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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)

A wave of new national surveys shows that Joe Biden maintains a significant if slightly diminished lead over Donald J. Trump, leaving him in a stronger position to oust an incumbent president than any challenger heading into his party’s convention in the modern polling era.

On average, Mr. Biden leads by eight to nine percentage points among likely voters. His advantage is perhaps slightly smaller than it was a month ago, when high-quality live-interview telephone surveys routinely showed him with a double-digit lead. But it is still the largest and most persistent national polling lead that any candidate has held in 24 years, since Bill Clinton maintained a double-digit advantage in 1996.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/upshot/polls-2020-election-convention.html

 
I think the Trump whitelash is a temporary step backward in a more overarching march toward justice and equality.  Trump's support largely lies in older white people and younger uneducated whites. Among everyone else, Trump is largely seen as the unmitigated disaster that he is. Future generations will look back at this time as an aberration because as those older whites who still harbor racial resentment largely die off, they are being replaced by the least racist and most progressive generation of voters in history.  

We will get through this and come out stronger in the long run.  
I hope you're right. We're accumulating a decent amount of scars right now.

 
Time to take a big sip of coffee and see how the most electable ticket in history is doing:

@ppollingnumbers

CNN Poll In 15 battleground states:

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 48%
That TX, GA ,FL and even OH are in that list of battleground states is more telling to the trouble that Trump is in than anything else.

Think about a poll like that and instead of those 4...put in NY, IL, CA and WA?

 
Joe Biden is a racist 
Sure he is.  That’s why Obama picked him to serve as VP, why Biden choose Harris as his VP, why Jim Clyburn endorses him, and why he overwhelmingly is supported by the black community (90%).  

 
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I hear a lot being said about the amount of enthusiasm that favors Trump vs the enthusiasm for Biden. I have voted Republican 11 times out of 11 ( Evan McMullen in 2016) I have never been more enthusiastic about voting and casting a vote against any candidate in any of them as I am for this election.  I am about as giddy about it as a five year old on Christmas Eve. No that is not enthusiasm for Biden but it is enthusiasm none the less.

 
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Recently I read about the lack of high quality state polling.  Most of the quality polling has been national.  Of course, that was a problem in 2016 as well, particularly in those rust belt states.  If Biden maintains this high national lead, it doesn't matter.  However, if the lead narrows, there is reason to be concerned about some of these same states. 

 
Juxtatarot said:
Recently I read about the lack of high quality state polling.  Most of the quality polling has been national.  Of course, that was a problem in 2016 as well, particularly in those rust belt states.  If Biden maintains this high national lead, it doesn't matter.  However, if the lead narrows, there is reason to be concerned about some of these same states. 
Biden better have sharp state polling internally. It seemed like Clinton had a large blind spot in this area in 2016.

 
Model predicting landslide for Trump.

AUSTIN, Texas (KEYE) - A political science professor who boasts an 83% success rate over the last 25 years is predicting another election win--by a landslide--for President Donald Trump in November.

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University's Department of Political Science, is the creator of the "Primary Model," which the university says has correctly predicted five of the last six elections since 1996.

In 2020, Norpoth's model predicts President Trump has a 90% chance of defeating former Vice President Joe Biden and being re-elected.

The model relies on the presidential primary results over polling, and Norpoth points out that Biden's poor showing in the first two primary races puts him at a significant disadvantage to Trump.

 
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I don't know how anyone can read these threads, watch the country,  and think the United States of America isn't dead man walking. 
These threads? I consider the source(s). I look at the country and am glad there is finally someone in office currently who is willing to take politically unpopular positions because it’s for the betterment of the country despite the person himself being a tool. 

 
This is a terrible headline. There's nothing in the article stating that that dude is predicting a landslide.
We must be looking at different articles...the article I linked has the following title "Political scientist predicts 'landslide' win for President Trump in 2020 election"

 
We must be looking at different articles...the article I linked has the following title "Political scientist predicts 'landslide' win for President Trump in 2020 election"
Right. That's what I mean. Headline/title - same thing. I wasn't saying your headline was wrong. I'm saying the one for the article is wrong. Or at least there's no supporting evidence for the headline in the article.

 
Right. That's what I mean. Headline/title - same thing. I wasn't saying your headline was wrong. I'm saying the one for the article is wrong. Or at least there's no supporting evidence for the headline in the article.
gotcha...I don't disagree.

