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2020 Anarchy League 2 Thread

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4 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I typically do it at conclusion of the draft and outset of the season. The timing this year implies there will be less change, since the season starts on Thursday. I will do it if I have time.

Preseason projections are like power rankings. They don’t mean anything. Guys that cover NE are almost unanimous that the Pats will have Folk as their kicker, it’s just how they facilitate it. Apparently there are different rules this year, and Folk literally could be a game day call up each week to get them more flexibility with their game day roster. I would be surprised if Folk scored 0 points this year. The group of NE kickers last year combined to score 139 points in the Anarchy format. So I guess his scoring projection could be anywhere from 0 to 139 points. 

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Preseason projections are like power rankings. They don’t mean anything. Guys that cover NE are almost unanimous that the Pats will have Folk as their kicker, it’s just how they facilitate it. Apparently there are different rules this year, and Folk literally could be a game day call up each week to get them more flexibility with their game day roster. I would be surprised if Folk scored 0 points this year. The group of NE kickers last year combined to score 139 points in the Anarchy format. So I guess his scoring projection could be anywhere from 0 to 139 points. 

I think you have almost convinced yoursel on this one.

Keep hope alive!!

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14 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Oh and David Dodds does a fine job of projecting JWB I am surprised that Tee Higgins is projected for more than 50 points while Van Jefferson is not.

He projects Higgins for 80.5, so he does not see them as being particularly close.

I'm not sure why you are surprised by it. Jefferson is the #4 WR for the Rams, behind Kupp, Woods, and Reynolds. And he is likely also behind both Higbee and Everett, and it is expected that the Rams will run more 12 personnel this season because they have both of them. So how many targets can reasonably be projected for Jefferson, barring injury(ies) ahead of him?

Perhaps your point isn't that Jefferson is underprojected so much as Higgins is overprojected. I could see that.

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Preseason projections are like power rankings. They don’t mean anything. Guys that cover NE are almost unanimous that the Pats will have Folk as their kicker, it’s just how they facilitate it. Apparently there are different rules this year, and Folk literally could be a game day call up each week to get them more flexibility with their game day roster. I would be surprised if Folk scored 0 points this year. The group of NE kickers last year combined to score 139 points in the Anarchy format. So I guess his scoring projection could be anywhere from 0 to 139 points. 

I'm not arguing this point, so I think you are arguing with no one. I posted a data point. I pointed out that there will be less change between that and the start of the season than in years past. I didn't say anything specifically about Folk.

Yes, of course, preseason projections are not very meaningful. Hence all of the caveats in my post with them. If you think they are useless, ignore the post.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

He projects Higgins for 80.5, so he does not see them as being particularly close.

I'm not sure why you are surprised by it. Jefferson is the #4 WR for the Rams, behind Kupp, Woods, and Reynolds. And he is likely also behind both Higbee and Everett, and it is expected that the Rams will run more 12 personnel this season because they have both of them. So how many targets can reasonably be projected for Jefferson, barring injury(ies) ahead of him?

Perhaps your point isn't that Jefferson is underprojected so much as Higgins is overprojected. I could see that.

Yeah Higgins in the Bengals 5th WR on a worse offense, although Burrow could change that I suppose.

I was mostly thinking Higgins numbers are too optimistic.

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On 9/6/2020 at 9:42 AM, Just Win Baby said:

This was already discussed earlier in the thread. Losing 100 points for a PK is completely different from losing 300+ points for a QB if we had no TMQB.

Losing a PK does not kill a season. I drafted Gostkowski in the 10th round last year and lost him after 4 games and 34 points. I won the league. Had I drafted Lamar Jackson instead of the BAL TMQB, and he got hurt, I most assuredly would not have won the league; I'm sure I would have been in the bottom half somewhere.

It's apples and oranges.

The problem with PKs is that they're stupid. Whether Adrian Peterson will keep his job in Washington or not is something that is available for analysis. Whether Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert will play QB for the Chargers is available for analysis. But with maybe half of the kickers in the NFL, three bad days in camp will put them at risk for their jobs. And there will be no reporting about it until the cut, as with Chase McLaughlin for example. It's a silly thing to waste time on.

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6 minutes ago, CalBear said:

The problem with PKs is that they're stupid. Whether Adrian Peterson will keep his job in Washington or not is something that is available for analysis. Whether Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert will play QB for the Chargers is available for analysis. But with maybe half of the kickers in the NFL, three bad days in camp will put them at risk for their jobs. And there will be no reporting about it until the cut, as with Chase McLaughlin for example. It's a silly thing to waste time on.

How many teams actually switched kickers? Five? The Bears ended up having an injury to their kicker. It happens. That’s far from half the league switching kickers. And all it took was minimal research to find out that there were kicking battles going on in camp. Sure, several teams did have kicker battles, but at least half the league had perfectly safe kickers to pick from. Again, that’s what makes steady and safe kickers worth picks 3-4 rounds earlier. 

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In May, I had Chase McLaughlin ranked as one of the 3 kickers who was most at risk of losing his job (out of the 32 apparent starting kickers). It looks like all the May frontrunners who aren't starting wk1 were among the 11 who were most at risk of losing their job (although I might have missed someone; I just glanced through the list).

