Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Sign in to follow this  
HobbesAB

Cam Newton to Pats

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Keep fighting the good fight Anarchy.

My simplistic view on this is that you play the players who give you the best chance to win games.

Therefore Cam Newton is the day one starter for the Patriots.

Thats it.

What fight is @Anarchy99 fighting?

If I understood him right, he's saying it's mostly unknown and there's reliable support for a huge range of outcomes. 

That's fine for message boards. For a real draft, it's not so good. Fortunately, not everyone is drafting this weekend. But some are. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

I'm sorry, I've been busy on some other stuff.

How are you saying this plays out for NE QBs this year?

I have a bunch of posts in here that articulate it pretty well but, in a word, Cam.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s really not hard to understand. A healthy Cam that knows the playbook will start. Start assigning percentages to either of those and then Stidham becomes a possibility. Cam at 70% health and 40% of the playbook? Who knows?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

What fight is @Anarchy99 fighting?

If I understood him right, he's saying it's mostly unknown and there's reliable support for a huge range of outcomes. 

That's fine for message boards. For a real draft, it's not so good. Fortunately, not everyone is drafting this weekend. But some are. 

He is fighting against ignorance by telling all sides of the story. To me thats fighting the good fight. Keeping people informed. Turning over every rock, and considering all of the possibilities.

I am giving respect to Anarchy knowing a lot more about the Patriots than I would ever want to, then pivoting to a occams razor point of view to cut through the fog of war created by all of those details.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

He is fighting against ignorance by telling all sides of the story. To me thats fighting the good fight. Keeping people informed. Turning over every rock, and considering all of the possibilities.

I am giving respect to Anarchy knowing a lot more about the Patriots than I would ever want to, then pivoting to a occams razor point of view to cut through the fog of war created by all of those details.

For sure. I think considering all the possibilities is super important. 

It'll be an interesting summer as put those into the decision process and come up with a decision on where to rank the QBs. Should be fun. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

He is fighting against ignorance by telling all sides of the story. To me thats fighting the good fight. Keeping people informed. Turning over every rock, and considering all of the possibilities.

I am giving respect to Anarchy knowing a lot more about the Patriots than I would ever want to, then pivoting to a occams razor point of view to cut through the fog of war created by all of those details.

Horses, not zebras.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

It’s really not hard to understand. A healthy Cam that knows the playbook will start. Start assigning percentages to either of those and then Stidham becomes a possibility. Cam at 70% health and 40% of the playbook? Who knows?

I think you might be overvaluing this. It is not like they are taking the TB playbook and teaching it to Cam. They will redesign their system to fit Cam's skillset and focus on packages that are more important. 

Cam is also not a rookie. He's worked with some experienced coordinators like Norv and Shula. He should be able to pick up the playbook.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Cam is going to smash. 

Why do people think he is washed?  He had a foot injury and a shoulder injury and now he is back.  We always unwisely discount players returning from injury due to recency bias.

He is young enough and big enough that he should be durable.  The shoulder is the biggest concern - if he can't throw with the same arm strength. 

I see no way that the Patriots do not abuse the QB run with this elite talent.  Cam is easily "big Lamar Jackson" when healthy.   He is on a one year deal and they have nothing to lose.  They have a 3rd round pick to gain when he leaves in FA. 

Edited by kittenmittens

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Speaking of Lamar Jackson the Patriots were very interested in him before the Ravens were lucky enough to select him.

Part of their interest was because Jackson came from the same offensive system the Erhardt Perkins in Louisville that they run. They have shown interest in having a mobile QB in their system for awhile now.

Some of the language of the plays will be different for Cam Newton, I imagine Norv Turners endorsement of Newton there speaks to his confidence in Newton picking up their offense. Although Norv comes from the Coryell system so the terminology is different, but he has also been incorporating spread concepts and packaged plays similar to what the Patriots have been doing. I don't think that transition will be that hard for Cam Newton and they will tailor some plays to him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Cam is going to smash. 

