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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread

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5 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

The last time anyone had Biden +5 in Ohio was in September. The last time anywhere had Biden polling ahead was the very beginning of October. Biden +5 has to be considered an outlier.

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8 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially with Trump ahead in Iowa. I guess it's good that Quinnipiac isn't afraid to publish outliers. Overall, there's been a lack of quality polling in Ohio:

NYT/Siena: Biden +1, Oct. 2-6
Quinnipiac: Biden +1, Oct 8-12
Fox News: Trump +3, Oct 17-20
Quinnipiac: Biden +5, Oct 23-27

That's about it.

Edited by caustic

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2 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

Me too but if he wins Ohio, he wouldn’t need to win FL, AZ or PA. It would a huge get but highly unlikely. I only see it happening in a landslide situation.

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That one poll moved 538's Ohio forecast from 59-41 Trump to 50-50. Seems sketchy. I guess that's another side effect of the sparsity of quality polling in Ohio. Hopefully we get more quality polls for Ohio in the next few days.

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5 minutes ago, caustic said:

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially with Trump ahead in Iowa. I guess it's good that Quinnipiac isn't afraid to publish outliers. Overall, there's been a lack of quality polling in Ohio:

NYT/Siena: Biden +1, Oct. 2-6
Quinnipiac: Biden +1, Oct 8-12
Fox News: Trump +3, Oct 17-20
Quinnipiac: Biden +5, Oct 23-27

That's about it.

Iowa is about as much as a toss up as there can be. 538 has Biden +0.4. RCP has Biden +1. Trump probably wins both Iowa and Ohio (unless there is bigger blue wave then the polls reflect).

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From RealClear Politics - differences between 16 and 20.  Biden definately looks like he is in a better position. 

 

2020 vs. 2016                 2020          2016         Spread

Top Battlegrounds         D +3.6       D +1.6        Biden +2.0

RCP National Average   D +7.7      D +2.0         Biden +5.7

Favorability Ratings       D +19.4    D +4.5        Biden +14.9

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Or maaaaybe we just have some serious late break to Biden going on. 

 

 

the Top Battleground difference of 2.0 is more Hillary's late decline in 2016.  I guess I didn't realize how bad it got for her in those 6 states in the final 2 weeks.

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2 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

In other news, Trump's 538 aggregate approval rating among likely voters is 44.4% - up 2 full points from 8 days ago. If it goes up another point and a half prior to election day, I'll be expecting a Trump 2nd term.

If your implication is that Trump wins at 46%, he has not hit that number in the entirety of his 4-year term. Rasmussen just came out with Trump with an 52% approval rating, which is clearly inflated and skewing his overall approval numbers.

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

If your implication is that Trump wins at 46%, he has not hit that number in the entirety of his 4-year term. Rasmussen just came out with Trump with an 52% approval rating, which is clearly inflated and skewing his overall approval numbers.

Yep. That's why I'm saying, if he somehow gets to 46% the next few days (not that it's likely, though he did just gain 2 points in 8 days), I think we'll have President Trump for another 4 years. The 2 point move in 8 days is disturbing in its own right.

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Hawaii has become the first state to eclipse its total 2016 turnout. :thumbup: Texas is right on their heels.

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1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

Yep. That's why I'm saying, if he somehow gets to 46% the next few days (not that it's likely, though he did just gain 2 points in 8 days), I think we'll have President Trump for another 4 years. The 2 point move in 8 days is disturbing in its own right.

Rasmussen had two polls with Trump at 52% in 3 days. That's what swung the overall rating. I went back 80 other poll results and no place had Trump over 50% in the past 4 weeks. We have reached the point where GOP leaning polls with outlier numbers are coming in much more frequently in an effort to make things seem closer than they really are.

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1 minute ago, Anarchy99 said:

Rasmussen had two polls with Trump at 52% in 3 days. That's what swung the overall rating. I went back 80 other poll results and no place had Trump over 50% in the past 4 weeks. We have reached the point where GOP leaning polls with outlier numbers are coming in much more frequently in an effort to make things seem closer than they really are.

