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Hot Sauce Guy

Several Cowboys & Texans Test Positive for COVID19

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Possible impact to the season? Is this a canary in a coal mine?

Football-related topic. Please keep this to football. If you don’t believe in COVID19 or are dismissive of its seriousness, there’s a politics forum here that’s just right for you.

i would prefer this topic stay on NFL & FF implications, which is the intent of posting it here. Thanks. 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-sports-nation/texans/article/Texans-Cowboys-players-positive-COVID-tests-15340985.php?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=sftwitter

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No implications.  The players will be over it by the time training camp begins.

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

No implications.  The players will be over it by the time training camp begins.

Link?

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Huge implications.  They will have to do massive testing of players, coaches, refs etc every game, every practice.  When someone tests positive (and they will) then that person and those who they came in contact with will have to go in quarantine.  During the season this could very quickly halt games from being played.  Hopefully this thread stays on topic.  Let's talk about the implications to the NFL season. 

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2 minutes ago, elshagon said:

Huge implications.  They will have to do massive testing of players, coaches, refs etc every game, every practice.  When someone tests positive (and they will) then that person and those who they came in contact with will have to go in quarantine.  During the season this could very quickly halt games from being played.  Hopefully this thread stays on topic.  Let's talk about the implications to the NFL season. 

Agreed, there will be implications if players test positive during the season.  This thread is about Zeke and other players testing positive now and potentially having a stroke on the field from long term affects.  The odds of this are extremely low.  The players who tested positive today are less likely to miss time this season, so it's a good thing they got it now.

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Agreed, there will be implications if players test positive during the season.  This thread is about Zeke and other players testing positive now and potentially having a stroke on the field from long term affects.  The odds of this are extremely low.  The players who tested positive today are less likely to miss time this season, so it's a good thing they got it now.

Well that didn't take long.  Players testing positive during preseason or training camp does have an impact on the season because they will have to quarantine and they will not be able to practice and any players that they came into contact with will also have to quarantine along with coaches etc.  It's not only about whether or not the player who tested positive has adverse complications, but also the danger of spreading it to other players and coaches, many who may have pre-existing conditions and be more susceptible of becoming deathly ill.

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2 minutes ago, elshagon said:

Well that didn't take long.  Players testing positive during preseason or training camp does have an impact on the season because they will have to quarantine and they will not be able to practice and any players that they came into contact with will also have to quarantine along with coaches etc.  It's not only about whether or not the player who tested positive has adverse complications, but also the danger of spreading it to other players and coaches, many who may have pre-existing conditions and be more susceptible of becoming deathly ill.

I would be surprised if team practices resume within 2 weeks, which is the average time it takes to pass and you no longer become contagious.  The players getting it today should not lose out much over the next 2 weeks (likely shorter as that is the maximum if they happened to become positive as soon as the test was done).

These guys will isolate for a week or two, be retested and cleared, and be back with their team with more immunity than other players. 

In terms of "deathly ill", very very rare for an nfl player even WITH pre existing conditions to become 'deathly ill' from this.  Ridiculously low odds. It's Zeke's grandmother we need to be worried about here.  Or the grandmother of every other healthy 24 year old who contracts Covid and isn't a big headline grabbing name like Zeke.

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14 minutes ago, elshagon said:

Huge implications.  They will have to do massive testing of players, coaches, refs etc every game, every practice.  When someone tests positive (and they will) then that person and those who they came in contact with will have to go in quarantine.  During the season this could very quickly halt games from being played.  Hopefully this thread stays on topic.  Let's talk about the implications to the NFL season. 

I’m very concerned about the impact to the season. 

the test & trace your referring to is what should be happening nationally for everyone, but it’s seeming more and more likely that if there’s gonna be a season (I am as yet not convinced of this) it will have to be 

• limited capacity / empty stadiums

• players living in a bubble while the season goes on.

the 1st is easier than the 2nd. I don’t know if players will agree to that or how the NFLPA will react if that’s a mandate. 

but definitely potential for a start/stop to the season if an outbreak occurs. 

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m very concerned about the impact to the season. 

the test & trace your referring to is what should be happening nationally for everyone, but it’s seeming more and more likely that if there’s gonna be a season (I am as yet not convinced of this) it will have to be 

• limited capacity / empty stadiums

• players living in a bubble while the season goes on.

the 1st is easier than the 2nd. I don’t know if players will agree to that or how the NFLPA will react if that’s a mandate. 

but definitely potential for a start/stop to the season if an outbreak occurs. 

There you go, now you're talking about relevant stuff and smartening up.  Proud of you for overcoming that.  This is definitely an issue if players are sick throughout the season purely in terms of how the league will react in order to stop them from spreading it to those who are elderly and at risk of dying (or to teammates/opponents who may pass it on to such people).

Lots of players are going to get this. Lots more people have this than even know.  For almost every single one it will hit them like a cold and not affect their play, but the league needs to protect an NFL outbreak at all costs to protect their money and the elderly who may get it from a player, and will definitely not let the player be with the team if they get it during the season.