Why do people think he is washed?  He had a foot injury and a shoulder injury and now he is back.  We always unwisely discount players returning from injury due to recency bias.

He is young enough and big enough that he should be durable.  The shoulder is the biggest concern - if he can't throw with the same arm strength. 

I see no way that the Patriots do not abuse the QB run with this elite talent.  Cam is easily "big Lamar Jackson" when healthy.   He is on a one year deal and they have nothing to lose.  They have a 3rd round pick to gain when he leaves in FA. 

He's had rotator cuff surgery, another shoulder surgery, and Lisfranc surgery on his foot over the past three seasons. Earlier in his career, he had surgery on ligaments in his ankle. He had two transverse process fractures in his lower back and a broken rib. He also had ligament and cartilage damage in one of his knees and at one point had a concussion.

That's his medical rap sheet. What that means, if he's healthy, if he has lingering health concerns, if he's taken too many crushing hits . . . who knows. I am not giving an opinion, just listing what shows up on his medical records chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Speaking of Lamar Jackson the Patriots were very interested in him before the Ravens were lucky enough to select him.

Part of their interest was because Jackson came from the same offensive system the Erhardt Perkins in Louisville that they run. They have shown interest in having a mobile QB in their system for awhile now.

Some of the language of the plays will be different for Cam Newton, I imagine Norv Turners endorsement of Newton there speaks to his confidence in Newton picking up their offense. Although Norv comes from the Coryell system so the terminology is different, but he has also been incorporating spread concepts and packaged plays similar to what the Patriots have been doing. I don't think that transition will be that hard for Cam Newton and they will tailor some plays to him.

Lamar was there for the taking if they really wanted him. The Patriots opted to take Sony Michel instead. The Ravens traded up with Philadelphia to take Jackson with the next pick (which will make a huge difference as BAL gets the fifth year option to his rookie contract).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Lamar was there for the taking if they really wanted him. The Patriots opted to take Sony Michel instead. The Ravens traded up with Philadelphia to take Jackson with the next pick (which will make a huge difference as BAL gets the fifth year option to his rookie contract).

Yeah they should have taken Jackson.

I imagine not ruffling Bradys feathers was a factor in their decision at the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 7/2/2020 at 1:06 PM, Wise Old Owl said:

 They will redesign their system to fit Cam's skillset and focus on packages that are more important. 

 

 

 

Edited by GordonGekko

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, GordonGekko said:

 

It's not going to be a redesign, the Patriots will have to scrap their base offense if Newton is their long term starter.

Cam Newton is NE's best running back. Let that sink in for a minute. That's a problem and not the only one. He's always been inconsistent, and his mechanics are a hot mess ( watch his hips), the team is going to have to shorten the field for him.

He'll need a modified 13 personnel as a base ( in part because that will mirror some of the protection Newton got as an early Panther and part because NE doesn't have any WRs who can get open on their own), but the Patriots have a bunch of untested rookies at TE. ( No matter who starts at QB1, the Patriots need more veteran help at TE, it's unavoidable)

The team needs to limit all the low upside situations where Newton is likely going to cough up the ball.

Newton's first priority is ball security. His lack of consistency is going to drive Belichick insane. Given this season is a wash, it could up to two full seasons since Newton last saw regular action on a football field when he does suit up.

Ron Artest was never going to figure out Phil Jacksons/Tex Winters version of the Triangle. They all knew it and spent less time trying to get to understand something he was never going to get and more time trying to hide him and focus on the few dimensions where he could help them.

Cam Newton, at the most ideal, is only going to give you some dimensions, not actual long term solutions. It's why he was available in the first place.

I don’t think a comparison to basketball makes any sense. Five players on the court. Same players play both ends of the court. Nonsense.

Other points are good though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Cam is going to smash. 

Why do people think he is washed?  He had a foot injury and a shoulder injury and now he is back.  We always unwisely discount players returning from injury due to recency bias.

