Greek alphabet. 

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45 minutes ago, arrow1 said:

Wonder why?

A combination of they weren't needed, and there aren't many names. We have only gone through 21 names twice. 

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Yep, Vicky has formed.  Good gravy.

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28 minutes ago, culdeus said:

NHC will come out with a special advisory because Sally is getting strong so fast.  This #### is insane.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL192020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL192020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Yep. Up to Cat-2. Could be Cat-3 by landfall, which looks to be around late Tuesday PM/early Wednesday AM.

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