 

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The coaches for the most part are elderly.  Those who are diabetic or have heart conditons have around a 10% mortality rate.  The league will be careful, but its not a stretch to imagine the season getting canceled.  The next couple months seem like forever in this day and age and things could be more clear as the season approaches.  

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I don’t think they would quarantine for 2 weeks everyone a sick player came into contact a with. They’d just test everyone who could have possibly been exposed right away. They’d probably be testing everyone around the clock anyways. Maybe there’s a period of time when a person could have the virus but not yet enough circulating in their system to trigger a positive test? I don’t know but if there is then I guess they’d quarantine people contacted for that period then test and release anyone with a negative test. Of course this assume accurate testing.

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Think going into the season with a deep team is going to be key this year. Everyone is going to lose multiple players for a couple weeks at a time. 

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3 minutes ago, elshagon said:

The coaches for the most part are elderly.  Those who are diabetic or have heart conditons have around a 10% mortality rate.  The league will be careful, but its not a stretch to imagine the season getting canceled.  The next couple months seem like forever in this day and age and things could be more clear as the season approaches.  

Average NFL coach is 51.  Your mortality rate of those around the age of 51 is 2%, and that is almost exclusively those with poor healthcare (not nfl coaches) and/or severe pre existing conditions (most don't have).

A relatively healthy 50 year old NFL coach that catches it will be quarantined under the best healthcare in the country and 99+% sure be fine. 

I don't think the season is going to get cancelled.  They just need to figure out what to do once someone gets it, and players missing games due to this is a real possibility.  Again, now is probably the best time for these guys to get it. 

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3 minutes ago, elshagon said:

The coaches for the most part are elderly.  Those who are diabetic or have heart conditons have around a 10% mortality rate.  The league will be careful, but its not a stretch to imagine the season getting canceled.  The next couple months seem like forever in this day and age and things could be more clear as the season approaches.  

I agree. 

and regardless of whether people wish to admit it or not, there have been fatalities at every age group, with every level of physical fitness. 

It is a disease that attacks the blood vessels, and is now believed to cause stroke and embolism. Patients in their 20s and 30s have stroked out with symptoms usually only seen in the very very old.

And it is totally unknown what the effects of an even mild case are going forward. There could be long-term effects.

back to what it could mean to the NFL season, symptomatic COVID19 patients have tested positive even 3 months after showing symptoms. So anyone suggesting ~2 weeks sounds a bit Pollyanna about what could really happen were a locker room to see an outbreak. 

let’s talk best case scenario of an outbreak: 10 players on one team test positive. Everything goes perfectly, not one player gets serious symptoms & it takes 2 weeks for them all to test symptoms free. (Note: I do not believe it will be this simple, but for example’s sake we’ll use that).

Thinking about the league-wide implications of that is pretty staggering. The whole team would need to be quarantined, along with anyone who came into contact.

So would teams on their schedule get extra BYEs?

How would that even work? 

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6 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Think going into the season with a deep team is going to be key this year. Everyone is going to lose multiple players for a couple weeks at a time. 
 

do you think teams will get expanded rosters?

I recall some talk of this in MLB,  but haven’t heard anything about that for NFL. 

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6 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

I don’t think they would quarantine for 2 weeks everyone a sick player came into contact a with. They’d just test everyone who could have possibly been exposed right away. They’d probably be testing everyone around the clock anyways. Maybe there’s a period of time when a person could have the virus but not yet enough circulating in their system to trigger a positive test? I don’t know but if there is then I guess they’d quarantine people contacted for that period then test and release anyone with a negative test. Of course this assume accurate testing.

No they won't quarantine everyone on the team, they'd just quarantine that player.  If they could just give every NFL player the virus now and lock them all up alone for 2 weeks I'm sure they'd just do that.  Not realistic and highly controversial, but the covid risk to nfl players is missing games from an NFL ruling, not from having debilitating symptoms. 

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9 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

I don’t think they would quarantine for 2 weeks everyone a sick player came into contact a with. They’d just test everyone who could have possibly been exposed right away. They’d probably be testing everyone around the clock anyways. Maybe there’s a period of time when a person could have the virus but not yet enough circulating in their system to trigger a positive test? I don’t know but if there is then I guess they’d quarantine people contacted for that period then test and release anyone with a negative test. Of course this assume accurate testing.

The bolded is a big concern.  The confidence level of testing isn’t awesome.

for a while it was feared that COVID+ patients continued to be contagious for 3-4 months because tests were popping positive. Now it’s believed that’s due to detecting dead virus in the system, but they’re still not certain as there have been corner cases of contagion lasting far longer than believed possible.

but i agree with you that if an isolated incident occurs, they’ll be more likely to do mass / frequent testing than to quarantine everyone.

in the event of a team-wide outbreak it would be very different. Then quarantine & all the impacts associated could come into consideration. 

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As far as FF goes, anyone thinking about expanding rosters to cover possible last minute scratches for fevers and what not?

