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Joe Bryant

6.30.20 Your Guess On Chances The NFL Gets In 10 Regular Season Games

"What percent chance do you think it is that NFL will get at least 10 regular season games in?"  

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Simple question and I'll likely do a few of these over the summer for different snapshots in time.

"What percent chance do you think it is that NFL will get at least 10 regular season games in?"

If you're brave, post your answer in a comment and why you think it. 

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I went with 40%

They have had the most time to prepare themselves for this out of any sport, but cases trending upwards just a month out from training camps does not bode well for a complete season. At any rate, I definitely don't think fans will be allowed in the gates.

Honestly, as this year drags on, I'm finding myself doubting sports will happen more and more. I want football and hockey back, but the news keeps heading downhill, and there's no end in sight.

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I'll go 40%.  I think with the surge in cases, the anticipated "comeback" of Covid in the fall will be accelerated (you could even argue it's not a comeback if it never went away).  I think the NFL will be driven by financial factors to put a product on the field and keep it on the field, but in the end they will either shorten or abandon the season due to too many positive cases.  Only going with 40% instead of a lower number because I believe the NFL thinks they are immune to outside pressures, and there will be many clamoring (including players) for the games to end.

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I voted 0%.

Sadly, this is just beginning and I have little faith in Americans' ability to take the steps necessary for the length of time necessary to keep this from exploding. It already is.

More young adults are contracting the virus and some are going to die.  There will likely be a pro or prominent college athlete who gets critically ill from CV in the next few months (if the seasons go forward as currently planned). Some are already opting out and when one gets really sick (or dies) it will shake the sports world and seasons will be cancelled.  

I hope I am way wrong.

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I said 60% but that was more of a hope than a true belief.  I still wonder if the athletes can get close to a "herd immunity" and if that would matter in making it easier to start/keep playing a season.

 

PS - I thought I was going nuts as I knew I already voted and answered this questions and didn't realize that was in the SP forum..haha

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12 minutes ago, The Dreaded Marco said:

I voted 0%.

Sadly, this is just beginning and I have little faith in Americans' ability to take the steps necessary for the length of time necessary to keep this from exploding. It already is.

More young adults are contracting the virus and some are going to die.  There will likely be a pro or prominent college athlete who gets critically ill from CV in the next few months (if the seasons go forward as currently planned). Some are already opting out and when one gets really sick (or dies) it will shake the sports world and seasons will be cancelled.  

I hope I am way wrong.

This is the only way the seasons (all major sports) don't happen IMO. Doesn't matter what goes on with the rest of the country.

Purely statistically it seems like this is a would be a possibility. 

I haven't followed as closely enough to know the stats on young people and the rates of those that become seriously ill.

Edited by The General

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59 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Simple question and I'll likely do a few of these over the summer for different snapshots in time.

"What percent chance do you think it is that NFL will get at least 10 regular season games in?"

If you're brave, post your answer in a comment and why you think it. 

I am obviously a contrarian on the seriousness of Covid.

Having said that - the age group that really seems to present a problem is young people.  This group very clearly doesn't respect it and is more than happy to fly in the face of simple mitigating strategies (distancing).

30%

Edited by matuski

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40%

I also think it's likely that we'll have a situation where a team that is out of the playoff hunt just decides to forfeit the rest of their season because too many players have become infected.

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I think they will do everything they can to make it happen. 

Billionaire owners want their money 

Millionaire network execs want their money

Millionaire players want their money

Players on the bubble want the chance to make their money

Fans want their football 

The president and Senate want this for political reasons 

Too many people want this. They will clear every road block they can until or unless a player or coach dies. 

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7 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I think they will do everything they can to make it happen. 

Billionaire owners want their money 

Millionaire network execs want their money

Millionaire players want their money

Players on the bubble want the chance to make their money

Fans want their football 

The president and Senate want this for political reasons 

Too many people want this. They will clear every road block they can until or unless a player or coach dies. 

Don’t even think a death is necessary. A hospitalization would shut it down imo. 

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5 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Don’t even think a death is necessary. A hospitalization would shut it down imo. 

I think we would get a very special halftime segment where star players from opposing teams wish them well. 

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100%.  A lot of what Boston Fred said, and they will likely be tested before each practice (with temp check) and results known by end of practice.

My daughter was tested at 4:30pm yesterday and had the results back at noon today (negative). 

A lot of innovation in testing is going to be achieved from all the leagues.

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Pga tour should have a lot of lessons learned to pass down.  

