Thunderlips
Footballguy
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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
TripItUp
Footballguy
This is coming down to a few key states. B
Based on the Dem's completely mishandling the 2016 campaign, I wouldn't want to bet on them getting it right.
ren hoek
Footballguy
It is possible that Russia hacked the emails and helped Trump by sending them to Wikileaks. I think this is wrong of course- I believe it was a leak, not a hack. Crowdstrike founder Shawn Henry testified they did not have proof that the emails actually ‘left’ the DNC server the way they alleged it did.Rookie_Whisperer said:
But even if they did, no one made the Clinton campaign incriminate themselves by colluding against Bernie Sanders, and working to promote Trump as a serious candidate in the Republican primaries (so they could run against him). That was their own doing. People who support open democracies should support information of this kind regardless of who it helps or hurts.
This was probably an overblown claim by anonymous intelligence officials. DHS official Christopher Krebs testified that much of this was “simple scanning,” like Google crawling a webpage, that it wasn’t accurate to describe it as an “attack.”Rookie_Whisperer said:
They are certainly corrupt individuals. It’s important not to confuse their corruption with bogus conspiracy theories and total distortions about what actually happened in 2016.Rookie_Whisperer said:
You are making a lot of assumptions here. There has been no evidence provided that Kilimnik is affiliated with Russian intelligence. He was actually a US state dept. asset when he worked at the IRI in Kyiv for 10 years. There is no evidence that the polling data, most of which was publicly available, was used in the social media “attacks” which were really just juvenile memes with no evident impact on anything.Rookie_Whisperer said:
The majority of them were unrelated to the election, and published after the election was over. To portray memes such as the Buff Bernie image as “information warfare” is nothing short of ridiculous. A judge actually rebuked Mueller’s suggestion that the IRA clickbait farm was a Russian govt operation at all.
Save for Cohen’s letter to Putin’s secretary (iirc) about making a building in Moscow, I don’t believe there was any contact at all between the Trump campaign and an actual Russian govt official in the runup to the 2016 election.Rookie_Whisperer said:
I suppose Carter Page could have, but he was under surveillance by the FBI and was a government informant against Russia himself.
There are lots of suggestions and heresay otherwise, including the debunked nyt story about the Trump campaign’s involvement with Russian intelligence officials, but nothing in the way of a meaningful connection between Trump and the Russian govt.
This CI investigation will probably be the subject of a lot of scrutiny in the coming months, and I don’t think it’s going to look good for the FBI. If Trump wins re-election, it will almost certainly be due in part to Democrats wasting so much time and energy on a failed conspiracy theory, rather than issues that actually affect working people’s lives.Rookie_Whisperer said:
The OLC opinion didn’t protect him from anything. There was nothing stopping Mueller from bringing indictments against Trump if he saw fit to do that. He could have recommended charges be brought if nothing else. Here is Mueller stating explicitly that they did not make a determination on whether Trump committed a crime- not that they assessed he did and didn’t prosecute because of OLC memo.Rookie_Whisperer said:
One would sure hope so. But it’s hard to argue that is the case when people are still propping up Russiagate and blaming Russia for our problems.Rookie_Whisperer said:
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
Hahaa....and the Russian agent lover / Julian Assange fan (REN hoek) chimes in with more nonsense... you just can’t make this kind of lunacy up. Nothing you just posted is remotely tethered to reality. None of it. This is not a matter of interpretation. Don’t worry, Trump will be gone soon and we can all go back to agreeing on a set of facts again based in reality, not Russian propaganda.
BTW, Hillary is not some black ops super killer leading Seth Rich kill squads and pizza parlor pedophile rings. Oh, and Barack Obama was born in Hawaii, not on the moon, mars, Kenya or wherever trump is telling you today. Pass it on.
BTW, Hillary is not some black ops super killer leading Seth Rich kill squads and pizza parlor pedophile rings. Oh, and Barack Obama was born in Hawaii, not on the moon, mars, Kenya or wherever trump is telling you today. Pass it on.
tuffnutt
Footballguy
I saw this also, but i wonder if that is more of a product on how few people are truly undecided in this race. I would suspect most people are already entrenched in their camps and the traditional bump for either Candidate will be smaller this cycle. or maybe I'm just trying to be optimistic lol.
whoknew
Footballguy
I hope you are right. I reckon we will know more in a week when we see whether Trump gets a bounce.
The Commish
Footballguy
Is this even a thing under these circumstances? We're at a point where (if you believe polling) 90% of the electorate has their mind made up one way or the other. That's the highest ever since they started tracking this stuff. What kind of bounce are we expecting to see at this point? Does it really matter if it goes from 45 to 47 back down to 45 vs staying a cool 45 all the way through?
whoknew
Footballguy
I don't know. But it doesn't appear many people switched their vote either. Not just undecideds.
