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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread

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6 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

We don't know for sure but generally high turnout has helped Democrats in the past.

Also typically works against incumbents. 

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5 hours ago, onionsack said:

This is the strangest election. It revolves almost entirely around Trump himself. No one seems to like Biden, even Democrats. Trump, on the other hand, is absolutely loathed by Democrats, even beyond the degree to which he is loved by Republicans. Trump draws crowds of tens of thousands of people, while Biden can barely fill a high school gym. Even though my Facebook contact list is probably 80% Democrat, I have a grand total of seven contacts who have even bothered to "like" Biden's FB page, and some of those I know for certain are Trump supporters. Meanwhile nearly a hundred of my contacts have liked Trump's page. I can't think of a single one of my acquaintances who voted for Trump in 2016 but is now voting for Biden. On the other hand, I can think of many, MANY people who voted for Hillary, but are now voting for Trump. This is all anecdotal, of course, but it just seems odd how the polls seem so diametrically opposed to what I'm seeing with my own two eyes. Anyone else have this impression?

Recent poll out there that shows 60% of the country disapproves of Trump's large rallies and 64% approve of Biden's approach of holding small rallies.  Seems to me the approach Trump is taking is actually hurting him.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/30/trump-rallies-spark-covid-19-fears-among-most-americans-poll-finds/6066102002/

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So scanning the last couple of pages, it seems some think this thread has gone off the rails too. I was following a polling thread on a more conservative forum, and it has devolved as well, infested with Q-dorks and almost reads like their thread on that forum at this point. Most of the guys there are gushing over a guy named Richard Baris who thinks Trump is going to win. I think he called Florida for Trump earlier in the week and has it solid red, and it appears both campaigns are ignoring it down the stretch outside of TV/Youtube ads which make me want to die. Seems like Biden is making more of an effort in the last couple of days. Maybe that's just to not make the Hillary mistake of neglect, but I wonder if his internals aren't as great as the polls which have him with huge leads in key states.

Anyway, I thought I'd get the other perspective on him, but I was a little surprised he hasn't even been discussed considering the 70 page thread on the other forum mostly based around this guy.

Youtube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCWubnBV028_4rVoDPt7FpNQ

Twitter is easy enough to google.

I also searched 'pundit' for "People's Pundit Daily," which is the name of the YT channel. I also haven't watched any of the podcast and only pick up his information reading the thread I mentioned.

Edited by jplvr

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I don't claim to be a poll expert or election prognosticator, but I have found some of the conservative leaning polls this week to be a pretty far outlier to the majority of polls. Nate Silver has indicated that these typically come in more frequently at the end of an election cycle to give the appearance that races are tightening. I looked at the recent poll results over the past few days posted on 538, and here's how things looked in many of the battleground states. The first listing is the average for all the other polls, the second listing is the one conservative outlier, and the last number is how far the two are apart. To clarify, when I say "the average of all other polls," that is generally from 12 to 15 other poll results.

PA: Biden +6.3 . . . Trump +3 = 9.3 points
AZ: Biden +4.8 . . . Trump +4 = 8.8
GA: Biden +3.1 . . . Trump +4 = 7.1
NC: Biden +2.9 . . . Trump +2 = 4.9
NV: Biden +5.0 . . . Trump +5 = 10.0
WI: Biden +9.4 . . . Even = 9.4
MN: Biden +12.7 . . . Biden +5 = 7.7
MI: Biden +9.7 . . . Trump +4 = 13.7

Sure, I understand that there is a margin of error baked into the individual polls, and I get that the algorithm and composition of each poll could be off, but I have a hard time believing the huge majority of polls would be THAT far off.

It's been a couple of days since some conservative polls came out, so I expect a wave of Trump leaning polls will come out today to impact the results, especially at RCP (they use only a handful of the most recent poll results and ignore older polls, even if they are only a couple of days old).

Here's how RCP lists those same states (mostly due to ignoring a lot of polls) . . .

