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Footballguys Subscriber Contest is LIVE

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##### has been crazy at work for me, so this morning was the first I even thought about the Subscriber contest. I hadn't even paid my subscription until this afternoon, and then I filled out my entry form ONCE, no edits. I'm not going to make any changes at all...rolling with my first pass. Good luck to everyone.

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11 minutes ago, LittlePhatty said:

##### has been crazy at work for me, so this morning was the first I even thought about the Subscriber contest. I hadn't even paid my subscription until this afternoon, and then I filled out my entry form ONCE, no edits. I'm not going to make any changes at all...rolling with my first pass. Good luck to everyone.

I love it! That practically guarantee you a cup 20 finish.

Tinkering will be the death of me.

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QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/10 - $19
QB - Kyler Murray - ARI/8 - $18
QB - Gardner Minshew - JAX/7 - $9
RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
RB - David Johnson - HOU/8 - $21
RB - Kareem Hunt - CLE/9 - $17
RB - Phillip Lindsay - DEN/8 - $11
RB - Chris Thompson - JAX/7 - $5
RB - Benny Snell - PIT/8 - $4
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/7 - $17
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/8 - $13
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3
TE - Darren Waller - LV/6 - $17
TE - Evan Engram - NYG/11 - $16
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/9 - $15
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2

Last try. Wanted more players but needed to fix byes. Just going with it. 

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36 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

All good - just wanted to make sure I understood the rules of the super social shark shenanigans. 

So it’s possible there’s 67, or, if any of those lineups posted before the announcement were edited after posting, “up to 67” possible entries with a few of the earlier ones DQ’d from the super special shark shenanigans. :thumbup:

 

Yes, if any of the unedited lineups posted before noon finish in the Top 100, they'll get an extra $100 added to whatever they win plus a lifetime subscription. 

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3 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Yes, if any of the unedited lineups posted before noon finish in the Top 100, they'll get an extra $100 added to whatever they win plus a lifetime subscription. 

And what about a guy like @-OZ-, who only posted one lineup prior to noon (page 2), but has since changed it.  If he changes back to that page 2 lineup, is he still eligible?

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7 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Yes, if any of the unedited lineups posted before noon finish in the Top 100, they'll get an extra $100 added to whatever they win plus a lifetime subscription. 

Don’t forget to pick your favorite lineup to be eligible to win a mixed case of sauce for your charity! 
 

It just had to be a top 10 finish of the ~67, so your odds are strong! 
:pickle: 

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38 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I SO WANT TO CHANGE MY LINEUP!!!! 

I’ve been wanting to upgrade Hunt to a better RB2 since before I posted it, but the super secret special shark shenanigans prevents me from acting on that impulse.

I feel like I need a support group. 

So, change it.  If you win it all, you won't even miss Joe's bonus!  

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8 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

I suspect I edited my team 100 times since I posted in the thread. Not sure when my last one was. 

Each time I submit a team, I save a copy in Draft Dominator so I can compare iterations to past versions and quickly spot bye issues. The final one I submitted was #41. Of course, there were numerous versions that didn't qualify as an improvement over what I had, so they didn't get submitted or saved.

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Just now, Galileo said:

So, change it.  If you win it all, you won't even miss Joe's bonus!  

Nah - I like my odds slightly better in Joe’s special offer. ;) 

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2 minutes ago, apalmer said:

Each time I submit a team, I save a copy in Draft Dominator so I can compare iterations to past versions and quickly spot bye issues. The final one I submitted was #41. Of course, there were numerous versions that didn't qualify as an improvement over what I had, so they didn't get submitted or saved.

And lo, it was at that exact moment that hot sauce guy knew that he was a minnow swimming in a shark tank. 
:shark:

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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2 minutes ago, Galileo said:

So, change it.  If you win it all, you won't even miss Joe's bonus!  

100 times more likely to finish in the top 100 than to win it all...and changing now doesn't necessarily improve your chances of being #1, while it destroys your chances winning Joe's bonus. Not a good EV.

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5 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

And what about a guy like @-OZ-, who only posted one lineup prior to noon (page 2), but has since changed it.  If he changes back to that page 2 lineup, is he still eligible?

Has to enter the lineup posted before noon.

