Pick-a-Player -- 1.05 FPC Draft: Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, or Michael Thomas (1 Viewer)

Let's make another decision in the Pick-a-Player series. Every couple of days, we'll give you a situation and ask you to pick one of three players.

A couple of days later, the results will be published on the Footballguys website along with select comments from this thread.

The Footballguys Players Championships (FPC) has a grand prize of $500,000. It also has a unique scoring system. It's PPR with tight ends get 1.5 points for every reception (all other positions get the standard single point for a catch).

So, it's the 1.05 pick in an FPC draft. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara were the first four picks. Would you take Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, or Michael Thomas? Or would you pass on all three?

Starting lineup: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 PK, 1 Def

of these three, I would take Thomas.  IMO, way too early for Kelce and i feel Cook is more of a 2nd rounder here.

anyone passing on MT should be banned from the FPC. 

There has been some tough decisions in Clayton's series.......but this one isn't.

The pick has to be Thomas. 

Cook's injury history is too big to ignore, and MIN has seen that Mattison is pretty good.....I wouldn't be surprised to see Mattison cut into Cook's production more than last year, in order to keep him from breaking down.  Kelce is great in this format (and he should be gone with the next pick), but give me 120+ catches, 1450+ yards and 9-10 TDs.   No reason to believe that it will be anything different.   Thomas has caught at least 4 passes in every game in his career but ONE.  That's right, 63 of 64 games of catching at least 4 passes.  He has been durable.....hasn't missed a game in his career.  Thomas has averaged 19.3 fantasy points in PPR for his whole career, with his worst year in 2017 where he averaged 16.2 fantasy points while only scoring 5 TDs.  What a model of consistency.  Such a high floor while also having a high ceiling.  Pick him at 1.05 and smile!

fightingillini said:

There has been some tough decisions in Clayton's series.......but this one isn't.

The pick has to be Thomas. 

Cook's injury history is too big to ignore, and MIN has seen that Mattison is pretty good.....I wouldn't be surprised to see Mattison cut into Cook's production more than last year, in order to keep him from breaking down.  Kelce is great in this format (and he should be gone with the next pick), but give me 120+ catches, 1450+ yards and 9-10 TDs.   No reason to believe that it will be anything different.   Thomas has caught at least 4 passes in every game in his career but ONE.  That's right, 63 of 64 games of catching at least 4 passes.  He has been durable.....hasn't missed a game in his career.  Thomas has averaged 19.3 fantasy points in PPR for his whole career, with his worst year in 2017 where he averaged 16.2 fantasy points while only scoring 5 TDs.  What a model of consistency.  Such a high floor while also having a high ceiling.  Pick him at 1.05 and smile!

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That's why ill be the contrarian and take Kelce. He's the clear #1 at his position in a format that requires a TE.

Thomas is a near tie but I break the tie in Kelce's favor because he produces even when the other top KC targets are healthy. And I think E.Sanders is going to be a bigger drain on targets in NO than some think. Sanders is going to compliment Brees' old man "smarts" game and is going to be an attractive check down for Brees when Thomas is blanketed. I don't think Thomas is dropping out of the top 10 WR's by any means. But I can see some throws that Brees would have forced to Thomas in years past going to Sanders who is suddenly always open unlike the other prior Saints WR's. Brees is way to smart to force feed Thomas when Sanders is making it easy to keep the chains moving with lower risk.

Soulfly3 said:

anyone passing on MT should be banned from the FPC. 

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Well ban me now then because I am probably taking Cook here.  Maybe Kelce, but not Thomas.

Don't get me wrong I think Thomas will have a great year, but we are due for some pretty reasonable regression from the most receptions in NFL history.  The guys who had the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most receptions in NFL history saw their receptions the next year drop pretty substantially.

Marvin Harrison: 143 -> 94
Antonio Brown: 136 -> 106
Julio Jones: 136 -> 83

I actually expect there is a pretty good chance that Travis Kelce outscores MT straight up in that format this year.

Just as importantly, it is just too easy to find WRs in FFPC to take one when there are still elite RBs or a difference making TE on the board.  Looking at FFPC ADP drafting someone like MT over Cook now means you're going to be drafting junk like James White or Marlon Mack over guys like Tyler Boyd later on.

Love the divergent takes in here already.

Good options here but I’m taking MT. I think there’s enough of a gap between the top 4 RBs and the next level with Cook, and a similar gap from MT to the next level of WRs. Kelce gets some boost for the 1.5 PPR but not enough to move this high. 
 

Cook would be my 1.06 in this format, Kelce would be late 1 depending on what RBs are left at the pick. 

Our winner is Michael Thomas but another source picked Kelce. Check the article for the full results:
https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-pick-a-player-cook-kelce-thomas

JamesTheScot said:

That's why ill be the contrarian and take Kelce. He's the clear #1 at his position in a format that requires a TE.

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Is he though?  No love for Kittle?  Don't get me wrong, I love Kelce and own him in a couple leagues and would love to have him in more, but I think Kittle is right there with him...

Edit to add - clear choice is Thomas here.  Will be a receptions machine yet again.