I saw the post re: the bonus payout last night, but knew I needed to make some edits and wouldn't have time to get to it until tonight. Alas. Wasn't trying to hide the ball, but just didn't have enough lead time to meet the noon deadline instead of the midnight one. I finished my "final" lineup around 11p ET and started writing up my post, and then in the course of writing this post went back and made one last change, getting it in at 1145p.
QB - Russell Wilson - SEA/6 - $17
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $13
Russ establishes a high floor with a good ceiling as well, and I like the early bye week. Jones I locked in at some point, he's got some tough matchups weeks 1-5 but then looks like he's got decent-to-great matchups the rest of the way and through the playoffs. The other thing is if you look at his weekly scores last year he had a couple massive games and that's what you want in best ball. Russ SOS pairs nicely as well on Jones' bye week (11) when Russ faces Arizona at home. This makes me comfortable with just 2 QBs.
Alternatives considered: Early on Kyler was my guy, but I soured on making him my #1... not sure he provides more upside than Russ but costs $1 more and I like a lot of week 8 bye guys at other positions. Dak could have a big year, considered him in a few combos but kept coming back to Russ. Matt Ryan I liked as well, and is probably the main alternative to Russ I could have toggled to instead. Was trying to work in Brady for a while, but never found a combo I liked and hate having even a single dollar guaranteed to be on the bench come top-250.
RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
RB - Aaron Jones - GB/5 - $25
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/11 - $10
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
I locked in on Jacobs pretty early... again, love the early bye, the only downside being that's both him and Russ the same week. Fortunately there weren't other week 6 players I had to have, save for the obligatory $3 Raiders WR. Jones I was locked in on early on thanks to week 5 bye, even with some TD regression he should be solid. Dillon concerned me a bit though, and I started moving away from him. The news that he signed an extension and that Dillon is "tied for 3rd-string" gave me confidence to come back to Jones. Moss with upside if he takes the job from Singletary, but basically the other 3 guys are just there to help set a floor at the position in case Jacobs/Jones have an off game / bye week / C19.
Alternatives considered: Initially I was rolling with the 3-headed monster of Jacobs, Jones, and Conner. But I changed my mind on Conner due what I perceive as higher injury risk... and there are many other players with a week 8 bye I like... including Gibson at RB. I also flirted with Cook but the injury risk at his price scared me. Overall, I try to remind myself not to overspend at RB... I like the points per dollar a bit better at WR and especially TE. Just need 2 solid weekly scores from this group. I considered Carson at $5 less than Jacobs on week 6, but felt Jacobs ceiling is worth the investment. Obviously week 11 could be a nail biter with only 3 rolling, but I've got both my studs, and overall I don't need my RBs to flex (on my roster, that is... please go ahead and flex on the field guys). I've heard really optimistic things about Taylor, but also some reports to temper expectations... went back/forth on him a couple times. Dobbins was the one I was really trying to fit in... been reading how he could be a league winner. But also reading that Ingram isn't about to roll over, so it would take an injury for Dobbins to really shine (he might put up decent numbers in a committee, but not contest-winning numbers). Chris Thompson was another guy who'd be a safety option... get you some points, but not going to blow up... I liked Gore's upside as a 5th RB better based on some reports from Jets camp, and he cost $2 less.
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/7 - $17
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/8 - $13
WR - Preston Williams - MIA/11 - $12
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3
I got sold on reports that Rivers and Hilton are having a strong connection in camp, which is the roster change I knew I needed to make tonight. Kupp gives you big games for best ball, and I didn't have many other week 9 bye players. Jones with week 5 bye is good value , Diontae seems good value too and the bye lines up with other receivers. Preston is a no-brainer IMO, nearly fully recovered, looking great in camp, and should be a steal at $12. Everyone has Edwards for obvious reasons.
Alternatives considered: Too many to go through them all, DJ Chark was on every roster I had until I flipped him for TY Hilton (same price/bye so not taking both, had to choose). Had a lot of Gallup early on, but CeeDee Lamb reports made that pick seem too risky. Had Lamb for a while, but Gallup and Cooper (and Jarwin) make that risky. So many weapons, again, this is why I was considering Dak! I like a few other week 11 guys (esp. Sterling Shepherd) but was already locked on Preston, and it's a late bye. NKeal Harry the other one I had in multiple iterations but not quite cheap enough and not quite confident enough to make him a lock, and I have Russ and Jacobs on bye week 6 already. A late addition to my roster tonight was Shenault, but then he also wound up being in my final cut. Took a passing glance at MVS as well.
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $22
TE - Hunter Henry - LAC/10 - $15
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/9 - $15
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
Well, here it is... 4 TEs. $59 seems a bit crazy but my second place team last year spent $54 on the Kelce/Kittle combo. This year I decided to spread the love a little more (in part to spread the C19 risk) but still invest heavily with guys all capable of having huge games... I likely will be filling at least 1 flex almost every week from this spot, and it will not be surprising if some weeks 3 of these 4 guys will be scoring for me. Expecting some regression in TDs for Andrews but still solid production overall. Henry's potential is there, he's had a few dings, but dude came back from a knee fracture after 4 games. Higbee's late-season surge in usage last year sold me, let's hope it continues! Herndon burned me before as a breakout sleeper candidate but I'm willing to give him another shot based on camp reports this year.
Alternatives considered: I had Ertz early on and still thing he's good value but got sold on Higbee for week 9 bye TE. Goedert was also in a ton of my lineups (the most perhaps) and hope I won't regret leaving him off. Gesicki was tempting, but I had a lot of week 11 already. Doyle was considered as a "solid but not sexy" option and with a good bye week too, but ultimately I wanted more single-game upside from my TEs than I think he offers. Considered fliers on Brate or Akins. Oh, and flirted with Kelce a bit, but Henry at half the price seemed the way to go for week 10 bye. I'm hoping I found the right balance this year of diversifying at TE, but still with guys who offer high ceiling.
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $2
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2
Another D would be nice, but seeing as they aren't susceptible to C19 or injury like individual players are, I was more comfortable sticking with just 2 here. The earlier analysis (thanks again Winz for the file) convinced me that a 3rd D was a nice-to-have... especially if I don't think ATL or JAX D are likely to be this year's total lemons (I don't).
Late move: My 15-minute-before-deadline move was to drop RB Dobbins and WR Shenault (and move Boswell->Hopkins) in order to add Andrews at TE. Dobbins upside is huge but Andrews has weekly upside too, and a much higher expected floor, and only cost $6 more. Shenault was just a toss of the dice pick with a good bye week, but I sure hope I don't regret missing out on him! Overall was just trying to stick with mantra of not over-investing at RB, which allowed me to pick up a hopefully-stud TE in exchange. I don't think I'm chasing last year's numbers here...