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6.30.20 Your Guess On Chances The NFL Gets In 10 Regular Season Games

"What percent chance do you think it is that NFL will get at least 10 regular season games in?"  

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Simple question and I'll likely do a few of these over the summer for different snapshots in time.

"What percent chance do you think it is that NFL will get at least 10 regular season games in?"

If you're brave, post your answer in a comment and why you think it. 

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I give it 20%

Today I read about the Denver nuggets being unable to even maintain a practice schedule because players tested positive / are quarantined.  And the players were expected to be isolating.

Dr Fauci is talking about 100K new cases a day if people don’t start wearing masks & distancing; yet in Texas today hundreds of people gathered (unmasked) to protest closing bars. 

:doh: 

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I said 60% but that was more of a hope than a true belief.  I still wonder if the athletes can get close to a "herd immunity" and if that would matter in making it easier to start/keep playing a season.

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So many teams in the states where cases are exploding. It seems reasonable to assume that large swaths of a franchise will come down with it and be unable to field a full team for a month or more. 
 

What does the league do when 20 Cowboys test positive after Labor Day weekend?

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I'll say 100% for 10+ games. If it comes to it, I could see NFL players(and coaches etc.) being separated from the the public entirely. If the cost of doing that is still beaten out by the money made from TV deals, I think it would happen.

Unless the entire country is shut down, I fully expect at least 10, and likely 16 games this year, even if all the games are played in the same state, on a handful of fields, on differing days.

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34 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Today I read about the Denver nuggets being unable to even maintain a practice schedule because players tested positive / are quarantined.  And the players were expected to be isolating.

Similar thing happened with the New Orleans Pelicans this week. Three guys are positive already, and it's hard to imagine more aren't going to follow soon. And that's after a very short time back at practice.

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We "had" the virus largely under control in Australia, but the current outbreak in Victoria (over 60 new cases today) has caused major problems for out football league schedule.

Might be instructive to think about for the NFL, they are almost sure to face similar issues as hotspots emerge even if you think the virus is under control.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-29/west-coast-richmond-afl-postponed-victoria-coronavirus-outbreak/12402204

It might mean several games are cancelled, unless they have time to reschedule.

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I say 50/50 at this point. Agreed that the troubles that the NBA are already dealing with do not paint a good picture. 
 

What could be interesting is if the indoor sports don’t play in the winter. NFL could delay their start and play into March/April and be the only game happening. 

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0% chance. Too much else going on in the country (July4/Summer/Protests/Election) and people are starting to really get out of control with the selfishness. People just don't care enough really. The NFL is the most contact of all sport and I really settled on this last Friday that we probably won't have any sports at all the rest of this year. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Terpman22 said:

0% chance. Too much else going on in the country (July4/Summer/Protests/Election) and people are starting to really get out of control with the selfishness. People just don't care enough really. The NFL is the most contact of all sport and I really settled on this last Friday that we probably won't have any sports at all the rest of this year. 

I mean...the only one relevant here is Covid

If the NFL doesn't happen it won't be because of protests, summer, July 4 and the election

Those things happen all the time

Edited by KChusker
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20%, and that's on the higher side of things. Sell your sell-high guys now; there won't be a season for them in which to blow up.  

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34 minutes ago, KChusker said:

I mean...the only one relevant here is Covid

If the NFL doesn't happen it won't be because of protests, summer, July 4 and the election

Those things happen all the time

Oh I was not clear, just how those events will/have already further spread the virus is all I was saying. 

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I said 30 percent. I think you could have multiple breakouts leading to forfeits or rescheduling... to the point the commish has to call an end to the season. Another scenario is one player goes on ventilator and winds up with permanent damage to organs affecting his nfl livelihood. This may force nfl to stop playing too. 

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I said 40. It's all arbitrary but I just don't see Americans pulling together on this. I think it is going to take everybody getting infected and having widespread vaccines before we ever return to any kind of normal. I do think they will try to play, though, but I just don't feel optimistic about 10 games.