Also - I don't have time to decide a bunch of stuff. I was as clear as possible and have a zillion things going on. Please don't have me refereeing a ton of stuff. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

And lo, it was at that exact moment that hot sauce guy knew that he was a minnow swimming in a shark tank. 
:shark:

The value of being retired...lots of hours to work on things of importance rather than paying attention to clients.

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4 hours ago, apalmer said:

Noon Eastern time. You can go on editing.

That makes me so sad. You have no idea. But, on the bright side, I wasn't going to finish that high anyway. 

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35 minutes ago, apalmer said:

The value of being retired...lots of hours to work on things of importance rather than paying attention to clients.

Yeah, I mean - I’m self employed so I get to choose which 12 hours a day I work. It’s just that it didn’t even occur to me to plug any of these teams into the DD. 

:shock:

brilliant! 

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3 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yeah, I mean - I’m self employed so I get to choose which 12 hours a day I work. It’s just that it didn’t even occur to me to plug any of these teams into the DD. 

:shock:

brilliant! 

You do have to take the results with a grain of salt because DD isn't set up for bestball.  For example, when I upgraded from Cobb to Lamb, it didn't move my predicted scores on DD at all, because I had 3 or 4 WRs who will score more on the season. DD doesn't/can't predict "sine wave" type scores, it just averages predicted point totals over the entire season, with minor adjustments for schedule difficulty. So, according to DD, Lamb will never post a usable score and isn't an improvement over Cobb. However, you can print out a "Team Weekly Points" report that helps see bye week issues more clearly. And, like I said, it makes it easy to flip back and see what combinations you've tried and didn't like.

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2 minutes ago, apalmer said:

You do have to take the results with a grain of salt because DD isn't set up for bestball.  For example, when I upgraded from Cobb to Lamb, it didn't move my predicted scores on DD at all, because I had 3 or 4 WRs who will score more on the season. DD doesn't/can't predict "sine wave" type scores, it just averages predicted point totals over the entire season, with minor adjustments for schedule difficulty. So, according to DD, Lamb will never post a usable score and isn't an improvement over Cobb. However, you can print out a "Team Weekly Points" report that helps see bye week issues more clearly. And, like I said, it makes it easy to flip back and see what combinations you've tried and didn't like.

Yeah - really good idea, even accounting for the limitations. 
 

Sharp thinking, my friend. :thumbup:

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I SO WANT TO CHANGE MY LINEUP!!!! 

I’ve been wanting to upgrade Hunt to a better RB2 since before I posted it, but the super secret special shark shenanigans prevents me from acting on that impulse.

I feel like I need a support group. 

I feel for you. I am not even sure I want to change my final lineup. However, I do want go through about 48 iterations of what if I try this before it locks.

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Yes, 67 possible

I guess all 67 people who posted will be eligible, even if they edited after noon, as long as they change it back to their final roster on the first 10 pages.  That would be for @Joe Bryant to decide.

I don’t think it is clear if one changes their lineup and then changes it back so I stopped tweaking mine last night. For now I am one of the eligible of possible 67 as long as I can hold out for a few more hours which is proving difficult 

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5 hours ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Sony Michel will probably finish the year with fewer carries than Darrynton Evans.  And I don't even know who that is.

 

He is the guy that will get more carries than Sony Michel. LOL

 

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QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $13
QB - Joe Burrow - CIN/9 - $11
QB - Gardner Minshew - JAX/7 - $9
RB - Todd Gurley - ATL/10 - $24
RB - Jonathan Taylor - IND/7 - $21
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/8 - $16
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/11 - $10
RB - Joshua Kelley - LAC/10 - $8
RB - Justice Hill - BAL/8 - $3
WR - A.J. Brown - TEN/7 - $22
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/6 - $18
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - Mike Williams - LAC/10 - $10
WR - Justin Jefferson - MIN/7 - $9
WR - Laviska Shenault - JAX/7 - $5
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $14
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $12
TE - Blake Jarwin - DAL/10 - $9
PK - Jason Myers - SEA/6 - $4
PK - Mason Crosby - GB/5 - $4
PK - Dan Bailey - MIN/7 - $4
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/6 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $2
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2

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16 minutes ago, The Future Champs said:

QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $13
QB - Joe Burrow - CIN/9 - $11
QB - Gardner Minshew - JAX/7 - $9

I like the youth movement at QB! 

if Jones & Burrow play to expectations you might have a big year. Lot of risk/reward players that might scare others off too - id be willing to wager this is one of the more unique roster combinations. 

