Pick-a-Player -- 2.04: Julio Jones, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes (1 Viewer)

Let's make another decision in the Pick-a-Player series. Every couple of days, we'll give you a situation and ask you to pick one of three players.

A couple of days later, the results will be published on the Footballguys website along with select comments from this thread.

So, let's get to it

It's the 2.04 pick in a standard 12-team, non-PPR draft. You picked a running back in the first round, and the players listed below are off the board. Would you select Julio Jones, Travis Kelce, or Patrick Mahomes? Or would you pass on all three and take someone else?

RB Christian McCaffrey, Car
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dal
RB Alvin Kamara, NO
RB Dalvin Cook, Min
RB Derrick Henry, Ten
WR Michael Thomas, NO
WR Davante Adams, GB
WR Tyreek Hill, KC
RB Josh Jacobs, LV
RB Joe Mixon, Cin
RB Nick Chubb, Cle
RB Aaron Jones, GB
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Ari
RB Miles Sanders, Phi

I know VBD may dictate it, but I never like the way my teams turn out when I take a QB or TE in early Round 2. Jones for me.

Definitely not Mahommes.  I might take him at the right spot in the 3rd round, but probably not.  Not taking him or Lamar in the 2nd.

It's difficult on the other 2.  I think Kelce is the right answer, but Julio is sexier.  

I think that Matt Ryan has a big year throwing the ball.  Lots of targets opened up with Hooper going away.  I think Gurley provides a demension they haven't had since Freeman was good.  (And I certainly don't think Gurley is elite at this point).  But he'll be good enough to keep the offense moving.  He'll help them finish in the red-zone.  He'll move the chains.  

People are always down Julio due to TD's.  He's had 4 seasons of at least 8 TD's in 9 years.  He's overdue for some positive TD regression.  If the Falcons offense hums, as I expect it to, he'll finish as WR1 or WR2.  I love the guy, and I'll probably have a lot of shares this year.  

Kelce had 1229 and 5 and it was a down year.  He's had 4 straight 1,000 yard seasons from the Tight-end spot.  The two years prior, he had 8 and 10 TD's. He scored 4 TD's in the playoffs.  I guess, what I'm trying to say, is that he scores touchdowns.  He's my slam dunk Tight end 1.  I know some people think Kittle surpasses him, but I don't see it with the 49ers running so much and KC passing so much.  Kelce also has the benefit of playing with the best QB in the game.  

And then I'll get to the point.  WR is insanely deep.  And there are a ton of bounce back values.  I love OBJ and JuJu to bounce back and finish as WR1's.  I love Ridley, Kupp, Sutton, etc.  WR is deep.  I appreciate the sentiment you have to spend up to get an advantage, but I honestly think the value plays are huge this year.  And a lot of these guys can break into WR1 territory.  

Kelce will give you such a silly advantage week to week at tight end.  He's consistent.  He's explosive.  Get you some Kelce.

Dr. Octopus said:

I know VBD may dictate it, but I never like the way my teams turn out when I take a QB or TE in early Round 2. Jones for me.

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And that's the beauty of Fantasy Football. You do you. :highfive:    

Julio is so disrespected somehow

Easily take him over any WR not named MT or Tyreek

Hopkins for sure has no business going ahead of him in a redraft league

KChusker said:

Julio is so disrespected somehow

Easily take him over any WR not named MT or Tyreek

Hopkins for sure has no business going ahead of him in a redraft league

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How can you take Julio over Adams?

For me, it comes down to Jones and Godwin... and in the redraft, Jones wins my vote.

msudaisy26 said:

How can you take Julio over Adams?

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That's closer but I want no part of the Packers if I can help it. Rodgers and Lafleur--don't trust either of them for fantasy purposes

Also despite being older Julio has been more durable than Adams in recent years

KChusker said:

That's closer but I want no part of the Packers if I can help it. Rodgers and Lafleur--don't trust either of them for fantasy purposes

Also despite being older Julio has been more durable than Adams in recent years

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I get the first part, but the second part is minor. I think you are using recency bias. In the last 4 years Adams has missed 7 games and Julio has missed 4. Plus one of the games Adams missed was a week 17 game so it most likely didn't do anything to your fantasy team. 

Close between Julio and Kelce for me. Top TE provides a pretty good positional advantage especially in standard so I’d lean Kelce here. PPR I probably go Julio. 

I jumped the gun with my pick before seeing the caveat post below the poll question.  What RB was taken with the 9th pick of the first round?  Looking at who was drafted I'm guessing Jacobs, Mixon, Chubb, or Sanders.  Non-PPR correct?  I can see not wanting Ekeler at 2.04 (goal-line touches/non-ppr).  Too early for Mahomes for my blood (unless 6pt TD pass or QB favored scoring method).  With Mahomes off the table, it's either Julio or Kelce, right?  I don't know that either of those would be your best option available given who has already been drafted.  I would have Kenyon Drake circled at this draft slot.  If it is a must between Julio and Kelce, I would lean towards Jones and hope Kittle falls to me coming back.  I would rather have Drake at 2.4 than the other available options.

