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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (2 Viewers)

Almost nobody complaining about polls even knows what a representative sample is or how data gets weighed. They just say things like “well nobody called me and asked” and then fart into their couch. 
I have a friend who is very successful in his line of work. He's an expert in his field. I enjoy picking his brain about his industry. He has talked about how crazy it is that people who don't have training and experience in his field regularly express their opinions about this field. He's hired to do work, but then they want to tell him how to do the work despite not having the expertise. He makes great points there that I agree with. Yet, he continually comments about things like polls, law enforcement, and even epidemiology; all of which he has no expertise.

In my field, people need to trust the experts. In everyone else's field, I'm totally qualified to have a strong opinion.

 
I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?
I'm still not convinced Texas turns blue, but my opinion on this specific result is a combo of the new world of covid requiring early voting and the Democrats in the state ensuring they vote against Trump which will make it closer than the GOP ever thought possible.

 
Odds to win Battleground States

AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI

BIDEN

Biden 10 Lose All 10 States+1100

Biden To Win Exactly 3 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 6 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 9 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 1 States+1200

Biden To Win Exactly 4 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 7 States+550

Biden To Win All 10 States+600

Biden To Win Exactly 2 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Biden To Win Exactly 8 States+450

TRUMP

Trump 10 Lose All 10 States+600

Trump To Win Exactly 3 States+550

Trump To Win Exactly 6 States+900

Trump To Win Exactly 9 States+1200

Trump To Win Exactly 1 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 4 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 7 States+750

Trump To Win All 10 States+1100

Trump To Win Exactly 2 States+450

Trump To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Trump To Win Exactly 8 States+900

 
Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.

 
Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.
This is helpful: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/. NC and FL are the states I am watching because they both should have a good portion of the vote counted by midnight. I think GA too. 

 
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Odds to win Battleground States

AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI

BIDEN

Biden 10 Lose All 10 States+1100

Biden To Win Exactly 3 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 6 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 9 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 1 States+1200

Biden To Win Exactly 4 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 7 States+550

Biden To Win All 10 States+600

Biden To Win Exactly 2 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Biden To Win Exactly 8 States+450

TRUMP

Trump 10 Lose All 10 States+600

Trump To Win Exactly 3 States+550

Trump To Win Exactly 6 States+900

Trump To Win Exactly 9 States+1200

Trump To Win Exactly 1 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 4 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 7 States+750

Trump To Win All 10 States+1100

Trump To Win Exactly 2 States+450

Trump To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Trump To Win Exactly 8 States+900
I would take Trump to win 7 states at +750.

 
Battleground States Odds By State

Arizona

Biden -130   Trump Even

Florida

Trump -160   Biden +120

Georgia

Trump -160   Biden +120

Iowa

Trump -170   Biden +130

Michigan

Biden -300   Trump +220

Minnesota

Biden -360   Trump +250

North Carolina

Biden -115   Trump -115

Ohio

Trump -190   Biden +210  

Michigan

Biden -300   Trump +220

Wisconsin

Biden -320   Trump +230

 
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Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.
I think Texas should report pretty quickly as well but I put that one in Trump column so not sure we learn much from it.  

 
Odds to win Battleground States

AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI
Accurate odds IMHO. Biden getting 8 of these has the best shot. Ohio looks firm for Trump. Georgia looks 50-50, but the apparatus in that state shaves a few points off the Democratic count.

The rest should go to Biden, with IA and NC the least firm. How far Florida moves blue will surprise people, I think.

 
Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.
AZ should have 80% or so of the results ready to report at 8 local time. From someone who knows:

“Polls close at 7. Once the last voter leaves a location the memory card is pulled and driven downtown to elections. If the last voter is gone at 7:05 they can get downtown faster. If there is a line obviously they have to wait and the results of that location will take longer to tally.
At 8:00 the votes cast early will be released. (this is the 80%I mentioned above)

There will be a down period after that.  I'd check again about 9ish. Votes in person on election day will be counted and posted as they are received downtown. Throughout the night they will post little by little.