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2 hours ago, apalmer said:

Each time I submit a team, I save a copy in Draft Dominator so I can compare iterations to past versions and quickly spot bye issues. The final one I submitted was #41. Of course, there were numerous versions that didn't qualify as an improvement over what I had, so they didn't get submitted or saved.

How do you copy a lineup in draft dominator?

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8 minutes ago, chocula said:

How do you copy a lineup in draft dominator?

I wanted to rank my dynasty team so I set every team to manual draft, entered all my players for me, then set them all back to auto draft. I clicked a pick for one of the other teams & auto draft filled in the rest. Worked great! 

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

And what about a guy like @-OZ-, who only posted one lineup prior to noon (page 2), but has since changed it.  If he changes back to that page 2 lineup, is he still eligible?

I'd have to bring back guice and rojo. Jones might be okay but that lineup has sailed.

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I'd have to bring back guice and rojo. Jones might be okay but that lineup has sailed.

Yeah, probably for the best. 

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43 minutes ago, chocula said:

How do you copy a lineup in draft dominator?

You have to set up a 1 team league, then manually select players. When I have a team worth submitting I save it as FBG 20-01. Next time I open that team and make my changes to see how it looks. If it's better than the previous version, I submit it in the contest and save the DD file as FBG20-02.

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Tried a million different combos, landed on the following. Whatever.....

 

QB - Drew Brees - NO/6 - $15
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/8 - $11
RB - Derrick Henry - TEN/7 - $30
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC/10 - $27
RB - James Conner - PIT/8 - $23
RB - Phillip Lindsay - DEN/8 - $11
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/10 - $31
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/6 - $18
WR - Marquise Brown - BAL/8 - $16
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/10 - $12
WR - Jerry Jeudy - DEN/8 - $12
WR - Parris Campbell - IND/7 - $7
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $14
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/10 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/6 - $3

 

Lots of week 8 byes but I just couldn't make it work without a little bit of overlap there. So I'm just gonna roll with it.

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6 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Looks like it’s official: Chase Edmonds is on every single roster. 

I think you misspelled Bryan Edwards.

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4 hours ago, -OZ- said:

Oh well. 

This is my lineup, last edited last night.

I thought you were planning "large rosters for sure"? Change of heart?

I expect there to be more injuries than usual and at least a few Covid cases so I went with 29 players and only one team defense this season. Of course, if that team has a game(s) cancelled I'll be screwed but I figure if the NFL is having that big a problem(and it's possible imo) then the contest is going to be a dartboard exercise anyway.

We'll see if Covid has a bigger effect on this season than most people assume that it will. I always fall in love with "sleepers" anyway but I've never been as invested in them as I am this year. EXCLUDING K's/DEF I have 11 different players that were $5 or less.

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7 hours ago, cstruk said:

I was wondering your thoughts on Ertz. Last year Ertz scored almost as much as Kittle although it was in one less game and he is $7 less. Also if he approaches last year’s numbers he should outscore most of the WRs in the $20 range. I don’t see much reason for regression as Philly’s WRs are still a mess. Maybe I am overlooking Goedert taking over a larger role but I am not seeing that as he had a pretty big share last year. In short, I see a solid bargain without a lot of excessive risk and wondered why you thought otherwise.

I expect some regression.  i didn't mean it wasn't a strong pick, just that it didn't scream value.  I'd consider him the equivalent of Waller on a $/pt basis and there were a lot of good TE bargains IMO.

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Think this is it for me...

 

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA/6 - $17
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/8 - $11
QB - Gardner Minshew - JAX/7 - $9
RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
RB - Phillip Lindsay - DEN/8 - $11
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/11 - $10
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
RB - Joshua Kelley - LAC/10 - $8
RB - Malcolm Brown - LAR/9 - $4
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/6 - $18
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - Marquise Brown - BAL/8 - $16
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/10 - $12
WR - Preston Williams - MIA/11 - $12
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $30
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $11
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
TE - Jordan Akins - HOU/8 - $3
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/7 - $3
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/10 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/6 - $3

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4 hours ago, apalmer said:

Each time I submit a team, I save a copy in Draft Dominator so I can compare iterations to past versions and quickly spot bye issues. The final one I submitted was #41. Of course, there were numerous versions that didn't qualify as an improvement over what I had, so they didn't get submitted or saved.