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I sadly said 0% chance....two / three weeks ago I was on board.  But as hockey, baseball and basketball are giving it a go and cases across way too many states continue to spiral out of control I just can't see it.  Starts late, maybe they get a month to six weeks in but the virus numbers just get out of control and they cancel the season.  They will try for the owners sake but just can't see 10 on the books.

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4 hours ago, Truebluey said:

We "had" the virus largely under control in Australia, but the current outbreak in Victoria (over 60 new cases today) has caused major problems for out football league schedule.

Might be instructive to think about for the NFL, they are almost sure to face similar issues as hotspots emerge even if you think the virus is under control.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-29/west-coast-richmond-afl-postponed-victoria-coronavirus-outbreak/12402204

It might mean several games are cancelled, unless they have time to reschedule.

This is why I voted 10% and thinking about it, it should probably be 0%. Oz has done a great job and never had a big outbreak but even they cannot keep their games on schedule. Any kind of significant training camp and preseason schedule for the NFL and I doubt there is even a full league kickoff for week 1. Scared for some of these older coaches. I know Pete Carrol is in great shape but he's in his 70's I believe. Literally risking his life for the NFL.

 

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Posted (edited)

Zero, sadly.

I think I gave my thoughts on this in another thread. It will just be logistically impossible, and we don't even know what the NFL is planning in terms of isolation, testing, hubs, playing games in limited locations etc. There are a lot of factors that go into it.

As someone said earlier, the AFL in Australia is having a lot of difficulties and the virus is much more contained there. To think the NFL is going to somehow be able to play a meaningful portion of the season when new cases in the US are actually increasing rapidly is fanciful thinking IMO. I have little doubt they will attempt a season (depending on how bad things are if/when training camps start), but there will be multiple positive tests, mini outbreaks, that will require changes in scheduling and ultimately I think it's just not going to be feasible. If the US was in a better position with the virus, then I'd have much more hope.

Edited by RushHour

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1 hour ago, FreshiZ said:

This is why I voted 10% and thinking about it, it should probably be 0%. Oz has done a great job and never had a big outbreak but even they cannot keep their games on schedule. Any kind of significant training camp and preseason schedule for the NFL and I doubt there is even a full league kickoff for week 1. Scared for some of these older coaches. I know Pete Carrol is in great shape but he's in his 70's I believe. Literally risking his life for the NFL.

 

Well I gave our AFL as an example of some of the negative unexpected repercussions of outbreaks. 

But for a positive example we could look at the EPL. They restarted 2 weeks ago, no games canceled so far, and this week only one positive out of 2k tests. I believe the UK outbreak was about as bad as that in the USA. 

So that could give you some hope for a season of some length, although you have to segregate and constantly test the teams. 

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Voted 20%.  We are going in the wrong direction and I think liability concerns will eventually shut the NFL down. 

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Posted (edited)

Current Med School student in a hotspot of new cases with a rare bunch of time on my hands right now so probably not particularly qualified but I'll take a gander from what I have heard from friends/family in the medical field:

I think people are a bit too bearish right now and I get it but this is how I see it:

A few weeks ago when stuff was reopening I bet the results would have been around a 70-80% median. A few weeks before that at the initial peak of new cases more like 30-40%

It's a pandemic. It will go through ebbs and flows.

In the coming week several states will put new stay at home orders and many businesses will close like they did a couple months ago.

What will shape the rest of the year will be what happens when we reopen from that:

IF people learn their lesson even to some degree from the first time reopening led to reclosing that this virus isn't going away from daily life just because things are open again and take steps to stay at home when possible/avoid mass gatherings/wear masks/etc better than they did this time around, I say there is a good chance (80%) of a season. Some will sit out I'm sure but still

IF it goes like it did this time around where people think the virus doesn't exist because places are open again and we can resume business as usual, then I don't love the odds.

Still the NFL will try everything to keep it on track and avoid being the only league out of the picture for the year since the NHL, MLB, NBA are coming back later this summer: no fans (already not happening), virtual camps, no preseason, tons of new testing and strict temperature measurement precautions, a bubble in a place with a lot of football fields that has its cases under relative control (I would guess somewhere in Texas)--but ultimately the liability risk is big and many players/coaches will sit out.

