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daylight

2020 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

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29 minutes ago, daylight said:

Love the analysis @BobbyLayne - all of these are Week 2 WW Darlings - but let me as you this: who are you putting your chip on THIS WEEK? Who is your current LOTTO? One of these 5 or someone else over these 5?

Hines is starting at RB2 this week over Ingram

also added Edmonds

current lotto tickets: Edmonds, L. Murray, Darrell Williams

mulling over picking up Gaskin for free (waivers already ran)

Kelley, McKinnon, & ADP also out there

 

(my input will be less useful this year than in the past; let the league shrink to 10-teamer for 2020. most are in 12/14/16 team redrafts.

we’ve lost 7 owners bc of politics/protests in my long time league over the last 5 years after having no turnover for a decade.)

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I didn’t take the Booker signing seriously since I thought he looked pretty bad in Denver. 

His touches on Sunday had me shocked,  minus the fumble.  He looked much better in their power run game and suddenly seems to me like a very capable handcuff/compliment to Jacobs.  

Might even have the best hands out of all RBs. 
 

 

Edited by One

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Obviously the back to own in the SF back field this week is McKinnon - but who is the LOTTO is SF this week.

Wilson or Hasty.

 

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1 hour ago, daylight said:

Obviously the back to own in the SF back field this week is McKinnon - but who is the LOTTO is SF this week.

Wilson or Hasty.

 

Is Jeff Wilson worth a spot on your fantasy roster in Week 3? (Wilson described as the fourth option in the backfield behind Mostert, Coleman, and McKinnon - likely to see at least 50% of the offensive snaps this Sunday)

49ers protect JaMycal Hasty on their practice squad (“Hasty will likely be promoted to the active roster this coming Sunday and serve as the team’s third running back behind Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jerick McKinnon.”)

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Let's talk about D'Ernest Johnson (13-95 Week 4) 

Will be a top add with Chubb out six weeks

former AAF player (2nd in rushing when it folded), South Florida grad (2017)

presumably JAG but he's the next man up

bit undersized at 208 but very physical running style

not a great top gear (4.55) but flashed some receiving potential in college (12 of his 29 TDs were receiving)

saw the college highlights & yesterday, thinking he is a must add this week

 

thoughts?

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other situations to monitor and act accordingly this week:

Carolina - CMC still out another month, Mike Davis dinged, Reggie Bonnafon looked good

San Diego - Kelley had some rough sledding yesterday, as did Justin Jackson. Not sure how serious injury to Austin Eckler is...

 

satellite backs for the PPR desperate: Duke Johnson, JD McKIssic, Kalen Ballage (OK, one of these is not like the other two but he does have 9 catches on 10 targets)

 

if you're jealous you don't own one of the 4-5 RBs that NE might feature week to week: Cam Akers if he was dropped or Malcolm Brown looked relevant again

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2 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Let's talk about D'Ernest Johnson (13-95 Week 4) 

Will be a top add with Chubb out six weeks

former AAF player (2nd in rushing when it folded), South Florida grad (2017)

presumably JAG but he's the next man up

bit undersized at 208 but very physical running style

not a great top gear (4.55) but flashed some receiving potential in college (12 of his 29 TDs were receiving)

saw the college highlights & yesterday, thinking he is a must add this week

 

thoughts?

He looked good on this run:

https://www.nfl.com/videos/d-ernest-johnson-takes-off-for-lightning-quick-28-yard-dash

And Hunt was coming in with a groin injury. At his pro-day he was only 4.79, but he looks faster.