A pretty good idea. I was more systematic about my approach in the past. I wrote some software to optimize lineups. It was on a laptop that got stolen and I never got back to it. This would be a nice middle ground. 

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QB - Tom Brady - 15
QB - Gardner Minshew - 9
QB - Sam Darnold - 7
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 27
RB - Josh Jacobs - 26
RB - Jonathan Taylor - 21
RB - Antonio Gibson - 9
WR - Terry McLaurin - 20
WR - D.J. Chark - 17
WR - Michael Gallup - 16
WR - Tyler Boyd - 16
WR - Marvin Jones - 13
WR - Bryan Edwards - 3
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - 3
TE - Darren Waller - 17
TE - Jonnu Smith - 9
TE - Jace Sternberger - 7
PK - Dustin Hopkins - 2
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - 2
PK - Sam Sloman - 2
TD - Minnesota Vikings - 4
TD - Green Bay Packers - 3
TD - New York Giants - 2

Total value: 250
 

I didn’t get this posted by noon, but I haven’t Changed it since yesterday. 

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I am so looking forward to playing with this year's contest querier.  Hope it is up and running fairly soon after lockout.

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Ok, team analysis for my picks!

In general my strategy was.... I wanted to pick players I felt had upside to be either a #1 score for their position in any given week, or at least the upside to post a top 5 score in any given week. I'd rather roll the dice with a few players I like with that potential and hope for the best, rather than filling my roster with a buncha dudes who seem destined to give me no more than 10-15 every week. Try not too have too many players or $ on any given week. Try to front load byes where possible. Try to pick dudes who aren't going to get hurt or lose their jobs. 

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA/6 - $17
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $8
QB - Dwayne Haskins - WAS/8 - $5

Wilson seems like the best value to me, has shown #1 QB upside in any given week, a couple of great WR's, and I kinda expect Carson to get hurt at some point which should increase Wilson's attempts. Expecting top 3 overall finish. Cousins feels relatively safe to provide some floor, and potential upside if Cook has any issues and a heavier passing game plan is required.  I think Haskins will end up with a fantasy year similar to what Trubisky had last year... overall sorta meh numbers, but a few brilliant weeks. $5 for a few gems seems worthwhile. I typically only run 2 QB's, but last year an injury to Matt Ryan (his first missed game in how many years??) on LJax's bye week kicked me out, spent a couple extra bucks to try and avoid a 0 at what is typically the highest scoring roster position.

 

RB - Aaron Jones - GB/5 - $25
RB - James Conner - PIT/8 - $23
RB - Jonathan Taylor - IND/7 - $21
RB - Tarik Cohen - CHI/11 - $14

I really really wanted to take Aaron Rogers to helm my QB's. But after much research and deliberation, I couldn't make the argument, couldn't make the pick. They feel like a run heavy team. So, went with Aaron Jones to lead my backs as he seems to have a pretty clear path to a similar workload to last year, and demonstrated multiple #1 weekly finishes.  Conner should rebound with Ben (and the threat of a good passing attack) back, I don't hold last year against him. Taylor seems like a stud in waiting, hopefully picks up steam in the second half of the year. And I really like Cohen to pick up some extra volume given early injury news to the others in the backfield, I see him with some 2019 Ekeler like potential to really break out.   This is a big area of risk for my team, both being light on bodies as well as choosing not to take many other highly owned players (Moss/Gibson/Thompson/etc), but if either these guys hit, or most of the others highly selected guys miss... it may work out ok.


WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/7 - $21
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/6 - $18
WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/10 - $16
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/9 - $16
WR - Brandin Cooks - HOU/8 - $14
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3

I wanted the top target for my main QB's for some double dipping potential, and they both seem prime for top 10 WR seasons. I think Gallup ends up the best WR in Dallas this year. Boyd has been consistent the last couple years and should emerge as Burrow's favorite target. Cooks has shown great big play ability and just needs a little health luck (not off to a great start). Then the same cheap dart throw many others are taking.  This feels like a strong area for my team and should typically provide 3-4 scoring players each week.


TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $30
TE - O.J. Howard - TB/13 - $7

Taking a big risk running two here, but I really wanted a piece of KC's game and Kelce is just a stud. Low on funds after splurging more on the above players, so went with the cheapest option I see with top 5 potential. Brady loves TE's, Howard has shown flashes before, and Gronk hasn't been known to stay healthy the whole season. Feels like a reasonable gamble, but with some risk and realistic potential reward.


PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/5 - $2
TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $2
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/11 - $2

Three cheap dart throws at each. Would have bumped a kicker up a dollar if it was available, or would have bought another cheap option if I had $2.  Try to keep these two at ~15 total, allowing for more dollars at the premium scoring positions. 

 

Best of luck to everyone!

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I expect some regression.  i didn't mean it wasn't a strong pick, just that it didn't scream value.  I'd consider him the equivalent of Waller on a $/pt basis and there were a lot of good TE bargains IMO.

That's a reasonable take.  I would point out that 2019 was a down year for Ertz and the Eagles, so the regression needle might point the other way. 

His 2018 production was on par with Kelce and Kittle. 

I expect the Raiders offense to be a little more polyvalent this year (Jacobs is my RB2), and I expect the league to deal with Lamar better this year with a year of film.  

My only concern would be the recent rash of Philly injuries, but if the injury bug stays away from Wentz and Ertz, that too may be a net positive.

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I edited mine up to the deadline:

QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/8 - $11
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $7
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/10 - $26
RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
RB - James Conner - PIT/8 - $23
RB - Sony Michel - NE/6 - $12
RB - Phillip Lindsay - DEN/8 - $11
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
WR - Odell Beckham - CLE/9 - $22
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/8 - $13
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/11 - $11
WR - Anthony Miller - CHI/11 - $10
WR - NKeal Harry - NE/6 - $9
WR - Allen Lazard - GB/5 - $7
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $14
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $12
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
PK - Austin Seibert - CLE/9 - $3
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/7 - $4
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2

Might still change it,

 

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Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Deshaun Watson - HOU/8 - $18
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $7
QB - Tyrod Taylor - LAC/10 - $6
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/10 - $26
RB - James White - NE/6 - $15
RB - Boston Scott - PHI/9 - $11
RB - Duke Johnson - HOU/8 - $10
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
RB - Chris Thompson - JAX/7 - $5
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/8 - $20
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - Tyler Boyd - CIN/9 - $16
WR - Will Fuller - HOU/8 - $15
WR - Corey Davis - TEN/7 - $6
WR - Randall Cobb - HOU/8 - $6
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/5 - $3
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3
TE - Hunter Henry - LAC/10 - $15
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/9 - $11
TE - Eric Ebron - PIT/8 - $8
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/7 - $6
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/11 - $2

Total value: 250

 

My second team  because I'm buzzed....sipping Jameson....and why not???!!

 

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Is this gonna lock on time this year or do I have time to make another 15 revisions?

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7 hours ago, apalmer said:

Each time I submit a team, I save a copy in Draft Dominator so I can compare iterations to past versions and quickly spot bye issues. The final one I submitted was #41. Of course, there were numerous versions that didn't qualify as an improvement over what I had, so they didn't get submitted or saved.

Been doing this since Peyton Manning's historic 2013 season with Denver.  It's definitely helped.  I've finished in the money once.... and in the top 250 3 times

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I saw the post re: the bonus payout last night, but knew I needed to make some edits and wouldn't have time to get to it until tonight. Alas. Wasn't trying to hide the ball, but just didn't have enough lead time to meet the noon deadline instead of the midnight one.  I finished my "final" lineup around 11p ET and started writing up my post, and then in the course of writing this post went back and made one last change, getting it in at 1145p.

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA/6 - $17
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/11 - $13

Russ establishes a high floor with a good ceiling as well, and I like the early bye week.  Jones I locked in at some point, he's got some tough matchups weeks 1-5 but then looks like he's got decent-to-great matchups the rest of the way and through the playoffs. The other thing is if you look at his weekly scores last year he had a couple massive games and that's what you want in best ball. Russ SOS pairs nicely as well on Jones' bye week (11) when Russ faces Arizona at home.  This makes me comfortable with just 2 QBs.