He is young enough and big enough that he should be durable.  The shoulder is the biggest concern - if he can't throw with the same arm strength. 

I see no way that the Patriots do not abuse the QB run with this elite talent.  Cam is easily "big Lamar Jackson" when healthy.   He is on a one year deal and they have nothing to lose.  They have a 3rd round pick to gain when he leaves in FA. 

Was.

He hasn't been a dominant force for years now, and he has always been a bit inconsistent from week to week, outside of 2015, which was clearly an outlier. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

At this point no one really knows how healthy Cam is . . . and that includes BB and Cam himself. Injuries are injuries, and they typically take on a cumulative effect over a player's career. That article tries to minimize the injuries by pointing out that came suffered them later in the season. Gronk also had a lot of injuries late in seasons that allowed him to miss only a limited amount of games, but he still suffered the injuries. (Yes, I agree that Gronk's injuries were more severe than Cam's have been.)

I have heard all the nice numbers Cam accumulated in 2015, in 2017, and from early 2018. But he suffered two serious injuries that required two shoulder surgeries and foot surgery and two trips to I.R.. Cam also had ankle and knee injuries prior to that. To use Gronk as an example again, he had some off the charts production early in his career before injuries started taking their toll. Gronk and Cam are almost exactly the same age, and Newton has probably taken just as many hard hits as Gronk has.

To be clear, I am not saying that Cam is still hurt and not fully recovered, but I am suggesting that no one really knows what his status is. I have not seen anywhere that Cam was medically cleared to play or passed his physical with New England. Again, not saying he won't be able to get past those milestones, only that I haven't seen anywhere that he already has. Cam's current health certainly is something to monitor, as is his ability yo stay on the field.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

At this point no one really knows how healthy Cam is . . . and that includes BB and Cam himself. Injuries are injuries, and they typically take on a cumulative effect over a player's career. That article tries to minimize the injuries by pointing out that came suffered them later in the season. Gronk also had a lot of injuries late in seasons that allowed him to miss only a limited amount of games, but he still suffered the injuries. (Yes, I agree that Gronk's injuries were more severe than Cam's have been.)

I have heard all the nice numbers Cam accumulated in 2015, in 2017, and from early 2018. But he suffered two serious injuries that required two shoulder surgeries and foot surgery and two trips to I.R.. Cam also had ankle and knee injuries prior to that. To use Gronk as an example again, he had some off the charts production early in his career before injuries started taking their toll. Gronk and Cam are almost exactly the same age, and Newton has probably taken just as many hard hits as Gronk has.

To be clear, I am not saying that Cam is still hurt and not fully recovered, but I am suggesting that no one really knows what his status is. I have not seen anywhere that Cam was medically cleared to play or passed his physical with New England. Again, not saying he won't be able to get past those milestones, only that I haven't seen anywhere that he already has. Cam's current health certainly is something to monitor, as is his ability yo stay on the field.

I noticed you didn’t comment here about any possible issue with him running the offense. That is one of the myths addressed in the article. Are you past that now? So now it is just about his health?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Just Win Baby said:

I noticed you didn’t comment here about any possible issue with him running the offense. That is one of the myths addressed in the article. Are you past that now? So now it is just about his health?

I still have my doubts about what they are going to do with the offense (as do others) and if the personnel will fit with Cam at QB.. But the health issue is higher on the list.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also of note, I could write an article on the Cam situation in NE ( I would have similar writing credentials and standing as other folks providing their opinions on websites). That wouldn't make me right or them wrong, just like their articles and their perspective wouldn't make them right or me wrong. Any of us are just providing our best guesses at this point.

As far as the offense goes, I have heard former players and coaches address the subject and none of them agree what style offense NE will be running this year. Obviously they can't all be right if they all disagree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, there is no way Cam has taken close to the number of hits as Gronk. Per PFF, Gronk has been a blocker on more than 3700 snaps in his career. It is not a valid comparison.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Also, there is no way Cam has taken close to the number of hits as Gronk. Per PFF, Gronk has been a blocker on more than 3700 snaps in his career. It is not a valid comparison.