Like I said, I reckon we will know more in a week.
The Commish
Footballguy
I suspect in 2-3 weeks, the numbers will look similar to what they did before either convention happened. It will be like neither happened. Just a hunch.
I don't know. But it doesn't appear many people switched their vote either. Not just undecideds.
Like I said, I reckon we will know more in a week.
dkp993
Footballguy
As it should be. These are nothing but fear mongering parades. Nothing new was learned or heard from either side.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
Marauder
Footballguy
I think that usually happens even in normal election years. The convention bounces tend to be very short term. What's more important is how it affects campaign donations.
The Commish
Footballguy
Agreed....I thought I heard that the donations from the DNC convention basically erased the huge lead Trump had from the fund raising he started in 2017. Seems reasonable to suggest if Trump doesn't push things back out to where they were, the Biden campaign should consider that a win.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
I wonder if RNC donations will be affected by Project Lincoln and the mass exodus of prominent Republicans who went from supporting Trump to supporting Biden.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
I was assuming it was from polls he had missed. He must be talking about the Chage Research polls. They have consistently been down on Biden. They also have him leading in WI, PA, MI, NC, FL, and AZ; behind nowhere.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Some analysts were not expecting convention bounces because the polling data has been so stable over the recent months.
The Gator
Footballguy
Its also hard to get much of a convention bounce when they are back-to-back.
Give it a couple of weeks and see where we are.
Its a lot like 2016 - probably more than Biden's camp wants to admit. Trump is definitely behind, but he is not behind by so much that small movements in the right states could still swing the election.
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
spodog
Footballguy
Can any of the ace poll watchers here provide a link to that super important poll where 250 households are called on their home landline phone at two in the afternoon, and the only people who respond are unemployed, disenfranchised, and watching daytime talk shows?
That's an important poll, and we should all over-analyze it asap.
According to RealClearPolitics, every single one of more than 30 polls in Wisconsin in the months leading to the 2016 election had Clinton winning the state by margins ranging from 2 to 16 points
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/14/844770/pollsters-got-it-wrong-in-the-2016-election-now-they-want-another-shot/
That's an important poll, and we should all over-analyze it asap.
According to RealClearPolitics, every single one of more than 30 polls in Wisconsin in the months leading to the 2016 election had Clinton winning the state by margins ranging from 2 to 16 points
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/14/844770/pollsters-got-it-wrong-in-the-2016-election-now-they-want-another-shot/
rockaction
Footballguy
Trump is beating his 2016 polling deficit in key swing states. That doesn't bode well for Biden.
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joffer
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Real Clear Politics. Front page, bud. Not happy looking at it, frankly. If you want to verify it, go to the site and look at the box in the upper right. There will be a column there comparing Trump's performance in 2016 to 2020. He's up by +1.1 percent in important battleground states compared to vs. Clinton.
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joffer
Footballguy
thanks. looking at the individual states, PA, WI, MI, FL don’t seem to moving much though. NC driving a lot of that movement as of late
rockaction
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Argh. Unhappy. There was no bounce from the Dem convention and there might be one from the Republican one. That doesn't bode well, either. Right now, Biden's got a case of too many constituencies to please and not enough forthrightness in disavowing certain elements of his party for fear of blacks voting for other candidates or not showing up.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Could part of the problem also be the Dems handling of the riots? That's been getting some press on conservative mediums. I honestly don't know if it's been a factor or not, but there seems to be a logic to it.
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rockaction
Footballguy
It absolutely is. They're seen (or at least are being portrayed) as cozy with certain elements that nobody wants to vote for.
ren hoek
Footballguy
David Sirota @davidsirota
Three things stand out in this new CBS poll:
1. Biden has a solid overall lead
2. Trump has a disturbingly big lead among independents
3. There's basically no such thing as a Biden Republican, which means defeating Trump is all about Dem turnout.
Three things stand out in this new CBS poll:
1. Biden has a solid overall lead
2. Trump has a disturbingly big lead among independents
3. There's basically no such thing as a Biden Republican, which means defeating Trump is all about Dem turnout.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
There were several polls by Ipsos and SurveyMonkey which showed Trump with a lead, but for some reason they were not counted by RCP (those polls were counted by 538, which may be the reason why they were one of the few sites that gave Trump a puncher's chance in Wisconsin).
Anyway, various postmortem examinations have concluded that most of these polls were flawed because they assumed that voting demographics would be similar to 2016. For example, the pollsters may have assumed that African-American turnout would remain at 66%, so they adjusted their polls accordingly. Also, the polls misjudged the seriousness of those who claimed they were voting for Gary Johnson -- giving him a 5.8% share of the polls, when in reality he only got 3.6% of the vote.
