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Clayton Gray

Pick-a-Player -- 1.02 Superflex: Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson, or Patrick Mahomes

Pick-a-Player -- 1.02 Superflex: Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson, or Patrick Mahomes  

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Let's make another decision in the Pick-a-Player series. Every couple of days, we'll give you a situation and ask you to pick one of three players.

A couple of days later, the results will be published on the Footballguys website along with select comments from this thread.

So, let's get to it

It's the 1.02 pick in a 12-team, non-PPR, super-flex draft. Christian McCaffrey was the top pick. Would you take Saquon Barkley, Lamar Jackson, or Patrick Mahomes? Or would you pass on all three?

Starting lineup: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 superflex (QB/RB/WR/TE), 1 PK, 1 Def

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Posted (edited)

Went with Barkley, though there is no real wrong pick. There is such a scarcity of "safe" every down RBs that I would rather go RB here and QB in the second round than the opposite. In my SF league the first 2 rounds tend to be about 50% RB, 25% QB, and 25% WR/TE. There will always be a decent QB at 2.11, there is a risk of the best RB available being someone like Ekeler which I feel has some risk as your RB1 without ppr. 

Edited by huthut

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Mahomes is my dude there, but I’m assuming .1/2 and 6 point PaTd.

scoring is hugely important in considering this question. If QB scoring is deflated (.1/25 or .1/40 PaYd, and PaTD only 4) then Saquon is the obvious choice. 

so yeah - might wanna edit the Q with scoring for better results. :shrug: 

but assuming “normal” scoring, I’m rollin with Mahomie.

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22 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Mahomes is my dude there, but I’m assuming .1/2 and 6 point PaTd.

scoring is hugely important in considering this question. If QB scoring is deflated (.1/25 or .1/40 PaYd, and PaTD only 4) then Saquon is the obvious choice. 

so yeah - might wanna edit the Q with scoring for better results. :shrug: 

but assuming “normal” scoring, I’m rollin with Mahomie.

Normal scoring is 1/25 and 4 PaTD in my experience. :shrug: 

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4 hours ago, huthut said:

Normal scoring is 1/25 and 4 PaTD in my experience. :shrug: 

That’s exactly my point. There’s no such thing as “normal” scoring since every league has variations.

so unless the scoring is stated it’s impossible to give the best advice.

in my dynasty superflex league QBs score .1/40 and 6 pt TD

in my redraft IDP it’s .1/25 with .1 PPC & 6 point TDs

in the redraft team D/ST league I used to play in it was .1/20 & 6 pt TDs

also the value of negative points per interception was different in all 3.

so what’s “normal”? 

just suggesting to the OP to specify the scoring so we can better evaluate and help answer their question. 

Seemed like a fair request. :shrug: 

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I'm leaning toward Mahommes even with 4pt TD pass.  Main decision point for me is the ability to start 2 QB's.  Without knowing who's in the league with me, I don't have any knowledge of opponent's draft strategy.  I play in a super-flex league with the 4pt TD pass.  This league has been going on for at least 10 years and QB's go fast.  I am basing my judgement upon the draft history of that league.

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I never want to be without a great QB in Superflex ever again, though wiser might wait until later.. Give me Mahomes.

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I voted Mahomes, but I'm quite shocked no one took Jackson.  Is Lamar the consensus #1 QB off the board this year?  I've seen lots of people rank LJ as their top QB, so the 18-0 votes seems wild to me.

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This is why I won’t play in a 2 QB league, but you have to pick Mahomes.

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6 hours ago, Deamon said:

I voted Mahomes, but I'm quite shocked no one took Jackson.  Is Lamar the consensus #1 QB off the board this year?  I've seen lots of people rank LJ as their top QB, so the 18-0 votes seems wild to me.

From what I have seen Mahomes is consensus QB1 with LJ being right behind. Fantasy pros consensus ADP has M at 20 and LJ 22 (1 QB league)

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I’m taking Saquon here as getting a top RB in non PPR is critical and even with superflex there won’t be much left as top line on the next turn. 
 

That said, I’d say this is one where you need to know your league. If everyone is going to go massively crazy for QB (i.e. 6-8 gone before next pick) then taking a QB is the best move. 

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None of the options are wrong.  All are worthy of the 2nd pick overall.

Since it's nonPPR league, 12 teams and a superflex, I think the right choice is Mahomes.  I fear a lot of regression coming for Jackson.  In a 12 team superflex, you NEED 2 QBs and you really should want 3, with only a few teams having 3 decent options.  And QBs in this format will go quickly, maybe just as fast at RBs.  So picking Mahomes at 1.2 ensures that I have an elite starter and gives me flexibility with my 2nd and 3rd round picks.  If you take Saquon, then I think that you're boxing yourself into taking 2QBs with the next 2 picks....because I would hate to wait until pick 4.11 to get another QB.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 20+ QBs off the board by that time.