In this scenario I say only a 25% chance of a season in some capacity and depending on how the cases surge that might be high

 

Right now I say 60% so moderately more likely than not. Maybe I am a bit more optimistic on people learning their lessons than I should be but I think at least for many it will be a reality check of how we can regress from progress if not careful

Edited by KChusker
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14 hours ago, Doug B said:

Similar thing happened with the New Orleans Pelicans this week. Three guys are positive already, and it's hard to imagine more aren't going to follow soon. And that's after a very short time back at practice.

As long as they remain quarantined to not further spread it, it's probably better they get it out of the way during camps - and no I am not suggesting anyone gets the virus on purpose, just looking at it from a practical standpoint should it happen.

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13 hours ago, Terpman22 said:

0% chance. Too much else going on in the country (July4/Summer/Protests/Election) and people are starting to really get out of control with the selfishness. People just don't care enough really. The NFL is the most contact of all sport and I really settled on this last Friday that we probably won't have any sports at all the rest of this year. 

If you like soccer, we've had sports for the last month and still going. No issues at all in the Bundesleague and the EPL - those countries had a better grip on the spread however. It's still encouraging though.

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I think kchusker makes a good point about ebbs and flows and there is still a little bit of time to course correct before the season. I’ll call it 40% right now. 

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I'm also saying zero. The main problem is that with certain regions experiencing upticks in cases through the summer, there will be a complete disruption of training camps/pre-season activities that are essential to preparing for the season. There's no way that the league would allow some teams to practice while other teams cannot due to regional shutdowns. This would be enormously disruptive to the league starting on time so you're looking at an October start at the earliest. If there's a second wave? Forget it.

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2 hours ago, Workhorse said:

I'm also saying zero. The main problem is that with certain regions experiencing upticks in cases through the summer, there will be a complete disruption of training camps/pre-season activities that are essential to preparing for the season. There's no way that the league would allow some teams to practice while other teams cannot due to regional shutdowns. This would be enormously disruptive to the league starting on time so you're looking at an October start at the earliest. If there's a second wave? Forget it.

That's just it. They can't exclude one club and let the rest play. 

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Voted 90% because I can't go 100% right now. If question was if NFL can complete full 16 game schedule I'd have been way lower, if questions was if NFL can complete 10 straight weeks of the season I'd have also lowered it quite a bit. But 10 games, with possible stop/starts, I think we see that.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, KChusker said:

I think they will set up a bubble somewhere

 

13 hours ago, RushHour said:

we don't even know what the NFL is planning in terms of isolation, testing, hubs, playing games in limited locations etc. 

NFL would have to isolate a lot more people than NBA.

From the NFL chief med officer ""We do not feel it's practical or appropriate to construct a bubble," Sills said. "Anyone who tests positive will be isolated until medically appropriate to return."

ETA- I voted 40%  just because things can change rapidly, and ten games allows a later start date, but it may involve some wishful thinking on my part.

Edited by Mystery Achiever

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My heart wants 100% but living here in Florida and seeing what's been going on I voted 40% and that was being optimistic. I'm seeing just a disregard for what we should be doing and the escalating numbers reflect that. If cases in the NFL mirror the general population or are even a little lower I can't see a full season being played,especially with the experts saying things will get worse in the fall.

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19 hours ago, houston said:

I say 50/50 at this point. Agreed that the troubles that the NBA are already dealing with do not paint a good picture. 
 

What could be interesting is if the indoor sports don’t play in the winter. NFL could delay their start and play into March/April and be the only game happening. 

But what’s going to change in 3 months except getting worse?

Basically they need to put all of the players and coaches into a bubble with no outside exposure. Only add players to the bubble after a clear test and 2 weeks in isolation. Despite the money they make, the players are too spoiled to do that so I have my doubts how smooth it’ll go. It’s also really tough to pick hub cities as you can’t play 7 games in a week on the same field.

Right now I’m expecting them to test like crazy and whoever is sick doesn’t play and they go on with as many players as they have. Some players for sure will opt to sit out, especially if a lot of players get sick, so it could have a bit of a preseason feel to some games. There’s so much money and the nfl has always put that first, so I guess they’re going to try and play no matter what unless the players association steps in and refuses to play. I’m guessing they’ll play and make it work unless travel between cities becomes impossible.