Partisan polls are always released with a reason.  Sure feels to me like the drive behind all the releases right now is to energy the base that he can win but they need to get out an vote.  I don't see the same stream of Democratic released partisan polls.  

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RCP seems to have a slightly different perspective on favorability. They have Biden +19.4 over Trump, which is the biggest spread there's been in the past year (with 5 days left until the election).

ETA: I did find the favorability ratings for Trump. RCP has him at 41.6 (vs. 44.4 at 538).

Edited by Anarchy99

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26 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Or maaaaybe we just have some serious late break to Biden going on.

I mean, I've asked for weeks how somebody could be undecided but IF I were, I think 80k COVID cases a day with the POTUS holding rallies and not pushing masks would be kind of a deal breaker for me.  Especially if I was elderly.

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6 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I mean, I've asked for weeks how somebody could be undecided but IF I were, I think 80k COVID cases a day with the POTUS holding rallies and not pushing masks would be kind of a deal breaker for me.  Especially if I was elderly.

I can't say I know anyone that is undecided, but there have to be some of them out there. Maybe they were waiting to hear about court packing, corruption scandals, or the latest GDP report. There are probably people who care more about the market and their 401K's than than COVID (but they probably would not be undecided).

More importantly, I don't know anyone on either side at this point that would switch who they are voting for no matter what. It's not like the candidates have some similar positions on things . . . they are so far apart that it's pretty much you align more with one side or the other. Trump gobbled up a lot of the leftovers in the week or two before the election in 2016. That seems a lot less likely this go round because there aren't as many of those folks to latch on to.

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I'd like to thank some of the posters out there for reminding me to update my ignore list ahead of Election Night.  Thank you and godspeed!

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10 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I'd like to thank some of the posters out there for reminding me to update my ignore list ahead of Election Night.  Thank you and godspeed!

Either way it goes, this place will be a #### show next week.

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16 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I'd like to thank some of the posters out there for reminding me to update my ignore list ahead of Election Night.  Thank you and godspeed!

I'm afraid to click on that link

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I'm willing to bet any amount of money that Biden takes NY. Just let me know.

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2 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

I'm willing to bet any amount of money that Biden takes NY. Just let me know.

I would be thrilled to bet Biden wins NY by more than Trump wins Alabama 

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1 minute ago, Sneegor said:

I am very confident that Trump wins Arizona.

Why?  What are you basing that on?

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5 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Why?  What are you basing that on?

First hand experience in Arizona.  People I speak to locally, yard signs, Astronauts coming out against Mark Kelly in local paper.

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On 10/19/2020 at 1:33 PM, General Malaise said:

Ripping them for what exactly?  Weren't they both wrong in 2016?

OK, it took 10 days but here's an example of Nate Silver ripping the betting markets.  (Although I had to Google what the Dunning-Kruger effect is.)

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

54m

Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect.

 

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12 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

OK, it took 10 days but here's an example of Nate Silver ripping the betting markets.  (Although I had to Google what the Dunning-Kruger effect is.)

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

54m

Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect.

 

That's essentially what I've been saying for a few days around here to folks on both sides.  No offense to anyone here, but I don't think any of us has any clue what we are truly talking about.

ETA - and just to be clear  - 1. I include myself in that list of folks not really having a clue and 2. It's not directed at predictions but rather the folks who are throwing around guarantees and certainty. 

Edited by AAABatteries
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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I can't say I know anyone that is undecided, but there have to be some of them out there. Maybe they were waiting to hear about court packing, corruption scandals, or the latest GDP report. There are probably people who care more about the market and their 401K's than than COVID (but they probably would not be undecided).

