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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)

Rich Conway said:
To me, #2 and #3 are simply another way of saying "a lot of former Republicans are currently embarrassed to call themselves Republicans and now call themselves independents".
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Big takeaway to me is that Democrats marketing themselves to Republicans and taking their base for granted was not a smart strategy.  The NeverTrump group is already a lead pipe lock for them.  Trump’s base isn’t going anywhere.  Neither group is going to budge at all.  The real question is who is going to connect better with independents and win over more of the 100M+ nonvoters in this country.  Why not at least take a bold stance on marijuana legalization or something. 

I think 2020, like 2016, will be another anti-establishment election.  If Trump runs to Biden’s left on issues like war, healthcare, trade, criminal justice, Biden could very well lose this thing.  I don’t see this playing out favorably for him at all.  

 
dkp993 said:
IvanKaramazov said:
ren hoek said:
3. There's basically no such thing as a Biden Republican, which means defeating Trump is all about Dem turnout.
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I know this is probably true, but it's still mind-blowing.
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This makes no sense to me. Didn’t the Democratic convention feature a ton of prominent Republicans telling you to vote for Biden.
 

How many Democrats were in the Republican convention doing the same?   
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Lots of Republican party leaders, officials, and celebrities have endorsed Biden.

(No equivalent Democrats have endorsed Trump as far as I know.)

Anyway, ren's twitter bot is probably wrong.  This poll shows that 11% of Republicans plan to vote for Biden -- and while that's not a huge amount, it would be higher than what Hillary got in 2016 (8%) and would represent the highest number of Republican voters to vote blue since Bill Clinton in 1996.

edit: BTW, the same poll above shows that 8% of Democrats plan to vote for Trump, which is a bit less than what he got in 2016.

 
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rockaction said:
You can find singular instances anywhere. What you can't do is find an aggregate, apparently. Republicans and Trump voters are very happy with him and give him a wildly positive job approval rating from what I've read. It's why I'm no longer a member of the American right as presently constituted. Not for me.
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Re: the bolded, I can't find it anywhere on left toward Trump.  So I believe it carries weight going the other way.   

I think there are a lot of people like you out there.  

 
This is so embarrassing to my generation.

"The poll also revealed several key demographic advantages for Biden. The only age group with a Trump lead was the 35-49 group, who favored the president 45 percent to 37 percent."

 
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rockaction said:
This is so effing embarrassing to my generation.

"The poll also revealed several key demographic advantages for Biden. The only age group with a Trump lead was the 35-49 group, who favored the president 45 percent to 37 percent."
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Perfect storm of where Gen-X and Millennials crash, and mid-life crisis sweeps down on both.

 
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rockaction said:
This is so embarrassing to my generation.

"The poll also revealed several key demographic advantages for Biden. The only age group with a Trump lead was the 35-49 group, who favored the president 45 percent to 37 percent."
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Seriously, I'm right in the middle of this group.  My only guess is that the Dem and Independent side here isn't thrilled with Biden and preferred other candidates in the primary.  I'd fall into that group.  If I was polled in this, I could easily go with the 18% that didn't respond even though there is no way I'd vote for trump.  

 
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dkp993 said:
This makes no sense to me. Didn’t the Democratic convention feature a ton of prominent Republicans telling you to vote for Biden.
 

How many Democrats were in the Republican convention doing the same?   
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Picture John Kerry and Joe Lieberman speaking at the RNC, telling them ‘the left’ has ‘gone too far,’ that we have to support John Kasich to stop a hypothetical Sanders repeat.  The wapo/nyt editorial boards gleam with excitement over how the RNC is appealing to ‘moderate Democrats.’   

Would this be an exciting prospect for “moderate Dems” to swing over to the Republican side?  Because I think this hypothetical isn’t unlike the proposition that Dems are trying to make this year. I don’t want to equate Trump and Sanders so much, just for sake of hypothetical, but I don’t know anyone other than die hard centrists that would get jazzed about a John Kasich speaking slot.  

 
ren hoek said:
Picture John Kerry and Joe Lieberman speaking at the RNC, telling them ‘the left’ has ‘gone too far,’ that we have to support John Kasich to stop a hypothetical Sanders repeat.  The wapo/nyt editorial boards gleam with excitement over how the RNC is appealing to ‘moderate Democrats.’   