Alternatives considered: Early on Kyler was my guy, but I soured on making him my #1... not sure he provides more upside than Russ but costs $1 more and I like a lot of week 8 bye guys at other positions. Dak could have a big year, considered him in a few combos but kept coming back to Russ. Matt Ryan I liked as well, and is probably the main alternative to Russ I could have toggled to instead. Was trying to work in Brady for a while, but never found a combo I liked and hate having even a single dollar guaranteed to be on the bench come top-250.

 

RB - Josh Jacobs - LV/6 - $26
RB - Aaron Jones - GB/5 - $25
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/11 - $10
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3

I locked in on Jacobs pretty early... again, love the early bye, the only downside being that's both him and Russ the same week.  Fortunately there weren't other week 6 players I had to have, save for the obligatory $3 Raiders WR. Jones I was locked in on early on thanks to week 5 bye, even with some TD regression he should be solid.  Dillon concerned me a bit though, and I started moving away from him. The news that he signed an extension and that Dillon is "tied for 3rd-string" gave me confidence to come back to Jones. Moss with upside if he takes the job from Singletary, but basically the other 3 guys are just there to help set a floor at the position in case Jacobs/Jones have an off game / bye week / C19.

Alternatives considered: Initially I was rolling with the 3-headed monster of Jacobs, Jones, and Conner. But I changed my mind on Conner due what I perceive as higher injury risk... and there are many other players with a week 8 bye I like... including Gibson at RB. I also flirted with Cook but the injury risk at his price scared me. Overall, I try to remind myself not to overspend at RB... I like the points per dollar a bit better at WR and especially TE. Just need 2 solid weekly scores from this group. I considered Carson at $5 less than Jacobs on week 6, but felt Jacobs ceiling is worth the investment. Obviously week 11 could be a nail biter with only 3 rolling, but I've got both my studs, and overall I don't need my RBs to flex (on my roster, that is... please go ahead and flex on the field guys). I've heard really optimistic things about Taylor, but also some reports to temper expectations... went back/forth on him a couple times. Dobbins was the one I was really trying to fit in... been reading how he could be a league winner. But also reading that Ingram isn't about to roll over, so it would take an injury for Dobbins to really shine (he might put up decent numbers in a committee, but not contest-winning numbers). Chris Thompson was another guy who'd be a safety option... get you some points, but not going to blow up... I liked Gore's upside as a 5th RB better based on some reports from Jets camp, and he cost $2 less.

 

WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/7 - $17
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/8 - $13
WR - Preston Williams - MIA/11 - $12
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3

I got sold on reports that Rivers and Hilton are having a strong connection in camp, which is the roster change I knew I needed to make tonight. Kupp gives you big games for best ball, and I didn't have many other week 9 bye players. Jones with week 5 bye is good value , Diontae seems good value too and the bye lines up with other receivers. Preston is a no-brainer IMO, nearly fully recovered, looking great in camp, and should be a steal at $12. Everyone has Edwards for obvious reasons.

Alternatives considered: Too many to go through them all, DJ Chark was on every roster I had until I flipped him for TY Hilton (same price/bye so not taking both, had to choose). Had a lot of Gallup early on, but CeeDee Lamb reports made that pick seem too risky.  Had Lamb for a while, but Gallup and Cooper (and Jarwin) make that risky. So many weapons, again, this is why I was considering Dak! I like a few other week 11 guys (esp. Sterling Shepherd) but was already locked on Preston, and it's a late bye. NKeal Harry the other one I had in multiple iterations but not quite cheap enough and not quite confident enough to make him a lock, and I have Russ and Jacobs on bye week 6 already. A late addition to my roster tonight was Shenault, but then he also wound up being in my final cut. Took a passing glance at MVS as well.

 

TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/8 - $22
TE - Hunter Henry - LAC/10 - $15
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/9 - $15
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7

Well, here it is... 4 TEs.  $59 seems a bit crazy but my second place team last year spent $54 on the Kelce/Kittle combo.  This year I decided to spread the love a little more (in part to spread the C19 risk) but still invest heavily with guys all capable of having huge games... I likely will be filling at least 1 flex almost every week from this spot, and it will not be surprising if some weeks 3 of these 4 guys will be scoring for me. Expecting some regression in TDs for Andrews but still solid production overall. Henry's potential is there, he's had a few dings, but dude came back from a knee fracture after 4 games. Higbee's late-season surge in usage last year sold me, let's hope it continues! Herndon burned me before as a breakout sleeper candidate but I'm willing to give him another shot based on camp reports this year.

