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danashort

2 Keeper Question who to keep???

Question

Posted (edited)

10 team PPR league 2 keepers and you lose the rd. u drafted the player...I have the 6th pick...my first keeper is kamara in the first round but who do I go with for my 2nd keeper...

aaron jones in the 3rd

james conner in the 15th

miles sanders in the 9th or 

DJ moore in the 7th

thanks for any input and help!!!!

Edited by danashort
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will the first 5 teams hold a potential 1st rounder?  as it looks if you keep Kamara, I would include Moore or Sanders, leaning towards Sanders because I feel a better value.  

I would look at all 9 other teams to determine who they may keep, and see if it would be a first.  My projection is McCaffrey, Barkley, Thomas, Elliott might be kept.  The way I am looking at this is...  will Kamara get to me in the 6th pick?  or who might be available at that pick?  

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21 minutes ago, jwsbowler said:

will the first 5 teams hold a potential 1st rounder?  as it looks if you keep Kamara, I would include Moore or Sanders, leaning towards Sanders because I feel a better value.  

I would look at all 9 other teams to determine who they may keep, and see if it would be a first.  My projection is McCaffrey, Barkley, Thomas, Elliott might be kept.  The way I am looking at this is...  will Kamara get to me in the 6th pick?  or who might be available at that pick?  

I was going to say the same thing.  There are a few good options for keepers so if you can hold off on Kamara and still get him (or equivalent) at 1.06 you may think about freezing a different two players.

 

Sanders is probably the best value as i do have worries about Conner.  If you can start 3 RB's I might keep Jones and Sanders (if you can get Kamara back at 1.06)

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Ill have 3 guys ahead of me picking in 1st round...so kamara will never make it to me at 6....im thinking kamara and sanders?

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2 hours ago, danashort said:

Ill have 3 guys ahead of me picking in 1st round...so kamara will never make it to me at 6....im thinking kamara and sanders?

What other 1st round quality players are being kept?  There may be someone that is Kamara tier that will fall to you which is just as good.  Only have three picks ahead of you (so you get pick 4), what are the top 4 guys making into the draft?

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Posted (edited)

I was going to ask the same type of question as Gally.  do you have an idea the 1st rounders that will be kept?  and the team's draft position?  do you have a link to your league?

Edited by jwsbowler
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I'm in agreement with the others - Kamara for the 6th pick is not exactly a no-brainer when you factor in how many teams picking ahead of you will actually have a 1st round pick and take a guess at the top players available in the draft. It may be the right decision, but it is far from a no-brainer, especially since you have a number of other players representing decent value.

 

For example, let's say instead of Kamara, you keep Moore and Sanders for your 7th and 9th round picks - who are you likely to be able to get with the #6 pick - let's say it is an RB like Cook or Mixon or a WR like Hopkins or Godwin (obviously spitballing as we'd need your input on who realistically would be in the draft pool).

Then look realistically at who you would be able to draft in the 7th (if kept Kamara and Moore) or in the 9th (if you kept Kamara and Sanders)

Is the combination of player you take at #6 plus Sanders and Moore stronger or weaker than the combination of Kamara, Sanders/Moore and whomever you take in the 7th/9th round?

 

That is the exercise you need to go through and is why thus far @Gally and @jwsbowler have both suggested (and I agree with them) that there is a decent chance that Kamara for the #6 pick may not be the best value move for your team - it may be once you've gone through the scenarios.

 

All that said, if you are set on keeping Kamara, I'd likely lean towards keeping Moore for a 7th rounder then drafting BPA.

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I’d keep Sanders and DJ Moore. I’d draft best RB with first pick, then best WR with second pick. Heckuva great start to a team!

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2 hours ago, Blackbear said:

I’d keep Sanders and DJ Moore. I’d draft best RB with first pick, then best WR with second pick. Heckuva great start to a team!

What happens if Michael Thomas fell to him for his first pick and the best RB on the board is Melvin Gordon?  Do you still take a RB with first pick?  My whole point is don't lock yourself into a position.  take BPA for most of your draft.  You will lose out on value if you lock yourself into positions. 