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

No they won't quarantine everyone on the team, they'd just quarantine that player.  If they could just give every NFL player the virus now and lock them all up alone for 2 weeks I'm sure they'd just do that.  Not realistic and highly controversial, but the covid risk to nfl players is missing games from an NFL ruling, not from having debilitating symptoms. 

So now you're suggesting the league intentionally infecting players?  I'm sure they'd all be onboard for that...not.  I think you're underestimating the risk.  You state "the covid risk to nfl players is missing games...not having debilitating symptoms."  You can't possibly say there's no risk, yet here you are saying there's no risk.  There is absolutely risk and suggesting they intentionally give it to the players so you can watch football is a terrible position to take.

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I think they will have to expand rosters to cover for the inevitable quarantine that teams will have to deal with.  

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Just now, seahawk 17 said:

As far as FF goes, anyone thinking about expanding rosters to cover possible last minute scratches for fevers and what not?

I’ve brought it up with the league I commission. It’s deep IDP, so we’d go from 25 man rosters to 35-40

the problem is when you get to that point, you can only expand so much until the talent pool has evaporated. Can’t run out the 60th best LB and expect production. 

and who knows how an outbreak would impact FF teams. Could have 1 team with 8 guys out and another with 0. Just like any other injuries it’s probably random. 

maybe a good idea to diversify a bit more if you tend to take multiples from 1 team when drafting if you’re trying to avoid having multiple players from 1 team out. That all sounds kinda silly and extreme, yet here we are in a global pandemic discussing fantasy sports, so... :shrug: 

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Just now, elshagon said:

So now you're suggesting the league intentionally infecting players?  I'm sure they'd all be onboard for that...not.  I think you're underestimating the risk.  You state "the covid risk to nfl players is missing games...not having debilitating symptoms."  You can't possibly say there's no risk, yet here you are saying there's no risk.  There is absolutely risk and suggesting they intentionally give it to the players so you can watch football is a terrible position to take.

Not at all.  I totally just said it's not realistic.  Would it be safer in the long run?  Yes I believe so.  Would I actually do it if I had the chance to?  Absolutely not.  I'm saying if they COULD do that, without any pushback, if football was their only goal, then yes I think the NFL would do that.

I never said there's no risk.  I said the risk is extremely extremely small.  That's not underestimating the risk.  It is proven how low the risk to these players is contracting the virus.  The big risk (and I think this risk is being underestimated) is to the elderly and those with immune issues.  We need to protect those people at all costs, so a player getting this is a SERIOUS issue and they should Isolate immediately if they do. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

The big risk (and I think this risk is being underestimated) is to the elderly and those with immune issues.  We need to protect those people at all costs, so a player getting this is a SERIOUS issue and they should Isolate immediately if they do. 

You keep saying this & it’s simply not true. 

the misconception that it disproportionally effects the elderly comes from nursing homes that had outbreaks & vulnerable populations succumbed in high numbers, giving the impression that the elderly were the only high risk group.  I get it - it’s an easy narrative to buy into. I live 3.5 mi from the spot in Hayward CA where 56 people caught it & 11 have died. What’s often overlooked in that story is that several of those who succumbed to the illness were not elderly residents, but rather staff members. 

And now we know so much more about who’s suffering from COVID & it’s a much wider age span than previously believed.

Let me tell you about a guy in my FBB League. He’s 38, lives in NY, and when we drafted he was self-quarantined with VERY mild symptoms. That was on April 9th IIRC

its now June 15th and I chatted with him last week. He’s tested negative for months, but still gets winded going up a flight of stairs. He still has dizzy spells. He said everything is exhausting. He sometimes has to take a break while eating lunch. That’s not an exaggeration. 

oh, but he must be fat and lazy I’m sure you’ll say next. Except he’s one of the most fit 38 y/o I know. He’s a runner, doesn’t smoke, only occasionally drinks, no family history of disease, no pre-existing conditions and I’ll repeat: he had a very, very mild case. His fever never spiked past 101, he didn’t require oxygen or hospitalization. Primary symptoms lasted just under 3 weeks. 

but for certain he’s not gonna he running any marathons for a while. And he’s worried about future issues like strokes. He may not run again because of that. 

so if an NFL player gets COVID, and becomes symptomatic, don’t be shocked if that player’s season is over. 

it sounds like hyperbole. It’s not. I worked in healthcare 12+ years & have many friends in the profession. My buddy’s story is not an outlier. It’s happening more than people think, and to otherwise young and healthy people. 

Also worth noting that not every NFL player carries the same risk. Weight is reportedly a factor. 300+ lb OL are at far greater risk than say, EZE. If one of those guys gets it, it could be deadly.

As such another consideration is whether players will want to play if they don’t think it’s completely safe.  The NFL Is going about their business acting like nothing is happening,  but as we get closer to go-time I’m wondering if players are all going to buy into the plan. I believe some will sit out. Time will tell on that one. 