More importantly, I don't know anyone on either side at this point that would switch who they are voting for no matter what. It's not like the candidates have some similar positions on things . . . they are so far apart that it's pretty much you align more with one side or the other. Trump gobbled up a lot of the leftovers in the week or two before the election in 2016. That seems a lot less likely this go round because there aren't as many of those folks to latch on to.

I actually know a couple of people that at least say they are undecided.  Didn't vote for either Clinton or Trump, don't particularly care for Trump but feel he gets unfairly vilified and are not convinced Biden's necessarily up for the job.  On the other hand, going by conversations I had in 2016, I seem to know an inordinate amount of people who voted 3rd party or wrote in.  So either they're not representative or they're not being truthful.  

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1 minute ago, Dr_Zaius said:

I actually know a couple of people that at least say they are undecided.  Didn't vote for either Clinton or Trump, don't particularly care for Trump but feel he gets unfairly vilified and are not convinced Biden's necessarily up for the job.  On the other hand, going by conversations I had in 2016, I seem to know an inordinate amount of people who voted 3rd party or wrote in.  So either they're not representative or they're not being truthful.  

As I mentioned in several threads, I know several people that did not vote at all last time and will vote for Biden. I know multiple people that voted Trump last time that are voting Biden this time. I have not come across anyone that didn't vote last time that will vote for Trump this time, nor do I know anyone that voted for Hillary that is siding with Trump. But the people I know that love Trump are very vocal and relish their time and energy supporting him. It's almost like a cult following. No one I know is anywhere near as fixated on supporting Biden . . . but their votes are 100% locks for Biden (even if they are quiet about it), just like the pro-Trump crowd is 100% voting for Trump. I don't know a single person in the undecided category. Everyone I know had their minds made up ages ago.

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42 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

First hand experience in Arizona.  People I speak to locally, yard signs, Astronauts coming out against Mark Kelly in local paper.

There’s not a single yard sign for either candidate in my subdivision. Guess we’re all sitting this year out. No doubt Trump has the enthusiasm advantage of you’re looking just at Biden signs or comparing rally sizes. But reality is that only a small percentage of the voting public put out signs, wear candidate clothing, go to rallies or otherwise advertise who they are voting for. 

With that being said, your confidence means the same as mine.

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13 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

There’s not a single yard sign for either candidate in my subdivision. Guess we’re all sitting this year out. No doubt Trump has the enthusiasm advantage of you’re looking just at Biden signs or comparing rally sizes. But reality is that only a small percentage of the voting public put out signs, wear candidate clothing, go to rallies or otherwise advertise who they are voting for. 

With that being said, your confidence means the same as mine.

I would guess 80% of the clients I deal with in Arizona are pro-Trump.  With that said, it wouldn't shock me for Biden to win Arizona but if I had to bet my money would be on Trump.  McSally on the other hand may be in trouble.

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25 minutes ago, Sneegor said:

I would guess 80% of the clients I deal with in Arizona are pro-Trump.  With that said, it wouldn't shock me for Biden to win Arizona but if I had to bet my money would be on Trump.  McSally on the other hand may be in trouble.

I get it, I’m in a red area too, not 80% but probably 60%. I sat outside where they had the parking for the rally yesterday. It was a surreal scene, no doubt. I just feel that the polling, Senate races and shift in elderly vote have me thinking Biden has a good chance here.

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1 hour ago, Biff84 said:

I get it, I’m in a red area too, not 80% but probably 60%. I sat outside where they had the parking for the rally yesterday. It was a surreal scene, no doubt. I just feel that the polling, Senate races and shift in elderly vote have me thinking Biden has a good chance here.

I don't believe there is a shift in elderly vote.  I do think the demographics are changing with all the people moving to Arizona though.

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7 hours ago, Gr00vus said:

We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.

Biden +5 ain't right, but he has a shot here. I think urban county turnout will one-up 08 and 12. Skeptical it's enough to counter the blood red that's become our rural counties though. 