 
We will get through this and come out stronger in the long run.  
I think you should qualify your optimism. We will get through this and come out stronger if structural changes aren't made to the delicate democratic balance we now have between the branches, reflected in actual policy that judges deem constitutional (thank God for Gorsuch and Roberts right now), and via executive appointments, something the President is entirely lacking in.

 
Less than 3 months until we know the outcome...at least I hope the outcome is determined right away with no delays. I believe one party knows they only have a few more days to roll in the pig slop.

 
From the CBS Austin article.

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University's Department of Political Science, is the creator of the "Primary Model," which the university says has correctly predicted five of the last six elections since 1996.

In 2020, Norpoth's model predicts President Trump has a 90% chance of defeating former Vice President Joe Biden and being re-elected.
And this isn't about Trump, but about predicting. And a good point between polls and models.

If Biden wins, does this professor get to say actually, he was not wrong in his prediction as he told us there was a 10% chance Biden wins and if we understood math we'd know he wasn't wrong?

 
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From the CBS Austin article.

And this isn't about Trump, but about predicting. And a good point between polls and models.

If Biden wins, does this professor get to say actually, he was not wrong in his prediction as he told us there was a 10% chance Biden wins and if we understood math we'd know he wasn't wrong?
Sure, I suppose he does.

Although, such a claim would hold more weight if, like Silver, he could point to a large sample size and show that his model was accurate at the rate he claimed prior (e.g. 70% of elections he called as 70% likely actually went that way).

As it is, if the only claim to fame is 5 out of the last 6 POTUS elections, well...  Hasn't pretty much every model and kindergartner called most of those correctly other than 2016?  I mean, I didn't use any models at all, just "my gut", and I correctly called 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, and 1980.  Before that, I was much too young to remember.

 
Sure, I suppose he does.

Although, such a claim would hold more weight if, like Silver, he could point to a large sample size and show that his model was accurate at the rate he claimed prior (e.g. 70% of elections he called as 70% likely actually went that way).

As it is, if the only claim to fame is 5 out of the last 6 POTUS elections, well...  Hasn't pretty much every model and kindergartner called most of those correctly other than 2016?  I mean, I didn't use any models at all, just "my gut", and I correctly called 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, and 1980.  Before that, I was much too young to remember.
Ho do other other things like past history and performance factor in? I thought it was just understanding math? 

 
Ho do other other things like past history and performance factor in? I thought it was just understanding math? 
Polling is about statistics and math. Political modeling is mostly nonsense. There aren't nearly enough data points to make good models, but testing it in 6 elections means nothing. 

 
Ho do other other things like past history and performance factor in? I thought it was just understanding math? 
I think there are two factors in play.

1. With any model, success over time impacts one's credibility.

2. While the "I wasn't wrong" claim can be true regardless if one states "I said it was N% chance of happening", one's credibility in general is affected by #1.

Think of it like fantasy football predictors and the aforementioned DJ Moore / Julio Jones analogy.  If FBG gets one wrong and claims "our model said JJ would outscore DJM 75% of the time, so we weren't wrong", that would be true.  However, if FBG (or competitor) consistently gets the outcomes wrong, or "more wrong than its competitors", a subscriber or potential subscriber might lose faith in future predictions.  The converse is true, of course.  If FBG consistently outperforms its competitors, then subscribers and potential subscribers should gain faith in future predictions.

 
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I think there are two factors in play.

1. With any model, success over time impacts one's credibility.

2. While the "I wasn't wrong" claim can be true regardless if one states "I said it was N% chance of happening", one's credibility in general is affected by #1.

Think of it like fantasy football predictors and the aforementioned DJ Moore / Julio Jones analogy.  If FBG gets one wrong and claims "our model said JJ would outscore DJM 75% of the time, so we weren't wrong", that would be true.  However, if FBG (or competitor) consistently gets the outcomes wrong, or "more wrong than its competitors", a subscriber or potential subscriber might lose faith in future predictions.  The converse is true, of course.  If FBG consistently outperforms its competitors, then subscribers and potential subscribers should gain faith in future predictions.
Thanks. I'm much more interested in the "if you just understood math" part though. Which does not of course factor in the other (non math) components. 

And I don't mean to stay on this. I just find the public perception on this fascinating. 

 
Anyone thinking trump has this wrapped up is in a cult.

