What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

How confident are you, today, in the results of the 2020 presidential election - August 30 edition (1 Viewer)

How confident are you, today, in the results of the 2020 presidential election

  • 1 - Total Fraud, no confidence at all in the results that will be reported

    Votes: 5 5.2%

  • 2

    Votes: 9 9.4%

  • 3 - The results will probably be accurate

    Votes: 29 30.2%

  • 4

    Votes: 21 21.9%

  • 5 - Complete confidence in the results that will be reported

    Votes: 30 31.3%

  • Q - I need to see who wins before I decide if I am confident in the results

    Votes: 2 2.1%
  • Total voters
    96
The Gator

The Gator

Footballguy
Previous poll

I am becoming increasingly less confident that we can pull off an honest election in November.  

Whether it is the constant legal challenges to mail votes by the Trump campaign, or the fact that the mail itself is so screwed up right now, or the threat of diminished in-person voting because of Covid concerns, or the expected legal challenges by both parties leading up to and after the election.

The chances of us "knowing" the winner on November 3 seems quite low, and the longer it takes to sort itself out, the less confidence I will have - that this is an election, and not a litigation.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Gator said:
Previous poll

I am becoming increasingly less confident that we can pull off an honest election in November.  

Whether it is the constant legal challenges to mail votes by the Trump campaign, or the fact that the mail itself is so screwed up right now, or the threat of diminished in-person voting because of Covid concerns, or the expected legal challenges by both parties leading up to and after the election.

The chances of us "knowing" the winner on November 3 seems quite low, and the longer it takes to sort itself out, the less confidence I will have - that this is an election, and not a litigation.
Click to expand...
There's no question that we probably won't know on Nov 3, but that's not a cause for concern IMO.  With all the absentee ballots and mail in ballots that will be utilized, they aren't going to be able to predict, with confidence, purely from the "in person" voting.  It's going to take a while.  Everyone should understand that fact right now and not be freaked out when it takes longer than normal.  

 
As an engineer who understands systems, if we shotgun out 250M ballots and attempt to retrieve them without 50+ systems to do so, let alone preserve the integrity of the votes, I have roughly 0.0% confidence in this election.

 
JerryG said:
As an engineer who understands systems, if we shotgun out 250M ballots and attempt to retrieve them without 50+ systems to do so, let alone preserve the integrity of the votes, I have roughly 0.0% confidence in this election.
Click to expand...
How would you engineer an appropriate election process in the midst of a pandemic?

 
The Commish said:
There's no question that we probably won't know on Nov 3, but that's not a cause for concern IMO.  With all the absentee ballots and mail in ballots that will be utilized, they aren't going to be able to predict, with confidence, purely from the "in person" voting.  It's going to take a while.  Everyone should understand that fact right now and not be freaked out when it takes longer than normal.  
Click to expand...
I actually think there is some cause for concern here.  Because everything I’ve read suggest that Trump voters are less likely to vote by mail than Biden voters.  If that holds up, the election night results will look very positive for Trump.  The networks won’t call it but Trump will say he won.  Then when mail ballots show Biden cutting into his lead or passing him, Trump and his supporters will scream that the election is being stolen from him.

 
JerryG said:
As an engineer who understands systems, if we shotgun out 250M ballots and attempt to retrieve them without 50+ systems to do so, let alone preserve the integrity of the votes, I have roughly 0.0% confidence in this election.
Click to expand...
Since there is only about 155 million registered voters I agree 250 million ballots would be a problem. 

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
I actually think there is some cause for concern here.  Because everything I’ve read suggest that Trump voters are less likely to vote by mail than Biden voters.  If that holds up, the election night results will look very positive for Trump.  The networks won’t call it but Trump will say he won.  Then when mail ballots show Biden cutting into his lead or passing him, Trump and his supporters will scream that the election is being stolen from him.
Click to expand...
I think this is a real possibility. 

 
There will be no difference in this election than in the past.  Most states will have a clear winner and 1 or 2 may drag on till late nights.  As far as the mail in ballots, most will send in early do to the mail being slowed down. 

 
greenroom said:
There will be no difference in this election than in the past.  Most states will have a clear winner and 1 or 2 may drag on till late nights.  As far as the mail in ballots, most will send in early do to the mail being slowed down. 
Click to expand...
It's less about receiving the mail in ballots and more about counting them.  

