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Trying to get a handle on RB opportunity by team and relative chances for an RB1 season.  Please weigh in on the uncertain teams and thoughts one who will have the lion's share at the beginning of the year, at the end of the year, and/or have a good chance to move into a more favorable situation.  Also, tell me where I'm wrong about the other team situations in terms of their relative uncertainty.  This is less about lotto ticket RBs (shout out to @daylight) and more about real opportunity, especially trying to avoid early-round busts and mid-round values.

Teams with known starters: DAL, NYG, PHI, MIN, CAR, NO, AZ, SEA, ATL, NYJ, PIT, CIN, TEN, HOU, JAX, KC, LV, LAC

Teams with a likely starter, though more prone to time share/uncertainty: WSH (seems like ADP will be the volume back, at least to start), CHI (Montgomery), GB (Jones), TB (Jones),  BUF (Singletary?)

Teams that I am more unclear on:

NEP - Perpetually a nightmare to me.  Michel scares me.  White seems like a good play (especially in PPR obviously, but even in standard).  Harris would be a good value.

SF - another one that I always struggle with.  Is Mostert a safe start?  Feels like playing with fire. 

LAR - Cam Akers seems like a pretty good value at his current ADP, but McVay can be hard to pin down sometimes.

MIA -  Breida or Howard?  Similar ADPs, seems like a share.  Any sense on who is more likely to potentially take over (barring injury)?

BAL - Ingram did a nice job last year, but seems like more competition now with Dobbins and he is of course getting older.

CLE - Chubb is still going very high, but isn't Hunt a danger?  I'm seeing Hunt as RB29 and Chubb as RB7.  Is that really possible under the new regime?

DEN - How to suss out Gordon vs. Lindsay?

IND - I would like Taylor a lot as a value RB1, but his price is a little high with Mack looming.

 

 

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Great thread. My draft is tomorrow and have been looking at this all day. Any Miami fans have insight? That situation could have some value.

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SF - I've followed this. The beat writers all say Mostert is now 1A. He's put on weight and is the alpha in practice. My big question: Then why did Coleman essentially carry the weight last year against Minnesota in the playoffs until he got hurt? I'm skeptical, even though I'm a firm believer in Mostert. Waldman cheekily said if he got a chance he could surprise and lead the NFC in rushing yards. I'm inclined not to bag on Waldman, but to agree with him. The question is will he get 15-18 touches per game. Your guess is as good as mine.

NEP - Followed this also. Good luck figuring out what Belichick will do with his backfield. Anarchy99 is a font of wisdom about this in the Harris thread. Read he and pantherclub going back and forth about it. It's useful to read.

MIA - Howard is effectively better than JAG, Breida might be the fastest back in the NFL. I've followed this, too. It seems that Howard is actually the back to own at their similar ADP, but I personally can't shake the feeling that if given a true chance and if his ankles stay healthy Breida isn't the better back by a lot. PFF has him with three of the best five years in recent memory for a stat they call yards before contact, meaning nobody is touching him. It's not just the line, they argue. It's a testament to his quickness and vision.

BAL - Redraft and Baltimore is a very unhappy combination sentence for their backs. Nobody is going to be happy with how they operate, I think. My best guess is that Ingram, who showed up massively last year when called upon, holds on to the starting job and gets a few more carries than Dobbins per game. I think every fantasy fan will be unhappy with what goes down there this year.

CLE - Depends how the coaches use them. You can't know. Hunt is an undeniable talent, so is Chubb. Chubb might be the best pure running back in football.

DEN - How to suss it out? At first follow the money but be prepared for Lindsay to never go away. Like a little dog attached to your pant cuff, thus is Lindsay. Fangio and Elway strike me as guys that brought Gordon in to play, and play a lot, but I really think Lindsay forces them to split time 60/40. Lindsay is another guy that has one the five years I mentioned about yards before contact. He's fast and with great vision.

IND - It'll take a few weeks for Taylor to win that job, if he does, and even then his PPR ceiling is limited by Hines. I don't really like him at his ADP, which is in the forties. But it's better than David Johnson of the Texans. I suppose people are picking their poison.

LAR - Who knows about Akers as every time he moved there was an avalanche on him when he played for Fla. St.? I don't buy him personally, but who knows what having one of the worst lines in the country could cause one to do.