The issue is the sheer number of players.  

Basketball should be easier to restart and hasn't. 

50%.

 

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For what its worth, they have been playing soccer in Germany for over a month now (just finished their season), and in Spain, Italy and England (among others) for about two weeks.  Empty stadiums, testing, masks on the sidelines.  The television money was too much for them to leave on the table.  For England, they offer two broadcast options - one with fake crowd noise (which is actually very well done) and one with the silence of an empty stadium (you can hear the players shouting at each other.)  The Russian league had a hiccup a week or so ago when an entire team had to quarantine, and that club had to send their youth team because they couldn't reach a resolution with the league and opponent (the kids lost 10-1).  Otherwise, its been going pretty well as far as I can tell.

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25 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

For what its worth, they have been playing soccer in Germanyfor over a month now (just finished their season), and in Spain, Italy and England (among others) for about two weeks.  Empty stadiums, testing, masks on the sidelines.  The television money was too much for them to leave on the table.  For England, they offer two broadcast options - one with fake crowd noise (which is actually very well done) and one with the silence of an empty stadium (you can hear the players shouting at each other.)  The Russian league had a hiccup a week or so ago when an entire team had to quarantine, and that club had to send their youth team because they couldn't reach a resolution with the league and opponent (the kids lost 10-1).  Otherwise, its been going pretty well as far as I can tell.

The bolded makes a huge difference. 

American citizens have shown far less ability to adhere to the recommendations of the scientific community in controlling this virus than many other countries and that is why i think we are in major trouble unless mindsets change. 

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Didn't want to say 0 so said 10%, don't really see how this is going to be possible.  Maybe they should focus on a lingerie league where the ladies can stay 6 feet apart.

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Voted 0%, I believe this virus gets even more rampant before week 10. I don't see every team making it 10 weeks without some teams getting quarantined  

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46 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Pga tour should have a lot of lessons learned to pass down.  

The issue is the sheer number of players.  

Basketball should be easier to restart and hasn't. 

50%.

 

One lesson from PGA and Euro soccer is that people WILL get sick.

How sick is really what they should be studying. Most under 35 people with no pre existing conditions appear to be having mostly mild or asymptomatic cases. It will be interesting to see the public appetite if players start missing 2 to 3 weeks.  Of course, if one notable player is seriously ill, all bets could be off.

Football could be an issue because obesity has been seen to be one of the factors to exacerbate issues.

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I mentioned this in another thread that no longer exists. The NFL should go on a massive PR blitz and use it's top players to urge people to wear masks and social distance. Advertisers use top athletes for a reason. It works. Teams should send fans team logo masks to wear. People are clearly not going to listen to their leaders, but many will listen to their favorite athlete. The goal should be to get the numbers way down by the time the season starts. 

I don't think the season is going to start until as late as November. If players theoretically can't be working out together it will be very difficult to get things going on time. We may see 4 or 5 games played and then a forced break which could be weeks or maybe months. 

I voted 40%. 

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100%.  I think they get to at least 8, and if they have to pause the season they will.  But I think there will be a 16 game 2020-2021 NFL season either way.

[Skepticism re: the common narrative of the virus, along the lines of Matuski but way worse, withheld to avoid arguments that probably are not good for this discussion.]

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3 minutes ago, Mongidig said:

I mentioned this in another thread that no longer exists. The NFL should go on a massive PR blitz and use it's top players to urge people to wear masks and social distance. Advertisers use top athletes for a reason. It works. Teams should send fans team logo masks to wear. People are clearly not going to listen to their leaders, but many will listen to their favorite athlete. The goal should be to get the numbers way down by the time the season starts. 

I don't think the season is going to start until as late as November. If players theoretically can't be working out together it will be very difficult to get things going on time. We may see 4 or 5 games played and then a forced break which could be weeks or maybe months. 

I voted 40%. 

This is a great idea.  And really only matters for people who either A: are Infected or B: possess an N95 mask (I gave 2 of our 3 to my parents...so now my son and I wear worthless home-made-by-MIL cloth masks).  But if George Kittle told me to chew on a condom to avoid this virus I probably would do it.  I love that guy. 

Edited by facook
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22 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

One lesson from PGA and Euro soccer is that people WILL get sick.

How sick is really what they should be studying. Most under 35 people with no pre existing conditions appear to be having mostly mild or asymptomatic cases. It will be interesting to see the public appetite if players start missing 2 to 3 weeks.  Of course, if one notable player is seriously ill, all bets could be off.