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37 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’ve brought it up with the league I commission. It’s deep IDP, so we’d go from 25 man rosters to 35-40

the problem is when you get to that point, you can only expand so much until the talent pool has evaporated. Can’t run out the 60th best LB and expect production. 

and who knows how an outbreak would impact FF teams. Could have 1 team with 8 guys out and another with 0. Just like any other injuries it’s probably random. 

maybe a good idea to diversify a bit more if you tend to take multiples from 1 team when drafting if you’re trying to avoid having multiple players from 1 team out. That all sounds kinda silly and extreme, yet here we are in a global pandemic discussing fantasy sports, so... :shrug: 

I think expanding the rosters is a terrible idea. I would have no issue expanding the IR spot, but simply allowing people to have that many players would be bad for the league.

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10 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

You keep saying this & it’s simply not true. 

the misconception that it disproportionally effects the elderly comes from nursing homes that had outbreaks & vulnerable populations succumbed in high numbers, giving the impression that the elderly were the only high risk group.  I get it - it’s an easy narrative to buy into. I live 3.5 mi from the spot in Hayward CA where 56 people caught it & 11 have died. What’s often overlooked in that story is that several of those who succumbed to the illness were not elderly residents, but rather staff members. 

And now we know so much more about who’s suffering from COVID & it’s a much wider age span than previously believed.

Let me tell you about a guy in my FBB League. He’s 38, lives in NY, and when we drafted he was self-quarantined with VERY mild symptoms. That was on April 9th IIRC

its now June 15th and I chatted with him last week. He’s tested negative for months, but still gets winded going up a flight of stairs. He still has dizzy spells. He said everything is exhausting. He sometimes has to take a break while eating lunch. That’s not an exaggeration. 

oh, but he must be fat and lazy I’m sure you’ll say next. Except he’s one of the most fit 38 y/o I know. He’s a runner, doesn’t smoke, only occasionally drinks, no family history of disease, no pre-existing conditions and I’ll repeat: he had a very, very mild case. His fever never spiked past 101, he didn’t require oxygen or hospitalization. Primary symptoms lasted just under 3 weeks. 

but for certain he’s not gonna he running any marathons for a while. And he’s worried about future issues like strokes. He may not run again because of that. 

so if an NFL player gets COVID, and becomes symptomatic, don’t be shocked if that player’s season is over. 

it sounds like hyperbole. It’s not. I worked in healthcare 12+ years & have many friends in the profession. My buddy’s story is not an outlier. It’s happening more than people think, and to otherwise young and healthy people. 

Also worth noting that not every NFL player carries the same risk. Weight is reportedly a factor. 300+ lb OL are at far greater risk than say, EZE. If one of those guys gets it, it could be deadly.

As such another consideration is whether players will want to play if they don’t think it’s completely safe.  The NFL Is going about their business acting like nothing is happening,  but as we get closer to go-time I’m wondering if players are all going to buy into the plan. I believe some will sit out. Time will tell on that one. 

You don't think this disease disproportionately affects the elderly?  lol.  Ok.  Well, doctors and science have proven that to be the case.  The players are not going to end their season if they become symptomatic.  No chance. 

There are exceptions to everything, and focusing on such exceptions is toxic to the actual facts out there.  For every one of your 38-yr old buddies, there's THOUSANDS of 38 year olds who got it, recovered, and are okay now. 

People are going to get this.  It is out there far more than people think.  For every '1 infected" that pops up on stat charts, there's 10 others who got it and recovered, and had very very mild symptoms, if any at all.  So if we're looking at a 0.03 percent mortality rate for the 21-30 age group, that's only the ones who showed severe enough symptoms to be tested.... most don't.

Luckily for the NFL, they ARE acting like it's a big deal.  I don't know how you say they are acting like 'nothing is happening'.  We are going to see big changes to number of fans, testing, symptom checks, etc. etc.  Sure you can say their 'motive' behind the extra steps is profit and not truly safety.... and I agree with that to a degree for sure... but regardless of their motives, this is going to be taken seriously this year.  If not for any other reason but to protect their brand.

Despite your manipulative attempts to paint me as an awful person who apparently thinks it's hilarious that your friend passed away (Which I never once did, nor would I ever do), your thoughts on reopening the economy are shining through here.  I'm not taking a side whether football should happen or not, but I am taking the side of facts that the odds of the cowboys and texans players today having long term serious health concerns due to this are EXTREMELY rare.  Not zero, and I never said zero... but so incredibly rare that I could hand pick a case here or there for almost ANYTHING being 'dangerous'. 

The risks to these players' health are as close to zero as you can come, and they will be fine.  They'll play the year and be less susceptible to getting it again and missing time.  In a backwards and messed up sort of way, from a fantasy perspective (the reason this thread exists), they will prosper from this having happened now and not later.

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2 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

I think expanding the rosters is a terrible idea. I would have no issue expanding the IR spot, but simply allowing people to have that many players would be bad for the league.

That was my input to my league as well. 

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37 minutes ago, seahawk 17 said:

As far as FF goes, anyone thinking about expanding rosters to cover possible last minute scratches for fevers and what not?