Would this be an exciting prospect for “moderate Dems” to swing over to the Republican side?  Because I think this hypothetical isn’t unlike the proposition that Dems are trying to make this year. I don’t want to equate Trump and Sanders so much, just for sake of hypothetical, but I don’t know anyone other than die hard centrists that would get jazzed about a John Kasich speaking slot.  
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Bernie vs. Kasich was my dream 2016 ticket.  I'd be jazzed for Kasich right now.  Not so much for policy, but for morals, decency and brain cells still sparking.  

 
ren hoek said:
Picture John Kerry and Joe Lieberman speaking at the RNC, telling them ‘the left’ has ‘gone too far,’ that we have to support John Kasich to stop a hypothetical Sanders repeat.  The wapo/nyt editorial boards gleam with excitement over how the RNC is appealing to ‘moderate Democrats.’   

Would this be an exciting prospect for “moderate Dems” to swing over to the Republican side?  Because I think this hypothetical isn’t unlike the proposition that Dems are trying to make this year. I don’t want to equate Trump and Sanders so much, just for sake of hypothetical, but I don’t know anyone other than die hard centrists that would get jazzed about a John Kasich speaking slot.  
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Regardless it doesn’t jive with your first post. The DNC had multiple “Biden Republicans”. You said they were basically none. Had you said they were basically no “Trump Democrats”. You would’ve been correct. I think the number of people who are Republicans that will vote for Biden outnumber the Democrats that will vote for Trump 100 to 1. 

 
TripItUp said:
Among my circle of "California Republicans" everybody is voting Trump because the progressive agenda/platform during the Democratic primaries scared the hell out of them.   I'm sure other Republicans are being swayed by the riots and "defunding" etc. etc., but it's the progressive agenda/platform that scares the hell out of us California Republicans.

So in summary I guess what I'm saying is that it doesn't surprise me at all there aren't many Biden Republicans.  I don't know a single Republican voting for Biden.

I hope the recent polling numbers are a reaction to the progressive movement...it may force the Democrats more to the center.  From somebody that voted for Bill Clinton twice(and would again).
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I'm a California Republican voting Biden.

But I've been told numerous times the Bush, Romney, McCain, Kasich Republican party is dead and has no place in the party. The "New Right" (not sure who came up with that term) apparently is the future...whatever that means. Oh well....

 
ren hoek said:
I think 2020, like 2016, will be another anti-establishment election.  If Trump runs to Biden’s left on issues like war, healthcare, trade, criminal justice, Biden could very well lose this thing.  I don’t see this playing out favorably for him at all.  
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Trump's problem is that voters aren't buying his overtures to the left any more. In 2016, his soft rhetoric on healthcare and social security led voters to perceive him as the most moderate GOP candidate since '72. Hillary was viewed as the "more extreme" candidate in that race. Now that Trump has governed like a regular old conservative on those issues, voters perceive him as much more of an extremist, and his attempts to run the 2016 playbook again aren't working so far. 

 
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rockaction said:
For all intents and purposes, I am. There are a bunch of others like me.
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There is no one else like you rock 🤩

Seriously though I think ‘principled nevertrump republicans’ are borderline nonexistent.  Way over-represented in msnbc bookings and huge editorial pages.  

Trump is enormously popular with Republicans and apparently polling well with Independents too.  I don’t know man 

 
ren hoek said:
There is no one else like you rock 🤩

Seriously though I think ‘principled nevertrump republicans’ are borderline nonexistent.  Way over-represented in msnbc bookings and huge editorial pages.  

Trump is enormously popular with Republicans and apparently polling well with Independents too.  I don’t know man 
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Heh. Thanks, ren.

I think you're dead right about the over-representation of Never Trumpers in the editorial pages and among the cognoscenti, if that loaded word even exists in truth.