I meant as a receiver being tackled, not as a blocker. I agree that blocking takes a toll play after play, but it is still different than either being hit while possessing the football while 1) passing, 2) running, 3) going airborne to try to dive into the end zone, or 4) or getting sacked. Plenty of lineman have gone years without getting injured while in the act of blocking (a lot of injuries to lineman are from getting their legs rolled up, not from contact on the initial hit of a block).

Cam has had roughly 1,000 carries (regular and post season) and taken over 300 sacks,. There was an article from last year that said Cam had been hit 467 times over the past three seasons while the next closest QB had been hit 230 times. LINK

He played 45 games over that stretch = 10.4 hits a game. He's played in 132 games. For discussion's sake, let's say he's taken that many hits each game = 1,369 hits. That's a lot of hits (and most likely way more than any other QB in that time).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ghost Rider said:

Was.

He hasn't been a dominant force for years now, and he has always been a bit inconsistent from week to week, outside of 2015, which was clearly an outlier. 

Sure, because he was injured.  He's only 31 and he's huge enough to take a ton of hits and keep going. 

Good luck with your bets against Belichick

Edit: 31

Edited by kittenmittens

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's pretty rare for players to have much success running the ball in their 30s. That includes QBs (Cunningham, McNair, Culpepper, McNabb) and WRs (Jeffery, Harvin, DJax, Cobb) along with RBs. Obviously there are some exceptions (Fred Jackson, Michael Vick, Johnnie Morton), but guys who started struggling late in their age 29 season and then did very little in their age 30 season usually don't turn into those exceptions. Even if injuries were the source of their age 29-30 troubles - injuries often play a role in age-related decline.

Cam is a great signing for NE because of how cheap he was, but the odds are against him being the kind of runner that he was in 2013-17 or being in the top half of starting NFL QBs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't see how Cam does not succeed on the ground, unless he is no longer big and fast.

I know he is still big. If he's still fast like he was, he will run and be successful. None of the historical QBs were anything like Cam, he's a freak. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I don't see how Cam does not succeed on the ground, unless he is no longer big and fast.

I know he is still big. If he's still fast like he was, he will run and be successful. None of the historical QBs were anything like Cam, he's a freak. 

Problem #1 with the all in analytic approach.  Cannot differentiate individuals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

I don't see how Cam does not succeed on the ground, unless he is no longer big and fast.

I know he is still big. If he's still fast like he was, he will run and be successful. None of the historical QBs were anything like Cam, he's a freak. 

A running game based on size & power doesn't age as well as a running game based on speed & elusiveness, because winning with size & power involves taking on contact and contact leads to injuries. So there's much more risk of the QB getting injured, or of his team getting away from that part of his game in order to protect him from injury. This matches what we've seen over the past two years with Newton & Wilson, and I don't expect it to suddenly reverse over the next couple years.

This was also part of my take on Newton & Wilson for dynasty immediately after Cam's MVP 2015 season:

On 1/24/2016 at 2:32 PM, ZWK said:

Newton is entering his age 27 season, and Wilson is a few months older so he just had his age 27 season. There is a decent case to be made that they'll age better than the previous running QBs (based on them being better runners, or having done a better job of avoiding injuries) but the time to start looking out for the possibility of a decline is now, not several years away.

My impression is that Newton has more designed runs and takes more contact, while Wilson has more scrambles and is more likely to avoid contact. That seems like a reason to be more optimistic about Wilson's aging than about Newton's.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/2/2020 at 4:19 PM, kittenmittens said:

Cam is going to smash. 

Why do people think he is washed?  He had a foot injury and a shoulder injury and now he is back.  We always unwisely discount players returning from injury due to recency bias.

He is young enough and big enough that he should be durable.  The shoulder is the biggest concern - if he can't throw with the same arm strength. 