 
A top Democratic operative says voter fraud, especially with mail-in ballots, is no myth. And he knows this because he’s been doing it, on a grand scale, for decades.

Mail-in ballots have become the latest flashpoint in the 2020 elections. While President Trump and the GOP warn of widespread manipulation of the absentee vote that will swell with COVID polling restrictions, many Democrats and their media allies have dismissed such concerns as unfounded.

But the political insider, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he fears prosecution, said fraud is more the rule than the exception. His dirty work has taken him through the weeds of municipal and federal elections in Paterson, Atlantic City, Camden, Newark, Hoboken and Hudson County and his fingerprints can be found in local legislative, mayoral and congressional races across the Garden State. Some of the biggest names and highest office holders in New Jersey have benefited from his tricks, according to campaign records The Post reviewed.


“An election that is swayed by 500 votes, 1,000 votes — it can make a difference,” the tipster said. “It could be enough to flip states.”
Click to expand...



https://nypost.com/2020/08/29/political-insider-explains-voter-fraud-with-mail-in-ballots/amp/

 
Mile High said:
Since there is only about 155 million registered voters I agree 250 million ballots would be a problem. 
Click to expand...
Don't forget the dead people, people with multiple residences, and people who've moved but haven't been scrubbed from the system.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
I actually think there is some cause for concern here.  Because everything I’ve read suggest that Trump voters are less likely to vote by mail than Biden voters.  If that holds up, the election night results will look very positive for Trump.  The networks won’t call it but Trump will say he won.  Then when mail ballots show Biden cutting into his lead or passing him, Trump and his supporters will scream that the election is being stolen from him.
Click to expand...
Good for him I guess.  I don't see why it's a problem to get out in front of this and cut the narrative off though.  Spell out to everyone exactly what's going to happen so there is no surprise.  I'm pretty confident his base will scream it's rigged regardless.  Not much can be done about that.

 
Terminalxylem said:
How would you engineer an appropriate election process in the midst of a pandemic?
Click to expand...
The snarky answer is I would call all polling places BLM mostly peaceful protests, because apparently those are magical unicorn events where thousands of people can cram together and nobody is concerned about Covid.

The more practical answer would have been to have each state expand their absentee system to include no-cause ballots (which is still a large system change).  I'd have done it back in April to have any shot of testing the system.  

Then again Fauci says there is no reason people can't vote in person, so by far the best solution at this point is to change nothing.

 
JerryG said:
Don't forget the dead people, people with multiple residences, and people who've moved but haven't been scrubbed from the system.
Click to expand...
And I am to assume that ballots will be cast on behalf of this group of people you’ve identified?

How many do you figure?

 
JerryG said:
The snarky answer is I would call all polling places BLM mostly peaceful protests, because apparently those are magical unicorn events where thousands of people can cram together and nobody is concerned about Covid.

The more practical answer would have been to have each state expand their absentee system to include no-cause ballots (which is still a large system change).  I'd have done it back in April to have any shot of testing the system.  

Then again Fauci says there is no reason people can't vote in person, so by far the best solution at this point is to change nothing.
Click to expand...
 Fauci said voting could happen safely if people maintained appropriate distancing, wore a mask, washed their hands and avoided crowds. What do you think the likelihood all those occur with in-person voting? Do you think eligible voters will not vote due to COVID concerns?

Since April has long passed, what do you recommend we do now to ensure a safe and accurate election?

 
Terminalxylem said:
 Fauci said voting could happen safely if people maintained appropriate distancing, wore a mask, washed their hands and avoided crowds. What do you think the likelihood all those occur with in-person voting? Do you think eligible voters will not vote due to COVID concerns?

Since April has long passed, what do you recommend we do now to ensure a safe and accurate election?
Click to expand...
I recommend keeping the current system, providing masks for those who don't have them, doing what can be done for social distancing, and accepting the fact that a handful of people may get Covid and a thimbleful may die.  Somehow we've gone from "flattening the curve" to "zero cases" as the goal, which is unrealistic.

 
zoonation said:
And I am to assume that ballots will be cast on behalf of this group of people you’ve identified?

How many do you figure?
Click to expand...
Some will.  Some ballot harvesting will occur.  Some dual votes will happen and the states will have no systems in place to find them.  The USPS will lose some (as they do absentee ballots, but there are more of them).