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9 hours ago, Biff84 said:

There’s not a single yard sign for either candidate in my subdivision. Guess we’re all sitting this year out. No doubt Trump has the enthusiasm advantage of you’re looking just at Biden signs or comparing rally sizes. But reality is that only a small percentage of the voting public put out signs, wear candidate clothing, go to rallies or otherwise advertise who they are voting for. 

With that being said, your confidence means the same as mine.

Explain Republicans getting smoked by grass roots fundraising. I’d think enthusiasm would translate to funding. 

Edited by Jackstraw

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This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

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1 hour ago, onionsack said:

Anyone else have this impression?

Not really.

Just seems to me that trump supporters are much more likely to attend large gatherings where people won't be socially distancing or wearing masks during a global pandemic, or feverishly smashing the "like" button on social media(facebook in particular), or put up lawn signs, etc. The Dems are more likely to support their candidate in different ways imo.

You say that your contacts are 80% Dem but nearly a hundred have liked trump's FB page so I am guessing you either are less familiar with the political leanings of 500+ contacts or your social circle is less liberal than you think they are.

As someone in a small community that probably is closer to 80% liberal I can tell you that none of the Hillary voters are voting for trump, at least publicly. I only really know non-committal (which I assume means voting for trump but can't/won't try to defend anything he does) rather than true trump "supporters".

Why would someone that voted for Hillary in your opinion not vote for Biden? We're they just voting for the first woman president in 2016 but don't care about the first woman vice president in 2020? Or were there specific accomplishments of the current white house that turned them pro-trump? Seems to me all the attacks against Biden are recycled from 2016. Almost copied and pasted for that matter.

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3 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

Not in my circle. I don’t know anyone who voted for Hillary and is now voting for Trump. I do know people who voted for Trump in 2016 who are either not voting for either major party candidate this time or who are casting a vote for Biden. 

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3 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

I see nothing but Trump signs and posters everywhere when I drive to work through rural Central PA.

 

The Trump drawing crowds and Biden not drawing crowds....not sure where I see that?

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4 hours ago, onionsack said:

Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people

McGovern drew huge crowds, too.

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4 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

No. I don’t personally know any Trump voters, at least who admit it openly. But it seems like many Trump supporters online are fond of his policies, but don’t love his personality. Conversely, many people think Biden is a likable guy, but are kinda lukewarm to his platform.

I don’t get too involved with social media though.

In contrast to the guy whose social circle is military, police and firefighters, most people I know work in healthcare. I’d be surprised if many people who regularly care for covid patients are voting for Trump.

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18 hours ago, tuffnutt said:

No way Biden wins Ohio.

If, if, IF Ohio goes blue ... that really locks it in for Biden.

...

Looking at potential results like this right now:

WI, MI, AZ, FL - comfortable Biden wins

IA, NC, PA - tight Biden wins

GA - nail biter in which Trump barely edges out Biden

TX - tight Trump win

OH - comfortable Trump win

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5 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Explain Republicans getting smoked by grass roots fundraising. I’d think enthusiasm would translate to funding. 

Simple - it’s anti-Trump money. There is strong enthusiasm there but it doesn’t translate into the metrics that Trump supporters use like rally attendance and yard signs. There’s pro-Biden enthusiasm and anti-Trump enthusiasm. Both will show up to vote for Biden this year.

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go. The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive.

7:55 AM · Oct 30, 2020

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21 minutes ago, caustic said:

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Texas just surpassed its 2016 total votes cast w/ one day of early voting & Election Day left to go. The state is reporting 9,009,850 votes already cast, vs. the all-time record of 8,969,226 in 2016. This is massive.

7:55 AM · Oct 30, 2020

I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?

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5 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?

Im the same... I feel like the huge voter turnout so far is a net positive for Democrats, but I have zero faith in  myself being correct in that assumption.

Edited by tuffnutt
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4 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?

We don't know for sure but generally high turnout has helped Democrats in the past.

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12 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?

I don't think anyone knows.  

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