PA: Biden +3.6
AZ: Even
GA: Biden +0.4
NC: Biden +0.6
NV: Biden +4.0
WI: Biden +6.4
MN: Biden +4.7
MI: Biden +6.5

As you can see, in some states, that's a huge difference. Like I said, I am not a poll analyst, but those two sites have access to the same data and information and are a fair amount apart in their analyses.

For anyone that's interested, 538 currently has Trump at 10% (with Biden still at 89%).

 

Edited by Anarchy99
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Some folks don't seem to be able to comprehend how their limited experience might not reflect larger segments of the population. That still surprises me when I see it happening.

Around my area, there are 0 Trump signs, tons of Biden signs. Not a MAGA hat anywhere to be found. I haven't met anyone who is going to vote for Trump, tons ready to go out and vote against him.

I don't for one minute think that's an accurate representation of this country or how the vote will go. "What you see with your own eyes" doesn't mean much. Particularly when you're talking about online communities. You've completely self selected there, of course you're going to see what you want to see.

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9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I don't claim to be a poll expert or election prognosticator, but I have found some of the conservative leaning polls this week to be a pretty far outlier to the majority of polls. Nate Silver has indicated that these typically come in more frequently at the end of an election cycle to give the appearance that races are tightening. I looked at the recent poll results over the past few days posted on 538, and here's how things looked in many of the battleground states. The first listing is the average for all the other polls, the second listing is the one conservative outlier, and the last number is how far the two are apart. To clarify, when I say "the average of all other polls," that is generally from 12 to 15 other poll results.

PA: Biden +6.3 . . . Trump +3 = 9.3 points
AZ: Biden +4.8 . . . Trump +4 = 8.8
GA: Biden +3.1 . . . Trump +4 = 7.1
NC: Biden +2.9 . . . Trump +2 = 4.9
NV: Biden +5.0 . . . Trump +5 = 10.0
WI: Biden +9.4 . . . Even = 9.4
MN: Biden +12.7 . . . Biden +5 = 7.7
MI: Biden +9.7 . . . Trump +4 = 13.7

Sure, I understand that there is a margin of error baked into the individual polls, and I get that the algorithm and composition of each poll could be off, but I have a hard time believing the huge majority of polls would be THAT far off.

It's been a couple of days since some conservative polls came out, so I expect a wave of Trump leaning polls will come out today to impact the results, especially at RCP (they use only a handful of the most recent poll results and ignore older polls, even if they are only a couple of days old).

Here's how RCP lists those same states (mostly due to ignoring a lot of polls) . . .

PA: Biden +3.6
AZ: Even
GA: Biden +0.4
NC: Biden +0.6
NV: Biden +4.0
WI: Biden +6.4
MN: Biden +4.7
MI: Biden +6.5

As you can see, in some states, that's a huge difference. Like I said, I am not a poll analyst, but those two sites have access to the same data and information and are a fair amount apart in their analyses.

For anyone that's interested, 538 currently has Trump at 10% (with Biden still ay 89%).

 

Thank you for this analysis.  I don't buy the only 10% chance of a Trump win.  I put it at like 25% and it could definately happen.  I do feel the only way he wins is with an Electroral college win but another loss in popular vote.  I think that is a really bad result for this country as Trump is just hated by so many people and if he manages to win two elections without a majority of the country voting for him it is not going to be good.  

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1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

Some folks don't seem to be able to comprehend how their limited experience might not reflect larger segments of the population. That still surprises me when I see it happening.

Around my area, there are 0 Trump signs, tons of Biden signs. Not a MAGA hat anywhere to be found. I haven't met anyone who is going to vote for Trump, tons ready to go out and vote against him.

I don't for one minute think that's an accurate representation of this country or how the vote will go. "What you see with your own eyes" doesn't mean much. Particularly when you're talking about online communities. You've completely self selected there, of course you're going to see what you want to see.