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23 minutes ago, Gally said:

What happens if Michael Thomas fell to him for his first pick and the best RB on the board is Melvin Gordon?  Do you still take a RB with first pick?  My whole point is don't lock yourself into a position.  take BPA for most of your draft.  You will lose out on value if you lock yourself into positions. 

You think that will happen? Good lord. 

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49 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

You think that will happen? Good lord. 

My point is don't lock into positions.  The players used were to exagerrate the point.

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6 hours ago, Blackbear said:

I’d keep Sanders and DJ Moore. I’d draft best RB with first pick, then best WR with second pick. Heckuva great start to a team!

You seem to be locked into position with most of your answers in posts.  Pick the best player available regardless of position.  If I find a WR with better value, I take him.  If the RB has better value, I take him.  I don't lock into a position.  

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30 minutes ago, jwsbowler said:

You seem to be locked into position with most of your answers in posts.  Pick the best player available regardless of position.  If I find a WR with better value, I take him.  If the RB has better value, I take him.  I don't lock into a position.  

With most of my posts? Absurd

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, jwsbowler said:

You seem to be locked into position with most of your answers in posts.  Pick the best player available regardless of position.  If I find a WR with better value, I take him.  If the RB has better value, I take him.  I don't lock into a position.  

So far I have drafted in two PPR leagues. When looking at RBs vs WRs in one league the 8 of the first 9 picks between these two positions were RBs. In the other league 6 of the first 7 picks between these two positions were RBs. In both leagues the lone WR was Thomas. He was taken 4th in one league and fifth in the other. So the trend seems clear that people are loading up on RBs within the first 7 picks with Thomas being the exception. Additionally news just broke that Damien Williams is opting out. I believe this will push CEH into the top 10. Probably into the top 8. Yes, he is a rookie. But he is the lead horse for arguably the top offense in the league. Of course everyone can draft how ever they want. But I am advising taking a RB at 6 because when it raps back around in those 8 picks a lot of good RB could be off the board. However there are still exceptional WR falling to that middle of second. This is how my two ppr leagues have drafted. A lot of mocks are drafting this way too. 
 

Therefore my recommendation stands... do yourself a favor and draft a RB first and WR second and dance your way to the championship. Don’t get a receiver first and then have buyer’s remorse like jsbowler and Gally would. 😀

Edited by Blackbear
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4 hours ago, Gally said:

What happens if Michael Thomas fell to him for his first pick and the best RB on the board is Melvin Gordon?  Do you still take a RB with first pick?  My whole point is don't lock yourself into a position.  take BPA for most of your draft.  You will lose out on value if you lock yourself into positions. 

 

4 hours ago, Blackbear said:

You think that will happen? Good lord. 

Given the nature of how keepers are set up in this league, I would say that yes, there is a very decent chance that a situation such as that very well could present itself - choice between a top 5 WR or take an RB ranked in the 12-15 range, even more so if any of the teams picking ahead of him are using their 1st round picks on keepers.

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What would be great is if we could see what the likely keepers are for the other teams. This is what makes fantasy pros draft simulator handy. You can put make a copy of your league and enter teams in draft order, enter in the likely keepers, and practice drafting. I do that with my league and it works quite predictably for the first couple rounds. Then it begins to deviate a lot. I doubt Danashort will be picking a rib in the 12-15 range. 

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

So far I have drafted in two PPR leagues. When looking at RBs vs WRs in one league the 8 of the first 9 picks between these two positions were RBs. In the other league 6 of the first 7 picks between these two positions were RBs. In both leagues the lone WR was Thomas. He was taken 4th in one league and fifth in the other. So the trend seems clear that people are loading up on RBs within the first 7 picks with Thomas being the exception. Additionally news just broke that Damien Williams is opting out. I believe this will push CEH into the top 10. Probably into the top 8. Yes, he is a rookie. But he is the lead horse for arguably the top offense in the league. Of course everyone can draft how ever they want. But I am advising taking a RB at 6 because when it raps back around in those 8 picks a lot of good RB could be off the board. However there are still exceptional WR falling to that middle of second. This is how my two ppr leagues have drafted. A lot of mocks are drafting this way too. 
 