Football could be an issue because obesity has been seen to be one of the factors to exacerbate issues.

And being black

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I started to vote and then realized I couldn't make myself care. My local area is going through such a horrible surge, I honestly just can't bring myself to care about sports, pro or otherwise. Almost wish that had been the final poll option.

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1 hour ago, JaxBill said:

One lesson from PGA and Euro soccer is that people WILL get sick.

How sick is really what they should be studying. Most under 35 people with no pre existing conditions appear to be having mostly mild or asymptomatic cases. It will be interesting to see the public appetite if players start missing 2 to 3 weeks.  Of course, if one notable player is seriously ill, all bets could be off.

Football could be an issue because obesity has been seen to be one of the factors to exacerbate issues.

Doesn’t the question then become whether the whole team has to isolate due to being exposed to the one positive? If the incubation period is up to 10-14 days (I’m not claiming that is the case, I don’t know), I don’t think they can just pull the one positive guy and still run the others out there just because they are negative or asymptotic.  I’m not saying what the policy should be, but just throwing out the possibility that a single positive case could take the entire team out for a week or two. 

When the NWSL started up a week or so ago, the Orlando team was already to go, then abruptly cancelled its entire season due to several positive tests among players and staff. https://www.orlandocitysc.com/post/2020/06/22/orlando-pride-statement-regarding-2020-nwsl-challenge-cup-participation
 

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2 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

I started to vote and then realized I couldn't make myself care. My local area is going through such a horrible surge, I honestly just can't bring myself to care about sports, pro or otherwise. Almost wish that had been the final poll option.

Hey bud, I say this in all respect and care, sincerely: check out hospitalizations/ICU stays/deaths.  Obviously not the be all-end all, but the mainstream story is NOT the entire story.  Your area may not be as dire as you're thinking.

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Quite a spread of responses so far.  Wild guesses at best.  I went 50% in order to ride the fence.  I think they are going to try hard, but I am not sure how they can pull it off unless they just throw caution to the wind.  If Baseball and Basketball get back on the field/court as planned, then odds go up.

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I said 50% but that’s probably way optimistic, especially with some of the latest developments. Just posted this in another thread here:

Training camp starts in less than a month. NJ and NY just enacted a mandatory 14 day quarantine for people arriving from 16 states where coronavirus infections are climbing. One of the Bills writers yesterday said something like 60 of Buffalo’s players are from those states and even more of them may be in those states now due to training. I imagine it is similar for Giants and Jets players. So legally all of those players must arrive 2 weeks early and quarantine to be allowed to participate in training camp.

Now imagine that things don’t improve in those 16 states or it spreads to different states over the next two months and the quarantine is still in place when the NFL season or preseason is supposed to start. What happens in Week 2 when the Bills and Dolphins are supposed to play and anyone coming from Florida to NY is legally required to quarantine for 2 months? Are governors really going to make an exemption for the hundreds of team related people that will be coming from those states?

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7 hours ago, facook said:

Hey bud, I say this in all respect and care, sincerely: check out hospitalizations/ICU stays/deaths.  Obviously not the be all-end all, but the mainstream story is NOT the entire story.  Your area may not be as dire as you're thinking.

I appreciate what you are saying. But we get briefed every single day by our mayor. Yesterday we crushed our daily high for positive cases by an additional 60%. They expect we will be out of hospital beds in 1 to 2 weeks if we can't slow the spread. Starting tomorrow businesses will begin to scan EVERY customer's temp before they are allowed to enter. It is EXACTLY as dire as I am thinking.

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went 50% 

I'm not hopeful of a normal season, but these folks have many millions at stake and a couple of reasonable solutions: go into team quarantines and no fans in the stands. For the kind of personal cash at stake, I'm fairly certain most would agree to do that for a few months. Our military folks do it all the time!

 

We kind of need it TBH. Things are gonna be crappy for a while still, and the NFL could go a decent ways in making that a little less crappy

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12 hours ago, CletiusMaximus said:

For what its worth, they have been playing soccer in Germany for over a month now (just finished their season), and in Spain, Italy and England (among others) for about two weeks.  Empty stadiums, testing, masks on the sidelines.  The television money was too much for them to leave on the table.  For England, they offer two broadcast options - one with fake crowd noise (which is actually very well done) and one with the silence of an empty stadium (you can hear the players shouting at each other.)  The Russian league had a hiccup a week or so ago when an entire team had to quarantine, and that club had to send their youth team because they couldn't reach a resolution with the league and opponent (the kids lost 10-1).  Otherwise, its been going pretty well as far as I can tell.

