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Shaunz33

Footballguys Subscriber Contest is LIVE

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Well usually by now there is a topic and some initial posts about this. A favorite contest of many FBGs. And then typically it comes out in first couple days of August.   Of course that would be a bit early for this year as need to see who opts out, how well training camps start, etc. I figured we could start some conversation anyway. Some people don’t like to talk strategy but oh well. 

In terms of bargains we won’t know until we see prices but one thing I am thinking is it will be hard to pay up for top QB. Should be a lot of bargain QBs particularly presuming still 6pt TD scoring. 

Also this year, more than ever before, larger rosters may be the way to go? Who knows...But I’m looking forward to 1000s of iterations! 😆

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large rosters for sure.  Half the teams may not play in any given week. 

It's always a matter of luck, but FF this year is a complete crap shoot.

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Posted (edited)

Yeah I will probably stress less about it this year because as luck-based as this contest is in the first place (though definitely strategy matters)... but luck will play an outsized role this year unless you have some strategic basis for predicting which teams are more likely to have outbreaks, or maybe increased use of handcuffing is strategic, and overall larger roster sizes (though you don't want to water it down _too_ much if your goal is to win vs. make the playoffs).

Edited by Stray Doug
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We are looking to release the contest by Wednesday, August 5th so that we can have pricing reflective of the possible opt-outs. 

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Its definitely going to be an interesting contest! Looking forward to it, and yes the loss of work productivity from 5 Aug until lock with the hundreds of iterations.....lol! 

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On 7/30/2020 at 9:19 AM, David Dodds said:

We are looking to release the contest by Wednesday, August 5th so that we can have pricing reflective of the possible opt-outs. 

I imagine you guys will need to have contingency plans for the possibility of this season ending early/dealing with interruptions?

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15 hours ago, QuizGuy66 said:

With the August 7th opt out deadline will you guys be moving back the release a week @David Dodds ?

-QG

Was the opt out agreement signed? If not, the opt out deadline will keep moving.

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I guess the offical opt-out deadline is 4pm on Thursday the 6th. That is being reported as official.

-QG

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7 hours ago, Go DC Yourself said:

I wouldn't expect them to finalize player values until after the opt-out deadline.

We are looking to release the contest by Wednesday, August 5th so that we can have pricing reflective of the possible opt-outs. 

I'm irritated.  But then I get irritated every year around this time.

 

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That August 14th date was put up there within the past week. Prior to that it said "early August" which aligned with Dodds mention of August 5th. Not sure what would cause pushing it out until the middle of the month. 

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Must be a huge undertaking figuring this out with the potential of a shortened season.  Still, the over promise, under deliver thing isn't cool.

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Doesn't have to be difficult. If the season is shortened between week 14 - 16 whoever is in the lead wins it. If before then the contest is terminated with no winner. It's a free contest so nobody loses anything. It's not pleasant but you want to keep it simple and not restructure anything at this point. 

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Posted (edited)

Nice! Football season is here.

Edited by Gawain

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This always feels like a "kickoff" of the season for us. Knock yourselves out. 

 

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Crap. So much for a productive 3 weeks. 😄

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Awww yeah, that's sweet.

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Having a year under my belt somehow makes me feel even less confident about the kind of strategy to take, but it’s helpful to know that there may not be eliminations week 1.

...which of course is why there will probably be eliminations week 1. :lol: 

 

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I’ve already changed my lineup 172x

thank you for this gift. :hifive:

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3 hours ago, ZWK said:

Bug report: both Houston RBs are listed as "D Johnson HOU".

Well shoot, I thought David Johnson was abnormally cheap. Back to the drawing board. 

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What are the rule changes this year?  Can someone summarize?

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Will be nothing like my final team, but this was my 30 second attempt to at least have something in there. 