Therefore my recommendation stands... do yourself a favor and draft a RB first and WR second and dance your way to the championship. Don’t get a receiver first and then have buyer’s remorse like jsbowler and Gally would. 😀

Yup buyers remorse... 9 leagues last year, 8 playoff teams, 3 winners, 5 finals, cashed in 7.    All 12 teamers.

Edited by jwsbowler
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26 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

So far I have drafted in two PPR leagues. When looking at RBs vs WRs in one league the 8 of the first 9 picks between these two positions were RBs. In the other league 6 of the first 7 picks between these two positions were RBs. In both leagues the lone WR was Thomas. He was taken 4th in one league and fifth in the other. So the trend seems clear that people are loading up on RBs within the first 7 picks with Thomas being the exception. Additionally news just broke that Damien Williams is opting out. I believe this will push CEH into the top 10. Probably into the top 8. Yes, he is a rookie. But he is the lead horse for arguably the top offense in the league. Of course everyone can draft how ever they want. But I am advising taking a RB at 6 because when it raps back around in those 8 picks a lot of good RB could be off the board. However there are still exceptional WR falling to that middle of second. This is how my two ppr leagues have drafted. A lot of mocks are drafting this way too. 
 

Therefore my recommendation stands... do yourself a favor and draft a RB first and WR second and dance your way to the championship. Don’t get a receiver first and then have buyer’s remorse like jsbowler and Gally would. 😀

and I did not say WR first... I said BPA first, regardless of position.

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1 hour ago, jwsbowler said:

and I did not say WR first... I said BPA first, regardless of position.

I think he missed that part of the advice.  Locking onto a position is how you can lose value by someone sliding.  Flexibility is key to a draft.  

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1 hour ago, Blackbear said:

Therefore my recommendation stands... do yourself a favor and draft a RB first and WR second and dance your way to the championship. Don’t get a receiver first and then have buyer’s remorse like jsbowler and Gally would. 😀

You might want to actually read what we wrote.  Never did i say draft a wr over rb.  I said not to lock into a position and take BPA.  Drafts can shift and locking in a position before the draft starts can lead to missing out on a value that drops unexpectedly.  

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danashort, do you have your opinion / idea as to the players potentially being kept?  even if it is your opinion, this could help with your decision on Kamara.  Thanks!

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So we wont know who is keeping who till day of draft...we had a guy who last year was able to pull off not keeping his first or second picks from previous year and kept 2 other players and then was able to redraft the 2 players he would of normally kept...not that I have an issue with how it fell (kudos to him for pulling it off) but the commishioner was kinda pissed so now we dont know keepers till day of....w/ that being said my guess of keepers of guys ahead of me...

team 1 (julio 11 & j jacobs 4) 

team 2 (CMC 2 & Mahomes 4)

team 3 (zeke 1 & k. drake 10)

team 4 (henry 3 & kelce 6)

team 5 (barkley 1 & chubb 14)

my team (? & ?)

team 7 (l jackson 8 & cook 2)

team 8 (m gordan 5 & godwin 4) he could also go david johnson 2 

team 9 (montgomery 5 & thielen 1) he could also do evans 2 or c. kupp 4

team 10 (m thomas 1 & d. hopkins 3) could also do carson 4 or OBJ 1 or kyler murray  11

so I think kamara at 6 is my for sure now im kinda scared sanders may not produce as well as jones or conner...