Alternatives considered: I had Ertz early on and still thing he's good value but got sold on Higbee for week 9 bye TE. Goedert was also in a ton of my lineups (the most perhaps) and hope I won't regret leaving him off. Gesicki was tempting, but I had a lot of week 11 already. Doyle was considered as a "solid but not sexy" option and with a good bye week too, but ultimately I wanted more single-game upside from my TEs than I think he offers. Considered fliers on Brate or Akins. Oh, and flirted with Kelce a bit, but Henry at half the price seemed the way to go for week 10 bye. I'm hoping I found the right balance this year of diversifying at TE, but still with guys who offer high ceiling.

 

PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Sam Sloman - LAR/9 - $2

TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $2
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2

Another D would be nice, but seeing as they aren't susceptible to C19 or injury like individual players are, I was more comfortable sticking with just 2 here. The earlier analysis (thanks again Winz for the file) convinced me that a 3rd D was a nice-to-have... especially if I don't think ATL or JAX D are likely to be this year's total lemons (I don't).

 

Late move: My 15-minute-before-deadline move was to drop RB Dobbins and WR Shenault (and move Boswell->Hopkins) in order to add Andrews at TE.  Dobbins upside is huge but Andrews has weekly upside too, and a much higher expected floor, and only cost $6 more.  Shenault was just a toss of the dice pick with a good bye week, but I sure hope I don't regret missing out on him!  Overall was just trying to stick with mantra of not over-investing at RB, which allowed me to pick up a hopefully-stud TE in exchange. I don't think I'm chasing last year's numbers here...

Edited by Stray Doug
typos and such
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Guess I missed the cutoff for Joe's contest. I didn't realize. I did post a lineup a long time ago but it is quite different now.

QB - Kyler Murray - ARI/8 - $18
QB - Derek Carr - LV/6 - $7
QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/9 - $2
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/6 - $21
RB - Jonathan Taylor - IND/7 - $21
RB - J.K. Dobbins - BAL/8 - $16
RB - Zack Moss - BUF/11 - $10
RB - Antonio Gibson - WAS/8 - $9
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/6 - $33
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/8 - $20
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - Marquise Brown - BAL/8 - $16
WR - Darius Slayton - NYG/11 - $12
WR - Michael Pittman - IND/7 - $8
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/5 - $3
WR - Bryan Edwards - LV/6 - $3
TE - Jonnu Smith - TEN/7 - $9
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
TE - Devin Asiasi - NE/6 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - DAL/10 - $5
PK - Stephen Gostkowski - TEN/7 - $2
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/9 - $3
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2

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10 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

I thought you were planning "large rosters for sure"? Change of heart?

I expect there to be more injuries than usual and at least a few Covid cases so I went with 29 players and only one team defense this season. Of course, if that team has a game(s) cancelled I'll be screwed but I figure if the NFL is having that big a problem(and it's possible imo) then the contest is going to be a dartboard exercise anyway.

We'll see if Covid has a bigger effect on this season than most people assume that it will. I always fall in love with "sleepers" anyway but I've never been as invested in them as I am this year. EXCLUDING K's/DEF I have 11 different players that were $5 or less.

Honestly, I didn't put near the effort or time in this year as previous years. I've barely kept up with the NFL. 

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10207 entries, so no cut first week and only 207 lopped off week 2, SO see everyone week 3...lol! 

Seriously Joe wasn't lying about low numbers! Hopefully he has a bunch more that have the subscription but didn't enter. 

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Well, I did manage to stay away from my computer and not change my roster.  Curious as to how many of the 67 eligible are still in the running?

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Just now, TheWinz said:

Well, I did manage to stay away from my computer and not change my roster.  Curious as to how many of the 67 eligible are still in the running?

I posted right after Joe made the offer and didn't change mine. 

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1 minute ago, Dacomish said:

I posted right after Joe made the offer and didn't change mine. 

I had posted 2 days earlier, and had bye conflicts.  Decided WTH and kept the team and bye conflicts.  3 of my 6 RB's are off week 11

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6 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Well, I did manage to stay away from my computer and not change my roster.  Curious as to how many of the 67 eligible are still in the running?

:hey:

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