Fact: Trump needed Russian help to lose by 3 million votes in 2016, eeked out the EC by 77K votes while Russia was attacking all 50 states voter rolls. (that is completely unprecedented and will not be replicated without help from hostile foreign intel services again) Facts matter.  The majority of those on his 2016 campaign are now convicted felons or indicted.  His campaign manager facilitated information warfare conducted on the American people by passing US voter targeting data directly to Russian intelligence with multiple followups on how best to use this data. Trump's team had between 150-250 contacts with Russian officials and lied to the FBI AND American people about all of them. Facts matter. Trump's own FBI thinks he's a Russian asset and had sufficient evidence to initiate a counterintelligence investigation with Trump's name on it that passed multiple layers of scrutiny w/in the FBI and DOJ and nobody balked, to include Mitch McConnell when the gang of 8 was notified. Trump lied in sworn written testimony to the Mueller team and committed 8-11 felonies by obstructing that investigation into Russian attacks on the United States. Facts matter.  This man is going to be indicted for multiple felonies the moment he loses his temp job and OLC opinions are no longer protecting him. Facts matter. (individual 1)

Anyone saying Trump is a "shoo-in" is only fooling themselves.  He has already been impeached for cheating in the 2020 election for extorting a foreign country for phony investigations into Americans to help his electoral chances, by withholding $391M US tax dollars.  Everyone around him says he did it, his own Chief of Staff said he did it all of the time and to just "get over it". The guy is also already trying to invalidate the 2020 results and has said he won't accept the results if he doesn't win. The man still has not, and WILL NOT condemn the actions of Putin for paying bounties for the scalps of US Servicemen and women in Afghanistan. These are not the actions of an innocent man who thinks he can win a free and fair election.  

The polling is accurate and consistent.  He's down by 9-10 for a reason. He's a complete and total failure who surrounds himself with criminals, wife beaters, white nationalists, etc for a reason. Trump has overseen the deaths of 181,000 Americans and counting due to his botched response/ignorance/disdain for science, threw 55 million onto unemployment and just caused the economy to crater while claiming this pandemic would just magically disappear. The booming economy and jobs market he inherited from Obama / Biden will not save him.  If you believe trump on any topic at this point, just "drink the kool-aid/bleach" already. And maybe throw away that degree from Trump U and stop sending your checks to the Trump Foundation.  They were shut down due to fraud. 

Vote.

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
Anyone thinking trump has this wrapped up is in a cult.

Fact: Trump needed Russian help to lose by 3 million votes in 2016, eeked out the EC by 77K votes while Russia was attacking all 50 states voter rolls. (that is completely unprecedented and will not be replicated without help from hostile foreign intel services again) Facts matter.  The majority of those on his 2016 campaign are now convicted felons or indicted.  His campaign manager facilitated information warfare conducted on the American people by passing US voter targeting data directly to Russian intelligence with multiple followups on how best to use this data. Trump's team had between 150-250 contacts with Russian officials and lied to the FBI AND American people about all of them. Facts matter. Trump's own FBI thinks he's a Russian asset and had sufficient evidence to initiate a counterintelligence investigation with Trump's name on it that passed multiple layers of scrutiny w/in the FBI and DOJ and nobody balked, to include Mitch McConnell when the gang of 8 was notified. Trump lied in sworn written testimony to the Mueller team and committed 8-11 felonies by obstructing that investigation into Russian attacks on the United States. Facts matter.  This man is going to be indicted for multiple felonies the moment he loses his temp job and OLC opinions are no longer protecting him. Facts matter. (individual 1)

Anyone saying Trump is a "shoo-in" is only fooling themselves.  He has already been impeached for cheating in the 2020 election for extorting a foreign country for phony investigations into Americans to help his electoral chances, by withholding $391M US tax dollars.  Everyone around him says he did it, his own Chief of Staff said he did it all of the time and to just "get over it". The guy is also already trying to invalidate the 2020 results and has said he won't accept the results if he doesn't win. The man still has not, and WILL NOT condemn the actions of Putin for paying bounties for the scalps of US Servicemen and women in Afghanistan. These are not the actions of an innocent man who thinks he can win a free and fair election.  

The polling is accurate and consistent.  He's down by 9-10 for a reason. He's a complete and total failure who surrounds himself with criminals, wife beaters, white nationalists, etc for a reason. Trump has overseen the deaths of 181,000 Americans and counting due to his botched response/ignorance/disdain for science, threw 55 million onto unemployment and just caused the economy to crater while claiming this pandemic would just magically disappear. The booming economy and jobs market he inherited from Obama / Biden will not save him.  If you believe trump on any topic at this point, just "drink the kool-aid/bleach" already. And maybe throw away that degree from Trump U and stop sending your checks to the Trump Foundation.  They were shut down due to fraud. 