"Late earlys" as they are called, which is people dropping off a ballot they received by mail, will be counted starting Wednesday.  The projection is at least a couple hundred thousand drop offs on election day alone. That does not include Sunday or Monday. So we will likely have a few hundred thousand votes to count after election day. Which means, we probably won't know who won a lot of the local elections until the weekend.”

 
Thanks! Going through that makes me optimistic that we'll know on election night unless everything hinges on PA.
PA was nip-tuck in 2016 and was still called well before midnight. Biden will crack a little daylight there and make the result known a little earlier.

EDIT: Forgot to account for the main-in counting in PA. Good info by Juxtatrot and Mystery Achiever below.

 
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PA was nip-tuck in 2016 and was still called well before midnight. Biden will crack a little daylight there and make the result known a little earlier.
From the 538 link:

Timing of results

It’ll be slow going. Although around half of Pennsylvanians are expected to vote absentee, those ballots can’t start being processed until 7 a.m. on Nov. 3. Simply put, that’s not enough time for many counties to count them all before the day is over. (For example, Bucks County plans to count ballots 24 hours a day and still doesn’t expect to be done until the end of the week.) Some places aren’t even going to try; Cumberland and Erie counties, for instance, say they won’t count absentee ballots until they’re done with Election Day votes, which could be as late as Wednesday morning. And even counties that manage to count all the ballots in their possession on election night will have to wait until Nov. 6 — the deadline for most mail ballots to arrive — to consider their results complete. Overall, election officials estimate that “the overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by Friday. That said, don’t rule out an even longer wait. During the June primary, about half of counties were still counting a week after the election. No matter what, we’ll definitely know the outcome by Nov. 23 — the deadline for counties to stop counting.

 
PA was nip-tuck in 2016 and was still called well before midnight. Biden will crack a little daylight there and make the result known a little earlier.
1) PA didn't have no-excuse mail in voting in 2016.
2) They can't touch any of the mail in ballots for processing (2 mill already returned)  before 7 am Nov 3
3) As it stands now, they're allowed to receive ballots (postmarked by Nov 3) til 5pm Nov 6. 

 
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1) PA didn't have no-excuse mail in voting in 2016.
2) They can't touch any of the mail in ballots for processing (2 mill already returned)  before 7 am Nov 3
3) As it stands now, they're allowed to receive ballots (postmarked by Nov 3) til 5pm Nov 6. Though there may not be enough stragglers to be meaningful.
PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

Pennsylvania Says It Will Segregate Late-Arriving Mail Ballots

Pennsylvania officials said Wednesday that late-arriving mail ballots will be kept separate, taking a step that could head off a Republican appeal against mail-in voting at the U.S. Supreme Court.

Republicans are asking the Supreme Court to block a three-day extension ordered by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court for ballots to arrive. An evenly divided U.S. Supreme Court refused to take that step last week, but the court could reverse course now that Justice Amy Coney Barrett is in place to break the tie.

The Pennsylvania Department of State said all mail-in and absentee ballots delivered by the U.S. Postal Service and received by counties after 8 p.m. on Election Day through 5 p.m. on Nov. 6 can’t be processed and must be be stored separately from other ballots “until further direction is received.”

Separating the ballots could reduce the need for the high court to take up the GOP appeal and rule before the election. It leaves open the possibility the court could invalidate the late-arriving ballots in any post-election legal fight.

The Trump campaign and Republican Party have brought suits in several states to curb mail-in voting, which the president calls rife with fraud, though there is no evidence that is the case. 
This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.

 
PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.
I think your quote is old (link goes to diff article). GOP already went back a 2nd time, Barrett didn't participate, they ruled 5-3 to not do anything pre-election. However, those three justices may want to explore the point about the ability of the court to make the determination over the legislature. Hence the ballot segregation. I was disappointed they went for the extesion in the 1st place, but here we are. At least the state is being vocal about asking people to drop off ballots at this point and not mail.