He is enormously popular with Republicans which is why I said to dkp993 that you've got to look at the aggregate picture, and not the singulars trotted out at a convention dog and pony show. But I'll bet that among conservatives with graduate or law degrees, you'll find quite a few of us. The dichotomy in education and Trump support is probably why he actually said out loud during the primaries, "I love my uneducateds (sic)." Direct quote. That's who supports him in large numbers. I'm not being snobbish. That's fact.

 
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Are there any WI, MI, PA, NC, FL, other swinger states, Biden Republicans here?   Like voted Trump 2016, didn't sit out or vote 3rd party, and will vote Biden 2020?

 
beef said:
Are there any WI, MI, PA, NC, FL, other swinger states, Biden Republicans here?   Like voted Trump 2016, didn't sit out or vote 3rd party, and will vote Biden 2020?
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I was a Republican in PA but didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 because I don’t consider him a Republican or a Conservative. Not sure if you’d count me since I didn’t vote for Trump before and by the way have disowned the party. I’ll vote D for the rest of my life so help me God.

 
pecorino said:
I was a Republican in PA but didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 because I don’t consider him a Republican or a Conservative. Not sure if you’d count me since I didn’t vote for Trump before and by the way have disowned the party. I’ll vote D for the rest of my life so help me God.
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This is about where I sit. I didn't vote in 2016 as I felt the party and the even the ideological right drifting away from me. I could no longer intellectually align with the right and its manifestation, the Republican Party. Bye guys.

 
The Gator said:
USC tracking Poll - that everyone raved about for correctly having Trump as the winner in 2016

Biden - 53

Trump - 40
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The 2016 USC tracking poll was a fluke. They polled the same pool of people for several months, tracking the opinions of only that group. The fact that they happened to stumble upon a pro-Trump sample was a matter of coincidence.

Also, IIRC, the USC poll showed Hillary closing the gap in early November, when reality was just the opposite.

 
I still think the polls are missing some key trump voter segments.  Not sure the low rating RNC convention numbers really help that claim, but not sure these missing poll supporters would watch???    

 
Juxtatarot said:
The Economist’s forecast has Biden at an 88% chance to win. I hadn’t seen this before.
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They've got North Carolina at 59% for Biden, which seems backwards.

Ohio and Georgia as toss-ups? No way.

They've got Wisconsin as "very likely" for Biden, which I don't buy for a second.

Arizona (65% for Biden) is 10 points higher than 538's forecast.

Michigan (87%), Pennsylvania (82%) and Florida (78%) also seem very inflated.

It's like they've learned nothing from their predictions from 2016. Or they're trolling Trump supporters.

 
My friend, who has a doctorate in political science and quantitative methods from UVA, is involved in the polling and focus group business. He tests out messaging and other things like that, including some limited poll work. He says the election is much closer than people think, that Trump is within two points in Michigan, etc.

And he's no Trump fan even though he and I are both pretty conservative. He just says this is really tight right now.

 
Trafalgar may be skewed (last poll it ran roughly 4-6 points to the right of others) but it's still a 4 point swing towards Trump using that as a baseline. Vote. Vote. Vote.

 
rockaction said:
My friend, who has a doctorate in political science and quantitative methods from UVA, is involved in the polling and focus group business. He tests out messaging and other things like that, including some limited poll work. He says the election is much closer than people think, that Trump is within two points in Michigan, etc.

And he's no Trump fan even though he and I are both pretty conservative. He just says this is really tight right now.
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The betting market concurs.

 
TripItUp said:
The betting market concurs.
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The riots and lawlessness have proven very, very bad for Democrats, one surmises. They focus group this stuff to death and all you heard apparently about at the RNC was the utter lawlessness of the cities moving potentially to the suburbs.

Not good for Dems. They, in encouraging their constituents to air grievances and not prosecuting them when those grievances were expressed through arson or violence, may have signed over the election to Trump, which I hate. I'm not sure I like the Dems any better, though at least Biden will staff a cabinet for real and get some experts on subjects in there instead of his very own talking pets.

 
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