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Made updates to the list at the top of page 1 of this thread:

    ▪    Chase Edmonds ARI - tagged him as a LOTTO - Bloom has been talking him up this week in the podcasts as a possible "changing of the guard" situation in ARI
    ▪    Gus Edwards BAL - tagged him as a LOTTO - Bloom has been talking him up this week - apparently he is leading the lead in yards after contact - if he becomes the #1...
    ▪    CLE - D'Ernest Johnson
    ▪    Tony Pollard DAL - made him a LOTTO - if he becomes the un-challenged #1...
    ▪    Made Jamaal Williams GBP a LOTTO - with what we have seen of AJ Dillion and the 2020 Packers AND how he is playing - if he becomes #1...
    ▪    Updated James Robinson in JAC as TOOLATE
    ▪    Updated D Henderson LAR as TOOLATE (he is most likely rostered)
    ▪    Updated NYG RBs - does it matter?
    ▪    Updated PHI RBs - does it matter?
    ▪    Jet McKinnon SFO - tagged him as TOOLATE
    ▪    Added Ke'Shawn Vaughn to TBB
    ▪    Tagged A Gibson WAS as TOOLATE

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Top 5 update: 

Regardless of “status” (Lotto, Handcuff, etc.) - if they became the clear starter for any reason...
What are your Top 5 Season Changing - King Makers to hold?
Here’s mine:
    1.    Darrel Williams KC
    2.    Pollard DAL
    3.    Dobbins BAL and/or Edwards BAL
    4.    Chase Edmonds ARZ
    5.    Tied for #5:  Wilkins IND, D Evans TENN - 2 teams determined to run the ball no matter what

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Posted (edited)

Not nearly as high on Darrel Williams as earlier in the season. He does a lot of things well but is not very dynamic. If CEH went down, I could see Thompson getting a big piece of the pie at a minimum. 

Edited by zamboni
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19 minutes ago, daylight said:

Top 5 update: 

Regardless of “status” (Lotto, Handcuff, etc.) - if they became the clear starter for any reason...
What are your Top 5 Season Changing - King Makers to hold?
Here’s mine:
    1.    Darrel Williams KC
    2.    Pollard DAL
    3.    Dobbins BAL and/or Edwards BAL
    4.    Chase Edmonds ARZ
    5.    Tied for #5:  Wilkins IND, D Evans TENN - 2 teams determined to run the ball no matter what

Latavious, Mattison, Edmonds, Pollard, Kelley

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, daylight said:


What are your Top 5 Season Changing - King Makers to hold?
 

I’d have to say something like this:
    1.    Kareem Hunt, CLE
    2.    Latavius Murray,  NO
    3.    Tony Pollard, DAL
    4.    Alexander Mattison, MIN
    5.    Mike Davis, CAR


I like a number of RBs that aren’t starting, but i don’t feel they’ll hit as hard as these because they’ll either join a committee or won’t be given a workhorse like load in their given offense.  
 

Dobbins - Love Dobbins and feel he has incredible upside, but he will likely remain in a committee with either Edwards or Ingram if one gets hurt.  If Baltimore hands over the reigns this season,  I’d say he’s up there at #1 with Kareem Hunt. 

Booker - The Raiders offense is built to pound the rock.  The RBs also catch a lot of passes   I think Richard will continue his current role,  but Booker will get the main carries, GL and still catch a number of passes.

Edmonds - I still don’t feel like he can be a stand-alone RB in any offense.  Will join Eno Benjamin in a committee. 

Williams - Can’t help but feel like Jamaal Williams could rip in year 2 if this offense if Aaron Jones went down.

Wilkins - Great O-Line, lots of volume if he’s able to take the role for himself. 
 

Edited by Teef
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I’d add Brian Hill as a potential high end handcuff.

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10 hours ago, zamboni said:

Not nearly as high on Darrel Williams as earlier in the season. He does a lot of things well but is not very dynamic. If CEH went down, I could see Thompson getting a big piece of the pie at a minimum. 

Agree 100%. Williams isn’t impressive and Thompson has more upside 

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10 hours ago, djmich said:

Latavious, Mattison, Edmonds, Pollard, Kelley

 

10 hours ago, djmich said:

Latavious, Mattison, Edmonds, Pollard, Kelley

Kelley isn’t a lotto pick anymore and Lat Murray/Pollard/Mattison belong at the top of this list. 