 
I think your quote is old (link goes to diff article). GOP already went back a 2nd time, Barrett didn't participate, they ruled 5-3 to not do anything pre-election. However, those three justices may want to explore the point about the ability of the court to make the determination over the legislature. Hence the ballot segregation. I was disappointed they went for the extesion in the 1st place, but here we are. At least the state is being vocal about asking people to drop off ballots at this point and not mail.
The stuff on the PA situation is a lot lower down in the article (but it's still there). I don't want to be around if the votes set aside in PA determine the state and it goes back to the SCOTUS and they determine who wins the entire election.

 
For sure, let's hope it doesn't come to that. And, thx, I see the article, but it doesn't reflect the results of the 2nd GOP try. I doubt there will be that many votes from the three extra days, though it is of course possible.And could definitely hold things up. You've also got NC with 9 days post-election to count ballots.

 
PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.
so dumb

 
PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.
so dumb
Translation: if the race in PA is close and it looks like Biden will need the late-arriving ballots to win, then the Supreme Court will suddenly intervene and declare that those ballots are voided.

On the other hand, if Biden has a comfortable lead, then the Supreme Court will magically decide that their original ruling was just fine.

This is the best of both worlds for Trump. Not only does he get to keep a veto in his pocket, but he also benefits from the state of Pennsylvania telling Democrats to go ahead and wait until Election Day to mail their ballots.

 
On the other hand, if Biden has a comfortable lead, then the Supreme Court will magically decide that their original ruling was just fine.
There is a good chance it gets revisited regardless.
Justice Alito: "It would be highly desirable to issue a ruling on the constitutionality of the State Supreme Court's decision before the election. That question has national importance, and there is a strong likelihood that the State Supreme Court decision violates the Federal Constitution," he wrote. "The provisions of the Federal Constitution conferring on state legislatures, not state courts, the authority to make rules governing federal elections would be meaningless if a state court could override the rules adopted by the legislature simply by claiming that a state constitutional provision gave the courts the authority to make whatever rules it thought appropriate for the conduct of a fair election.''there is simply not enough time at this late date to decide the question before the election. Although the Court denies the motion to expedite, the petition for certiorari remains before us, and if it is granted, the case can then be decided under a shortened schedule,"

 
So they're going to let people vote under one set of deadlines and then change them after the fact? That seems less justicey than just truncating the deadline now ahead of the election so that people would know not to mail in. I get that he doesn't think they have enough time to figure it out now, but I don't see how you can reserve the possibility of changing the deadline after the fact in that case.

 
Thought this was interesting:

"To date, Republicans have turned out 59 percent of their voters in Miami-Dade and Democrats have turned out 53 percent, a 6-point margin. That’s twice the margin Republicans had at this point in 2016." Politico.
Strange nobody commented on this post, seems like a disaster for Democrats. Trailing Hillary in voter turnout? Wow.
 

MIAMI — Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.

No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

 
For sure, let's hope it doesn't come to that. And, thx, I see the article, but it doesn't reflect the results of the 2nd GOP try. I doubt there will be that many votes from the three extra days, though it is of course possible.And could definitely hold things up. You've also got NC with 9 days post-election to count ballots.
Have you checked what year it is?

 
So they're going to let people vote under one set of deadlines and then change them after the fact? That seems less justicey than just truncating the deadline now ahead of the election so that people would know not to mail in. I get that he doesn't think they have enough time to figure it out now, but I don't see how you can reserve the possibility of changing the deadline after the fact in that case.
Maybe the theory is it is better to get it right most of the time than none of the time. :shrug:

Have you checked what year it is?
 A girl can hope. :shrug:

 
Strange nobody commented on this post, seems like a disaster for Democrats. Trailing Hillary in voter turnout? Wow.
 
Doing the math, Hillary won Dade with 64.5 percent of the vote, or just shy of 2 out of every 3 voters. Now, breaking this down to 100 voters(because math is hard, I taught it for 2 years, I know), Biden is currently pulling in just over 34 voters, compared to 64 from 2016. Trump is pulling in about 21 voters, down from the 35 he got in 2016. That's still a larger number going to Biden.