QB - Tom Brady - TB/13 - $15
QB - Drew Brees - NO/6 - $15
QB - Nick Foles - CHI/11 - $5
RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
RB - David Montgomery - CHI/11 - $19
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL/10 - $10
RB - Chase Edmonds - ARI/8 - $8
RB - Adrian Peterson - WAS/8 - $8
RB - Ito Smith - ATL/10 - $7
RB - Darwin Thompson - KC/10 - $3
WR - Amari Cooper - DAL/10 - $23
WR - Robert Woods - LAR/9 - $20
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - A.J. Green - CIN/9 - $16
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $14
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $11
TE - Jonnu Smith - TEN/7 - $9
TE - Eric Ebron - PIT/8 - $8
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
PK - Chandler Catanzaro - NYJ/11 - $2
PK - Greg Joseph - TEN/7 - $2
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $4
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/7 - $3
TD - New York Giants - NYG/11 - $2

 

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Posted (edited)

Minshew seems undervalued to me. Jags D should put him in positive game scripts (behind) and he has a new OC that's had success with Kirk Cousins. 

 

Diontae Johnson/DJ Chark/Devin Singletary are the only players I'm sure will be on my team at this point. 

 

 

Edited by Milkman

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You guys really thought of everything :lol:

Quote

In case games get moved to the other side of the international or interstellar date line, we specify that the date of a game will refer to the local time in the location where the game occurred. In the event that a game occurs outside the traditionally-defined spacetime continuum, it will be considered a Week i game.

 

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First huge wrinkle to consider: teams with week 13 byes, right in the middle of the finals.

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having a hard time this year - it seems like luck will favor the bold at a time when diversification will be needed.

the number of players one ends up with will likely be determined in part by how afraid one is of losing them to absence.

I've landed on a 22-man roster (for now) and had to sacrifice a couple of top tier players to do so. I want to have 24-25, but also don’t want to sacrifice quality for volume. 30 scrubs likely won’t win it, but 18 studs will tank you if 30% miss time. 

this is going to be a challenging year. I’m sure I’ll change this lineup a dozen times or more (if players opt out, get COVID pre-season, etc) but yeah - this is definitely a tough one.

some good value at mid-level QB this year. Which also tells me everyone will probably have Brady & Brees on their teams, which makes owning them kind of moot.  Anticipating that is also challenging - the contrarian play is either going elite QB (at the steep cost of a smaller lineup) or going the opposite & going dirt cheap at QB, which seems problematic as well. 

should be fun to see the lineups people come up with once this goes live. No offense, but I don’t believe any of you people this time of year.  :lol: 

 

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groovy 

shoppin the dollar store this year

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Posted (edited)

For those who want a refresher where they went wrong in the past, or who did well, you can use this link below. You can also change the year and the week number. If you had set a nickname you can easily find yourself. If you didn’t, probably won’t be able to but you can set it for future contests at myFBG -> myFBG classic home and scroll down to My Contest Nickname. 

If you want the final standings then change week# to 16 in the address

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2019/week-1.php

Over the last 5 years (since I started) I haven’t been successful with either small or large teams. And regardless of team size it looks like I spent similar total $ range at each position, so maybe I need to look to adjust that. I plan to go at least 25 players this year but probably not 30. And some years I have selected only 2 QBs but will probably go with 3-4 cheap ones this year. That’s all for now...more to come. Good luck all.

 

PS. we should probably close this thread or merge with David Dodd’s ‘Footballguys Subscriber Contest is Live’ new thread. But I don’t think I can do that 🤷‍♂️ 

Edited by Shaunz33
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9 minutes ago, Shaunz33 said:

PS. we should probably close this thread or merge with David Dodd’s ‘Footballguys Subscriber Contest is Live’ new thread. But I don’t think I can do that

@David Dodds @Joe Bryant @FBG Moderator

Can we merge this thread with the one that David started:  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/787020-footballguys-subscriber-contest-is-live/

 

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11 minutes ago, Shaunz33 said:

Over the last 5 years (since I started) I haven’t been successful with either small or large teams. And regardless of team size it looks like I spent similar total $ range at each position, so maybe I need to look to adjust that.

have you tried picking good players? 
:D 

 

(I keeed, I keeed!) 

good luck this year, & thanks for the link. 