That's it bro. Keep in mind it's all my opinion and I'm not making decisions. Some people will not have their hand forced so talent exits the equation at times, other times they're receptive to the better back playing no matter what.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

 

Quote

SF - another one that I always struggle with.  Is Mostert a safe start?  Feels like playing with fire. 

first, solid thread - very helpful to consolidate / update. 

homer here. All the buzz is how good McKinnon looks. Shhhhhh, end of draft  bargain as a PPR flex play, but that backfield is going to be a mess for FF owners all year. Coleman isn’t going anywhere either. 

mostert’s monster playoffs left a little too much of an impression on the FF community IMO. He’s a flex play, not a RB2, and his production could have wild swings in what looks like a 3-headed monster. 

 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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13 minutes ago, rockaction said:

The question is will he get 15-18 touches per game. Your guess is as good as mine.

I’d put the O/U at 14

he can do a lot with those caries. He’ll have better and worse weeks. I think the Niners are a “hot hand” team. They love Coleman & they just paid McKinnon again. 

 

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1 minute ago, ponchsox said:

Bell is not safe for the Jets. 

Every arrow is pointing way way down. The only thing in his favor is the contract. 

Gore is outplaying him. He’s reported to looks slow (Rotoworld update today). He’s feuding with the HC on Twitter. I mean, c’mon. It literally couldn’t be worse for him.

Remember when the Steelers were unstoppable and everyone thought they were nuts to let AB & Bell go? Yeah...

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Posted (edited)

Great thread, thanks.
I really don’t understand why everyone is down on Aaron Jones this year. Just because of Dillon? If he wasn’t drafted would Jones be a mid to late 1st? You could take half of his 2019 rushing TDs away and he would still have been a top 6 RB in PPR leagues. He will still only be 25 years old for most of the season. I still consider him a known starter and he can definitely outperform his mid/late 2nd; that’s probably his floor (if healthy). GB is probably just preparing for losing Jones as this is his last year of rookie contract. For this year, Dillon will probably take Jamaal’s rushing points (the ~500 yds and  2-3 TDs averaged over the last 3 years) plus, ok maybe best case, also a handful of Jones’ TDs? Jones would still be a top 8-10 RB. What am I missing?!?

Edited by Shaunz33

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ponchsox said:

Bell is not safe for the Jets. 

Roto does this to everyone every year. Bell's 3rd down role is safe and he'll get the majority of the carries all year barring an injury. He's perfectly safe on that team. The team sucks though so his ceiling is low. 

Edited by Milkman
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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Shaunz33 said:

Great thread, thanks.
I really don’t understand why everyone is down on Aaron Jones this year. Just because of Dillon? If he wasn’t drafted would Jones be a mid to late 1st? You could take half of his 2019 rushing TDs away and he would still have been a top 6 RB in PPR leagues. He will still only be 25 years old for most of the season. I still consider him a known starter and he can definitely outperform his mid/late 2nd; that’s probably his floor (if healthy). GB is probably just preparing for losing Jones as this is his last year of rookie contract. For this year, Dillon will probably take Jamaal’s rushing points (the ~500 yds and  2-3 TDs averaged over the last 3 years) plus, ok maybe best case, also a handful of Jones’ TDs? Jones would still be a top 8-10 RB. What am I missing?!?

I suspect that part of it is a general malaise about the state of that offense. Green Bay came out of the draft with Aaron Rodgers’ replacement, a running back, and not a heckuva lot to help Aaron Rodgers.

so the general sentiment is to avoid the Green Bay offense. Aaron Jones of course gets hit with friendly fire over that assessment.

whether it’s true or not, I don’t know. But it certainly drove his ADP down from what probably would’ve been a top 8 pick had the Green Bay Packers drafted much differently.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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3 hours ago, ponchsox said:

Bell is not safe for the Jets. 

At $15 million, Bell will be playing 

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32 minutes ago, Shaunz33 said:

Great thread, thanks.
I really don’t understand why everyone is down on Aaron Jones this year. Just because of Dillon? If he wasn’t drafted would Jones be a mid to late 1st? You could take half of his 2019 rushing TDs away and he would still have been a top 6 RB in PPR leagues. He will still only be 25 years old for most of the season. I still consider him a known starter and he can definitely outperform his mid/late 2nd; that’s probably his floor (if healthy). GB is probably just preparing for losing Jones as this is his last year of rookie contract. For this year, Dillon will probably take Jamaal’s rushing points (the ~500 yds and  2-3 TDs averaged over the last 3 years) plus, ok maybe best case, also a handful of Jones’ TDs? Jones would still be a top 8-10 RB. What am I missing?!?

This might be an exaggeration. He just went RB12 in a Yahoo mock I just did. It's also his ADP on Fantasy Pros. Seems about right.

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2 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

This might be an exaggeration. He just went RB12 in a Yahoo mock I just did. It's also his ADP on Fantasy Pros. Seems about right.