Vote.
So OMB

got it

 
Rich Conway said:
It's August.  IMO, anyone who thinks either candidate has it "wrapped up" is fooling themselves.
This is certainly true.  Certainly nobody has it wrapped up.  A couple of thoughts I have though:

Of the 4 possible outcomes - Biden blowout, Biden win close, Trump win close, Trump blowout.   Only 3 of them seem like they're in the range of realistic outcomes.  A Trump blowout win does not seem like a realistic possibility to me.

Trump is in much worse shape than he was at the same time in 2016 for several reasons.

1. The polling averages have been significantly higher and more consistent for Biden than they were for Hillary and most importantly there are far fewer undecided voters.  The polling averages mostly had Hillary up around 4-5% but  specific polls were all over the map.   If you search you will find some specific polls that had her up to 9-10 points at times (mostly right after the DNC)  but even in those polls she rarely got to 50%.   Trump made up ground in the last few months by pulling in a large percentage of the undecideds.  For him to make up ground this time he needs to pull a lot of votes away from Biden, which seems pretty unlikely.

2. There's going to be a lot more early voting this year.  That gives Trump a much shorter window to make up ground.

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
Anyone thinking trump has this wrapped up is in a cult.

Fact: Trump needed Russian help to lose by 3 million votes in 2016, eeked out the EC by 77K votes while Russia was attacking all 50 states voter rolls. (that is completely unprecedented and will not be replicated without help from hostile foreign intel services again) Facts matter.  The majority of those on his 2016 campaign are now convicted felons or indicted.  His campaign manager facilitated information warfare conducted on the American people by passing US voter targeting data directly to Russian intelligence with multiple followups on how best to use this data. Trump's team had between 150-250 contacts with Russian officials and lied to the FBI AND American people about all of them. Facts matter. Trump's own FBI thinks he's a Russian asset and had sufficient evidence to initiate a counterintelligence investigation with Trump's name on it that passed multiple layers of scrutiny w/in the FBI and DOJ and nobody balked, to include Mitch McConnell when the gang of 8 was notified. Trump lied in sworn written testimony to the Mueller team and committed 8-11 felonies by obstructing that investigation into Russian attacks on the United States. Facts matter.  This man is going to be indicted for multiple felonies the moment he loses his temp job and OLC opinions are no longer protecting him. Facts matter. (individual 1)

Anyone saying Trump is a "shoo-in" is only fooling themselves.  He has already been impeached for cheating in the 2020 election for extorting a foreign country for phony investigations into Americans to help his electoral chances, by withholding $391M US tax dollars.  Everyone around him says he did it, his own Chief of Staff said he did it all of the time and to just "get over it". The guy is also already trying to invalidate the 2020 results and has said he won't accept the results if he doesn't win. The man still has not, and WILL NOT condemn the actions of Putin for paying bounties for the scalps of US Servicemen and women in Afghanistan. These are not the actions of an innocent man who thinks he can win a free and fair election.  

The polling is accurate and consistent.  He's down by 9-10 for a reason. He's a complete and total failure who surrounds himself with criminals, wife beaters, white nationalists, etc for a reason. Trump has overseen the deaths of 181,000 Americans and counting due to his botched response/ignorance/disdain for science, threw 55 million onto unemployment and just caused the economy to crater while claiming this pandemic would just magically disappear. The booming economy and jobs market he inherited from Obama / Biden will not save him.  If you believe trump on any topic at this point, just "drink the kool-aid/bleach" already. And maybe throw away that degree from Trump U and stop sending your checks to the Trump Foundation.  They were shut down due to fraud. 

Vote.
BEST POST EVER

 
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A Trump blowout win does not seem like a realistic possibility to me.

Trump is in much worse shape than he was at the same time in 2016 for several reasons.

1. The polling averages have been significantly higher and more consistent for Biden than they were for Hillary and most importantly there are far fewer undecided voters.  The polling averages mostly had Hillary up around 4-5% but  specific polls were all over the map.   If you search you will find some specific polls that had her up to 9-10 points at times (mostly right after the DNC)  but even in those polls she rarely got to 50%.   Trump made up ground in the last few months by pulling in a large percentage of the undecideds.  For him to make up ground this time he needs to pull a lot of votes away from Biden, which seems pretty unlikely.
Counterpoint:

- the race is actually much closer in several swing states when compared to 2016. For example, 538 is currently showing Biden with a 72% chance of winning Wisconsin; but at the same time last year, they gave Hillary an 88.9% chance. The race is also closer in Michigan (84% vs 88%), Pennsylvania (74% vs 81%), Florida (65% vs 75%) and lots of other states. I don't know if that's based solely on polling, or if Nate Silver has added more subjectivity to his forecast to account for 2016.