I see no way that the Patriots do not abuse the QB run with this elite talent.  Cam is easily "big Lamar Jackson" when healthy.   He is on a one year deal and they have nothing to lose.  They have a 3rd round pick to gain when he leaves in FA. 

He looked terrible last season. The arm strength was a huge issue. Now if he's completely healthy, this could work out really well for the Pats and for him. 

Every other team passed on him including his former team that knows him best. And the prove-it deal the Pats gave him indicates they don't really believe in him either. 

But the thing I really like about Cam is he's a max effort guy when it comes to training. So if anyone can do it, he can. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 7/2/2020 at 5:40 PM, GordonGekko said:

 

It's not going to be a redesign, the Patriots will have to scrap their base offense if Newton is their long term starter.

BS they are going to do some different things because of Cam Newtons abilities as a runner. Things that Brady could not do.

That does not mean they will scrap their offense at all. I am sure many things will be the same. Look at what Cam Newton did with Norv Turner in 2018. Norv didn't have Newton throw deep as much, as pointed out in Brett Kollmanns video. The focus shifted to short and intermediate passing. Similar to what the Patriots have been doing with Brady for awhile. No need to scrap any of that.

Quote

Cam Newton is NE's best running back. Let that sink in for a minute. That's a problem and not the only one. He's always been inconsistent, and his mechanics are a hot mess ( watch his hips), the team is going to have to shorten the field for him.

Those mechanics led to very efficient play the last time Cam Newton played extensively. Phillip Rivers always look like he has poor throwing mechanics too.

They get the job done.

Quote

He'll need a modified 13 personnel as a base ( in part because that will mirror some of the protection Newton got as an early Panther and part because NE doesn't have any WRs who can get open on their own), but the Patriots have a bunch of untested rookies at TE. ( No matter who starts at QB1, the Patriots need more veteran help at TE, it's unavoidable)

Why? They wont do this, nor do I think they need to because of Cam Newton. Yes Newton has had a lot of success throwing to TE. That does not mean they have to turtle up and bring all the defenders into the box. Seems like a poor strategy.

Quote

The team needs to limit all the low upside situations where Newton is likely going to cough up the ball.

Yeah turnovers are bad. If you stated Cam 16 games or Stidham 16 games who do you think will turn the ball over more?

I don't see how the triangle offense in basketball has any bearing on this discussion.

You make a lot of claims with absolute phrasing without any back up support for your statements.

Edited by Biabreakable
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 6/28/2020 at 10:58 PM, Ilov80s said:

Sorry if this seems disjointed, it's a copy and paste of 2 different posts I made last year. 

Steve Smith had 2 of his better seasons with Cam. Kelvin Benjamin is trash and Newton made him a fantasy WR2. Funchess isn’t much better and Cam also got a WR2 season from him. Ginn had been a bust most of his career but Cam got WR2 numbers- similar to what Brees got out of him. Olsen was a disappointment in Chicago and Cam turned turned him into a regular pro bowler. Everyone said CMc was a bad fit with Cam but Cam fed CMc to make him one of the most prolific pass catching backs ever. What about college RB Curtis Samuel? Even he had some success with Cam in 2018.

 

Newton has flaws but I don't see where his flaws have ever limited his receiving options from reaching their fantasy potential. Cam is 12th in active yards per attempt and 2nd in yards per completion. 

If we look at the WRs Cam has played with, they almost universally had their best seasons with Cam. I don't see anyone who didn't hit their fantasy ceiling with Cam. 

- Lafell: With Cam he had a 16 game average of 667/4, with Brady/Dalton it was 780/4.  Not a huge difference- especially if we consider Cam was a rookie and Lafell was a 2nd year player for one of the 3 Carolina years. Lafell had a whole season with Brady where he didn't score a single TD. 

-Louis Murphy: He spent 1 year in Carolina where he started 5 games and had 336/1. After that he averaged 310/2 over the rest of his career. I don't think Murphy was very good.

- Cotchery: Spent the final 2 seasons of his career in Carolina and at ages 32-33. He averaged 588/2 which was right in line with his previous 4 years in Pittsburgh/NY where he averaged 415/4. 