Ok Yeah probably a bit...I guess I mean since he was RB#2 in total points last year. Just seems like a big drop on all rank lists. Would have thought some would have him RB6-8.. and in terms of this thread,  a “known starter”

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37 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

At $15 million, Bell will be playing 

Yep - that’s the only thing safe about him. It’s an ugly mess. And didn’t they just bring in Ballage? 

Insert ”but why” gif here.

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There are known knowns...that is...things we know that we know
There are also known unknowns...that is...there are things we know we don't know
And then, then there are the unknown unknowns...that is...the things we don't even know we don't know - Donald Rumsfeld, 2002 or so

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35 minutes ago, Stoneworker said:

This might be an exaggeration. He just went RB12 in a Yahoo mock I just did. It's also his ADP on Fantasy Pros. Seems about right.

People do silly things in mocks though. That’s definitely on the high end. 

better to look at his ADP.  Fantasy Football Calculator has him 2.04, with a high of 1.07 & a low of 4.05

While I doubt he hangs around to the 4th round, I’ve been mocking like crazy and he’s most typically a mid-to-late second, and occasionally makes it to the 2.12 turn. 

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1 hour ago, Shaunz33 said:

Great thread, thanks.
I really don’t understand why everyone is down on Aaron Jones this year. Just because of Dillon? If he wasn’t drafted would Jones be a mid to late 1st? You could take half of his 2019 rushing TDs away and he would still have been a top 6 RB in PPR leagues. He will still only be 25 years old for most of the season. I still consider him a known starter and he can definitely outperform his mid/late 2nd; that’s probably his floor (if healthy). GB is probably just preparing for losing Jones as this is his last year of rookie contract. For this year, Dillon will probably take Jamaal’s rushing points (the ~500 yds and  2-3 TDs averaged over the last 3 years) plus, ok maybe best case, also a handful of Jones’ TDs? Jones would still be a top 8-10 RB. What am I missing?!?

It's the drafting of Dillon and the natural thought that his TD's will regress. Bottomline is he is a stud. Given the lack of an offseason I don't expect Dillon to get a ton of action early. They don't have much as far as pass catchers after Adams so I'd expect Jones to get a bunch of targets. It appears the Packers wanna run a lot.  I've seen Jones go late second round which is fantastic. 

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5 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Trying to get a handle on RB opportunity by team and relative chances for an RB1 season.  Please weigh in on the uncertain teams and thoughts one who will have the lion's share at the beginning of the year, at the end of the year, and/or have a good chance to move into a more favorable situation.  Also, tell me where I'm wrong about the other team situations in terms of their relative uncertainty.  This is less about lotto ticket RBs (shout out to @daylight) and more about real opportunity, especially trying to avoid early-round busts and mid-round values.

Teams with known starters: DAL, NYG, PHI, MIN, CAR, NO, AZ, SEA, ATL, NYJ, PIT, CIN, TEN, HOU, JAX, KC, LV, LAC

Teams with a likely starter, though more prone to time share/uncertainty: WSH (seems like ADP will be the volume back, at least to start), CHI (Montgomery), GB (Jones), TB (Jones),  BUF (Singletary?)

Teams that I am more unclear on:

NEP - Perpetually a nightmare to me.  Michel scares me.  White seems like a good play (especially in PPR obviously, but even in standard).  Harris would be a good value.

SF - another one that I always struggle with.  Is Mostert a safe start?  Feels like playing with fire. 

LAR - Cam Akers seems like a pretty good value at his current ADP, but McVay can be hard to pin down sometimes.

MIA -  Breida or Howard?  Similar ADPs, seems like a share.  Any sense on who is more likely to potentially take over (barring injury)?

BAL - Ingram did a nice job last year, but seems like more competition now with Dobbins and he is of course getting older.

CLE - Chubb is still going very high, but isn't Hunt a danger?  I'm seeing Hunt as RB29 and Chubb as RB7.  Is that really possible under the new regime?

DEN - How to suss out Gordon vs. Lindsay?

IND - I would like Taylor a lot as a value RB1, but his price is a little high with Mack looming.

 

 

NEP - Harris seems like a nice dart throw late in drafts. I wouldn't reach though. Cam will vulture a bunch of TD's. 

BAL - Ingram does his job every year. He has stayed pretty healthy as well. Dobbins could be a league winner if Ingram went down. Gus Edwards is no slouch.

CLE - I'd prefer getting Hunt in the 5th. He has decent stand alone value and incredible upside if Chubb went down. 