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I voted 30% and I'm probably too optimistic. Unless they extend the season into next spring and there's a vaccine in January I don't see 10 games happening by new years.  Too many people sacrificing long term success for short term summer fun.  

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I’m going to say 0% right now until they present a plan. We are about 2 months away from regular season and they don’t have anything figured out yet.

 

people are talking about there’s so much money the NFL can lose but the NBA hasn’t even resumed. It will be interesting to see how baseball does it At the end of this month and if they have success. 

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On 6/30/2020 at 6:54 PM, Terpman22 said:

0% chance. Too much else going on in the country (July4/Summer/Protests/Election) and people are starting to really get out of control with the selfishness. People just don't care enough really. The NFL is the most contact of all sport and I really settled on this last Friday that we probably won't have any sports at all the rest of this year. 

I am firmly in this camp also, as much as it sucks to say.

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I've got the solution, everyone plays in human bubble balls.  

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About 30 percent chance. I would also like to add that there is a 0 percent chance the NFL plays in a bubble. There is no way players or the union agree to a bubble for roughly 6 months, plus all the coaches trainers and everyone else involves with the teams. Plus it is a lot more difficult to play all the games in a few bubble locations and play multiple games at the same site in one day (unlike the NBA).

 

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On 6/30/2020 at 6:11 PM, travdogg said:

I'll say 100% for 10+ games. If it comes to it, I could see NFL players(and coaches etc.) being separated from the the public entirely. If the cost of doing that is still beaten out by the money made from TV deals, I think it would happen.

Unless the entire country is shut down, I fully expect at least 10, and likely 16 games this year, even if all the games are played in the same state, on a handful of fields, on differing days.

i said 90% for the same reasons travdogg lists.  (but nothing is ever certain and clicking 100% implies certainty)

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I am 100% convinced there will be zero games this year.

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On 6/30/2020 at 6:13 PM, KChusker said:

I think they will set up a bubble somewhere

IMO, this is the only way they can do it . . . and I have not heard a peep about this option as a viable solution. If they set up shop in North Dakota, Wyoming, Vermont, etc. where COVID is not really a big local issue they could probably get the season in. But that would mean no fans, no family for players, no one in or out, etc. and I don't see that going over well. It's highly unlikely everyone involved will agree to being closed off to society for 4-6 months.

Going with games in 32 cities screams trouble with all the travel required, virus flare ups, different rules in different states, exposure to people in big cities, access to nightlife and other destinations, etc. 

Definitely easier to prevent more things in isolation in a controlled environment then having players and coaches traveling all over the country.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

IMO, this is the only way they can do it . . . and I have not heard a peep about this option as a viable solution. If they set up shop in North Dakota, Wyoming, Vermont, etc. where COVID is not really a big local issue they could probably get the season in. But that would mean no fans, no family for players, no one in or out, etc. and I don't see that going over well. It's highly unlikely everyone involved will agree to being closed off to society for 4-6 months.

Going with games in 32 cities screams trouble with all the travel required, virus flare ups, different rules in different states, exposure to people in big cities, access to nightlife and other destinations, etc. 

Definitely easier to prevent more things in isolation in a controlled environment then having players and coaches traveling all over the country.

I mean, most players will have millions of reason to go along with it, if it comes to that. Perhaps there a few players who decide its not worth it, but I'd bet at least 90% would be on board. 

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Question: 

If there's no season, will the NFL draft order be the same in 2021 as it was in 2020?  Anyone know this?  What if it's only 5 games?

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6 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Question: 

If there's no season, will the NFL draft order be the same in 2021 as it was in 2020?  Anyone know this?  What if it's only 5 games?

No such plan is known and nothing has been announced. The league at this point is taking the stance that all games will be played until they are told otherwise. 

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26 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Question: 

If there's no season, will the NFL draft order be the same in 2021 as it was in 2020?  Anyone know this?  What if it's only 5 games?