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, danashort said:

So we wont know who is keeping who till day of draft...we had a guy who last year was able to pull off not keeping his first or second picks from previous year and kept 2 other players and then was able to redraft the 2 players he would of normally kept...not that I have an issue with how it fell (kudos to him for pulling it off) but the commishioner was kinda pissed so now we dont know keepers till day of....w/ that being said my guess of keepers of guys ahead of me...

team 1 (julio 11 & j jacobs 4) 

team 2 (CMC 2 & Mahomes 4)

team 3 (zeke 1 & k. drake 10)

team 4 (henry 3 & kelce 6)

team 5 (barkley 1 & chubb 14)

my team (? & ?)

team 7 (l jackson 8 & cook 2)

team 8 (m gordan 5 & godwin 4) he could also go david johnson 2 

team 9 (montgomery 5 & thielen 1) he could also do evans 2 or c. kupp 4

team 10 (m thomas 1 & d. hopkins 3) could also do carson 4 or OBJ 1 or kyler murray  11

so I think kamara at 6 is my for sure now im kinda scared sanders may not produce as well as jones or conner...

awesome, thanks for your projections.  CMC and Cook for a 2nd rounder... WOW.  Is this listed as the order of the draft?  

I could see Team 9 going with Evans for a 2 over Thielen / 1.  Better value.  
Team 1, is that Julio for an 11th?  
Team 10 is a pretty good option of Thomas and Hopkins.  I don't trust OBJ or Carson.  
Team 8, I would project the same two.  D. Johnson not worth a 2nd.
So, I would lean that there will be 6 spots drafted in round one, including potentially yours.    

As to your concern, I understand.  I do have Sanders at 9th a true great value, that is why Moore would not be a bad pick for a 7th,  I have Moore valued higher than Jones (I am a Packer fan).

Edited by jwsbowler
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So based on this my thoughts are Kamara is gone.
 

But you will have CEH, Ekeler, AJones Tyreek Hill.

 

I advise taking CEH. I think he will be a monster. 

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50 minutes ago, jwsbowler said:

awesome, thanks for your projections.  CMC and Cook for a 2nd rounder... WOW.  Is this listed as the order of the draft?  

I could see Team 9 going with Evans for a 2 over Thielen / 1.  Better value.  
Team 1, is that Julio for an 11th?  
Team 10 is a pretty good option of Thomas and Hopkins.  I don't trust OBJ or Carson.  
Team 8, I would project the same two.  D. Johnson not worth a 2nd.
So, I would lean that there will be 6 spots drafted in round one, including potentially yours.    

As to your concern, I understand.  I do have Sanders at 9th a true great value, that is why Moore would not be a bad pick for a 7th,  I have Moore valued higher than Jones (I am a Packer fan).

danashort... who has Davante Adams?  Tyreek Hill?

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Those are the order in picks...mind you some of those keepers have obviously been kept for years...lol...and I dont think I can take a chance on not keeping kamara and gatting CEH, im sure both will be gone

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Posted (edited)

d adams belongs to team 1 for a 1st and hill is team 7 for a 1st..

what if I keep sanders and conner???

Edited by danashort
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, danashort said:

Those are the order in picks...mind you some of those keepers have obviously been kept for years...lol...and I dont think I can take a chance on not keeping kamara and gatting CEH, im sure both will be gone

Ah... makes sense.   Based on your projections I see 7 of the top 10 not being available.  And if I am sensing things correctly, the other 3 (including Kamara) will not make it to you at your spot and I have Kamara 5th.  So, go with your gut and if you choose to keep Kamara, it's a good choice.  

Also, I see 5 other keepers valued as 2nd rounders.  So, with 13 picks available in first 2 rounds...the top guys will be slim pickings, which leans me to keep Kamara. 

Edited by jwsbowler
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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, danashort said:

d adams belongs to team 1 for a 1st and hill is team 7 for a 1st..

what if I keep sanders and conner???

I don't see you getting Adams and Hill, and if you drop Kamara, him either.  IMO, these would be the top 3 picks if available.

I trust Conner less than Sanders, and I would keep Moore before Conner.  My opinion!!!   What are your starting requirements?

Edited by jwsbowler
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Players available to be drafted based on Danashort guess...