DEN - I think 60/40 sounds about right Gordon to Lindsay. I think Gordon will get almost all of the pass catching. Lindsay is a tiny guy and can't be trusted to block. I think I read a stat where he was only asked to pass protect 4 times last year. I have heard very good things about Lindsay from camp. 

IND - The problem with Taylor is when does he surpass Mack. Mack has improved every year. Taylor has superstar potential. It's unknown how good of a pass catcher he will be but he has one of the best dump off QB's out there.  Hines is gonna get a ton of catches. I'm hesitant to spend a highish pick on a guy who may not breakout right away in what could be a C19 shortened year. If he fell to the 5th I would love him as my number 3 back.

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18 minutes ago, Mongidig said:

IND - The problem with Taylor is when does he surpass Mack. Mack has improved every year. Taylor has superstar potential. It's unknown how good of a pass catcher he will be but he has one of the best dump off QB's out there.  Hines is gonna get a ton of catches. I'm hesitant to spend a highish pick on a guy who may not breakout right away in what could be a C19 shortened year. If he fell to the 5th I would love him as my number 3 back.

Twitter is ablaze today about Taylor's drops in practice on catchable balls. He's dropped like four over the past few days. That means Nyheim Hines will have a role even if Taylor does win the starting gig.

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53 minutes ago, Mongidig said:

I've seen Jones go late second round which is fantastic. 

Picking 1.03 next Friday I’ve seen this a few times in mocks and it’s really hard to pass him up at 2.10

I really like the WRs there but man. 

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21 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Twitter is ablaze today about Taylor's drops in practice on catchable balls. He's dropped like four over the past few days. That means Nyheim Hines will have a role even if Taylor does win the starting gig.

I’m so down on that backfield. Hines seems like the PPR bargain. 

Impossible to predict the Mack/Taylor workload. Obviously Taylor is the more pedigreed/talented guy. Even Mack was raving about him in a recent article. 

but that backfield is looking a little like the 49ers. Hot hand, 3-way RBBC where Taylor & Mack split early down carries & Hines catches the ball. For FF that’s a mess.

I’ve read a lot of presumption that Taylor takes over by mid-season, but unfortunately the Indy coaches make that call, not fantasy writers. 

at his ADP of 4.04 (high of 2.04, low of 5.10) I’m out on Taylor. I’ll let someone else draft him on a wing and a prayer. 

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’ll let someone else draft him on a wing and a prayer. 

Same here. Dobbins is in the same boat. Great talents, maybe not this year.

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8 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Same here. Dobbins is in the same boat. Great talents, maybe not this year.

I marvel at some of the write-ups that wax thoughtfully about “when player X takes over a full-time role” - c’mon man. Ease up Ms Cleo, I’m tryna draft a team & you’re driving up this dude’s ADP. 
 

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2 hours ago, Shaunz33 said:

Great thread, thanks.
I really don’t understand why everyone is down on Aaron Jones this year. Just because of Dillon? If he wasn’t drafted would Jones be a mid to late 1st? You could take half of his 2019 rushing TDs away and he would still have been a top 6 RB in PPR leagues. He will still only be 25 years old for most of the season. I still consider him a known starter and he can definitely outperform his mid/late 2nd; that’s probably his floor (if healthy). GB is probably just preparing for losing Jones as this is his last year of rookie contract. For this year, Dillon will probably take Jamaal’s rushing points (the ~500 yds and  2-3 TDs averaged over the last 3 years) plus, ok maybe best case, also a handful of Jones’ TDs? Jones would still be a top 8-10 RB. What am I missing?!?

Depends on format,, but I think Jones is in my top 10. Just no good reason to drop him further. 

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I get why I'm in the minority, but I really want shares of Taylor.  Mack has improved statistically each of the last 3 years, but Waldman had an article recently breaking down RB's relative to Oline reliance, and he has Mack as one who is line dependent.  I read an article elsewhere that kinda made it sound like Mack is a guy who gets what's there, but nothing special.  When I read how good that OLine is, and figure that behind it Mack has been getting what is there, and then imagine what a guy like Taylor might get... I am on board with those who think that once that genie is out of the bottle, there will be no returning it.  It's a gamble, but where Taylor is going, most of those RB's start to have question marks.  I'll bet on the great Oline, the immense skill, and the good but not great RB he has to surpass to become to primary ball carrier. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Yep - that’s the only thing safe about him. It’s an ugly mess. And didn’t they just bring in Ballage? 

Insert ”but why” gif here.

