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JFS171

Dynasty & Redraft: James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville

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With Fournette unceremoniously released, Armstead missing practice after previously being on the COVID-19 list, and only fellow UDFA (from 2019) Devine Ozigbo on the roster ahead of him, it seems Robinson deserves his own thread to discuss.  He's from FCS Illinois State, but received a combine invite where he weighed in at 219 lbs at 5'9".

His Scouting Combine metrics:
40-time: 4.64
Vertical: 40" (second among RBs only to AJ Dillon's 41")
Broad: 125" (fifth among RBs: Dillon was 131" followed by 3 dudes from an unlicensed video game - Jet Anderson, Rico Dowdle, Brian Herrien)
3-Cone: 7.03 (fifth among RBs: Josh Kelley and Eno Benjamin were sub-7 with JJ Taylor just behind and Jonathan Taylor posting a 7.01)
Short Shuttle: 4.19 (fourth among RBs: JaMycal Hasty, JJ Taylor, and Jet Anderson beat him; Jonathan Taylor logged a 4.24)
Bench: 24 Reps (third overall behind two guys I've never heard of - Scottie Phillips and Sewo Olonilua)

Suffice to say, one helluva combine outside of the 40-time.  Per PlayerProfiler, that's a 92nd percentile burst score, a 69th percentile agility score, and an 80th percentile bench. 

As for the production at Illinois State ... well ... in 2019, Robinson rushed for 1,917 yards (5.3 YPC) with 18 TDs in 15 games.  For context, Illinois State THREW for only 1,767 yards and 10 TDs.  He outran their entire passing game by 150 yards and scored 8 more TDs.  Their second leading rusher, for comparison, had only 476 yards at 4.3 YPC.  This wasn't some rushing powerhouse - he was simply their entire offense, and teams still couldn't stop him.

Fast forward to the present.  Fournette is gone, Armstead is absent (and may or may not be any good anyway), and Ozigbo and Robinson are being talked up by Doug Marrone as 3-down backs, which is preferable to 2-down banger or 3rd-down specialist.  While Thompson will obviously have some role, his presence on the field immediately tells the defense what they're doing.

I'll admit when I started looking into Robinson, I didn't expect to find all this.  I wasn't that impressed with Armstead and like Ozigbo quite a bit, but we may all be missing the boat with Robinson.

Edited by JFS171
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Just now, jantoniosus said:

I was just going to post something like your post about Robinson.  I also found it interesting that Thompson was quoted stating that Robinson has the best vision of the backs there.

So between the coach and a competing teammate, is there something here?

Maybe for 2020 and might be for 2021. Peyton Barber was a lead back at one point and he was worthless. I don’t expect Jacksonville to be in a position to run the ball much. Probably decent trade bait for someone who might think 2021 is a better scenario, however I won’t put a lot of stock in an oft injured rob and two UDFAs for a long term solution in that backfield 

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He's making for an interesting dynasty cut down day for me. If he makes the roster I think he's worth the stash. 

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Quote

JAMES ROBINSON RB, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Jaguars are expected to “split carries” between James Robinson and Devine Ozigbo.

Ryquell Armstead is on the COVID-19 list and was expected to “serve as a backup.” Robinson showed enough in camp for the Jaguars to move on from Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville may not have a true feature back with Chris Thompson playing third downs, but Fournette’s release opened up snaps for Robinson. It's looking like Robinson and Ozigbo are the favorites for Week 1 touches.

RELATED: 

Devine Ozigbo

SOURCE: Associated Press

Sep 4, 2020, 4:49 PM ET

 

 

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Robinson vs. NDSU (#1 ranked FCS)

East/West Shrine Bowl highlights (long plays of his at about 4min and 6:30min)

Trying to figure out this Ozigbo/Robinson thing to try to make some cheap offers before the season starts, so I've been looking for decent videos of either from college. A lot less on Robinson, but I saw these.

Overall, I think he looks pretty good. However, the lack of speed is definitely noticeable at times. In the East/West Shrine highlights, he rips off a big screen pass around the 4 minute mark, but the next play he loses several yards near in the red zone when he doesn't have the speed to take the edge and tries to bounce it back but doesn't have the juice. He did have a good day in this game, but both were pretty wide open runs after some relatively simple moves. He's got potential to be a useful back for sure (though I don't see a long term solution here, myself), but right now I like him a little bit less than Ozigbo (homer alert, obviously). 