I especially like when people prioritize what they see over polls because the polls have been "wrong" before. Yeah, polls contain sampling error. They contain non-sampling error. But, making a prediction based on your friend group or neighborhood or online community is a much bigger sampling error than any poll out there.

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Thought this was interesting:

"To date, Republicans have turned out 59 percent of their voters in Miami-Dade and Democrats have turned out 53 percent, a 6-point margin. That’s twice the margin Republicans had at this point in 2016." Politico.

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After doing some more research, I can better understand why the GOP thinks they are doing well. Going through the individual state polls in the battleground states, here are the most recent results from the conservative polls (mostly Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna). Most of them are pretty recent, but there may be one or two that are 2-3+ months old.

FL: Trump +5
AZ: Trump +4
TX: Trump +7
GA: Trump +7
OH: Trump +4
NC: Trump +3
MI: Trump +2
WI: Even
PA: Even
MN: Biden +3 (with an older poll at even)
NV: Biden +1

So yeah, looking only at the one conservative poll in each state, Trump should clean up and win in a landslide.

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2 hours ago, Doug B said:

If, if, IF Ohio goes blue ... that really locks it in for Biden.

...

Looking at potential results like this right now:

WI, MI, AZ, FL - comfortable Biden wins

IA, NC, PA - tight Biden wins

GA - nail biter in which Trump barely edges out Biden

TX - tight Trump win

OH - comfortable Trump win

You are in for a huge shock if those are your expected results right now.  

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4 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

After doing some more research, I can better understand why the GOP thinks they are doing well. Going through the individual state polls in the battleground states, here are the most recent results from the conservative polls (mostly Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna). Most of them are pretty recent, but there may be one or two that are 2-3+ months old.

FL: Trump +5
AZ: Trump +4
TX: Trump +7
GA: Trump +7
OH: Trump +4
NC: Trump +3
MI: Trump +2
WI: Even
PA: Even
MN: Biden +3 (with an older poll at even)
NV: Biden +1

So yeah, looking only at the one conservative poll in each state, Trump should clean up and win in a landslide.

Even with these biased polls, 6 of those are within the margin of error, and I think if those 6 ended up in the Biden column, he wins. It's interesting, seems like they've cooked the books just enough to show Trump ahead but have a plausible story of how they weren't that far off if Biden wins.

Edited by Gr00vus

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54 minutes ago, Osaurus said:

Great reference :thumbup:

Yea that was elite 

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47 minutes ago, dgreen said:

I especially like when people prioritize what they see over polls because the polls have been "wrong" before. Yeah, polls contain sampling error. They contain non-sampling error. But, making a prediction based on your friend group or neighborhood or online community is a much bigger sampling error than any poll out there.

Almost nobody complaining about polls even knows what a representative sample is or how data gets weighed. They just say things like “well nobody called me and asked” and then fart into their couch. 

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7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

After doing some more research, I can better understand why the GOP thinks they are doing well. Going through the individual state polls in the battleground states, here are the most recent results from the conservative polls (mostly Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna). Most of them are pretty recent, but there may be one or two that are 2-3+ months old.

FL: Trump +5
AZ: Trump +4
TX: Trump +7
GA: Trump +7
OH: Trump +4
NC: Trump +3
MI: Trump +2
WI: Even
PA: Even
MN: Biden +3 (with an older poll at even)
NV: Biden +1

So yeah, looking only at the one conservative poll in each state, Trump should clean up and win in a landslide.

LOL at Trafalgar. They claim their margin of error is only 2.9 (which would make them one of the best in that regard). Rasmussen is 3.5 and 4.3. Here are the current overall polling numbers from 538 for those same states . . . with a margin of error traditionally about 4.0.