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How about McFarland?  
 

Seems to passing Snell on the depth chart and Connor isn’t that durable.  

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2 hours ago, ninogaggi said:

How about McFarland?  
 

Seems to passing Snell on the depth chart and Connor isn’t that durable.  

I think McFarland would remain the change of pace and Snell would take the Conner role if(when) Conner gets injured.

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Any possible LOTTOs not currently on the list on page 1?

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12 minutes ago, daylight said:

Any possible LOTTOs not currently on the list on page 1?

Not sure there's value there, but maybe Perine for the Jets. 

Who knows how much longer Gase is around and we know he doesn't like Bell. Plus at some point in a lost season, they may want to give him a longer look to evaluate their needs at the position for next year.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

 

Kelley isn’t a lotto pick anymore and Lat Murray/Pollard/Mattison belong at the top of this list. 

Pollard continues to be available in many leagues I see.

I really want to squeeze him onto my team.

I had been holding D Williams to handcuff CEH, but recently traded away CEH and am thinking of switching him out for Pollard. Both have a pretty solid path to touches if the person in front of them goes down. Both in high scoring offenses.

Zeke just seems so durable. Which gives D Williams the edge for me... for now.

Edited by VikingFrog
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DeAndre Washington was activated from the practice squad recently I believe which could put a damper on D. Williams as neither him nor Thompson have been impressive. Could be more of a split/committee if CEH goes down.

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1 minute ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Lamical Perine?

Any other trash picking among the Jets?

if you’re PPR is McKissic on the wire? or Jamaal Williams? wouldn’t trust Duke rn.

think I’m starting Edmonds :excited: & Ingram :X  this week

 

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On 10/9/2020 at 11:57 AM, zamboni said:
On 10/9/2020 at 11:42 AM, daylight said:

Any possible LOTTOs not currently on the list on page 1?

Not sure there's value there, but maybe Perine for the Jets. 

Who knows how much longer Gase is around and we know he doesn't like Bell. Plus at some point in a lost season, they may want to give him a longer look to evaluate their needs at the position for next year.

First thing I've gotten right this year.

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On 10/8/2020 at 7:39 PM, zamboni said:

Not nearly as high on Darrel Williams as earlier in the season. He does a lot of things well but is not very dynamic. If CEH went down, I could see Thompson getting a big piece of the pie at a minimum. 

Not arguing with you @zamboni - just noting:

KCC - 2020-10-13 (Tuesday)

"two consecutive outings Thompson has gone without an offensive snap"

https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=13476

just saying - just trying to figure out the KCC backfield.

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6 minutes ago, daylight said:

Not arguing with you @zamboni - just noting:

KCC - 2020-10-13 (Tuesday)

"two consecutive outings Thompson has gone without an offensive snap"

https://www.rotowire.com/football/player.php?id=13476

just saying - just trying to figure out the KCC backfield.

Yeah, looks like Thompson isn’t showing much, but seems like neither is Williams. Probably why they called up DeAndre Washington from the practice squad.

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58 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Yeah, looks like Thompson isn’t showing much, but seems like neither is Williams. Probably why they called up DeAndre Washington from the practice squad.

Maybe Reid/KCC is losing faith in both (Williams and Thompson)?

Edited by daylight
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1 hour ago, daylight said:

Maybe Reid/KCC is losing faith in both (Williams and Thompson)?

Could be - also maybe why Bell doesn’t seem so far-fetched for them.

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On 10/14/2020 at 9:38 PM, zamboni said:

 

On 10/14/2020 at 7:44 PM, daylight said:

Maybe Reid/KCC is losing faith in both (Williams and Thompson)?

Could be - also maybe why Bell doesn’t seem so far-fetched for them.

 

Guess we have our answer on Williams and Thompson.