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It’s funny to me to see lack of speed mentioned for Robinson when he ran faster than Moss, and nobody seems too concerned about Moss’ 40-time. 

It would certainly be better if Robinson were faster. But given his other elite athletic traits, I’m inclined to forgive the lack of top end speed. 

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19 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

It’s funny to me to see lack of speed mentioned for Robinson when he ran faster than Moss, and nobody seems too concerned about Moss’ 40-time. 

It would certainly be better if Robinson were faster. But given his other elite athletic traits, I’m inclined to forgive the lack of top end speed. 

Oh for sure, the speed issue doesn't mean he can't be a productive NFL back given the chance, I just think it limits his upside. Jordan Howard was about the same speed and he's been useful in fantasy. Ozigbo is only barely faster (by my eyes). And as you said, his other physical traits are quite good. He's definitely worth a stash given the opportunity he has.

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38 minutes ago, Endowed said:

Howard is a step faster. While carrying more weight.

I’m not sure we can conclude that given Howard ran a 4.59 at his pro day and Robinson ran a 4.64 at the combine.  Howard was about 10lbs heavier, but also 3” taller.

It’s at least plausible to me that Robinson is just as fast (or faster) as/than Howard. 

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5 minutes ago, Endowed said:

.06 is a pretty sizable spread for that timing.

If both were measured at the scouting combine, then I’d agree. But pro day times are always faster, often by .05-.10 or more. Robinson didn’t have the benefit of improving numbers at his pro day due to COVID, and Howard didn’t do anything at the combine outside of height and weight IIRC.

Given that’s maybe a slight step faster on the overall scale, the differences in where they were measured make it hard for me to conclude Howard is definitively faster.

 

Edited by JFS171

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1 hour ago, JFS171 said:

when he ran faster than Moss

Moss had supposedly a tweaked hammy at the combine, and I believe ran a time after that at some kind of impromptu pro-day around 4.52. Now, you have to take that time with a grain of salt. When you watch his tape he’s clearly not a burner, but he certainly appears faster than what his combine 40 suggests. 

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9 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Moss had supposedly a tweaked hammy at the combine, and I believe ran a time after that at some kind of impromptu pro-day around 4.52. Now, you have to take that time with a grain of salt. When you watch his tape he’s clearly not a burner, but he certainly appears faster than what his combine 40 suggests. 

Sure. I don’t say that to suggest Moss is too slow. My point is Robinson didn’t have a pro day to improve his time, and a lot of the forty is track technique, not football skill. Maybe Robinson is slow. Maybe he isn’t. 

Either way, maybe it doesn’t matter that much?

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I picked up Ozigbo in my FA draft this week but I like what I see on the college highlights for Robinson. The thing is it can be hard to judge because his opposition were not close to NFL quality.  My guess is Ozigbo will get the most carries week 1 to show what he can do but if he doesn't perform or if Robinson looks better in his chances then this could go to Robinson. Most likely scenario is RBBC all year with these two and Armstead fighting it out week to week and Chris Thompson getting lots of COP time.  But the price on all of them is so low that it is worth buying a lottery ticket on any of them and seeing what happens.  I don't see anyone of these four being the sure fire back to own yet.  We will know more after week 1.

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Quote

Jaguars GM David Caldwell said RB James Robinson's training camp played a role in the decision to release Leonard Fournette.

This backs up Doug Marrone's comments that the gap was “smaller than expected” between Robinson and Fournette. Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead (COVID-19 list) have been getting the attention, but Robinson is an FCS star that led the nation in total yards after contact (1,332) last year. Robinson is expected to split carries with Ozigbo in Week 1.

SOURCE: Florida Times Union

Sep 6, 2020, 10:34 AM ET

 

 

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On 4/11/2020 at 6:59 PM, Nero said:

 

Given his measurables, I expected to be impressed by his "tape."  It was meh for me.  Right now my favorite sleeper RB is James Robinson.