:thumbup:

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

have you tried picking good players? 
:D 

 

(I keeed, I keeed!) 

good luck this year, & thanks for the link. 

:thumbup:

I certainly have tried 😆

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54 minutes ago, Shaunz33 said:

I certainly have tried 😆

Same. :( 

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:pickle:

I'll have to clip and save my pseudo-first entry.  (that is to say the first one I did today that didn't have comically bad byes - like kickers on the same week, that sorta stuff).  I have no idea what's going on so this will be interesting to say the least.  Injuries are tough enough to predict but the COVID lottery adds a whole new level!

And who knows what the bye weeks really work out to be?  Do canceled games get moved into the later bye weeks?  If the season shifts weeks is that week 13 bye really a reak 10 bye all of a sudden? 

And the steeper cut lines with an accelerated schedule - it's gonna be crazy putting this together!

:boxing:

-QG

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Here's the first lineup - I always like my first better than the others (allowing for injuries, etc) and yet I always change it.  Maybe this year I stand pat.

  • 25-26 seemed like the number to roster to me, given this year's health uncertainty. 
  • Other than Travis Kelce, my highest player sits at ninth at his position (CEH). 
  • I thought there was a TON of value at QB and WR, so I constructed my roster accordingly. 
  • I have a receiver that I hate, but I'm going to roll with it because the bye weeks and the value fit.  He'll probably be the guy to lose the contest for me, and I'll hate him more. 
  • I'd probably like to go with more kickers (with the logic that little guys are more susceptible to C-19?), but there was no room to do it without offering one of my three defenses up to the fantasy gods.
  • For me, three Ds is a cardinal rule in best ball (yeah, I see what I did there).  
  • Best of luck to everyone!

QB - Cam Newton - NE/6 - $11
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $8
QB - Dwayne Haskins - WAS/8 - $5
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC/10 - $27
RB - Aaron Jones - GB/5 - $25
RB - Adrian Peterson - WAS/8 - $8
RB - Jalen Richard - LV/6 - $5
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/6 - $18
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/10 - $18
WR - DeVante Parker - MIA/11 - $17
WR - Jarvis Landry - CLE/9 - $14
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Jerry Jeudy - DEN/8 - $12
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $30
TE - Jared Cook - NO/6 - $13
TE - Noah Fant - DEN/8 - $10
PK - Chandler Catanzaro - NYJ/11 - $2
PK - Greg Joseph - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/13 - $2

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I'm going to run calcomatic.com again this year!!!!  You should probably hot off on making any donations until the season actually starts  :lol:  

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7 hours ago, Steeler said:

I'm going to run calcomatic.com again this year!!!!  You should probably hot off on making any donations until the season actually starts  :lol:  

Thanks for doing that

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Posted (edited)

In years past this thread would be 8-10 pages long already.  I'd be 20 iterations in.

I believe many are in the same boat I am - I may not be doing this contest for the first time since...... it started?  

eta - I suppose that betters the odds for those in it!

 

Edited by matuski
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7 minutes ago, matuski said:

In years past this thread would be 8-10 pages long already.  I'd be 20 iterations in.

I believe many are in the same boat I am - I may not be doing this contest for the first time since...... it started?  

eta - I suppose that betters the odds for those in it!

 

It is definitely a different season for sure which presents different challenges for sure. No way to know for sure, but likely to have fewer entries. Last year without any particular reason, there were fewer so yes opportunity will be there, if there is a season.

The availability of the contest provides a nice exercise while we wait regardless.

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23 minutes ago, matuski said:

In years past this thread would be 8-10 pages long already.  I'd be 20 iterations in.

I believe many are in the same boat I am - I may not be doing this contest for the first time since...... it started?  

eta - I suppose that betters the odds for those in it!

 

We released the contest much later than normal so we could accommodate the opt outs.  That threw everything behind schedule. Plus it's tough as the salaries are priced accurately. You can do us all a favor and help spread the word. Thanks. 

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