In my 6 point passing TD league, Mahomes will go in the top 5 picks of round 1. Lamar will likely follow shortly thereafter.

So, if I am choosing between Kelce and Julio, I am going Kelce. Father time starting to creep up on Julio and while he doesn't end up missing too many games, he is constantly banged up (listed as questionable) and he does seem to be knocked to the sidelines mid-game more than I would want. 

Julio.

But real toss up for me between him and Kelce in non-PPR. Drake & Lamar in the conversation along with Mahomes.

I'm reading here that Mahomes is really a contender if the format is 6-pt passing TD leagues?  

Does that really make a big difference?

the spanker said:

I'm reading here that Mahomes is really a contender if the format is 6-pt passing TD leagues?  

Does that really make a big difference?

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A bit of a difference, but not nearly close to enough to consider him in the top 5 picks of the draft.

Keith1 said:

In my 6 point passing TD league, Mahomes will go in the top 5 picks of round 1.

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Deamon said:

A bit of a difference, but not nearly close to enough to consider him in the top 5 picks of the draft.

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Not saying I personally would take him in the top 5, but someone else in my league likely will. Look, if the guy throws 50 TDs (in a 6 point passing TD scoring system) he can carry you a long way. 

In 16 full games last year (13 regular, 3 post) Mahomes had 4856 yards, 35 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The year before that he had 5000/50.  He also got 200 plus yards and 2 touchdowns rushing. 

The arguments against taking an elite quarterback early is that it's exceptionally rare for the record setting quarterbacks to repeat an elite performance the following year, it's hard to find stud receivers and running backs later in the draft, and it's usually very possible to get a quarterback who seriously out performs his draft position later in the draft.

For the first part, mahomes is arguably a bargain at the end of the second, because of his 4800/35 floor and 5000/50 potential.  He's not particularly at risk for injury. 

The second argument - that you miss out on elite RBs and WRs - is less of a concern in July than late August/early September. 3 down backs are available in the third and fourth rounds, and possible starters available in the 5th or later.  That changes when news becomes more concrete and people who had been holding out for Mack or Jonathan Taylor now flock to one or the other, which reduces supply, which increases demand.  Which pushes the good quarterbacks and receivers down a little. While the rb bargains are available, it makes more sense to wait. In August drafts, it won't.  That puts qb and tight end back on the table. 

The third argument is that you only play one quarterback so taking an elite one early means you can't find that ADP overachiever later. Every year a later round guy goes off and their owner reaps the rewards. It's harder to do that with other positions. 

But the best way to get that overachiever is to take multiple quarterbacks in the mid rounds. If you take Brady, hoping he goes off with those weapons in Tampa, don't you have to take a backup fairly early in case he plays like he's 43?  If you take Kyler, don't you need a strong backup in case he gets hurt between his running and the scheme?  It depends on the league, of course, but in leagues with larger roster sizes, there's very little left on waivers. In short bench leagues you might still use a qbbc but you're probably using waiver claims and roster spots to get that committee. That's not something you have to worry about with mahomes. 

Compare that with kelce, who gives a big advantage over most tight ends. And the same arguments apply, except there are a couple more stud tight ends this year, kelce isn't quite as big an adp outlier during his best season as mahomes was in his, and you really don't need to do TEBC in most leagues. 

And Jones is a stud in ppr, but he may begin to decline this year as he's getting close to the end at 33, and Ridley seems to be emerging, plus gurley is in town. The days of 170 targets may be over. He's still got a high floor, and should be a ppr stud as always, but mahomes has league winning upside while Jones might not at this stage. 

Mahomes - I wouldn't tell someone who went with Jones that they are wrong, but Mahomes feels like a better move.    

Keith1 said:

Not saying I personally would take him in the top 5, but someone else in my league likely will. Look, if the guy throws 50 TDs (in a 6 point passing TD scoring system) he can carry you a long way. 

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top 5 seems insane even in that scoring.  Also the odds of him throwing 50 TD's are extremely small.

Thanks for voting and replying, everyone!

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https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-pick-a-player-jones-kelce-mahomes

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https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/786697-pick-a-player-204-mike-evans-lamar-jackson-or-george-kittle/

Deamon said:

top 5 seems insane even in that scoring.  Also the odds of him throwing 50 TD's are extremely small.

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well, he did it once before (in 2018) and he was on track to do it last year before he got hurt (10 TDs in his first 3 games last year)

Keith1 said:

well, he did it once before (in 2018) and he was on track to do it last year before he got hurt (10 TDs in his first 3 games last year)

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Ya but he won't this year. 

Deamon said:

Ya but he won't this year. 

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if I had your crystal ball, I would quit my job and gamble for a living  

You did say non-PPR right?

The bias to Julio here makes me think there are too few DFS players here.

If we can flex a TE I'll probably take Kelce here. But otherwise in a 12 team league with fairly standard settings, it's Julio easily.