 

21 hours ago, az_prof said:

I picked up Ozigbo in my FA draft this week but I like what I see on the college highlights for Robinson. The thing is it can be hard to judge because his opposition were not close to NFL quality.  My guess is Ozigbo will get the most carries week 1 to show what he can do but if he doesn't perform or if Robinson looks better in his chances then this could go to Robinson. Most likely scenario is RBBC all year with these two and Armstead fighting it out week to week and Chris Thompson getting lots of COP time.  But the price on all of them is so low that it is worth buying a lottery ticket on any of them and seeing what happens.  I don't see anyone of these four being the sure fire back to own yet.  We will know more after week 1.

I could have chosen Ozigbo, but I’ve been on Robinson since before the draft (I was meh on Darrynton Evans), so I chose him over Ozigbo. Ironically, I always felt if the opportunity came Ozigbo would have outperformed Armstead. However it was easy for me to rationalize going with Robinson, because Fournette’s percentage of RB carries was probably only second to CMC. Given that Fournette was considered to be inefficient and underperforming, you would expect that Armstead/Ozigbo would have been given more of an opportunity. I concluded Fournette’s release had more to do with Robinson, than Armstead/Ozigbo.

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1 minute ago, Nero said:

 

I could have chosen Ozigbo, but I’ve been on Robinson since before the draft (I was meh on Darrynton Evans), so I chose him over Ozigbo. Ironically, I always felt if the opportunity came Ozigbo would have outperformed Armstead. However it was easy for me to rationalize going with Robinson, because Fournette’s percentage of RB carries was probably only second to CMC. Given that Fournette was considered to be inefficient and underperforming, you would expect that Armstead/Ozigbo would have been given more of an opportunity. I concluded Fournette’s release had more to do with Robinson, than Armstead/Ozigbo.

A Freeman signing would throw a wrench in the backfield.

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Freeman looked like a shell of himself. He would slow the process, but not stop it IMO.

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I've watched Robinson's highlights twice. (Once in preparation for our rookie draft. The other in preparation for starting an auction on him two weeks ago.) The highlights don't look bad but they don't scream out at me, either, and I have a vested interest in him doing well and producing. The only knock I see is that top end speed. Look at his run in the East/West Shrine game. He shows plenty of burst at the second level, it's the breakaway speed that may be questionable at the pro level. Chances are he would have gotten caught in the NFL, but his burst through the second level shows plenty of burst to him. They're actually discussing his speed as he runs it in for a touchdown. I'd love to hear that context. He also looks, in the Shrine Game, like he dropped some weight from his regular season. I'd love to know if that's the case and what that means for his speed.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1218669124789796865

Edited by rockaction
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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Thinking of making him my first priority waiver claim this week. Him or Darrel.

Interesting. Watch his college highlights before you do and let us know what you think. I don't know what you can tell from non-FBS competition, but it at least is nice to have seen it.

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16 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Interesting. Watch his college highlights before you do and let us know what you think. I don't know what you can tell from non-FBS competition, but it at least is nice to have seen it.

Either way in one league there are very few other options. I'm not hung up on the long speed question. If he is explosive otherwise, I'm good. And his measurables say he is. He wouldn't be as big of a waiver priority for me as some other week 1 guys in years past.

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22 hours ago, ponchsox said:

A Freeman signing would throw a wrench in the backfield.

Agree and disagree...Freeman adds another body (which is probably expected) but in the big scheme it could be a 100 times worse...the Jags are rebuilding and if Robinson is legit Freeman will not matter...on the flipside if Freeman beats out Robinson then you can move on quickly and not waste a roster spot because it wasn't meant to be.

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26 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Thinking of making him my first priority waiver claim this week. Him or Darrel.

I think Ozigbo could be the better pick up.

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5 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

doubt he has more value in redraft than Chris Thompson ( if CT stays healthy)

Like him as a bench stash in dyno.

PPR, yes. Standard, no.

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One of the more interesting end of bench holds right now

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On 9/3/2020 at 4:03 PM, jantoniosus said:

I was just going to post something like your post about Robinson.  I also found it interesting that Thompson was quoted stating that Robinson has the best vision of the backs there.

So between the coach and a competing teammate, is there something here?