I suppose if we presume it will take a few months, we can try to power through all of this manually and hope to catch most of them.  Or we can stick with the current system.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
It's less about receiving the mail in ballots and more about counting them.  
Click to expand...
The mail in ballots in AZ tend to get reported first as they get processed as they are received. Then the in-person votes. Then the mail-in ballots that people dropped off instead of mailing, plus undercounts (when people voted for fewer candidates than allowed.) So, the phenomenon here is Dems catching up as days go by.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
JerryG said:
I recommend keeping the current system, providing masks for those who don't have them, doing what can be done for social distancing, and accepting the fact that a handful of people may get Covid and a thimbleful may die.  Somehow we've gone from "flattening the curve" to "zero cases" as the goal, which is unrealistic.
Click to expand...
The primary issue with "keeping the current system" will be that most poll workers in a typical year are high-risk for COVID, meaning many/most of them will decline to volunteer this year.  That will lead to a significant shortage of poll workers, which will lead to closures of polling locations, which will lead to unacceptable wait times and/or outright impossibilities regarding in-person voting.  How should we rectify that situation?  When answering, we should consider that none of this is new or a surprise, and it has all been entirely obvious and predictable since March.

 
McBokonon said:
The mail in ballots in AZ tend to get reported first as they get processed as they are received. Then the in-person votes. Then the mail-in ballots that people dropped off instead of mailing, plus undercounts (when people voted for fewer candidates than allowed.) So, the phenomenon here is Dems catching up as days go by.
Click to expand...
By the way, this has always been the case, but since Republicans tended to win by large margins nobody really paid attention until 2018 when Dems started winning races so naturally the AZGOP said it was fraud and a conspiracy.

 
Rich Conway said:
The primary issue with "keeping the current system" will be that most poll workers in a typical year are high-risk for COVID, meaning many/most of them will decline to volunteer this year.  That will lead to a significant shortage of poll workers, which will lead to closures of polling locations, which will lead to unacceptable wait times and/or outright impossibilities regarding in-person voting.  How should we rectify that situation?  When answering, we should consider that none of this is new or a surprise, and it has all been entirely obvious and predictable since March.
Click to expand...
We could pay people to do it?

Also I don't understand your last sentence, as I've already stated that any change in the system should have begun months ago.

 
JerryG said:
We could pay people to do it?

Also I don't understand your last sentence, as I've already stated that any change in the system should have begun months ago.
Click to expand...
We could, although that wouldn't qualify, at least to me, as "keeping the current system".  If we could ensure, via paying poll workers, that polling locations are adequately staffed and that in-person voting can be provided in a manner such that voters won't have unreasonable wait times (personally, I would define that as "more than 15 minutes"), then I would likely be fine with that.  However, seeing that the country is not, in fact, doing that, what should our fallback plan be?

Re: the last sentence, that wasn't as much to you specifically as to the general message board, as there have been lots of histrionic comments along the lines of "we can't change at this late date, 2 months before the election".

 
Rich Conway said:
We could, although that wouldn't qualify, at least to me, as "keeping the current system".  If we could ensure, via paying poll workers, that polling locations are adequately staffed and that in-person voting can be provided in a manner such that voters won't have unreasonable wait times (personally, I would define that as "more than 15 minutes"), then I would likely be fine with that.  However, seeing that the country is not, in fact, doing that, what should our fallback plan be?

Re: the last sentence, that wasn't as much to you specifically as to the general message board, as there have been lots of histrionic comments along the lines of "we can't change at this late date, 2 months before the election".
Click to expand...
The system has mechanisms for training new people, so in the giant scheme of changes, it doesn't strike me as large of a change as shotgun blasting nine figures worth of ballots out there.

You bring up an interesting question about the volunteers though.  They always struck my as patriotic, much more likely to wear a MAGA hat than an ACAB hat.  I'll be interested to see how many of them decline to volunteer this year.

 
JerryG said:
I recommend keeping the current system, providing masks for those who don't have them, doing what can be done for social distancing, and accepting the fact that a handful of people may get Covid and a thimbleful may die.  Somehow we've gone from "flattening the curve" to "zero cases" as the goal, which is unrealistic.
Click to expand...
Wow, I know engineers are good with numbers and all, but you must have a hard time sewing with such ginormous hands. I’d hardly characterize a highly contagious infectious disease, already a top 3 cause of death in the US and potentially a huge contributor to long term debility with such dismissive terms. Surely you can understand promoting lines/crowds common with our current system isn’t consistent with flattening the curve? Are you familiar with superspreader events?
 