Anybody else lacking motivation to study fantasy football not knowing if there will be a season? 

It seems to me drastic measures will need to be taken to keep players safe. I've heard coaches say it's gonna be impossible to get their team practiced and ready for games based off proposed safety measures.

The good news is that we are still several months from the season. The bad news is the size of NFL rosters compared to the other sports that are starting up. It's gonna be stressful sweating out the startup of the NBA season. If they fail it could impact the NFL.

This virus is not going away. There may never be a vaccine. They are gonna have to figure out how to coexist with the virus I think.

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7 minutes ago, Deamon said:

You don't think this disease disproportionately affects the elderly? 

go back and read my post again.

there ya go. Now you know this isn’t what I said. 

it does disproportionately impact the elderly, but not to the extent initially believed. 

it is now believed that underlying conditions are why it impacts some more than others. Diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure - all are factors. 

the elderly impacted initially are concentrated at-risk populations, which is why the early impression was that it primarily impacted them.

we now know that to be untrue. 

 

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35 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

the misconception that it disproportionally effects the elderly

 

5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

go back and read my post again.

it does disproportionately impact the elderly

Oh, Ok.

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9 minutes ago, Mongidig said:

Anybody else lacking motivation to study fantasy football not knowing if there will be a season? 
 

an interesting question.  For me it’s the logistics of being a commish, hosting the annual draft that are vexing me.

its like xmas, NYE & my birthday all in one. Great food, BBQ, keg, 12 knuckleheads in a room smokin, drinking & making a day of it.

thats probably not happening regardless this year. And a Zoom draft is just really not as appealing any way ya slice it. :( 

9 minutes ago, Mongidig said:

 

It seems to me drastic measures will need to be taken to keep players safe. I've heard coaches say it's gonna be impossible to get their team practiced and ready for games based off proposed safety measures.

The good news is that we are still several months from the season. The bad news is the size of NFL rosters compared to the other sports that are starting up. It's gonna be stressful sweating out the startup of the NBA season. If they fail it could impact the NFL.

I agree - NBA & to some extent MLB will be the test cases.

it will also show us how players feel about risking their lives or their family’s lives for a game. 

some won’t care, some might. It will all matter. 

9 minutes ago, Mongidig said:

This virus is not going away. There may never be a vaccine. They are gonna have to figure out how to coexist with the virus I think.

I am optimistic that man will find a cure. We’ve cured other novel viruses. It’s typically 12-18 mo’a with testing, trials, approvals. Even expedited though that likely means “not this season”.

As such it’s hard to imagine how this is gonna go down. 

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

 

Oh, Ok.

Now read the rest where I said that was the early emphasis, but we now know there are more contributing factors.

Because that was the point of my post. 

but by all means, please do keep trolling. 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Now read the rest where I said that was the early emphasis, but we now know there are more contributing factors.

Because that was the point of my post. 

but by all means, please do keep trolling. 

saying "the misconception that it disproportionately affects the elderly" means "it's a misconception that it disproportionately affects the elderly"

And then you said "It does disproportionately affect the elderly"

Keep backpedaling though.  Twisting words has become your thing and you're just fishing here.  You straight up contradicted yourself.

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Just now, Deamon said:

saying "the misconception that it disproportionately affects the elderly" means "it's a misconception that it disproportionately affects the elderly"

And then you said "It does disproportionately affect the elderly"

Keep backpedaling though.  Twisting words has become your thing and you're just fishing here.  You straight up contradicted yourself.

Sigh.

again, this isn’t hard. Read the whole post. I stated that as a population it impacts them in greater numbers because of concentration, but that is not the ONLY factor.

 That the general public had a misconception that it ONLY impacted the elderly & that numbers were skewed - and that now we know more than we did the .

i shouldn’t have to say that 3x but you seem hell bent on making this personal and avoiding the fact that you keep saying something that’s wrong. That’s cool. You’re now on ignore. I suggest not replying to my posts, as I won’t see them. 

I made the point clearly that other factors contribute, IN ADDITION TO AGE because you keep trying to say the only people at risk are the elderly.

Which is scientifically and factually incorrect.

enjoy trolling into the void. Thanks for trying to ruin yet another topic. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Sigh.

again, this isn’t hard. Read the whole post. I stated that as a population it impacts them in greater numbers because of concentration, but that is not the ONLY factor.

 That the general public had a misconception that it ONLY impacted the elderly & that numbers were skewed - and that now we know more than we did the .

i shouldn’t have to say that 3x but you seem hell bent on making this personal and avoiding the fact that you keep saying something that’s wrong. That’s cool. You’re now on ignore. I suggest not replying to my posts, as I won’t see them. 

I made the point clearly that other factors contribute, IN ADDITION TO AGE because you keep trying to say the only people at risk are the elderly.

Which is scientifically and factually incorrect.

enjoy trolling into the void. Thanks for trying to ruin yet another topic. 

I have.  It is not a misconception that it affects the elderly disproportionately (your statement) yet you said it was one.  You didn't say "ONLY", you said disproportionately... which it does.