FL: Biden +2.0 (Biden polling at 48.6 . . . Trump won with 49.0)
AZ: Biden +3.1 (Biden polling at 48.7 . . . Trump won with 49.0)
TX: Trump +1.3 (Trump polling at 48.1 . . . Trump won with 52.5)
GA: Biden + 1.7 (Biden polling at 48.4 . . . Trump won with 51.0)
OH: Trump +1 (Trump polling at 47.2 . . . Trump won with 51.8)
NC: Biden +1.9 (Biden polling at 48.9 . . . Trump won with 50.5)
MI: Biden +8.6 (Biden polling at 51.1 . . . Trump won with 47.6)
WI: Biden +8.6 (Biden polling at 51.9 . . . Trump won with 47.8)
PA: Biden +5.1 (Biden polling at 50.1 . . . Trump won with 48.6)
MN: Biden +8.2 (Biden polling at 50.2 . . . Clinton won with 46.9)
NV: Biden +6.1 (Biden polling at 49.7 . . . Clinton won with 47.9)

Based on that, IMO, it seems that Trump would be more likely to win TX, GA, OH, and NC. And at least to me it looks like Biden will win MI, WI, PA, MN, and NV. FL and AZ look too close to call and are true toss ups (Biden polling a few tenths of a point off of what Trump won with last time.)

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Forgot to add that 4 days before the election in 2016, Hillary was at 64.5% to win vs. Biden still tracking at 89% now on 538.

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21 minutes ago, Capella said:

Almost nobody complaining about polls even knows what a representative sample is or how data gets weighed. They just say things like “well nobody called me and asked” and then fart into their couch. 

I have a friend who is very successful in his line of work. He's an expert in his field. I enjoy picking his brain about his industry. He has talked about how crazy it is that people who don't have training and experience in his field regularly express their opinions about this field. He's hired to do work, but then they want to tell him how to do the work despite not having the expertise. He makes great points there that I agree with. Yet, he continually comments about things like polls, law enforcement, and even epidemiology; all of which he has no expertise.

In my field, people need to trust the experts. In everyone else's field, I'm totally qualified to have a strong opinion.

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2 hours ago, pantherclub said:

I know I will sound like a moron here, but what does that mean exactly?  In regards to who may win?

I'm still not convinced Texas turns blue, but my opinion on this specific result is a combo of the new world of covid requiring early voting and the Democrats in the state ensuring they vote against Trump which will make it closer than the GOP ever thought possible.

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2 minutes ago, dgreen said:

In my field, people need to trust the experts. In everyone else's field, I'm totally qualified to have a strong opinion.

You're a lawyer too, huh?

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NBC/Marist (A+):

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 52%
Trump 46%

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Odds to win Battleground States

AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI

 

BIDEN

 

 

Biden 10 Lose All 10 States+1100

Biden To Win Exactly 3 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 6 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 9 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 1 States+1200

Biden To Win Exactly 4 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 7 States+550

Biden To Win All 10 States+600

Biden To Win Exactly 2 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Biden To Win Exactly 8 States+450

 

TRUMP

 

Trump 10 Lose All 10 States+600

Trump To Win Exactly 3 States+550

Trump To Win Exactly 6 States+900

Trump To Win Exactly 9 States+1200

Trump To Win Exactly 1 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 4 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 7 States+750

Trump To Win All 10 States+1100

Trump To Win Exactly 2 States+450

Trump To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Trump To Win Exactly 8 States+900

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Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.

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9 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.

This is helpful: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/. NC and FL are the states I am watching because they both should have a good portion of the vote counted by midnight. I think GA too. 

Edited by Kilgore Trout
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15 minutes ago, 2Squirrels1Nut said:

Odds to win Battleground States

AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI

 

BIDEN

 

 

Biden 10 Lose All 10 States+1100

Biden To Win Exactly 3 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 6 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 9 States+750

Biden To Win Exactly 1 States+1200

Biden To Win Exactly 4 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 7 States+550

Biden To Win All 10 States+600

Biden To Win Exactly 2 States+900

Biden To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Biden To Win Exactly 8 States+450

 

TRUMP

 

Trump 10 Lose All 10 States+600

Trump To Win Exactly 3 States+550

Trump To Win Exactly 6 States+900

Trump To Win Exactly 9 States+1200

Trump To Win Exactly 1 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 4 States+750

Trump To Win Exactly 7 States+750

Trump To Win All 10 States+1100

Trump To Win Exactly 2 States+450

Trump To Win Exactly 5 States+800

Trump To Win Exactly 8 States+900

I would take Trump to win 7 states at +750.