Kamara, Adams, Mixon, Hill, Ekeler, AJones, CEH, Gurley, Kittle, Golloday

 

So this was order of current ADP for ppr. But I think with news yesterday CEH gets bumped right in with Mixon, slightly behind I suppose since he is rookie. 
 

I have teams drafting in order are teams 1,2, and 4 ahead of Danashort. 
 

I believe team 1 drafts Kamara, teams 2 drafts Adams, and teams 4 drafts Mixon. 
 

This leaves CEH for my taste. But it could be team 4 drafts CEH leaving Mixon for Danashort.

 

So Danashort can pick from CEH, Hill, Ekeler, AJones in my opinion. Since rbs have been going early this year even in ppr, I recommend CEH, Ekeler or AJones. I say this because there will still be great WR available after 6 picks later when Danashort is available to pick again(since I doubt anyone keeps Thielen as a first rounder). 

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2 minutes ago, danashort said:

1 QB

2 RB

2 WR

1 TE

1 FLEX

1 DEF

1 K

Thanks... pretty standard.  

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For Danashort second pick I think available players are Gurley, Kittle, Fournette, Conner, Johnson, Bell, Robinson, Shuster, Cooper

I would think Danashort is set at RB for the moment and entertain Kittle or Robinson. Likely some of the long in the tooth RBs can fall to next pick. So for me I think I would go Kittle because I think he is much better compared to average TE. 
 

So after two picks Danashort could be: 

RB: Sanders, CEH

WR: Moore

TE: Kittle

 

With no restrictions on draft picks for five more rounds. I like that. 😀

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8 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

So Danashort can pick from CEH, Hill, Ekeler, AJones in my opinion. Since rbs have been going early this year even in ppr, I recommend CEH, Ekeler or AJones. I say this because there will still be great WR available after 6 picks later when Danashort is available to pick again(since I doubt anyone keeps Thielen as a first rounder). 

There is no way I would take CEH, Ekeler or Jones over Hill.  I keep Kamara with either Sanders or Moore (leading with Sanders as I have in in the top 20 and Moore 25th.

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17 minutes ago, danashort said:

ugh...thats a totally good point also...####### fantasy football dilemmas hahahahahaha 

I don’t see why you are unhappy. You have first world problems. 🤣

By the time you finished drafting up to round 7 you will be thinking... thank god I listened to that bear... I really owe him at least a case of IPA. 😀

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3 hours ago, danashort said:

So we wont know who is keeping who till day of draft...we had a guy who last year was able to pull off not keeping his first or second picks from previous year and kept 2 other players and then was able to redraft the 2 players he would of normally kept...not that I have an issue with how it fell (kudos to him for pulling it off) but the commishioner was kinda pissed so now we dont know keepers till day of....w/ that being said my guess of keepers of guys ahead of me...

 

Why is the commish pissed?  That is the nature of doing keepers this way.  That guy didn't do anything wrong or even skirt the rules.  He used picks to take the guys he liked best why is that even an issue?  I guess if that guy waited to disclose his keepers until he knew what everyone else's keepers were then it could be an issue but if everyone discloses at the same time nobody is at an advantage or disadvantage.  Odd thing to get mad about.

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1 hour ago, danashort said:

Those are the order in picks...mind you some of those keepers have obviously been kept for years...lol...and I dont think I can take a chance on not keeping kamara and gatting CEH, im sure both will be gone

You can keep guys forever at their original draft capital?  That is a huge advantage for some people.  It also may sway me to change my keepers to Sanders and Moore as you gain more than just this year value with them.  You may not be able to get Kamara back but the guy you can get won't be too far behind (if at all).  Then you get those two guys locked in for great value forever. 

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

You can keep guys forever at their original draft capital?  That is a huge advantage for some people.  It also may sway me to change my keepers to Sanders and Moore as you gain more than just this year value with them.  You may not be able to get Kamara back but the guy you can get won't be too far behind (if at all).  Then you get those two guys locked in for great value forever. 

Bingo. Might even draft CEH, huh? 

