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To add, rake the FEDERAL land that’s burning as well. That is land that the Federal government is responsible for maintaining (raking and whatnot).
Dont forget boat paradesAAABatteries said:
It gets really tough for Trump at that point. On 538’s simulator, Biden’s win probability goes to 98% if you give him PA.
Deep down, I expect that Newt and others recognize that it's now the silent minority ..not majority. A third of all voters have already voted with a higher percentage of young and minority voters. I notice that the above, as stated, does not mention undecideds (of which there are comparatively few). I find it interesting that late in the 2016 campaign, Trump brought down Hillary with the email news. But this time, all the late news relates to Trump and his (and his SIL's) missteps and bad headlines. Covid cases up and the stock market down in this final week should be the nail in the coffin.
He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be approved by congress in and end around of congressional oversight. He has profited directly from government in ways too numerous to count. He has villified a hiuge portion of the country who presumably he should be serving. He refuses to do the legitimate work of the presidency in reading briefings, showing up to work (executive time). He has legitimized certain radical right wing anti government forces like the proud boys and oath keepers. He has nominated judges that are deemed unqualified by the ABA who are then approved by a complicit senate. He has emboldened our enemies and alienated our allies on the national stage. He has appointed department heads that seek to destroy the missions of the very departments they head. He has politicised the actions of otherwise apolitical agencies. By Robert Muellers own words he knew the Russians were working to help him in an American election, he welcomed that help, then worked to cover it up during investigations. He has solicited help from outside governments in seeking political advantage for which he was impeached. He has engaged in a staggering level of nepotism for unqualified relatives at the highest levels. He has waived security clearance checks for an numerous people including Jared Kushner. He withheld important information about the Corona virus at the early critical stages. He has encouraged behavior antithetical to controlling the virus. He has told over 20,000 lies to the American people. And then there's just the all around toxicity.
I think the polls have it correct. They have made adjustments. There are way less independants this time around that could swing for Trump like in the last election. All the historicals point to a big turnout favoring the Dems. And the numbers so far are huge.
With the numbers it has to be more than "shy Trump voters" though....It has to be "shy Trump voters lying and saying they are voting for Biden" and if the stats are to be believed, it would have to be double the number that supposedly did this last time. And, of course, the polls would have to be using the exact same assumptions they did last time.-fish- said:
One of the main differences in 2020 vs. 2016 is Biden is polling 50%+ in: CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, ME1, MI, MN, NE2, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, and WI. He's 49.8 in NV (but has been +/- 0.2 from 50% across the last week). All those added together gets JB to 279 electoral votes. Trump could win every other state and it wouldn't matter.
I am curious about Newt's rationale. Rasmussen has Biden ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and even Ohio, and those guys are bloodhounds when it comes to finding conservative respondents.
Speaking of Newt, he has Trump getting 326 electoral votes, essentially only using results from conservative polls.
I find it comical this administration and it's supporters thought that a story about a "October surprise" involving Rudy and a laptop told to this admin a year ago by the FBI in an effort to forewarn of outside interference, was going to move any needles when it actually showed up.
That sounds like the map Sneegor posted yesterday from McCullough, which was purportedly based on Trump and Biden internal polling.
Newt is going to Newt.....and him being on Hannity; I'm surprised Newt didn't say VA, CO and OR were in play to give Trump potentially north of 350+. That Newt and Hannity didn't have MAGA pom-poms and megaphones was kind of surprising. Newt also said Romney was going north of 300 EVS in 2012,
That's what I would expect them to say but to be honest, I have no way or knowing they are right, wrong or just making it up. I do trust that Silver and most of these polls kind of to mostly know what they are doing - I expect him to be "wrong" but probably about the same as last time. The problem for Trump, as I see it, is that he's so far behind in some key states that they will just have to be very wrong for him to pull it out.
Me too. Maybe it’s just being a ‘homer’ but I feel more confident about Arizona than any of the other battleground states.
Think it is that polling error was in Midwest so feel burned by it. Honestly, AZ has been red for so long (until very recently) maybe I am being optimistic but I think Biden wins there.
The last time anyone had Biden +5 in Ohio was in September. The last time anywhere had Biden polling ahead was the very beginning of October. Biden +5 has to be considered an outlier.
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially with Trump ahead in Iowa. I guess it's good that Quinnipiac isn't afraid to publish outliers. Overall, there's been a lack of quality polling in Ohio:
Me too but if he wins Ohio, he wouldn’t need to win FL, AZ or PA. It would a huge get but highly unlikely. I only see it happening in a landslide situation.
Iowa is about as much as a toss up as there can be. 538 has Biden +0.4. RCP has Biden +1. Trump probably wins both Iowa and Ohio (unless there is bigger blue wave then the polls reflect).
the Top Battleground difference of 2.0 is more Hillary's late decline in 2016. I guess I didn't realize how bad it got for her in those 6 states in the final 2 weeks.
If your implication is that Trump wins at 46%, he has not hit that number in the entirety of his 4-year term. Rasmussen just came out with Trump with an 52% approval rating, which is clearly inflated and skewing his overall approval numbers.
Yep. That's why I'm saying, if he somehow gets to 46% the next few days (not that it's likely, though he did just gain 2 points in 8 days), I think we'll have President Trump for another 4 years. The 2 point move in 8 days is disturbing in its own right.