No one thought it only affected the elderly.  It affects young people too but in such such small numbers. 

I'm making this personal?  Says the guy who made up me laughing at a death and used that 3 times to call me classless (when I never once laughed at the death) 

Keep twisting your words though... the facts are that this does affect the elderly the most and we need to do everything to protect them.... such as making zeke sit for 2 weeks if he gets it mid season.  Him getting it now increases his odds of playing 16 games his season. 

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10 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

and regardless of whether people wish to admit it or not, there have been fatalities at every age group, with every level of physical fitness. 

Yes, there has been but it's extremely rare. As of now 40% of all fatalities were over 80, 80% over 60 and that other 20% was mostly people with multiple other pre-existing issues.  All deaths are sad and this is obviously an issue but as data comes in we can  process it and address things better and try and protect those that need it and mange the rest.

If half a team has the virus in Week 3, there will be issues - but there are work arounds and the NFL has plenty of time to deal with contingency plans.

 

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22 minutes ago, by_the_sea_wannabe said:

try this

We all knew that couldn't happen in this thread. It's too emotional for some people.

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11 hours ago, elshagon said:

So now you're suggesting the league intentionally infecting players?  I'm sure they'd all be onboard for that...not.  I think you're underestimating the risk.  You state "the covid risk to nfl players is missing games...not having debilitating symptoms."  You can't possibly say there's no risk, yet here you are saying there's no risk.  There is absolutely risk and suggesting they intentionally give it to the players so you can watch football is a terrible position to take.

This post needs a downvote.  He started with "if" for a reason.  This is a horrible strawman post and does nothing but inflame the discussion.  He didn't suggest it, he suggested if they "could" they "probably" would - you know, like how vaccines work?  I would bet money that if they knew for sure that getting it once made you immune ala chicken pox (or even just long enough to get through the season) then a whole lot of players would willingly take the chance now while they are young and healthy and in the offseason.  And yes HSG, I know there are potential long term effects.  Yes, I know it's not just a killer of the elderly.  I'm talking about what a young, ego-inflated bajillionaire NFL player would be willing to risk given the percentages vs. losing out on NFL games/season/career.

I think the impact of these early cases are going to be minimal for now.  We all knew this was coming.  Players are in their offseason stupidity mode.  EZE is one of the dumbest players out there so no surprise he's one of the coronablazers.  If anything it's a harsh reinforcement to the NFL and teams that there's going to be no letting up and they better plan now.  If I'm an NFL team I would be preparing my meeting rooms  to be virtual, with coaches and non-players in a different room.  I might even just set up a whole ton of one-man rooms like when you go visit the home office and rotate meetings that way.  The entire season is going to be one big distancing exercise.  Fewer coaches on the sidelines.  Players in a staging area that aren't playing.  Maybe a stadium can clear out space under the stands for equipment and supplies to be stored to create distancing space on the field.

On the field, coaching will rule more supreme than in past seasons.  Teams are going to have to make very fast, very significant adjustments to their games.  Think about losing a player like EZE for 5 weeks - who do we think can handle that loss better, Mike McCarthy or a guy like Tomlin?  The strongest coaching staffs are going to really stand out.

 

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Love my sports -- all of them!  The lack leaves a significant void for me.  I wish everything could be done & back to normal, but it isn't and won't be for a longer time than I want to admit.

IMO, we should start trying to wrap our heads around the concept that the virus won 2020, and we can (maybe) get back to normal in 2021.  We can deal with a lost season.

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Like I said in an alternative universe, if a single player gets it in season then other players will not want to be in the locker room or on the field. It seems it's going to happen, and in that situation I don't see this as a factor one player going out - in the event you're thinking handcuffing is the solution - but multiple. I could see this taking on a sort of strike season type vibe like in 1982 (truncated season) or 1987 (replacement players).

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yes, there has been but it's extremely rare. As of now 40% of all fatalities were over 80, 80% over 60 and that other 20% was mostly people with multiple other pre-existing issues.  All deaths are sad and this is obviously an issue but as data comes in we can  process it and address things better and try and protect those that need it and mange the rest.

of course. 

3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If half a team has the virus in Week 3, there will be issues - but there are work arounds and the NFL has plenty of time to deal with contingency plans.

 

That’s the key. We’re here discussing worst case scenarios.  

so what do you think a contingency plan would look like if say, half a team has the virus? 

would the whole team be quarantined?  Would that team lose games?

i can’t imagine any scenario where this works as business as usual For the league if there’s an outbreak. 

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3 hours ago, by_the_sea_wannabe said:

try this

I have been thanks. You too. 

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

so what do you think a contingency plan would look like if say, half a team has the virus? 

I think part of the plan is trying to avoid this from happening and I do not thing it will. However, if literally half of a team had the virus, that would be a worst case scenario and then sure postponement or even a cancellation might be an option. I think most of these athletes will be fine however.