Although we don’t have a lot of time, IMO the least we can do is expand the mail-in voting system and number of days available to vote in-person. But that requires buy-in from the government to staff places to vote, facilitate mailing and ensure the integrity of the process. Can you think of any reason(s) none of this appears to be happening? 

 
JerryG said:
The system has mechanisms for training new people, so in the giant scheme of changes, it doesn't strike me as large of a change as shotgun blasting nine figures worth of ballots out there.

You bring up an interesting question about the volunteers though.  They always struck my as patriotic, much more likely to wear a MAGA hat than an ACAB hat.  I'll be interested to see how many of them decline to volunteer this year.
Click to expand...
Regardless of the hat they wear, poll workers are old:

In the 2018 general election, around six-in-ten U.S. poll workers (58%) were ages 61 and older, including roughly a quarter (27%) who were over 70, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data from that year’s Election Administration and Voting Survey.
Click to expand...
Do you think patriotism will mitigate covid risk?

 
Terminalxylem said:
Regardless of the hat they wear, poll workers are old:
Click to expand...
Speaking of which - I signed up to be a poll worker this year.  Have not heard back from anyone, but I do think its important to make sure we have enough poll workers, and that we are helping to alleviate the risks to certain at-risk age populations.

 
The Gator said:
Speaking of which - I signed up to be a poll worker this year.  Have not heard back from anyone, but I do think its important to make sure we have enough poll workers, and that we are helping to alleviate the risks to certain at-risk age populations.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it would be a great opportunity to get younger people involved. Alas, there are TikTok videos to be made.

 
JerryG said:
The system has mechanisms for training new people, so in the giant scheme of changes, it doesn't strike me as large of a change as shotgun blasting nine figures worth of ballots out there.

You bring up an interesting question about the volunteers though.  They always struck my as patriotic, much more likely to wear a MAGA hat than an ACAB hat.  I'll be interested to see how many of them decline to volunteer this year.
Click to expand...
I think the change isn't "training lots of new people" as much as "paying them when they've never been paid before".

I haven't been around the entire country, but in my experience voting in a variety of locations over my adult life, I think it's fair to say that the majority of poll workers I've encountered have been older.  Regardless of hat color (and yeah, I probably agree with you regarding hat choice for that group as a whole), I imagine a significant percentage of those people may decline to volunteer due to high-risk factor for COVID.

 
JerryG said:
I think it may result in fewer (older) people recusing themselves.
Click to expand...
I think you're underestimating how seriously people fear this infection - people are avoiding going to the hospital for things like strokes and heart attacks, so it wouldn't surprise me if many avoid the polls.

Regardless, are you ok with a segment of the population avoiding voting due to health concerns?

 
Terminalxylem said:
I think you're underestimating how seriously people fear this infection - people are avoiding going to the hospital for things like strokes and heart attacks, so it wouldn't surprise me if many avoid the polls.

Regardless, are you ok with a segment of the population avoiding voting due to health concerns?
Click to expand...
Hard to say without an estimate of what that number would be.  There is no perfect solution, so we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Note that since I am a conservative, a reduction in the elderly voting probably hurts my side politically.

 
JerryG said:
Hard to say without an estimate of what that number would be.  There is no perfect solution, so we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Note that since I am a conservative, a reduction in the elderly voting probably hurts my side politically.
Click to expand...
It doesn’t have to be perfect. But we certainly can work to improve the process in the time remaining before Election Day.

Considering conservatives of all ages are more likely to be anti-science, I’d say there’s a greater chance they’re willing to vote in-person despite the pandemic.

 
Completely confident.  People go out and vote or use absentee ballots as has been done for years. 

 
I'm voting 3 IF and only if the left is stopped in changing the rules on how voting happens

I wouldn't be surprised that a state is won by Trump by 50,000 votes and weeks later 55,000 votes for Biden is magically found ... that's exactly what Hillary was alluding to :(

 
Stealthycat said:
I'm voting 3 IF and only if the left is stopped in changing the rules on how voting happens

I wouldn't be surprised that a state is won by Trump by 50,000 votes and weeks later 55,000 votes for Biden is magically found ... that's exactly what Hillary was alluding to :(
Click to expand...


fatguyinalittlecoat said:
I actually think there is some cause for concern here.  Because everything I’ve read suggest that Trump voters are less likely to vote by mail than Biden voters.  If that holds up, the election night results will look very positive for Trump.  The networks won’t call it but Trump will say he won.  Then when mail ballots show Biden cutting into his lead or passing him, Trump and his supporters will scream that the election is being stolen from him.
Click to expand...