Don’t forget Perine, the camp reports I have seen have all been positive. When ( if) they start losing they have no incentive to play Bell. His contact has a pretty decent out for the Jets in 2021

Edited by JoeSteeler
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20 minutes ago, Mene said:

I get why I'm in the minority, but I really want shares of Taylor.  Mack has improved statistically each of the last 3 years, but Waldman had an article recently breaking down RB's relative to Oline reliance, and he has Mack as one who is line dependent.  I read an article elsewhere that kinda made it sound like Mack is a guy who gets what's there, but nothing special.  When I read how good that OLine is, and figure that behind it Mack has been getting what is there, and then imagine what a guy like Taylor might get... I am on board with those who think that once that genie is out of the bottle, there will be no returning it.  It's a gamble, but where Taylor is going, most of those RB's start to have question marks.  I'll bet on the great Oline, the immense skill, and the good but not great RB he has to surpass to become to primary ball carrier. 

His ADP is way too rich for me being a non-starter in a timeshare plus he’s having problems catching the ball in camp. I’ll gladly pass on him at his range in redraft.

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10 minutes ago, JoeSteeler said:

Don’t forget Perine, the camp reports I have seen have all been positive. When ( if) they start losing they have no incentive to play Bell. His contact has a pretty decent out for the Jets in 2021

It’s such a bad situation that I want nothing to do with. 

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27 minutes ago, Mene said:

i’ll bet on the great Oline, the immense skill, and the good but not great RB he has to surpass to become to primary ball carrier. 

All fair points, but even if we’re talking best case scenario, Hines is still getting the lions share of receptions. So for PPR it’s hard to love him with a 4th round pick. 

This is a perfect example of why not having a preseason makes guys like Taylor so boom or bust. If we had a preseason, that seismic shift may have already happened. 

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Posted (edited)

Thanks folks, keep it coming.

i forgot to add DET at the end, which also feels like kind of a cluster#### to me.

Edited by Long Ball Larry
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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

All fair points, but even if we’re talking best case scenario, Hines is still getting the lions share of receptions. So for PPR it’s hard to love him with a 4th round pick. 

This is a perfect example of why not having a preseason makes guys like Taylor so boom or bust. If we had a preseason, that seismic shift may have already happened. 

I agree with Hines, love him as a ppr value pick.

The Colts had 399 RB rushing attempts last year.  I think it's reasonable to expect something similar, if not more if you buy in to them being better this year than last year.  There is plenty of room (perfect world here, not projecting injuries) for 250 for Taylor, 100-125 for Mack, and 25-50 for Hines.  They also had 56 rushing attempts by Brissett, which we can safely assume with Rivers will be greatly reduced, and likely account for some of the increased RB receptions.

If Taylor truly surpasses Mack, with that OLine, would something like...

Taylor 250/1200/12 & 20/150/?

Mack 125/550/3 & 10/80/?

Hines 40/190/1 & 75/575/?

...be all that shocking, and still produce your predicted Hines PPR value, while still allowing Taylor to be plenty valuable in PPR?  None of those numbers, as far as total carries, yardage, or TD's are far from last year, and again, they are expected to be improved as a team this year.  The RB receptions are boosted, but that is expected, with the change in QB's.

Again, not necessarily trying to convince anyone, but just kinda laying out my optimism for Taylor, assuming he does overtake Mack, and showing numbers that are reasonable that make it worth it.

 

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4 minutes ago, Mene said:

I agree with Hines, love him as a ppr value pick.

The Colts had 399 RB rushing attempts last year.  I think it's reasonable to expect something similar, if not more if you buy in to them being better this year than last year.  There is plenty of room (perfect world here, not projecting injuries) for 250 for Taylor, 100-125 for Mack, and 25-50 for Hines.  They also had 56 rushing attempts by Brissett, which we can safely assume with Rivers will be greatly reduced, and likely account for some of the increased RB receptions.

If Taylor truly surpasses Mack, with that OLine, would something like...

Taylor 250/1200/12 & 20/150/?

Mack 125/550/3 & 10/80/?

Hines 40/190/1 & 75/575/?

...be all that shocking, and still produce your predicted Hines PPR value, while still allowing Taylor to be plenty valuable in PPR?  None of those numbers, as far as total carries, yardage, or TD's are far from last year, and again, they are expected to be improved as a team this year.  The RB receptions are boosted, but that is expected, with the change in QB's.

Again, not necessarily trying to convince anyone, but just kinda laying out my optimism for Taylor, assuming he does overtake Mack, and showing numbers that are reasonable that make it worth it.

 

It's a good take. If Rivers returns to 30/12 form, I like it. 

And if Rivers throws 20+ Ints, I'm not sure that many opportunities will be present. 