Please don't make me think about that kind of stuff... ;) 

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Posted (edited)

Dynasty owners now is the time to flip 2020 picks for 2021 if you can upgrade your pick(s). Next years draft said to be loaded and my guess is the 20/21 fantasy season is a complete loss. Maybe a few games but not enough to determine a champion. You gain a year of guaranteed contract in the player and potentially an upgrade in talent. No brainer right? Aside from the fact that owning a shiny new rookie now can give a much appreciated distraction in these times.

ETA next years draft may be much harder to evaluate if there’s no college football season, so this could devalue 2021 picks substantially.

Edited by fredsavage

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11 minutes ago, fredsavage said:

Dynasty owners now is the time to flip 2020 picks for 2021 if you can upgrade your pick(s). Next years draft said to be loaded and my guess is the 20/21 fantasy season is a complete loss. Maybe a few games but not enough to determine a champion. You gain a year of guaranteed contract in the player and potentially an upgrade in talent. No brainer right? Aside from the fact that owning a shiny new rookie now can give a much appreciated distraction in these times.

ETA next years draft may be much harder to evaluate if there’s no college football season, so this could devalue 2021 picks substantially.

Yes and if they're devalued that *should* make them easier to acquire. 

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27 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yes and if they're devalued that *should* make them easier to acquire. 

They're not that devalued in my experience. I decided to try and add picks when I firmly came to believe there'd be no season. I'm honestly making COVID trades, especially those that will have service time questions w/r/t to their contracts. Some, like Mostert and Breida, I'm going to have to eat on perceived value alone (I think they'd easily pull two separate individual twos or a one together if they play next year like I think, whereas they'd probably only bring a two/three and a two/three right now), but the rest of the guys at RB That are getting older and one has to deal, I'm trying to move them. 

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

They're not that devalued in my experience. I decided to try and add picks when I firmly came to believe there'd be no season. I'm honestly making COVID trades, especially those that will have service time questions w/r/t to their contracts. Some, like Mostert and Breida, I'm going to have to eat on perceived value alone (I think they'd easily pull two separate individual twos or a one together if they play next year like I think, whereas they'd probably only bring a two/three and a two/three right now), but the rest of the guys at RB That are getting older and one has to deal, I'm trying to move them. 

What happens if you draft a few of those types... then season plays. Then you move them early for picks. Good picks. 🤣

Say you were crazy and drafted Bell, Johnson, Fournette, Ingram... and you dealt for future picks?

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9 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

No such plan is known and nothing has been announced. The league at this point is taking the stance that all games will be played until they are told otherwise. 

Fair enough.  Was more so just curious.  If it does stay the same order, Cinci would be getting a massive haul for that #1 pick and would improve a lot, much sooner than I thought they would.  Could be a few small adjustments you could make to the dynasty values of some players if you knew next years draft order already.  Very very small of course, but could be useful to know for those who are looking for tiny edges of info.

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fascinating distribution of responses.

At some point, this country will have to adopt Sweden's socioeconomic protocol (damn the torpedos; full speed ahead).  Clearly they are already trying, with varying results (hotspots).

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Posted (edited)

Voted 90% for a few reasons:

1. So much money at stake. Money for the owners and money for the players.

2. I think most players will see it as a risk worth taking, not unlike the risks they already take to play football (e.g., concussions). I expect most would be willing to sign a waiver to play.

3. The NFL has the resources and should ultimately have the motivation to make appropriate adjustments (e.g., no fans in the stands, possibly isolating players and staff from their families, etc.). 

4. It is possible that new, effective treatments emerge at some point over the next several months.

Reason #1 is by far the most important here IMO. 

Edited by Just Win Baby

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12 hours ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

fascinating distribution of responses.

At some point, this country will have to adopt Sweden's socioeconomic protocol (damn the torpedos; full speed ahead).  Clearly they are already trying, with varying results (hotspots).

The most interesting thing is the creeping cynicism about the men responsible for the enormous wealth creation required to be an NFL owner or, on the other hand, the willingness of the players to undergo medical hardship and risk to play for dollars. It's sort of a telling indictment that people believe that they'll put everyone's health in jeopardy for money purposes.

 

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