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A partisan GOP poll of North Carolina just showed Biden +3, moving his overall win probability from 89.39% to 89.58% (which of course now rounds up to 90%).
I have been waiting for the clearly favored designation for weeks.A partisan GOP poll of North Carolina just showed Biden +3, moving his overall win probability from 89.39% to 89.58% (which of course now rounds up to 90%).
Once Biden actually eclipses 90%, he’ll move from “favored” to “clearly favored.”
Trump Hotel charged 1200 per guest for an election night "victory" party.
PA looks good but I hope that it doesn’t come down to that. I heard that a likely scenario is that Trump could be up double digits in PA on election night because of how they count absentee ballots and that lead could switch to a Biden win days later. That is a nightmare situation not only due to of the optics of it but also because it increases the chances of shenanigans.
79% of D and 66% of R ballots have been returned in PA. And, anecdotally, there was a steady stream of people coming by with ballots when I went by the local dropoff this morning.
And the counties that said they couldn’t start counting the mail-in votes until Wednesday went for Trump in 2016.
Most people are not insane online conspiracy theorists. Twitter is not real life.
Here’s what the MULaw poll director said about this — the “refused” folks appear to be pretty evenly distributed: https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1321871747134693382?s=20
This is purely anecdotal so take it for what it’s worth...
The 13% Republican deficit is likely due to people who plan to vote in person, not by mail. The late-arriving mail ballots will almost certainly be skewed towards Biden.
We're already at about 65% of the total number of people who voted in 2016 in the U.S. Is there some data out there that would lead us to think Republicans favor in person voting during a pandemic more so than Democrats at a 13% rate?
NBC poll from late August.
Taking those four, that's basically a victory for Biden, right? Even with MI, AZ, and WI, Biden's at 270, I believe.
I think I've seen this kind of expected split a few times, and I'm not sure what to make of the actual split being much closer.
Fair question. 538 weights polls based on “reliability” anyway, so it almost doesn’t matter what they do and don’t include.
It was a nationwide poll, so there's going to be quite a bit of variance depending on different state voting rules, not to mention the severity of COVID in a respondent's district. In Pennsylvania, ballots are not mailed automatically (you have to request one), so that probably reduces the spread a bit.
I was just trying to find a place to see how that poll had changed over time. From what I can gather, it seems Biden has gained a point in that poll since September.
If Biden wins WI, MI, MN, NV, he can win with:
The 79% vs 66% is return rate of requested ballots. It's certainly possible that more Rs than Ds decided to vote in person after their request. But there were three million ballots requested out of nine million registered voters. I would guess that more of the party disparity regarding interest in in-person voting is reflected there :
Nate Silver has explained that part of Trump’s odds of winning were based on......having more time until the election.....during which “something could happen” that would swing the odds. (Eg Comey 4 years ago). Every day that passes without something happening.....the odds shift slightly more in Biden’s favor, because Trump is running out of time for a bombshell to come out of nowhere.
yes, though in my completely amateur review of the polls, I am not sure that I totally trust AZ. Not to mention the fact that AZ is just generally a weird place. I know that the early voting is skewed toward democrats, but I am not considering that safe for Biden yet.