- Ed Dickson: In Baltimore he was averaging 314/2 and on Carolina opposite a Pro Bowl TE he averaged 202/1. 

- Russell Shepard: We will ignore the first 3 years of his career in Tampa when he never played. His last 2 years in Tampa he averaged 219/2. His 1 year with Cam was 202/1.

-Torrey Smith: only started 6 games with Cam at the end of his career, I don't think Smith had anything left and was clearly in a decline but his pace for the year with Cam was basically the same he had done the 2 previous seasons in Philly and SF. 

- Jarius Wright: 413/2 average in Minnesota. 447/1 in Carolina. 

When Cam has had weapons, those players hit their peak. Maybe we look back in 2 years and see Harry as being nothing more than another Branden Lafell, but I believe if Harry is as  good as his profile indicated and Cam is healthy, there is WR2 potential this year. 

First, truly excellent post.  If there was a model for how to (a) make a point, (b) have it challenged, and then (c) respectfully respond to that challenge, this is the exemplar response..  Well done and thank you.  Was interesting to go through those names and that history.

My takeaway still remains that there shouldn’t be much hope for WRs to extract big things from a year of Cam at QB, particularly if Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess are examples of what good fortunes that lie ahead.  Steve Smith was already a well established excellent receiver and pretty much continued on with a few good seasons and one very bad season with Cam, followed by a good season and a couple not-so-much in the final embers of his career. All others listed here look about on par with previous and/or post Cam seasons.  I’m ignoring TE and RB because my original post was about WR production.

Still, really good post.

Edited by cobalt_27
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/3/2020 at 1:59 PM, Anarchy99 said:

I still have my doubts about what they are going to do with the offense (as do others) and if the personnel will fit with Cam at QB.. But the health issue is higher on the list.

100%.  It's all about Cam's health.  NE is basically free rolling.  If he's not close to healthy they can dump him and it won't set the team back at all.

If he's healthy they get a top 10 NFL QB for pennies in 2020 (if the season happens).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 6/28/2020 at 7:58 PM, Ilov80s said:

Newton has flaws but I don't see where his flaws have ever limited his receiving options from reaching their fantasy potential. Cam is 12th in active yards per attempt and 2nd in yards per completion. 

If we look at the WRs Cam has played with, they almost universally had their best seasons with Cam. I don't see anyone who didn't hit their fantasy ceiling with Cam. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by GordonGekko

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, GordonGekko said:

 

IMHO, people spend far too much time talking about a QB1's weaponry ( or lack of it) instead of

1) His offensive line, particularly the quality of his center

2) His overall biomechanics

You can't get into the endzone if you are face down in the dirt all the time. You can't get into the endzone if your mechanics create perpetual inconsistencies in a game of inches.

Newton's mechanics, already questionable, took a sharp turn without Ken Dorsey. ( Watch his hips/His footwork degraded quite a bit) I'm not a huge fan of Mike Shula, but I recognize Norv Turner wasn't going to keep an incumbent QB coach on his staff.  This can't all be placed at Turner's feet either. A QB1 is going to have had thousands upon thousands of reps before he ever enters the NFL, you just can't rewire a lifetime of muscle memory. But you can reinforce discipline to shade some of your bad habits. A lot of fingers will point at a hit Newton took against the Steelers, but I see that more of a final push to an existing problem than the sole blame for all of Newton's shoulder woes. Poor mechanics puts strain on your shoulder on top of the genetic/attrition factors.

If you look at a pattern of success for aging players ( relatively, Father Time is undefeated) in any professional sport, you'll tend to find that outside of issues no one can control ( teammates, who gets drafted, FA losses or addition, who gets injured, who coaches you, etc) , the constant tends to be rock solid fundamentals.

The game is complex until it's simple. It's simple when fundamentals are the bed rock upon which you build everything else.