I'm not sure if Rivers made terrible decisions or stopped caring or both in SD, but whatever the case, he was pretty awful. He has thrown 20 Ints or more 3x now including last season. When he's throwing 32 TDs that isn't as bad (though it is definitely still no good very bad) but when he's in the 20 TDs range, a 20 Int season is downright terrible.  

So I guess I can go with what you have above if Rivers is a 30+/12-16 Int guy,. But if he's a a 20+, 17-20 Int guy, those interceptions play hell with gameflow & continuity. Didn't hurt Ekeler, since Rivers became checkdown charlie but it could hurt Taylor/Mack. 

Also, it begs the question from the Colts side of things...did the Colts run that much last year because Brissett wasn't good, or is that actually their identity?  I recall the colts being a little more pass-oriented with Luck. 2016 Gore/Mack, they ran the ball 374x, including 64 by Luck.  I assume many of those were not designed runs, so I'm not going to just give those to the RBs. Let's say a generous 15 of them were designed QB runs (sneaks count I believe) That's 325 carries between Mack, Taylor & Hines. 

Using your % breakdown that'd be something like

203 carries for Taylor (62.6%)

100 carries for Mack (31&)

~33 carries for Hines (10%)

We'll say Rivers has a couple sneaks and won't include it here. 

I would consider that more realistic if Rivers is passing more than Brissett, which I have to believe he will be. And if Taylor eats 63% of the workload. 

Anyway, I'm getting in the weeds, and don't want to derail the topic, but the challenge for me is that I don't know exactly who Rivers is right now, or more importantly how the Colts will utilize him.

One thing is for certain - the Colts are the team I most wish we had a preseason to watch. So much talent, so little clarity. 

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55 minutes ago, Mene said:

I agree with Hines, love him as a ppr value pick.

The Colts had 399 RB rushing attempts last year.  I think it's reasonable to expect something similar, if not more if you buy in to them being better this year than last year.  There is plenty of room (perfect world here, not projecting injuries) for 250 for Taylor, 100-125 for Mack, and 25-50 for Hines.  They also had 56 rushing attempts by Brissett, which we can safely assume with Rivers will be greatly reduced, and likely account for some of the increased RB receptions.

If Taylor truly surpasses Mack, with that OLine, would something like...

Taylor 250/1200/12 & 20/150/?

Mack 125/550/3 & 10/80/?

Hines 40/190/1 & 75/575/?

...be all that shocking, and still produce your predicted Hines PPR value, while still allowing Taylor to be plenty valuable in PPR?  None of those numbers, as far as total carries, yardage, or TD's are far from last year, and again, they are expected to be improved as a team this year.  The RB receptions are boosted, but that is expected, with the change in QB's.

Again, not necessarily trying to convince anyone, but just kinda laying out my optimism for Taylor, assuming he does overtake Mack, and showing numbers that are reasonable that make it worth it.

 

This is a fantastic post and the one below it is good too. Although if the Colts were running more because Brisset wasn’t that good/trustworthy than if Rivers is better you’d presume they’d throw more % wise but also sustain more drives, run more plays, score more, and play from ahead more. Game flow will hurt Taylor but I anticipate the Colts being pretty good this year. And he’s a hoss, if he starts racking up carries behind that OL he could win some leagues.

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14 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

This is a fantastic post and the one below it is good too. Although if the Colts were running more because Brisset wasn’t that good/trustworthy than if Rivers is better you’d presume they’d throw more % wise but also sustain more drives, run more plays, score more, and play from ahead more. Game flow will hurt Taylor but I anticipate the Colts being pretty good this year. And he’s a hoss, if he starts racking up carries behind that OL he could win some leagues.

Not disagreeing, but would suggest another possible conclusion that if they're throwing more and Rivers is throwing more picks,  that could result in negative game scripts as well. That's the mystery to me. What is Rivers right now? Look over his career stats the last 4-5 years . The swings are wild.  Is he a 30+ TD guy or a 20-ish TD guy? Is he a 12 Int guy or is he a 20+ Int guy. 

IMO that makes a difference in how productive the Colts are all around.  It's hard to predict. 

I know a lot of folks hate Rivers - I like the dude. Plays hard, cares a lot. Gets angry, plays angry. He's kind of a Jeff Kent of the NFL. Total red a**. But man, when he's on, dude is good.  They have weapons as well. I'm high on both Pittman & Campbell so long as Rivers is good. 

But will he be? No idea. 

 :wall:

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not disagreeing, but would suggest another possible conclusion that if they're throwing more and Rivers is throwing more picks,  that could result in negative game scripts as well. That's the mystery to me. What is Rivers right now? Look over his career stats the last 4-5 years . The swings are wild.  Is he a 30+ TD guy or a 20-ish TD guy? Is he a 12 Int guy or is he a 20+ Int guy. 