Another thing to consider is that even though the Wisconsin polls showed Clinton with an average lead of 6.5%, they also showed that 12.9% of respondents hadn't decided on either Trump OR Clinton. That 12.9% broke heavily in Trump's favor.
At any rate, I've read that most polling companies have adjusted their methodology for 2020, but who knows if it's still as flawed as 2016, or if they've now overcompensated in Trump's favor.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
To me, #2 and #3 are simply another way of saying "a lot of former Republicans are currently embarrassed to call themselves Republicans and now call themselves independents".
Unlike the past election.. the silent majority will not be on President Trump side.
I predict that this election will have the highest turnout of voters. Where President Trump had his base turn out, this election will see the Dem base turn out unlike last time.
I am excited to see that the GOP is pointing to the polls. That way it will keep the Dem base motivated to vote.. Since last time, people thought there was no way President Trump would win.
I predict that this election will have the highest turnout of voters. Where President Trump had his base turn out, this election will see the Dem base turn out unlike last time.
I am excited to see that the GOP is pointing to the polls. That way it will keep the Dem base motivated to vote.. Since last time, people thought there was no way President Trump would win.
rockaction
Footballguy
That would be a potentially erroneous assumption to make based on worldview, but it's a worthwhile speculation. I don't agree because I think people underestimate how older people react to Trump and how the disaffected see him as one of their own. It's crazy, but it's there.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
[scooter]
Footballguy
I tried to do some 2016/2020 comparisons, but the RCP website is full of popups and embedded videos. I can literally hear my cooling fan straining every time I load that site.
So, here's a comparison of battleground states as per 538's calculations:
Wisconsin: Hillary was at 85% on 8/27/2016; Biden is at 68% now
Michigan: Hillary 85.8%, Biden 82%
Pennsylvania: Hillary 80.3%, Biden 70%
Florida: Hillary 72.9%, Biden 62%
New Hampshire: Hillary 74%, Biden 69%
North Carolina: Hillary 64.9%, Biden 47%
Minnesota: Hillary 84.4%, Biden 70%
Maine: Hillary 82.7%, Biden 76%
The only battleground states I found that look better for Biden right now are Arizona and Nevada.
The one silver lining here is that the 2016 polls swung wildly from week to week in various states -- for example, they swapped leads 6 times in Florida -- but so far the 2020 polls have been relatively consistent. Trump has never led in Florida, for example.
rockaction
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Among my circle of "California Republicans" everybody is voting Trump because the progressive agenda/platform during the Democratic primaries scared the hell out of them. I'm sure other Republicans are being swayed by the riots and "defunding" etc. etc., but it's the progressive agenda/platform that scares the hell out of us California Republicans.
So in summary I guess what I'm saying is that it doesn't surprise me at all there aren't many Biden Republicans. I don't know a single Republican voting for Biden.
I hope the recent polling numbers are a reaction to the progressive movement...it may force the Democrats more to the center. From somebody that voted for Bill Clinton twice(and would again).
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The Commish
Footballguy
We should probably look at this in the context of undecideds though, right? In 2016 20-25% hadn't made up their mind with regard to Clinton/Trump. In 2020, we are at 8-10%. For such a large set of people, 1% of that doesn't seem all that significant.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I really didn't do a deep dive as evidenced by the posts that are following mine. I saw it and it was worrisome. Plus the articles and RCP's Sean Trende's Twitter feed were speaking in those generalities, so I was swayed.
The Commish
Footballguy
I generally think it will be closer than people want it to be and honestly, it's going to come down to turnout. That's why we see the assault on voting and why we see the playing of the fear card so aggressively. I mean, we had people here in Florida trying to say that all the ballots were marked so the post office knew who the democrats and republicans were making it easier to screw with the election. Of course, the video was of really old/outdated ballots AND they were for the primaries where they HAVE to know if it's a Dem or GOP ballot
dkp993
Footballguy
This makes no sense to me. Didn’t the Democratic convention feature a ton of prominent Republicans telling you to vote for Biden.
How many Democrats were in the Republican convention doing the same?
rockaction
Footballguy
You can find singular instances anywhere. What you can't do is find an aggregate, apparently. Republicans and Trump voters are very happy with him and give him a wildly positive job approval rating from what I've read. It's why I'm no longer a member of the American right as presently constituted. Not for me.
The Commish
Footballguy
spodog
Footballguy
Is this a serious comment? Of course it is a factor.
Evidence:
2020: 58% Of Voters Support Using Military To Help Police Control Protests, Poll Finds = linky
1968: Even an unlikable turd like Nixon received a huge lift by emphasizing law & order: "The first civil right of every American is to be free from domestic violence " = linky
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