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Battleground States Odds By State

 

Arizona

Biden -130   Trump Even

Florida

Trump -160   Biden +120

Georgia

Trump -160   Biden +120

Iowa

Trump -170   Biden +130

Michigan

Biden -300   Trump +220

Minnesota

Biden -360   Trump +250

North Carolina

Biden -115   Trump -115

Ohio

Trump -190   Biden +210  

Michigan

Biden -300   Trump +220

Wisconsin

Biden -320   Trump +230

Edited by 2Squirrels1Nut

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34 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.

I think Texas should report pretty quickly as well but I put that one in Trump column so not sure we learn much from it.  

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32 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

This is helpful: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/. NC and FL are the states I am watching because they both should have a good portion of the vote counted by midnight. I think GA too. 

Thanks! Going through that makes me optimistic that we'll know on election night unless everything hinges on PA.

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1 hour ago, 2Squirrels1Nut said:

Odds to win Battleground States

AZ, FL, GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, WI

Accurate odds IMHO. Biden getting 8 of these has the best shot. Ohio looks firm for Trump. Georgia looks 50-50, but the apparatus in that state shaves a few points off the Democratic count.

The rest should go to Biden, with IA and NC the least firm. How far Florida moves blue will surprise people, I think.

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1 hour ago, Juxtatarot said:

Which battleground states should have enough votes counted by election night to be expected to be called? (Assuming non-razor thin margins.)  I think Florida is a yes while PA, WI and maybe MI are nos.  I'm not sure about MN, NC, IA, OH, TX, GA and AZ.

AZ should have 80% or so of the results ready to report at 8 local time. From someone who knows:


“Polls close at 7. Once the last voter leaves a location the memory card is pulled and driven downtown to elections. If the last voter is gone at 7:05 they can get downtown faster. If there is a line obviously they have to wait and the results of that location will take longer to tally.
At 8:00 the votes cast early will be released. (this is the 80%I mentioned above)

There will be a down period after that.  I'd check again about 9ish. Votes in person on election day will be counted and posted as they are received downtown. Throughout the night they will post little by little.


"Late earlys" as they are called, which is people dropping off a ballot they received by mail, will be counted starting Wednesday.  The projection is at least a couple hundred thousand drop offs on election day alone. That does not include Sunday or Monday. So we will likely have a few hundred thousand votes to count after election day. Which means, we probably won't know who won a lot of the local elections until the weekend.”

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1 hour ago, Juxtatarot said:

Thanks! Going through that makes me optimistic that we'll know on election night unless everything hinges on PA.

PA was nip-tuck in 2016 and was still called well before midnight. Biden will crack a little daylight there and make the result known a little earlier.

EDIT: Forgot to account for the main-in counting in PA. Good info by Juxtatrot and Mystery Achiever below.

Edited by Doug B

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41 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

Biden -290 in OH?  That doesn't seem right.  

It isn't.  Fixed and thanks.   :(

 

ETA   @Thunderlips Please delete the quote so as not to confuse anyone.  TIA

Edited by 2Squirrels1Nut

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

PA was nip-tuck in 2016 and was still called well before midnight. Biden will crack a little daylight there and make the result known a little earlier.