A younger more athletic/mobile version of Newton, with fewer hits taken, could compensate for generally poor biomechanics. Having All Pro Ryan Kalil stabilize the offense and decipher the defense for Newton from the pivot was another factor. But a lack of fundamentals will always catch up with you.

Newton is going to a team devoid of weapons, with an established core passing scheme that is easily the most complex in the current NFL, he doesn't have Kalil anymore, he doesn't have the QB coach who seemed to manage some of his more glaring mechanical problems, where he is the best RB on the roster, post major injury and could be distanced up to two full seasons since his last regular playing stint. But hey,  Jerricho Cotchery didn't do so bad with the guy several years back!  That's some bonafide Jason Wood type logic if I've ever heard any.

Cam Newton was available for a reason. Let that sink in.

 

You may be right, but at his price I can afford to be wrong. Or at least at his price last week. Not sure how far he is going to get bumped in redraft or dynasty, be it 1QB or SF. 

I'm not drafting him as my QB1, but I would like to see how ADP jumps here in these first few weeks after the signing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, GordonGekko said:

 

IMHO, people spend far too much time talking about a QB1's weaponry ( or lack of it) instead of

1) His offensive line, particularly the quality of his center

2) His overall biomechanics

You can't get into the endzone if you are face down in the dirt all the time. You can't get into the endzone if your mechanics create perpetual inconsistencies in a game of inches.

Newton's mechanics, already questionable, took a sharp turn without Ken Dorsey. ( Watch his hips/His footwork degraded quite a bit) I'm not a huge fan of Mike Shula, but I recognize Norv Turner wasn't going to keep an incumbent QB coach on his staff.  This can't all be placed at Turner's feet either. A QB1 is going to have had thousands upon thousands of reps before he ever enters the NFL, you just can't rewire a lifetime of muscle memory. But you can reinforce discipline to shade some of your bad habits. A lot of fingers will point at a hit Newton took against the Steelers, but I see that more of a final push to an existing problem than the sole blame for all of Newton's shoulder woes. Poor mechanics puts strain on your shoulder on top of the genetic/attrition factors.

If you look at a pattern of success for aging players ( relatively, Father Time is undefeated) in any professional sport, you'll tend to find that outside of issues no one can control ( teammates, who gets drafted, FA losses or addition, who gets injured, who coaches you, etc) , the constant tends to be rock solid fundamentals.

The game is complex until it's simple. It's simple when fundamentals are the bed rock upon which you build everything else.

A younger more athletic/mobile version of Newton, with fewer hits taken, could compensate for generally poor biomechanics. Having All Pro Ryan Kalil stabilize the offense and decipher the defense for Newton from the pivot was another factor. But a lack of fundamentals will always catch up with you.

Newton is going to a team devoid of weapons, with an established core passing scheme that is easily the most complex in the current NFL, he doesn't have Kalil anymore, he doesn't have the QB coach who seemed to manage some of his more glaring mechanical problems, where he is the best RB on the roster, post major injury and could be distanced up to two full seasons since his last regular playing stint. But hey,  Jerricho Cotchery didn't do so bad with the guy several years back!  That's some bonafide Jason Wood type logic if I've ever heard any.

Cam Newton was available for a reason. Let that sink in.

 

The problem with this perspective is, in a scenario where Newton balls out, you end up looking like you have no idea what you're talking about.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, GordonGekko said:

Newton's mechanics, already questionable, took a sharp turn without Ken Dorsey.

His first year without Dorsey (2018) he had his career high completion percentage, 2nd best passing rating behind his mvp season and was in line with career averages for yards/attempt. If he had a drop off without Dorsey, it didn't really show up in the stats.

10 hours ago, GordonGekko said:

Newton is going to a team devoid of weapons, with an established core passing scheme that is easily the most complex in the current NFL, he doesn't have Kalil anymore, he doesn't have the QB coach who seemed to manage some of his more glaring mechanical problems,

Doesn't this logic argue against itself? He's going to a complicated and successful system, and the coaches that created that system will be unsuccessful in getting good production from Cam? Well, if he is a QB that needs good coaching, good thing he's going to a team that has the best coach of all time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In 2018, 320 of Cam Newtons attempts, 107 went to a RB. That's an insane number. That's an offense  hiding your QBs limitations.
I think New England will adapt to C Newton and not the other way around. B Belichick doesn't try to put square pegs in round holes.