 
Biden loses the Iowa student straw poll to President Trump. Hillary lost in 2016 and has been right the last several cycles.
 

DES MOINES, Iowa (KTIV) -- Over the course of this week, tens of thousands of Iowa students cast their ballots in Secretary of State’s Paul Pate’s Iowa Youth Straw Poll. 

They voted for their preferred candidates in the U.S. Presidential race, along with Iowa’s U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. More than 225 schools and 31,000 students participated.  

Donald Trump won the presidential race 55%-32% over Joe Biden. Kayne West is in third at 9%.

Joni Ernst defeated Theresa Greenfield in the U.S. Senate race, 53%-38%.

Some Youth Straw Poll participants will be eligible to participate in next week’s general election.

“This is a fun, hands-on learning experience that hopefully will create a lifelong interest in civics and elections for these students,” said Secretary Pate. “My thanks to everyone who participated and the teachers and school leaders across the state for organizing this event.”

Iowa’s four U.S. Congressional races were also polled, with Republicans leading in all four districts. 

Republican Ashley Hinson is ahead of Abby Finkenauer 54%-46% in the First District. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Rita Hart 53%-47% in the Second District. David Young holds a narrow lead over Democrat Cindy Axne, 48%-46% in Iowa’s Third District. 

And in Iowa's 4th District, which represents northwest Iowa, Randy Feenstra is leading J.D. Scholten 67%-32%.

The 2016 Iowa Youth Straw Poll showed Donald Trump defeating Hillary Clinton by 10 points and reflected the winner of actual election results in every Iowa congressional race except one. The results are unscientific.

The Iowa Youth Straw Poll is open to students of every grade level and youth civic organizations. Vote totals are available here.
https://ktiv.com/2020/10/28/trump-ernst-win-iowa-youth-straw-poll/

 
Doing the math, Hillary won Dade with 64.5 percent of the vote, or just shy of 2 out of every 3 voters. Now, breaking this down to 100 voters(because math is hard, I taught it for 2 years, I know), Biden is currently pulling in just over 34 voters, compared to 64 from 2016. Trump is pulling in about 21 voters, down from the 35 he got in 2016. That's still a larger number going to Biden.
Biden HAS TO trounce Trump in Miami-Dade.  Hillary won Miami-Dade by almost 300K votes and still lost the state by over 100K votes.  If early voting is indicating that Trump is doing better in a county like Miami-Dade, I don't think Biden will fare well in Florida.  Biden has the same issue in PA.  He HAS TO trounce Trump in Philadelphia.  You can't just win there, you have to win by a lot. 

EDIT: In your math (I'll trust it's correct) in 2016 Trump was losing 29 votes per 100.  Now he's losing 14 votes per 100.  That's a huge, huge win for Trump.

 
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FWIW this is Wasserman’s take on FL early turnout. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322286439921524742?s=20

A few points: 1) Black & Latino turnout wasn't particularly great in '16, and even a modest increase vs. '16 would boost Biden. 2) Polling has told us all along that Black/Latino Dems are more skeptical of VBM than white Dems.

In other words, we've known all along that Biden's most promising path to 270 isn't running up a huge turnout advantage among non-whites so much as winning a higher *share* of whites. The biggest obstacle to 270 for Trump remains defections of white women & seniors.
 
Biden HAS TO trounce Trump in Miami-Dade.  Hillary won Miami-Dade by almost 300K votes and still lost the state by over 100K votes.  If early voting is indicating that Trump is doing better in a county like Miami-Dade, I don't think Biden will fare well in Florida.  Biden has the same issue in PA.  He HAS TO trounce Trump in Philadelphia.  You can't just win there, you have to win by a lot. 

EDIT: In your math (I'll trust it's correct) in 2016 Trump was losing 29 votes per 100.  Now he's losing 14 votes per 100.  That's a huge, huge win for Trump.
Biden has picked up monumental amounts of the white female vote. Stop pretending every other demo from 2016 is staying the same. It’s not. 

 

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