The thing is the Bundesliga has been going forward for over three weeks now with no issues whatsoever. There is constant contact on the field in a soccer game for those that may think its a "non-contact" sport. 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

This post needs a downvote.  He started with "if" for a reason.  This is a horrible strawman post and does nothing but inflame the discussion.  He didn't suggest it, he suggested if they "could" they "probably" would - you know, like how vaccines work?  I would bet money that if they knew for sure that getting it once made you immune ala chicken pox (or even just long enough to get through the season) then a whole lot of players would willingly take the chance now while they are young and healthy and in the offseason.

I agree with this. that user has done his fair share of trolling this topic but I didn’t see that as a bad faith comment.

i do believe he’s playing fast & loose with estimations of seventy though. Claims of any player that gets it being just fine in 2 weeks when it can last months even with mild symptoms, or comments that only the elderly are severely impacted. Those simply aren’t true. 

Not to dehumanize the tragedy, but a pandemic is largely about math.

in a given population, x% are going to catch it, y% will become very ill, and z% will die. 

there are underlying factors for who that is, & how they’re effected. It initially hit concentrated populations, which gives a false sense of security to younger people that they shouldn’t be afraid of this disease. 

some of those factors may include

• obesity

• diabetes or pre-diabetic conditions 

•  Sickle cell
• hepatitis

• herpes or other forms of STD

• any prior history of blood disease - think Eric Berry having battled Leukemia. He’s not the only player who’s beaten cancer or some other blood-related issue. 

• and yes, age. 
 

and in a population that spans a range, like an NFL locker room with coaches in their 40s-70s, equipment managers, players, etc, you’re going to see a wide range of effects in the event of an outbreak.

that’s why I said there was an early illusion of the elderly being disproportionately effected. Yes, the elderly are higher risk. Obviously. They’re higher risk of everything including dying of a hairline hip-fracture related case of sepsis after the tiniest of falls (how my grandmother went) - but in a larger population, where it isn’t the high concentration of the elderly, you’ll see a more proportionate distribution. the elderly will still be more vulnerable, but not like in a care facility where there are 48 elderly patients & 6 care givers.  You can’t look at that and make any sort of sweeping generalization about a larger more diverse population. 

i thought “disproportionate” needed no explanation yet here we are.  

Quote

and yes HSG, I know there are potential long term effects.  Yes, I know it's not just a killer of the elderly.  I'm talking about what a young, ego-inflated bajillionaire NFL player would be willing to risk given the percentages vs. losing out on NFL games/season/career.

I think that’s a great point. I’m looking at it from the “what they should do” or “what the league might do”, but you’re spot on. Young players can be ego-driven, head strong. They may be comprised of a population similar to the general public, with many believing this is a hoax, some believing its a Q-Anon conspiracy that the global elite are infecting the water supply or whatever nutty thing’s going around the interwebs today. And some % will not want to play unless they believe it’s safe. 

but you’re spot on that some players will be just fine with whatever because they want to make money & play football. 

Quote

I think the impact of these early cases are going to be minimal for now.  We all knew this was coming.  Players are in their offseason stupidity mode.  EZE is one of the dumbest players out there so no surprise he's one of the coronablazers.  If anything it's a harsh reinforcement to the NFL and teams that there's going to be no letting up and they better plan now.  If I'm an NFL team I would be preparing my meeting rooms  to be virtual, with coaches and non-players in a different room.  I might even just set up a whole ton of one-man rooms like when you go visit the home office and rotate meetings that way.  The entire season is going to be one big distancing exercise.  Fewer coaches on the sidelines.  Players in a staging area that aren't playing.  Maybe a stadium can clear out space under the stands for equipment and supplies to be stored to create distancing space on the field.

On the field, coaching will rule more supreme than in past seasons.  Teams are going to have to make very fast, very significant adjustments to their games.  Think about losing a player like EZE for 5 weeks - who do we think can handle that loss better, Mike McCarthy or a guy like Tomlin?  The strongest coaching staffs are going to really stand out.

 

This will be fascinating to see. As a former PM, I can say the logistics are staggering for such a project. Teams or the league will have to hire epidemiologists, develop best practices, distancing, filter masks on the sidelines? Woof. It’s a lot. Coaching staffs are getting younger compared to past eras, but there are still some higher risk groups with regard to age & preexisting conditions. 
 

also “2 weeks” is a time-frame people need to stop using. The illness can last for months. More typically it’s 2-3 weeks for mild symptoms. Then 2 weeks is the period that one needs to test negative to leave quarantine. 

one thing you didn’t mention here - what if a HC gets it? Or an OC, DC? These aren’t easily replaceable positions. Not that replacing your QB or RB for a month would be easy, but losing a coach would not be nothing. 

i don’t know the answers. It’ll be interesting to see what they do. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think part of the plan is trying to avoid this from happening and I do not thing it will. However, if literally half of a team had the virus, that would be a worst case scenario and then sure postponement or even a cancellation might be an option. I think most of these athletes will be fine however.