That said, I would go Barkley if it were a PPR league, or if it were a 10 team superflex.  12 teams makes a big difference to how fast QBs go.

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9 hours ago, skinsrule05 said:

From what I have seen Mahomes is consensus QB1 with LJ being right behind. Fantasy pros consensus ADP has M at 20 and LJ 22 (1 QB league)

I tend to downgrade LJ due to his play style.

For dynasty, longevity comes strongly into consideration & RBs who throw well don’t tend to last as long as QBs who run well.

LJ is a much better running QB than many we’ve seen in the past, but he is still a running QB, so I’m weary of his injury potential. 

and yes, Mahomes already hurt his knee, lending a little irony to my response, but it also illustrates my point: QBs take hits and get hurt. Mahomes was hurt on a sneak when a bunch of fat dudes fall on him .

Jackson goes off running & will likely take more big hits in the open field. 

For dynasty I easily have Mahomes ahead of Jackson. 

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21 minutes ago, Clayton Gray said:

And the winner is -- a mix of Mahomes and Barkley! See the percentages here:
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-pick-a-player-barkley-jackson-mahomes

MAH NAME IN LIGHTS!

No, seriously. Thanks for the links and questions. It's an interesting exercise. I especially like Adam Harstad's take about scarcity. That's what I've found in Superflex, only I haven't been able to articulate it like that. Kudos to him!

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

MAH NAME IN LIGHTS!

No, seriously. Thanks for the links and questions. It's an interesting exercise. I especially like Adam Harstad's take about scarcity. That's what I've found in Superflex, only I haven't been able to articulate it like that. Kudos to him!

Agreed. These are fun to do.

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Posted (edited)

I still think RB -> QB -> BPA is the way to go drafting so early. For talk about position scarcity, nothing is more scarce than an every week RB with a high floor and ceiling. There are a most (being generous) 6 in the league: McCaffery, Elliot, and Barkley, with a more tentative Cook, Henry, and Kamara. They will all be gone before the end of the first. You have a reasonable chance at someone like Wilson, Brees, or Ryan in the second, but there are still tons of upside QB#2 picks you can get a round or two later like Stafford where the RB#2 picks are significantly weaker.

I almost always tend to have 2 QB and 2 RB by the end of the 5th round in SF, you can always punt until later on WR and have a team of Marvin Jones/Courtland Sutton types that are good enough for much less draft capital. 

Edited by huthut

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1 hour ago, huthut said:

I still think RB -> QB -> BPA is the way to go drafting so early. For talk about position scarcity, nothing is more scarce than an every week RB with a high floor and ceiling. There are a most (being generous) 6 in the league: McCaffery, Elliot, and Barkley, with a more tentative Cook, Henry, and Kamara. They will all be gone before the end of the first. You have a reasonable chance at someone like Wilson, Brees, or Ryan in the second, but there are still tons of upside QB#2 picks you can get a round or two later like Stafford where the RB#2 picks are significantly weaker.

I almost always tend to have 2 QB and 2 RB by the end of the 5th round in SF, you can always punt until later on WR and have a team of Marvin Jones/Courtland Sutton types that are good enough for much less draft capital. 

I’d argue that the tiers are smaller at the top & have steeper decline at QB than at RB. 

while true that RBs are scarce, starting with Mahomes in a SF league allows you to land a top tier QB1, then go RB/WR for 3-5 rounds and still land a very competent QB2 (tier 5-6), whereas starting RB1 means even if you go QB1 at 2.10, you’re getting a 3rd or 4th tier guy. 

i can see arguments either way, and I’m not saying yours is a bad strategy, but in superflex I want the best QB I can get if I've got a top 3 pick. Especially since the flow usually lends to lots of QBs & WR1s going in the first 24 picks, which means a top tier RB will likely be there for ya in the late 2nd.

the last few years I’ve kind of devalued RB a little. If I’ve got top flight QB/WR/TE, I’ve had good success with a RB2 and a bunch of RB3-4 types to mix & match. There are always late round breakouts, “receiving backs”, GL specialists or injury replacements at the position. Hard to say the same about QB since there’s only one on every team. 

finally, QBs can play into their 40s. RBs Typically have a much shorter shelf-life, comparatively. 

but as I said above, Barkley is a solid pick there & barring injury is likely to be a top flight dynasty asset for years to come. 

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