From the 538 link:

Quote

Timing of results

It’ll be slow going. Although around half of Pennsylvanians are expected to vote absentee, those ballots can’t start being processed until 7 a.m. on Nov. 3. Simply put, that’s not enough time for many counties to count them all before the day is over. (For example, Bucks County plans to count ballots 24 hours a day and still doesn’t expect to be done until the end of the week.) Some places aren’t even going to try; Cumberland and Erie counties, for instance, say they won’t count absentee ballots until they’re done with Election Day votes, which could be as late as Wednesday morning. And even counties that manage to count all the ballots in their possession on election night will have to wait until Nov. 6 — the deadline for most mail ballots to arrive — to consider their results complete. Overall, election officials estimate that “the overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by Friday. That said, don’t rule out an even longer wait. During the June primary, about half of counties were still counting a week after the election. No matter what, we’ll definitely know the outcome by Nov. 23 — the deadline for counties to stop counting.

 

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16 minutes ago, Doug B said:

PA was nip-tuck in 2016 and was still called well before midnight. Biden will crack a little daylight there and make the result known a little earlier.

1) PA didn't have no-excuse mail in voting in 2016.
2) They can't touch any of the mail in ballots for processing (2 mill already returned)  before 7 am Nov 3
3) As it stands now, they're allowed to receive ballots (postmarked by Nov 3) til 5pm Nov 6. 

Edited by Mystery Achiever
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1 hour ago, 2Squirrels1Nut said:

Battleground States Odds By State

Georgia

Biden -160   Trump +120

 

If Georgia somehow manages to be the state the prevents Trumps reelection my parents and several other people I know may lose their minds.  That would be a surprise outcome to me but it would make for high drama in AAABatteries world.

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East Carolina University (B/C):

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 50%
Trump 48%

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4 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

If Georgia somehow manages to be the state the prevents Trumps reelection my parents and several other people I know may lose their minds.  That would be a surprise outcome to me but it would make for high drama in AAABatteries world.

It isn't. :wall: I'm an idiot. 

Edited by 2Squirrels1Nut
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7 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

1) PA didn't have no-excuse mail in voting in 2016.
2) They can't touch any of the mail in ballots for processing (2 mill already returned)  before 7 am Nov 3
3) As it stands now, they're allowed to receive ballots (postmarked by Nov 3) til 5pm Nov 6. Though there may not be enough stragglers to be meaningful.

PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

Quote

Pennsylvania Says It Will Segregate Late-Arriving Mail Ballots

Pennsylvania officials said Wednesday that late-arriving mail ballots will be kept separate, taking a step that could head off a Republican appeal against mail-in voting at the U.S. Supreme Court.

Republicans are asking the Supreme Court to block a three-day extension ordered by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court for ballots to arrive. An evenly divided U.S. Supreme Court refused to take that step last week, but the court could reverse course now that Justice Amy Coney Barrett is in place to break the tie.

The Pennsylvania Department of State said all mail-in and absentee ballots delivered by the U.S. Postal Service and received by counties after 8 p.m. on Election Day through 5 p.m. on Nov. 6 can’t be processed and must be be stored separately from other ballots “until further direction is received.”

Separating the ballots could reduce the need for the high court to take up the GOP appeal and rule before the election. It leaves open the possibility the court could invalidate the late-arriving ballots in any post-election legal fight.

The Trump campaign and Republican Party have brought suits in several states to curb mail-in voting, which the president calls rife with fraud, though there is no evidence that is the case. 

This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.

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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.

I think your quote is old (link goes to diff article). GOP already went back a 2nd time, Barrett didn't participate, they ruled 5-3 to not do anything pre-election. However, those three justices may want to explore the point about the ability of the court to make the determination over the legislature. Hence the ballot segregation. I was disappointed they went for the extesion in the 1st place, but here we are. At least the state is being vocal about asking people to drop off ballots at this point and not mail.

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2 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

I think your quote is old (link goes to diff article). GOP already went back a 2nd time, Barrett didn't participate, they ruled 5-3 to not do anything pre-election. However, those three justices may want to explore the point about the ability of the court to make the determination over the legislature. Hence the ballot segregation. I was disappointed they went for the extesion in the 1st place, but here we are. At least the state is being vocal about asking people to drop off ballots at this point and not mail.