IMO that makes a difference in how productive the Colts are all around.  It's hard to predict. 

I know a lot of folks hate Rivers - I like the dude. Plays hard, cares a lot. Gets angry, plays angry. He's kind of a Jeff Kent of the NFL. Total red a**. But man, when he's on, dude is good.  They have weapons as well. I'm high on both Pittman & Campbell so long as Rivers is good. 

But will he be? No idea. 

 :wall:

But then if he is chucking picks left and right they’d be more apt to hide him as theorized with Brisset and run the ball more! I always imagine gets angry all the time because he has a zillion daughters who prob drive him crazy and he has to pay for all those future weddings.

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One other note - it's not an ideal comp because of the way the Ravens play offense, but Mark Ingram was right around that 200 carry mark and had a very productive, certainly RB2-caliber season. 

So if that's Taylor's floor, he won't hurt you, but it's a little early for my taste in the 4th. I've seen him slide to the 5th about half the time in mocks where i like him more.

if @Cobbler1 & @Mene's upside numbers hit, he will indeed be well worth his draft position & will have RB1 upside from the 4th.

Damn you, no preseason! (shakes fist)  

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3 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

I always imagine gets angry all the time because he has a zillion daughters who prob drive him crazy and he has to pay for all those future weddings.

:lol: 

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

One other note - it's not an ideal comp because of the way the Ravens play offense, but Mark Ingram was right around that 200 carry mark and had a very productive, certainly RB2-caliber season. 

So if that's Taylor's floor, he won't hurt you, but it's a little early for my taste in the 4th. I've seen him slide to the 5th about half the time in mocks where i like him more.

if @Cobbler1 & @Mene's upside numbers hit, he will indeed be well worth his draft position & will have RB1 upside from the 4th.

Damn you, no preseason! (shakes fist)  

If a high end rb2 season is his floor you smash that in the 4th every time. I have no doubt that he’s a vastly superior runner to Mack but if he fumbles early and often he won’t get to show it so I do see significant risk. And there’s the chance he starts off like Chubb did in Cleveland. Mack in the Hyde role, Hines in the Duke role, and it took several weeks and then a trade for Cleveland to use Chubb. I sense that’s not the case but it’s not out of the realm. 
 

Since Bmore/Ingram were brought up, I love Dobbins also. I think there’s a good chance he and Ingram split 400 carries with Dobbins getting more and more down the stretch. And he is more than capable as receiver also. He’s going Rb31 currently.

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Montgomery is expected to be out 2-4 weeks from about 5 days ago. It's possible he could play vs. Detroit, but you have to question how many carries he would get if his practice is limited. It would make more sense for the Bears to let him fully heal vs. him coming back at less than 100% and then dealing with it for the first half of the season. The one downside is that Nagy **may** be more committed to establishing a running game this season with the revamping of the offensive coaching staff although the line remains the same. 

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4 hours ago, cubd8 said:

Montgomery is expected to be out 2-4 weeks from about 5 days ago. It's possible he could play vs. Detroit, but you have to question how many carries he would get if his practice is limited. It would make more sense for the Bears to let him fully heal vs. him coming back at less than 100% and then dealing with it for the first half of the season. The one downside is that Nagy **may** be more committed to establishing a running game this season with the revamping of the offensive coaching staff although the line remains the same. 

I realize injury creates opportunity, but man, groins are tricky. 

a 2-4 week groin strain could well heal up & have no effect on his game. Or it could hamper Montgomery all season.

Also players with groin strains can’t run, or really do anything strenuous during that layoff. Part of the excitement about Montgomery was the 12-15 lbs he’d dropped in the off-season. I’m thinking he might find it again while being shut down for 4 weeks. 

at some point he’ll come back and help someone’s team this year. Unless there’s a steep, steep injury discount, it won’t be mine.  Unfortunately it looks like his ADP is still in the single digits, which at this point feels like am overpay.  

From August 21-29,  5.09 is the latest. Around that ADP I should be able to get players like RoJo, Hunt, Scary Terry, Marquis Brown - just too much healthy talent on the board to take a hurt Montgomery. 

If he slides to the 9-10th By next weekend on the injury I might be interested, but it’s a very risky pick. At that price I’d be passing on lesser talent, but I’d also be praying he’s healthY/conditioned enough by the time my other RBs have the BYE. 

Keep an eye out to see if the Bears pick up a FA RB before the start of the season, too. If they do, it’s probably not at the 2-week end of the estimate. 