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47 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

How many teams actually switched kickers? Five? The Bears ended up having an injury to their kicker. It happens. That’s far from half the league switching kickers. And all it took was minimal research to find out that there were kicking battles going on in camp. Sure, several teams did have kicker battles, but at least half the league had perfectly safe kickers to pick from. Again, that’s what makes steady and safe kickers worth picks 3-4 rounds earlier. 

Still stupid.

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2 hours ago, CalBear said:

The problem with PKs is that they're stupid. Whether Adrian Peterson will keep his job in Washington or not is something that is available for analysis. Whether Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert will play QB for the Chargers is available for analysis. But with maybe half of the kickers in the NFL, three bad days in camp will put them at risk for their jobs. And there will be no reporting about it until the cut, as with Chase McLaughlin for example. It's a silly thing to waste time on.

this is where the problem lies....and where you miss the point....once you realize its not silly to waste time on....then it becomes value....and has a price....

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as a side note to the PK thing.......IMO they are such a HUGE difference maker in real football....week to week....wins vs loses.....making the playoffs.....not making the playoffs.....double doinking....etc....they should probably have more value in fantasy football if we could find a way......not less.....I know FF is all about points....but we try to make it as close to the real thing as we can....don't we...?...with VBD and what not....you bet.....and a PK may only kick one FG in a game....but it might be the biggest 3 points of that teams season let alone that week....your 3rd WR (name any we draft....and start) has a "bad game or games"....nobody cares....but.....your PK has a "bad game"......and it could be :bye: to him and your playoff chances....PK's are HUGE in real football and the good ones have value.....they should in fantasy too....

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12 hours ago, CalBear said:

The problem with PKs is that they're stupid. Whether Adrian Peterson will keep his job in Washington or not is something that is available for analysis. Whether Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert will play QB for the Chargers is available for analysis. But with maybe half of the kickers in the NFL, three bad days in camp will put them at risk for their jobs. And there will be no reporting about it until the cut, as with Chase McLaughlin for example. It's a silly thing to waste time on.

Well, I was aware that McLaughlin might not make it and purposely avoided the Colts PK situation as a result. There was indeed reporting about that camp battle; I read multiple reports about it. So I don't think that is a particularly good example to support your case. :shrug: 

Edited by Just Win Baby

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(ADP from all Anarchy Leagues, L2 Draft info, 2019 year-end ranking)

Quarterbacks:
Saints TMQB (All ADP QB5 - 32 | L2 QB6 - 36 | 2019: QB3)
Falcons TMQB (All ADP QB10 - 74 | L2 QB10 - 100 | 2019: QB11)

Overall, most of my picks in this league had me taking guys later in this league than the other leagues. While that might not matter if the players all underperform, it should help get more total production (in theory) if things do work out. I still see Brees as a Top 5 QB in this format (with 2 other decent QB options behind him) and I see the Saints getting at least 2 playoff games. Brees could start showing his age, but I don't see him falling way, way off. I often end up with Ryan in these leagues, not because I love Ryan, but apparently the rest of you guys don't love him either. He went 52 picks earlier in L1 . . . so yeah, count me in at such discounted price.

Running Backs:
Aaron Jones GBP (All ADP RB9 - 21 | L2 RB11 - 29 | 2019: RB3)
Mark Ingram BAL (All ADP RB23 - 63 | L2 RB24 - 68 | 2019: RB7)
Jordan Howard MIA (All ADP RB35 - 119 | L2 RB38 - 132 | 2019: RB39)
Sony Michel NEP (All ADP RB40 - 139 | L2 RB45 - 157 | 2019: RB24)

I am not a huge fan of taking RBs early, and I REALLY am not a fan of taking all of them in the top half of the draft. However, it seems like most owners were taking WR and TE and let some RBs fall. I don't love Jones and think he will struggle to get close to the numbers he put up last year . . . and the Packers rewarded that performance by drafting a RB. Ingram had another solid season and finish as RB7 . . . and the Ravens rewarded that performance by drafting a RB. BAL had almost 600 rushing attempts last year (and I think they start to take carries away from Lamar), so there should still be enough touches to keep Ingram in the Top 20 RB. Howard was actually the RB13 last year before he had to shut it down in PHI. He's still only 25 and has been productive when healthy. Not sure why the fantasy community has mostly shunned him. Michel isn't very good, yet NE still has given him a decent workload. He's said to have some bounce back this year and Harris is out at least the first 3 weeks. I don't see BB just plain sitting him unless he starts coughing up the football. Overall, I think this is a decent stable of backs . . . but in this league I am not sure that is the position you want to have a strong unit in.