Just to add to this....

Almost every single major soccer league in the world is now running.  And in often cases lower leagues as well.

Some countries have even started allowing limited spectators.

There were 40,000 people allowed in I believe a rugby league game in Australia recently.

NFL is the largest and richest league in the world.  I put odds at 100% the league goes on.  Case rates have increased, but death rates having significantly decreased.  We have every major drug maker in the world dealing with this virus.  Close the doors to fans, test everyone involved and be diligent.  I see no reason for the season not to go on as they have still 2+ months to deal with protocols.

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I am somewhere between 0 and 10 percent.  I voted 10 percent--but that is the most optimistic projection in my opinion.  The virus grows exponentially and this country is handling it in virtually the most non chalant and dismissive way possible.  There are hot spots where the virus is exploding--but nothing is stopping people from those areas from taking the virus to areas where it's not exploding. This will end up being a vicious cycle that will eventually contaminate and infect the bubble of professional sports.   We are chasing the virus instead of getting out in front of it which is a failure of a strategy.  

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14 hours ago, The Dreaded Marco said:

I voted 0%.

Sadly, this is just beginning and I have little faith in Americans' ability to take the steps necessary for the length of time necessary to keep this from exploding. It already is.

More young adults are contracting the virus and some are going to die.  There will likely be a pro or prominent college athlete who gets critically ill from CV in the next few months (if the seasons go forward as currently planned). Some are already opting out and when one gets really sick (or dies) it will shake the sports world and seasons will be cancelled.  

I hope I am way wrong.

 

10 hours ago, DallasDMac said:

I started to vote and then realized I couldn't make myself care. My local area is going through such a horrible surge, I honestly just can't bring myself to care about sports, pro or otherwise. Almost wish that had been the final poll option.

I largely agree with both of these statements. 

We were looking forward to the first season with a local minor league baseball team, but that's not happening. And frankly, we're okay with it. 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, facook said:

Hey bud, I say this in all respect and care, sincerely: check out hospitalizations/ICU stays/deaths.  Obviously not the be all-end all, but the mainstream story is NOT the entire story.  Your area may not be as dire as you're thinking.

That's been a frustration. There's a lot of data out there. but finding accurate, trustworthy, up to date information isn't as easy as we'd like.

It's clear that overall positive results are increasing. And the hospital beds are starting to get full again. 

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10 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

I am somewhere between 0 and 10 percent.  I voted 10 percent--but that is the most optimistic projection in my opinion.  The virus grows exponentially and this country is handling it in virtually the most non chalant and dismissive way possible.  There are hot spots where the virus is exploding--but nothing is stopping people from those areas from taking the virus to areas where it's not exploding. This will end up being a vicious cycle that will eventually contaminate and infect the bubble of professional sports.   We are chasing the virus instead of getting out in front of it which is a failure of a strategy.  

Agreed. Although I'm not sure if it's just the visible minority handling things poorly or if it's really widespread.

And frankly, pro sports rightfully belong very low on the priority list. 

Sadly, freedom often includes the freedom to be idiotic and selfish.

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14 hours ago, cheese said:

Voted 90% mainly because I think they’ll play even if it’s obvious they should stop. 

Voted 80% for the exact same reason - ie - they will do everything than can, and even things they shouldn't, to try to collect those benjamin's

Edited by Angry Beavers

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0% because the country isn't able to do what it takes to control the virus.

When you see the bars crowded, no masks or social distancing, the next facility that becomes crowded is a hospital. The one after that is a morgue.

So when your kid doesn't go to school in the fall and when there is no NFL, that will be why.

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I went with 90%.  European soccer seems to be going fine, and the NFL (owners and players both) have every financial incentive to move heaven and earth to make this work.  

Edit: Also, NFL players are probably at the lowest end of the "low risk" category.  Even the team's 350+ lb nose tackle is a physical specimen when compared to the average adult.  We tend to lose sight of the fact that covid is no big deal for most people who contract it, and it's even less likely to be a big deal for this particular population.  Obviously there's a lot of variance in play here and this post could age badly in October.

Edited by IvanKaramazov
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13 hours ago, JaxBill said:

One lesson from PGA and Euro soccer is that people WILL get sick.

How sick is really what they should be studying. Most under 35 people with no pre existing conditions appear to be having mostly mild or asymptomatic cases. It will be interesting to see the public appetite if players start missing 2 to 3 weeks.  Of course, if one notable player is seriously ill, all bets could be off.