Who knew Nostradamus was just a fat guy in a little coat?  :shrug:

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
I actually think there i.s some cause for concern here.  Because everything I’ve read suggest that Trump voters are less likely to vote by mail than Biden voters.  If that holds up, the election night results will look very positive for Trump.  The networks won’t call it but Trump will say he won.  Then when mail ballots show Biden cutting into his lead or passing him, Trump and his supporters will scream that the election is being stolen from him.
Click to expand...
+1

I have zero confidence in any tally of votes for mail in.  If I were Democrats, I would be pushing my voters to go to the polls and not mail in.  A major news story after the election could very well be the number of mail votes sent but not counted due to issues with how the person filled it out.  I can't imagine the uproar of Biden losing a State that he would have won had voters filled out the mail in vote properly.

 
I put it at a 4. There are likely to be ballot issues around the high volume of absentee/mail-in ballots. I think the Democrats made a bit of a mistake focusing so much on mail in ballots early on, when the push should have been more about broadly expanding access to safe voting options. More early-voting, more polling stations, etc., in addition to expanding secure mail in voting.

I live in a 100% mailed ballot state and it works great, but some states will have higher reject rates on those ballots. Awareness is high though, so I think people will vote early and carefully. If that's the case it hopefully it won't be an issue. 

 
GOP better be ready to cheat better them DNC and ballot harvest like the dickens :(  

you know since people love the Fed Govt making people do things like wearing masks .... can we force people to vote?  we could do like Obamacare and say if you don't vote, $1,000 fine

deal ?  anyone on board with that ? then we'd know REALLY who the people want for POTUS, not letting 50% who decide to make time for voting decide  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Stealthycat said:
you know since people love the Fed Govt making people do things like wearing masks .... can we force people to vote?  we could do like Obamacare and say if you don't vote, $1,000 fine

deal ?  anyone on board with that ? then we'd know REALLY who the people want for POTUS, not letting 50% who decide to make time for voting decide  
Click to expand...
They have mandatory voting in Australia I think, we've discussed it on this board before, I don't know if there's a full thread on it.   I used to be in favor of it, now I'm sorta conflicted.  Are you saying that you would support it or not support it?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
They have mandatory voting in Australia I think, we've discussed it on this board before, I don't know if there's a full thread on it.   I used to be in favor of it, now I'm sorta conflicted.  Are you saying that you would support it or not support it?
Click to expand...
I didn't know that but .. as of right now today?   yes - I'd be in favor because I think its that important that the voice of the people be heard. i think more people would get more involved in politics and that's a good thing. I hate forcing people ..... but its that important to me and as of right now without giving deep thought Id say yes 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/world/australia/compulsory-voting.html

 
Snotbubbles said:
+1

I have zero confidence in any tally of votes for mail in.  If I were Democrats, I would be pushing my voters to go to the polls and not mail in.  A major news story after the election could very well be the number of mail votes sent but not counted due to issues with how the person filled it out.  I can't imagine the uproar of Biden losing a State that he would have won had voters filled out the mail in vote properly.
Click to expand...
This happens literally every single election.  It's estimated that 3-4% of all votes cast (mail or otherwise) are not counted.  If it becomes an issue by either "side" here, it's an issue out of ignorance :shrug:  

 
Has anyone here, EVER provided a link to "ballot harvesting" being a huge issue in voting?  It seems to be front an center in minds and we've been doing absentee balloting in all states for decades and some states have been "by mail only" for many years, so there's plenty of opportunity...do we have any incidents that rise to the level of fear some seem to have with this concept?

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

GordonGekko
OP/ED: GEKKO WAS WRONG, 2016 POTUS Results Were Clearly Not The Product Of A "Free And Fair" Election (10/6/22 02:43 PST)
Replies
9
Views
462
The Dude
T
Joe Bryant
  • Poll
Presidential Prediction - How Confident Are You?
2
Replies
64
Views
2K
fred_1_15301
fred_1_15301
The Gator
  • Poll
Polls about the 2020 Election - July 30 edition
Replies
25
Views
549
The Gator
The Gator

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top