I’m more worried about the 270-330 lb OL, or the older coaching staffs in general, but math says at least 1 player will die of this if a population of say, 100 otherwise healthy population an outbreak. 

it might be underlying conditions or it might just be crappy luck, but math is math. 

14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The thing is the Bundesliga has been going forward for over three weeks now with no issues whatsoever. There is constant contact on the field in a soccer game for those that may think its a "non-contact" sport. 

I’ve been paying attention to that - and I agree soccer has plenty of contact. I’m happy to see it’s working for them. I want sports to return as much as anyone. 

The US has the highest number of cases. 4% of the world’s population & 30% of the infections. That would seem to put NFL players at higher risk. 

 

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Deamon said:

never said there's no risk.  I said the risk is extremely extremely small.  That's not underestimating the risk.  It is proven how low the risk to these players is contracting the virus.

This statement is patently false. Nothing is "proven" except that COVID is highly transmissible, and that we do not yet know what causes some otherwise healthy people to die from it, or have serious long-term health consequences. And even though NFL players are young, a sizable portion have co-morbidities (asthma, diabetes, obesity, sickle-cell trait). 

We can't know what would happen if every one of the 1500+ NFL players got infected, but we can guess. Some number would die; maybe 1, maybe 5, maybe 10. A much larger number, maybe 10, maybe 20, maybe 100, would have life-long health complications like stroke or lung damage. An even greater number would have weeks or months-long recoveries with chronic fatigue. 

No one credible is comparing COVID-19 to a bad cold. It is a serious, communicable illness which no one has immunity to. The risks to a population like the NFL are not well-understood, but to the extent that we understand them, we understand that there are meaningful risks to the players themselves.

You can mitigate the risk with massive testing; like, testing every player and team person before every practice and every game. Then when you get a positive test you have to quarantine the infected person for two weeks (even if they don't have a severe case), and trace all their contacts and test and quarantine them. It's a massive effort and it's likely to result in substantial interruptions to the season if the NFL tries to go forward with it.

Think about this: The only rational guidance for trying to keep teams protected is to forbid everyone from substantial contact outside the team. That means you can't go to the club. How well do you think that will work for NFL players?

 

Edited by CalBear
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5 minutes ago, CalBear said:

This statement is patently false. Nothing is "proven" except that COVID is highly transmissible, and that we do not yet know what causes some otherwise healthy people to die from it, or have serious long-term health consequences. And even though NFL players are young, a sizable portion have co-morbidities (asthma, diabetes, obesity, sickle-cell trait). 

We can't know what would happen if every one of the 1500+ NFL players got infected, but we can guess. Some number would die; maybe 1, maybe 5, maybe 10. A much larger number, maybe 10, maybe 20, maybe 100, would have life-long health complications like stroke or lung damage. An even greater number would have weeks or months-long recoveries with chronic fatigue. 

No one credible is comparing COVID-19 to a bad cold. It is a serious, communicable illness which no one has immunity to. The risks to a population like the NFL are not well-understood, but to the extent that we understand them, we understand that there are meaningful risks to the players themselves.

You can mitigate the risk with massive testing; like, testing every player and team person before every practice and every game. Then when you get a positive test you have to quarantine the infected person for two weeks (even if they don't have a severe case), and trace all their contacts and test and quarantine them. It's a massive effort and it's likely to result in substantial interruptions to the season if the NFL tries to go forward with it.

Think about this: The only rational guidance for trying to keep teams protected is to forbid everyone from substantial contact outside the team. That means you can't go to the club. How well do you think that will work for NFL players?

 

Well for someone who just blasted me for making assumptions, you then go on to make a bunch of your own that are false.

"Some number would die" I believe is completely false.  Based on the numbers, ZERO of 1500 infected healthy people in their 20's would die.  Even if they DIDN'T have the top health care available in the country (which they do), you're looking at about 1 in 500 000.  Even if you make the extremely unlikely assumption that NFL players on average have the same health and pre existing conditions as the average person in America, AND have no better health care, it's a mortality rate of 1 in 3000 dying from it who are infected in this age group.  It would be an absolute miracle (for lack of a better word) if 1 in those 1500 NFL players infected died from it... to say "maybe 1, maybe 5, maybe 10" is ludicrous.  Suggesting maybe up to 100 would have life long strokes/lung damage and even more having month long recoveries too... this is extreme exaggeration which you could technically "defend" with the easy way out "we just don't know" blanket claim.  It's far far more likely (yes based on facts and numbers) that 0 players would die than 1. 


 

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Posted (edited)

Week 14 injury report:

Christian McCaffrey - Out (CV19)

 

I agree with several people above, unless we find a way to get a major handle on this thing over the next few months I sadly would not be that surprised if the season is canceled even though up until very recently I thought they'd very likely be playing.  The logistics just seem to be a nightmare.  If one player tests positive you have to have the entire team quarantine, right?  Then what do you do, cancel their games and the games of the team they played the week prior?  This will probably happen multiple times, how many games can they cancel and still keep some semblance of a season going where we don't have some teams that have played 16 games and other that have played 12.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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