The stuff on the PA situation is a lot lower down in the article (but it's still there). I don't want to be around if the votes set aside in PA determine the state and it goes back to the SCOTUS and they determine who wins the entire election.

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For sure, let's hope it doesn't come to that. And, thx, I see the article, but it doesn't reflect the results of the 2nd GOP try. I doubt there will be that many votes from the three extra days, though it is of course possible.And could definitely hold things up. You've also got NC with 9 days post-election to count ballots.

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36 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.

so dumb

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:
2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

PA has the potential to be an absolute cluster. With things playing out in the courts, the SCOTUS last week said they would defer to the state on their decision to count ballots postmarked by election day, however, they reserved the right to revisit the case AFTER the election. So they will have to keep ballots that come in after 8 PM on election separate and count them separately. LINK

This leaves open the possibility that things could go way sideways.

so dumb

Translation: if the race in PA is close and it looks like Biden will need the late-arriving ballots to win, then the Supreme Court will suddenly intervene and declare that those ballots are voided.

On the other hand, if Biden has a comfortable lead, then the Supreme Court will magically decide that their original ruling was just fine.

This is the best of both worlds for Trump. Not only does he get to keep a veto in his pocket, but he also benefits from the state of Pennsylvania telling Democrats to go ahead and wait until Election Day to mail their ballots.

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6 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

On the other hand, if Biden has a comfortable lead, then the Supreme Court will magically decide that their original ruling was just fine.

There is a good chance it gets revisited regardless.
Justice Alito: "It would be highly desirable to issue a ruling on the constitutionality of the State Supreme Court's decision before the election. That question has national importance, and there is a strong likelihood that the State Supreme Court decision violates the Federal Constitution," he wrote. "The provisions of the Federal Constitution conferring on state legislatures, not state courts, the authority to make rules governing federal elections would be meaningless if a state court could override the rules adopted by the legislature simply by claiming that a state constitutional provision gave the courts the authority to make whatever rules it thought appropriate for the conduct of a fair election.''there is simply not enough time at this late date to decide the question before the election. Although the Court denies the motion to expedite, the petition for certiorari remains before us, and if it is granted, the case can then be decided under a shortened schedule,"

 

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So they're going to let people vote under one set of deadlines and then change them after the fact? That seems less justicey than just truncating the deadline now ahead of the election so that people would know not to mail in. I get that he doesn't think they have enough time to figure it out now, but I don't see how you can reserve the possibility of changing the deadline after the fact in that case.

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6 hours ago, mrip541 said:

Thought this was interesting:

"To date, Republicans have turned out 59 percent of their voters in Miami-Dade and Democrats have turned out 53 percent, a 6-point margin. That’s twice the margin Republicans had at this point in 2016." Politico.

Strange nobody commented on this post, seems like a disaster for Democrats. Trailing Hillary in voter turnout? Wow.
 

Quote

MIAMI — Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.

No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.

 

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2 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

For sure, let's hope it doesn't come to that. And, thx, I see the article, but it doesn't reflect the results of the 2nd GOP try. I doubt there will be that many votes from the three extra days, though it is of course possible.And could definitely hold things up. You've also got NC with 9 days post-election to count ballots.

Have you checked what year it is?

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19 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

So they're going to let people vote under one set of deadlines and then change them after the fact? That seems less justicey than just truncating the deadline now ahead of the election so that people would know not to mail in. I get that he doesn't think they have enough time to figure it out now, but I don't see how you can reserve the possibility of changing the deadline after the fact in that case.

Maybe the theory is it is better to get it right most of the time than none of the time. :shrug:

2 minutes ago, Kilgore Trout said:

Have you checked what year it is?

 A girl can hope. :shrug:

 

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17 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

Strange nobody commented on this post, seems like a disaster for Democrats. Trailing Hillary in voter turnout? Wow.
 

 

I love how pick and choose which data/polls are real and important to you. Lol 

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