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Kind of hate my lottery RBs this year:

  • Chase Edmonds - eating into Drakes snaps, usage and production have been near linear climb. Started him last week and will again next week. But he'll never be the guy regardless of the starter. He's 205 and plays small. Great in space and he has carved out a role, he's not a terrible RB2/Flex but not sure the role is expandable. 
  • Lactavious Murray - started him against Detroit bc I know they can't stop the run, he fell into the end zone twice. Had a definite role; he keeps Kamara fresh by taking a good share of the inside runs. Theoretically he's next man up but huge drop off in the passing game if Alvin ever missed time.
  • Jaamal Williams - good pass catcher and talented back. Jones is a TD beast and most games is a three down back. Not the worst lottery pick to hold but won't ever have Flex value unless there is an injury.
  • Nyheim Hines - started off great, but little since. Last week should have been the perfect game script for him with the Colts behind all day. Instead he was splitting third downs with Taylor. If the rookie gets hurt, he won't see much of an uptake in his carries but at least worth something in full PPR.
  • Darrell Williams - he appears to be ahead of Darwin T, but I'm seeing like a 60/40 split at best if the rookie ever gets dinged. It's hard to get into any kind of rhythm when you only get a few touches a game, hasn't shown much since Week 1. But he's worth holding for now.
  • JD McKissic - hear me out. He is not a handcuff in any way, shape or form. But he's fourth in RB targets league wide and has 16 catches the last three games. Starting him this week to fill a bye, low expectations. Have seen him enough in Seattle & Detroit to know he's basically a poor man's Theo Riddick, but in full PPR he has some value. 
  • Mark Ingram - not a handcuff, unstartable. Doesn't belong in this thread. I just wanted to include him because all three of the Ravens RB are worthless and none more so than the former Heisman winner.

SUMMARY: I own a bunch of trash bags.

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I think Jamaal Williams is the one to have right now if he's available. He's proven to do well when called upon and has top 5 upside if Jones gets hurt. Not much else jumping out at me as far as available options.

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11 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Kind of hate my lottery RBs this year:

  • Chase Edmonds - eating into Drakes snaps, usage and production have been near linear climb. Started him last week and will again next week. But he'll never be the guy regardless of the starter. He's 205 and plays small. Great in space and he has carved out a role, he's not a terrible RB2/Flex but not sure the role is expandable. 
  • Lactavious Murray - started him against Detroit bc I know they can't stop the run, he fell into the end zone twice. Had a definite role; he keeps Kamara fresh by taking a good share of the inside runs. Theoretically he's next man up but huge drop off in the passing game if Alvin ever missed time.
  • Jaamal Williams - good pass catcher and talented back. Jones is a TD beast and most games is a three down back. Not the worst lottery pick to hold but won't ever have Flex value unless there is an injury.
  • Nyheim Hines - started off great, but little since. Last week should have been the perfect game script for him with the Colts behind all day. Instead he was splitting third downs with Taylor. If the rookie gets hurt, he won't see much of an uptake in his carries but at least worth something in full PPR.
  • Darrell Williams - he appears to be ahead of Darwin T, but I'm seeing like a 60/40 split at best if the rookie ever gets dinged. It's hard to get into any kind of rhythm when you only get a few touches a game, hasn't shown much since Week 1. But he's worth holding for now.
  • JD McKissic - hear me out. He is not a handcuff in any way, shape or form. But he's fourth in RB targets league wide and has 16 catches the last three games. Starting him this week to fill a bye, low expectations. Have seen him enough in Seattle & Detroit to know he's basically a poor man's Theo Riddick, but in full PPR he has some value. 
  • Mark Ingram - not a handcuff, unstartable. Doesn't belong in this thread. I just wanted to include him because all three of the Ravens RB are worthless and none more so than the former Heisman winner.

SUMMARY: I own a bunch of trash bags.