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

Where does Lamar Miller fit in with the a Patriots?

Where does anyone fit in with the Patriots?Miller signed so late on free agency that some people felt he would be a camp body and probably be released if he looked slow or otherwise not 100%. However, he’s been on the PUP list and like Michel I had heard he was almost ready to come off of it. That hasn’t happened yet, and that makes me scratch my head wondering why did NE sign him if he isn’t ready to play? Maybe Harris has shown enough to make Miller expendable, but at this point there is no telling what their plan is for Miller. IIRC, team have until next weekend to submit their initial rosters. At this point, I would guess they keep him on the PUP list and he will miss the first 6 games. 

BB mentioned last week about Miller that teams are always trying to bring in quality players and add depth. LINK

Edited by Anarchy99
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12 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

Picking 1.03 next Friday I’ve seen this a few times in mocks and it’s really hard to pass him up at 2.10

I really like the WRs there but man. 

Picking 1.5 in an upcoming draft, and Jones won't pass me on the way back if he makes it that far.  

I heard him described on a podcast recently (can't remember which one) as the perfect bridge back.  He may not be a true RB1 in fantasy given the expected regression in TDs and yards, but man he's a lot better than the RB2s.  I'd love to land him after getting a stud RB in the top-5 (which, with the Cook and Mixon situations is its own bag of mess these days, but at least I'll have my pick after the expected CMC, Saquon, Zeke, and Kamara).

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Mene said:

I get why I'm in the minority, but I really want shares of Taylor.  Mack has improved statistically each of the last 3 years, but Waldman had an article recently breaking down RB's relative to Oline reliance, and he has Mack as one who is line dependent.  I read an article elsewhere that kinda made it sound like Mack is a guy who gets what's there, but nothing special.  When I read how good that OLine is, and figure that behind it Mack has been getting what is there, and then imagine what a guy like Taylor might get... I am on board with those who think that once that genie is out of the bottle, there will be no returning it.  It's a gamble, but where Taylor is going, most of those RB's start to have question marks.  I'll bet on the great Oline, the immense skill, and the good but not great RB he has to surpass to become to primary ball carrier. 

This !!

Had Mack as my RB2 last year. Have Sunday Ticket so I watched most of the Colts games (at least when he was healthy and the Colts had the ball). Take a look at Mack's game logs. Most of his good games came against mediocre opponents. Against the better teams, he was so-so at best. Mack is a decent back who benefits from running behind THE best run blocking O-line in football. Put Taylor behind that line and watch the magic. I genuinely believe this is Taylor's backfield by week 3. 

Edited by Keith1
typo

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To those who think the money is going to guarantee Bell playing time, I’d think twice. Gase has never been on board with Bell and Bell clearly buys the public perception that Gase is a garbage coach (he is). They don’t get along and Gase is probably coaching for his job this year. Nobody is safe on that team and Bell with all the bad blood. I could see him splitting time as soon as week 3 if the team struggles (which they will) and possibly getting healthy scratched if he and Gase get into it over that.

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21 minutes ago, gabes1919 said:

To those who think the money is going to guarantee Bell playing time, I’d think twice. Gase has never been on board with Bell and Bell clearly buys the public perception that Gase is a garbage coach (he is). They don’t get along and Gase is probably coaching for his job this year. Nobody is safe on that team and Bell with all the bad blood. I could see him splitting time as soon as week 3 if the team struggles (which they will) and possibly getting healthy scratched if he and Gase get into it over that.

If the Johnsons or Douglas tell Gase that Bell is playing, then what?

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44 minutes ago, gabes1919 said:

I could see him splitting time as soon as week 3 if the team struggles (which they will) and possibly getting healthy scratched if he and Gase get into it over that.

Rotoworld has been reporting for a few days that Bell & Gore will split carries as “Gase wants to keep Bell fresh”. Today they reported a likely 60/40 split. 

So perhaps not the boldest of predictions. :) 

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44 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

Rotoworld has been reporting for a few days that Bell & Gore will split carries as “Gase wants to keep Bell fresh”. Today they reported a likely 60/40 split. 

So perhaps not the boldest of predictions. :) 

Fair enough but I do think we see Bell scratched at some point this year because equal parts of poor play (that may not be entirely his fault) and personal feud with Gase

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1 minute ago, gabes1919 said:

Fair enough but I do think we see Bell scratched at some point this year because equal parts of poor play (that may not be entirely his fault) and personal feud with Gase

If I’m very fortunate I won’t have to watch or care about any Jets games to find out. ;) 

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Haven't read through but what's the story in INDY?

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