Whatever the offense will be, it won't be the "be at this spot at this time or your not getting the ball" T Brady style of play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, nightmare said:

In 2018, 320 of Cam Newtons attempts, 107 went to a RB. That's an insane number. That's an offense  hiding your QBs limitations.
I think New England will adapt to C Newton and not the other way around. B Belichick doesn't try to put square pegs in round holes.

Whatever the offense will be, it won't be the "be at this spot at this time or your not getting the ball" T Brady style of play.

It was also an offense with an All Pro RB, a hobbled aging TE, a rookie WR, a 2nd year RB converted to WR and Devin Funchess. I think the components of that offense played a factor in who was getting the ball. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, GordonGekko said:

 

IMHO, people spend far too much time talking about a QB1's weaponry ( or lack of it) instead of

1) His offensive line, particularly the quality of his center

2) His overall biomechanics

You can't get into the endzone if you are face down in the dirt all the time. You can't get into the endzone if your mechanics create perpetual inconsistencies in a game of inches.

Newton's mechanics, already questionable, took a sharp turn without Ken Dorsey. ( Watch his hips/His footwork degraded quite a bit) I'm not a huge fan of Mike Shula, but I recognize Norv Turner wasn't going to keep an incumbent QB coach on his staff.  This can't all be placed at Turner's feet either. A QB1 is going to have had thousands upon thousands of reps before he ever enters the NFL, you just can't rewire a lifetime of muscle memory. But you can reinforce discipline to shade some of your bad habits. A lot of fingers will point at a hit Newton took against the Steelers, but I see that more of a final push to an existing problem than the sole blame for all of Newton's shoulder woes. Poor mechanics puts strain on your shoulder on top of the genetic/attrition factors.

If you look at a pattern of success for aging players ( relatively, Father Time is undefeated) in any professional sport, you'll tend to find that outside of issues no one can control ( teammates, who gets drafted, FA losses or addition, who gets injured, who coaches you, etc) , the constant tends to be rock solid fundamentals.

The game is complex until it's simple. It's simple when fundamentals are the bed rock upon which you build everything else.

A younger more athletic/mobile version of Newton, with fewer hits taken, could compensate for generally poor biomechanics. Having All Pro Ryan Kalil stabilize the offense and decipher the defense for Newton from the pivot was another factor. But a lack of fundamentals will always catch up with you.

Newton is going to a team devoid of weapons, with an established core passing scheme that is easily the most complex in the current NFL, he doesn't have Kalil anymore, he doesn't have the QB coach who seemed to manage some of his more glaring mechanical problems, where he is the best RB on the roster, post major injury and could be distanced up to two full seasons since his last regular playing stint. But hey,  Jerricho Cotchery didn't do so bad with the guy several years back!  That's some bonafide Jason Wood type logic if I've ever heard any.

Cam Newton was available for a reason. Let that sink in.

 

Ok but the post was about N’Keal Harry. In seasonal leagues, he’s going in the 11th round. Even if his upside is only 1000/8 in a Kelvin Benjamin type season as @cobalt_27 believes, I think that’s a quite a reasonable cost. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

The Boston Globe's Chad Finn speculates Cam Newton will play 11 games for the Patriots this season.

"I’m leaving wiggle room for him to miss a game with injury, or for a scenario in which the Patriots have their playoff positioning clinched and Jarett Stidham gets a start," Finn writes. Newton can earn a $3.75 million bonus if he’s on the field for 90 percent or more of the snaps and the team qualifies for the playoffs, as reported by ESPN's Field Yates on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/GlobeChadFinn/status/1281577119282278402

https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/1185/cam-newton

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.