Another positive take on Williams:

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/30106431/fantasy-football-last-minute-pickups-nfl-week-6-ryan-fitzpatrick-preston-williams-more

Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers (19.5% rostered; at Buccaneers)

After proving dominant last season, Tampa appears to possess the league's stingiest rush defense yet again. Citing Tampa's defense might be an odd way to promote Williams, sure, but the premise is that he has recently surfaced as a helpful third-down option in the receiving phase for the Packers. Funneling targets to the backfield as a means to replicate the running phase could serve Williams well in this matchup, even as Aaron Jones obviously consumes the more valuable role. Week 4's spike in receiving usage for Williams could prove to be an aberration, but against an overwhelmingly tough run defense, I can envision the Packers looking to move the chains via the air. Washington's J.D. McKissic, available in roughly 85% of ESPN leagues, is another viable receiving threat out of the backfield worth considering for those facing injury and bye issues. -- J.M.

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I drafted Mattison as a lottery pick - sadly instead of a jackpot, for the past week at least he was just a $1 scratcher.

I figure I might as well swap to another lotto pick for this week since Mattison is on a bye, and likely will be back to his normal role the week after.  His latest showing will probably help to keep him available on the wire for a while.

After surveying what's available in my league, I think I'm going to swap him for Booker - just on this page there are several encouraging posts about Booker.

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On 10/15/2020 at 9:51 PM, BobbyLayne said:

 

  • Lactavious Murray

Sorry, I know that's an unintended typo but made me laugh.

Lactavious Murray -- not the brightest bulb in the chandelier -- you could even say he's a bit of a boob.

Lactavious Murray -- may either be a really great fit for the cheeseheads in GB, or maybe a bit of an intolerant location for him.

Lactavious Murray should be traded to the Texans to pair up with JJ "The Milk Man" Watt as a formidable HOU offense/defense combo.

Lactavious Murray pairs up with the estate of Cookie Gilchrist to fund a scholarship for would-be NFL/CFL RBs.

 

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Just now, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Sorry, I know that's an unintended typo but made me laugh.

Lactavious Murray -- not the brightest bulb in the chandelier -- you could even say he's a bit of a boob.

Lactavious Murray -- may either be a really great fit for the cheeseheads in GB, or maybe a bit of an intolerant location for him.

Lactavious Murray should be traded to the Texans to pair up with JJ "The Milk Man" Watt as a formidable HOU offense/defense combo.

Lactavious Murray pairs up with the estate of Cookie Gilchrist to fund a scholarship for would-be NFL/CFL RBs.

 

Nobody picked up on it lol

It was intentional, stolen from Chris Harris 

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1 minute ago, BobbyLayne said:

Nobody picked up on it lol

It was intentional, stolen from Chris Harris 

The guy from Top Gear or the Broncos DB?

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3 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

The guy from Top Gear or the Broncos DB?

:lmao:

for the benefit of others, the fantasy football podcaster 

 

You mentioned Cookie Gilchrist - that guy had an amazing life. Paul Brown tried for sign him to an illegal contract after his junior year, which was gonna make him ineligible to go back to school. So instead he went up to the CFL, going both ways and was an All Star for six years. Went to the new league (AFL) in 1962 and became their first 1K rusher, all star the first 4 years when he led the league rushing TDs 4 straight. So that’s 10 straight years of being an all star, won a Grey Cup and an AFL title. Madden said he wAs the most devastating blocking back he ever saw. Ended up playing for 8 CFL/AFL teams in 14 years, finally ending up in TC with the expansion Bengals - owned by Paul Brown.

Outspoken player who led a boycott against holding the AFL ASG in N’Orleans. Refused election to the CFL HoF bc they were racist af & treated him horribly in the 1950s. Dude’s life would make an awesome biography or movie.

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On 8/23/2020 at 2:07 PM, daylight said:

Hasty is a new lotto ticket I've added to my wallet.