- betting sites are also giving Trump a bigger chance. Electionbettingodds.com has Trump at 41.6%, but at the same point in 2016 he was at 20.2%.

- don't underestimate the power of coded racism. Trump will use BLM protests to scare white suburbanites. (Watch Wisconsin. Trump is -6.5 in the polls right now but I predict that he gains at least 5 points by next week.)

- the "favorability gap" is smaller with Biden. In late August 2016, Clinton had a 17-point lead in terms of favorability; right now, Biden only has a 13-point lead (link).

- Democrats are overestimating Kamala's appeal to African-American voters, just like they overestimated Hillary's appeal to women. And while I don't think Trump will see significant gains with African American voters, I do think that turnout will remain fairly low. African-American turnout averaged 65% for the Obama elections, but dropped to 59.6% in 2016 (link). I doubt Kamala's presence will drive turnout anywhere close to 65%.

- the stock market will continue to rise through Election Day. Whether that's due to manipulation or wishcasting, it doesn't matter. As long as the market doesn't crash, Trump has an edge.

Basically, the race is going to boil down to 2 or 3 swing states. And all it will take to tip the race to Trump is a well-timed October surprise or some good ol' fashioned voter suppression.

 
Rich Conway said:
It's August.  IMO, anyone who thinks either candidate has it "wrapped up" is fooling themselves.
For sure. 

But let's be fair. Biden is the clear favorite right now. 

 
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The most important poll to me will be the one after the first debate...Biden could surprise but I will be shocked if he doesn't scare the hell out of people once he is out of the basement and not in a tightly controlled environment.
I don't think Biden does a debate.  hope I'm wrong.

 
Counterpoint:

- the race is actually much closer in several swing states when compared to 2016. For example, 538 is currently showing Biden with a 72% chance of winning Wisconsin; but at the same time last year, they gave Hillary an 88.9% chance. The race is also closer in Michigan (84% vs 88%), Pennsylvania (74% vs 81%), Florida (65% vs 75%) and lots of other states. I don't know if that's based solely on polling, or if Nate Silver has added more subjectivity to his forecast to account for 2016.

- betting sites are also giving Trump a bigger chance. Electionbettingodds.com has Trump at 41.6%, but at the same point in 2016 he was at 20.2%.

- don't underestimate the power of coded racism. Trump will use BLM protests to scare white suburbanites. (Watch Wisconsin. Trump is -6.5 in the polls right now but I predict that he gains at least 5 points by next week.)

- the "favorability gap" is smaller with Biden. In late August 2016, Clinton had a 17-point lead in terms of favorability; right now, Biden only has a 13-point lead (link).

- Democrats are overestimating Kamala's appeal to African-American voters, just like they overestimated Hillary's appeal to women. And while I don't think Trump will see significant gains with African American voters, I do think that turnout will remain fairly low. African-American turnout averaged 65% for the Obama elections, but dropped to 59.6% in 2016 (link). I doubt Kamala's presence will drive turnout anywhere close to 65%.

- the stock market will continue to rise through Election Day. Whether that's due to manipulation or wishcasting, it doesn't matter. As long as the market doesn't crash, Trump has an edge.

Basically, the race is going to boil down to 2 or 3 swing states. And all it will take to tip the race to Trump is a well-timed October surprise or some good ol' fashioned voter suppression.
I think this is a fair analysis.  

 
Opie said:
No doubt..

President Trump gets reelected by winning 35-40 states.
35 to 40?  If he's in that range, he's winning states like Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon and New Jersey.

 
Trump made up ground in the last few months by pulling in a large percentage of the undecideds.  For him to make up ground this time he needs to pull a lot of votes away from Biden, which seems pretty unlikely.
20% of voters were undecided in August 2016. Only 10% are undecided now

One other factor that isn't being discussed much: at this point in 2016, Gary Johnson was polling at 8%, and even hit 13% in a couple of polls. Jo Jorgensen is only polling at around 4%, which is fairly close to what Johnson ended up getting in the final 2016 vote tally (3.3%). That strongly suggests that there will not be a sudden shift of voters from third-parties-to-Trump in 2020, as there were in 2016.

 

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