Wide Receivers:
Robert Woods LAR (All ADP WR18 - 50 | L2 WR21 - 61 | 2019: WR18)
Marvin Jones DET (All ADP WR35 - 95 | L2 WR35 - 93 | 2019: WR32)
Breshad Perriman NYJ (All ADP WR57 - 160 | L2 WR61 - 164 | 2019: WR54)
Parris Campbell IND (All ADP WR67 - 195 | L2 WR73 - 221 | 2019: WR1125)
Steven Sims WAS (All ADP WR74 - 228 | L2 WR75 - 228 | 2019: WR68)

Since I invested in other positions, that left me weaker at WR. The good news is I picked 5 receivers that are NFL starters (whether that means anything, who knows). Woods was the WR6 in Weeks 10-17. Jones was the WR14 through 12 games before he got hurt (and a decent chunk of that without Stafford). Somehow, Perriman was the WR3 the last month of the regular season (but moves on to the Jets . . . and who knows what their receiving situation will look like). Campbell had an injury filled rookie season, which led to him being mostly ignored this year (he went roughly 50 picks later this year compared to last year). Sims was the WR15 the last month of the season and did not see any significant playing time until then . . . and that was enough to rank him WR68 (and I took him as WR74). He will begin the year as the WAS WR2, so not sure why no one really wanted him in the Anarchy Leagues. So even though I didn't invest heavily at WR, I think I can get some added production value compared to where these guys were selected.

Tight Ends:
Travis Kelce KCC (All ADP TE1 - 3 | L2 TE2 - 4 | 2019: TE1)
Greg Olsen SEA (All ADP TE25 127 | L2 TE24 - 125 | 2019: TE13)
Devin Asiasi NEP (All ADP TE37 265 | L2 TE35 - 260 | 2019: NA)

Not sure how I ended up with Kelce, but I am not complaining. He outscored Kittle by 136 point last year and 92 points the season before. I would interested to hear from Nittany why he took Kittle before Kelce. Olsen is old, but he ranked TE13 last year on a non-playoff team and is going to what should be a playoff team with a much stronger offense and QB situation. Dissly was the TE7 the first month of the season but is trying to come back from a torn Achilles. He may not be back to full strength this season. Asiasi was a dart throw, but I don't see how is isn't the primary receiving TE in NE. Here were the yearly TE totals with CAM in Carolina:

2011 - 85-1008-9
2012 - 77-951-6
2013 - 74-828-6
2014 - 98-1167-7
2015 - 95-1235-9
2016 - 91-1217-4
2017 - 49-645-2
2018 - 65-676-7

The Panthers migrated more to RB and away from TE those last two seasons with Olsen banged up. Who knows if Asiasi is a legit NFL TE, but Newton and McDaniels should give him a good opportunity to show his stuff. IMO, not a lot of risk taking an NFL starting TE on a team devoid of offensive weapons at pick 265.

Kickers:
Zane Gonzalez ARI (All ADP PK11 - 193 | L2 PK11 196 | 2019: PK8)
Nick Folk NEP (All ADP PK33 - 281 | L2 PK30 - 253 | 2019: PK31)

I am not sure I follow the logic with Gonzalez. He was one of the most accurate kickers last year and performed very well. Yet some places don't even have him ranked as a Top 20 kicker this year. The Cardinals offense should be better than last year . . . doesn't that usually mean more kicking opportunities and more points? Confused by why some people are down on him. To the best of my knowledge, the Patriots have not tried out any other kickers even without having one on their primary roster. I expect Folk will be a last second call up and will be kicking against the Dolphins. Their 5th round draft pick was brutally bad in camp (made only 52% of his kicks) while Folk was north of 90% IIRC. Bill is using the new roster, practice squad, and call up rules to his advantage. Maybe Folk stumbles, maybe the rookie improves, maybe they do bring in someone else . . . but for now I think it will be Folk.

Defense:
Patriots DST (All ADP DEF9 - 190 | L2 DEF8 - 180 | 2019: DEF1)
Raiders DST (All ADP DEF28 - 289) | L2 DEF31 - 285 | 2019: DEF28)

The NE defense certainly is going to be weaker this year . . . the question is by how much. IMO, the secondary will actually be better than last year (but they don't get many tomato can QBs to face like last year). The front 7 has question marks, but they will end up trading some size and experience for speed and youth. Who knows what that will translate to, but I think opponents will still struggle to pass the ball (and instead should run the ball a ton). If nothing else, NE will be worth watching just to see that the end product will look like (compared to what we have been used to for 20 years). The talk around Boston has been are the Pats more likely to be 11-5 or 5-11, as those appeared to be the highs and lows in people's predications for them this year. I can't say that I know much about the Raiders defense and basically they were available when I had to pick. I can't say that I want a defense that has to face the Chiefs twice in a season.

Overall, I think I have a decent squad. Probably will end up with some guys from playoff bound teams. Without too many injuries, I think I should at least be competitive and in the hunt. I've said that before and ended up 1,000 points behind the leader, so what do I know . . .

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On 10/28/2020 at 11:31 AM, Biabreakable said:

So I climbed to the number one spot this week with 4 Vikings on bye.

That didn't last long.

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2 minutes ago, CalBear said:

That didn't last long.

Nope. 

Turns out a lot of my points coming from the Cardinals and WFT who were on bye last week.

You got to take your moments in the sun when you can. I don't think my players have much playoff potential.

Edited by Biabreakable

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On 11/4/2020 at 11:23 AM, CalBear said:

That didn't last long.

And it didn't take long to get it back.

By a margin of 6.66 points now.

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