Some good thoughts here:  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/786063-official-jamycal-hasty-sfo-rb-thread/

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Snell is a Conner injury away from being a top 15 back, as unlikely as that may be. He also ran well in game 1 and game 5.

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11 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

definitely add McNichols to the TEN list with Evans now on IR.

Thanks.   Is Evans expected back this season?  If so,  do we think he'd be the primary cuff again?

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13 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

:lmao:

for the benefit of others, the fantasy football podcaster 

 

You mentioned Cookie Gilchrist - that guy had an amazing life. Paul Brown tried for sign him to an illegal contract after his junior year, which was gonna make him ineligible to go back to school. So instead he went up to the CFL, going both ways and was an All Star for six years. Went to the new league (AFL) in 1962 and became their first 1K rusher, all star the first 4 years when he led the league rushing TDs 4 straight. So that’s 10 straight years of being an all star, won a Grey Cup and an AFL title. Madden said he wAs the most devastating blocking back he ever saw. Ended up playing for 8 CFL/AFL teams in 14 years, finally ending up in TC with the expansion Bengals - owned by Paul Brown.

Outspoken player who led a boycott against holding the AFL ASG in N’Orleans. Refused election to the CFL HoF bc they were racist af & treated him horribly in the 1950s. Dude’s life would make an awesome biography or movie.

Glad someone else remembers Cookie -- still have an Argos jersey of his. Agree his life would be an awesome 30 for 30 or some such retrospective. Growing up around the lake from Buffalo, always have a soft spot for them though I bleed Silver and Black -- still remember the ceremony where they inducted Cookie to the Bills Wall of Fame in a game against the Raiders a few years ago.

ETA: I think I recall he was also outspoken about CTE, and had donated his brain to a Canadian sports medical institution to study it.

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors
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9 minutes ago, Teef said:

Thanks.   Is Evans expected back this season?  If so,  do we think he'd be the primary cuff again?

i would assume that he is expected back, but he has been struggling with it for a couple of weeks and this seems like it may be somewhat serious.  as to whether he would be the primary cuff when/if he comes back is anyone's guess.

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47 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

definitely add McNichols to the TEN list with Evans now on IR.

Great call here. Have been very impressed with him the couple games where he has gotten work. Have him on my watch list but am going to do a preemptive add as soon as practical.

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4 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

definitely add McNichols to the TEN list with Evans now on IR.

added ty

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On 10/16/2020 at 7:57 AM, IHEARTFF said:

I think Jamaal Williams is the one to have right now if he's available. He's proven to do well when called upon and has top 5 upside if Jones gets hurt. Not much else jumping out at me as far as available options.

Jamaal might be in play... :popcorn:

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5 minutes ago, gruecd said:

Jamaal might be in play... :popcorn:

Aaron Jones GTD with a mild calf strain.  Packers tend to be quite conservative when it comes to injuries.

Jamaal Williams, please pick up the white courtesy phone...

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Coach Matt LaFleur said he's confident AJ Dillon can step up if Aaron Jones (calf) isn't able to play in Sunday's game against Houston, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/packers-aj-dillon-could-handle-expanded-role/

 

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Aaron Jones said he was confident he could play through calf strain in Houston, but #Packers aren’t expected to push him. The plan is for Jones to not play v Texans, per sources. Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon will have increased roles, and Dexter Williams was called up for depth.
https://twitter.com/ByRyanWood/status/1320127458293796864

 

The fact that they called up Dex Williams tells me that Jones is a definite no go - it’s Jamaal and AJ time.

I have visions of two rushing touchdowns for AJ but I’m a Packers fan so...

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Truly desperate at rb2. RB1 is Henry so that's worked alright so far.

McNichols, Carlos Hyde, d booker, or Ty Johnson?  I actually have Ty in right now as a what the heck. Thankfully the rest of the team is carrying that dead weight. I might go mcnichols just in case Henry needs a breather.

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