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

Bingo. Might even draft CEH, huh? 

I never said I wouldn't take a RB.  You don't seem to understand that point.  I said don't lock yourself into one position because you never know how a draft will go.  I have been doing this for over 35 years and I have been surprised too many times to count at how a draft goes and how talent falls that isn't expected.  I have seen people lock into positions and take lesser players because they were not flexible and have it kill their season.  Draft flexibility is key to being successful year after year. 

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

I never said I wouldn't take a RB.  You don't seem to understand that point.  I said don't lock yourself into one position because you never know how a draft will go.  I have been doing this for over 35 years and I have been surprised too many times to count at how a draft goes and how talent falls that isn't expected.  I have seen people lock into positions and take lesser players because they were not flexible and have it kill their season.  Draft flexibility is key to being successful year after year. 

My point exactly... be flexible and draft you a stud RB in the first. Like CEH, for example. Great idea being flexible and finally advocating taking a stud RB like I’ve been saying all along. Hallelujah. 

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Given that you most likely pick 4th based on your guesses, and with Kamara, Adams, Mixon, Hill, Ekeler are all available (note, I did not do my own work to see if anyone else I would rank up there is available, and I have Ekeler a clear step below those 4), I can't see keeping Kamara in this scenario when you can keep Moore and Sanders for your 7th and 9th.

You can either start with whichever of those 4 players makes it to your pick, plus Moore and Sanders, or you start with Kamara and one of those guys (let's say Moore), but now have to replace Sanders in your lineup with essentially whomever is available in the 7th round (assuming 2nd-6th round picks are the same for our comparison purposes).

 

To me that's not even a close decision, I'm taking the start with Sanders, Moore and one of those 4 players.

 

 

Also, as @Gally said, why would the commissioner be pissed? Your keeper rules are set up to encourage exactly such a scenario. If you had the first overall pick, is there any chance you would even consider keeping Kamara (or any player) for that 1st pick when you could keep 2 others, usually at a better value, and still draft Kamara back? That is basically keeper strategy 101 in any league where you forfeit picks for keepers.

 

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3 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

My point exactly... be flexible and draft you a stud RB in the first. Like CEH, for example. Great idea being flexible and finally advocating taking a stud RB like I’ve been saying all along. Hallelujah. 

Actually it is the exact opposite of your point.  Your suggestion is to force a RB no matter what and then force a WR round 2 no matter what.  That is just bad drafting strategy without knowing how the draft happens.  Your point is to remove all flexibility and draft rigidly no matter what is actually happening. 

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

Actually it is the exact opposite of your point.  Your suggestion is to force a RB no matter what and then force a WR round 2 no matter what.  That is just bad drafting strategy without knowing how the draft happens.  Your point is to remove all flexibility and draft rigidly no matter what is actually happening. 

I just advised Kittle in the second. You can read that right?

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

I just advised Kittle in the second. You can read that right?

Oh, is the draft going on and Kittle made it to his second pick?  I thought the draft was yet to happen so it's all speculation.  At least you have taken my advice to be flexible and not force a WR there like your original suggestion. 

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2 minutes ago, Gally said:

Oh, is the draft going on and Kittle made it to his second pick?  I thought the draft was yet to happen so it's all speculation.  At least you have taken my advice to be flexible and not force a WR there like your original suggestion. 

I didn’t take your advise. I probably never will. Because some things are obvious. Thanks for finally seeing the light and choosing and RB first. With more time you will warm to taking CEH. 

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1 hour ago, danashort said:

very true...ive seen some seriously wacky #### during drafts..lol

Danashort...  My bad on the keeper rules and I was not thinking.  Seems like you are not high on Moore if I am reading this right.  With Sanders and Moore in their slots, and the fact that you can keep them at these spots, Kamara can be let go as you have great value at the back side for a long time.  At your 6th spot, take your BPA, REGARDLESS of position like Blackbear is sticking to.  If Hill falls to you, or Adams... or Mixon if the other two are gone...just trust your rankings.

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