Football could be an issue because obesity has been seen to be one of the factors to exacerbate issues.

People that get sick might recover in the sense that they don't test postive 2-3 weeks later--but that's not the entire story.  In a lot of cases--it can take several weeks or up to a year until the lungs of a person that is infected with covid get back to their pre-covid levels.   If they start the season--and some players start falling ill--which is bound to happen---you will see a domino effect of other players bowing out and not be willing to play this season.   Every week that passes where more players get sick--more players will bow out.  As more and more get sick--the pressure will build on the NFL to stop the season as they already have a history of neglecting player safety. This story will grow and get magnified in the media with each passing week until the tidal wave of negative press and sick players/coaches will force a stoppage.   That's my prediction of what will happen as the season progresses--but only time will tell.  

Edited by jvdesigns2002
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100%

NFL is a TV-revenue driven league.  They will play the games in empty stadiums if they must, and TV will still provide coverage.

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I don't see how the NFL could pull this off without going into a bubble. The exception would be if they were able to delay the season to a point where the infections are way down and access to testing will not take away from the rest of society. The NFL seems to think by the time the season starts there will be enough testing available. Also, there can't be the imminent threat of a second wave. 

I change my optimism level on a daily basis. I'm downgrading from 40% to 27%. I'm seeing too many "experts" say that it is going to be impossible for there to be a season. However, I think they are basing this off the assumption that there won't be a bubble. Since it seems less likely that there will be fans, I think some sort of bubble plan is what is needed. They may need to limit the season to 10 games to reduce the time away from families if that is what is required. The NFL is different from other sports due to the mass operational size. There is no way you can trust players to do the right things and stay safe throughout the season. This is going to have to be a very controlled atmosphere. 

Keep in mind that my optimism is down during a time when we are at our worst regarding the pandemic. My perception could change drastically depending on how things trend virus wise. 

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3 hours ago, Mongidig said:

I don't see how the NFL could pull this off without going into a bubble. The exception would be if they were able to delay the season to a point where the infections are way down and access to testing will not take away from the rest of society. The NFL seems to think by the time the season starts there will be enough testing available. Also, there can't be the imminent threat of a second wave. 

I change my optimism level on a daily basis. I'm downgrading from 40% to 27%. I'm seeing too many "experts" say that it is going to be impossible for there to be a season. However, I think they are basing this off the assumption that there won't be a bubble. Since it seems less likely that there will be fans, I think some sort of bubble plan is what is needed. They may need to limit the season to 10 games to reduce the time away from families if that is what is required. The NFL is different from other sports due to the mass operational size. There is no way you can trust players to do the right things and stay safe throughout the season. This is going to have to be a very controlled atmosphere. 

Keep in mind that my optimism is down during a time when we are at our worst regarding the pandemic. My perception could change drastically depending on how things trend virus wise. 

I would put the odds at 100% that the NFL will have plenty of testing available.  Maybe it shouldn't be that way, but that's how it is.

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I went 30%--I can see teams trying to go forward with less and less players on the roster as the season goes on and players start getting sick. The real catch is going to be the coaches and GM's. In Denver, Elway is 60--Fangio is 61. Peter Carroll is 69, Belichick 68.  These guys start contracting it and there are problems. 

The whole idea of a bubble isn't going to work. Every time the NBA talks about limiting the people to 3 or whatever each player can have around them at night, makes me laugh. Tell me some player isn't going to sneak a girlfriend in. Once the virus gets in, it is all over for that team. 

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21 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I think they will do everything they can to make it happen. 

Billionaire owners want their money 

Millionaire network execs want their money

Millionaire players want their money

Players on the bubble want the chance to make their money

Fans want their football 

The president and Senate want this for political reasons 

Too many people want this. They will clear every road block they can until or unless a player or coach dies. 

Yep. Which is why I voted 100% (although in hindsight I'd prefer 90% just to leave out some other possibilities). 

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6 hours ago, prosopis said:

I said 10%

These may be the days America pays for its ignorance.

Our state isn't exactly helping the cause...

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i said 0%.  even the hint of CV has to shut this down, being a contact sport.  i think the players despise the owners over the kaepernick thing and hate goodell, though he hasn’t been arrested for domestic violence nor tested positive for roids.  CV and BLM issues and tensions, no fans, the age of officials seem to stack against playing.  that said, money is a hell of a drug.  

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