Great balance to go with that vision too.  If Jax can move the ball between the 20s, I think this guy could be a beast in the RZ.  Give him a hole and he'll hit it and be able to fall forward.  

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18 minutes ago, DeaLerZ said:

Robinson just listed as the Starter for Jags

Got a sleeper alert for that too. Sounds like it's the team website, so maybe not reliable (I always hear that interns do that, basically). Good news for the hype train though.

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Oh, that's interesting. Just drafted him in the thirteenth round of a draft. Wooot wooot.

*sorry for wooting in public

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2 hours ago, oddsbodkins said:

Chose Robinson over Ozigbo. Let's see if we all get lucky!

Colts 31 Jags 0

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

He isn't available in quite a few. 

Wasn't in our dynasty league. Rostered.

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Seems like Robinson is the guy to get, but honestly who knows how this will turn out -- Robinson has been impressing coaches in camp but is an unproven UDFA; Ozigbo has at least a year of history on the team and two years in the NFL.

Me, I drafted Thompson in PPR so glad his stock ticks up a little short term with Armstead going to reserve. But even his value is up in the air depending on what happens (both Ozigbo and Robinson seem to be able to catch passes).

Choosing the right guy now between Robinson and Ozigbo could be huge. Either of them could be a solid contributor/RB depth for a fantasy team. It's equally likely that neither of them will  -- they could both fizzle, be platooned to the point that neither is startable, or anything else in between.

Love fantasy in this regard -- sometimes the speculation is more exciting than the result. 

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If you cannot grab Ozigbo but can grab Robinson or vice versa, wouldn't it make sense to just do so, depending on your roster, depth, etc?  There's no need to figure it out now - grab and stash the one you like best, or whomever is available, for some dead weight (an injured Perriman or one of the PKs who were cut, etc) and see how it plays out.

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40 minutes ago, Efritch4 said:

And the Jags did not sign Freeman?!

As of now he is not signed, or he at least wasn't a few hours ago.

The rumor is they were also waiting for him to clear some "tests", take that for what you will. Possibly Covid related.

Does it mean they will sign him? Well , maybe.

I wouldn't necessarily be actively pursuing Freeman, but if I were an owner I would be "holding"/looking for a role somewhere.

Even if he WERE to sign with the Jags, I really couldn't expect much other than low end RB2 with upside.

If I were in a corner looking for depth, I'd probably stash Robinson and see what develops.

The Jags can scream "non-tanking" all they want, but they don't look to be a Super Bowl contender, and "seeing what they have" in their younger backs is probably the smart play.

 

Then again , IT IS THE JAGUARS.     :wall:

 

 

TZM

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As a RoJo and Kerryon owner, I just need Robinson or Ozibigo to become the lead back. Hopefully one of them makes it obvious this weekend.

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1 hour ago, TZMarkie said:

As of now he is not signed, or he at least wasn't a few hours ago.

The rumor is they were also waiting for him to clear some "tests", take that for what you will. Possibly Covid related.

Does it mean they will sign him? Well , maybe.

I wouldn't necessarily be actively pursuing Freeman, but if I were an owner I would be "holding"/looking for a role somewhere.

Even if he WERE to sign with the Jags, I really couldn't expect much other than low end RB2 with upside.

If I were in a corner looking for depth, I'd probably stash Robinson and see what develops.

The Jags can scream "non-tanking" all they want, but they don't look to be a Super Bowl contender, and "seeing what they have" in their younger backs is probably the smart play.

 

Then again , IT IS THE JAGUARS.     :wall:

 

 

TZM

Freeman turned down a 1 year 4 mil deal from Seattle. I don't see Jacksonville, a team in rebuild, offering a 28 yr old rb who seems to be on the decline, more than that.

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3 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

Freeman turned down a 1 year 4 mil deal from Seattle. I don't see Jacksonville, a team in rebuild, offering a 28 yr old rb who seems to be on the decline, more than that.

I don't disagree.

But something stinks here.  One would think* Freeman has some suitors......but the longer this goes on, maybe he doesn't. I'm thinking he *MIGHT* be chasing a team where he can get a big workload, and bet on himself for the 2021 season. (Maybe he believes he has got a fair amount of gas left in the tank, regardless of what we might think)

If he believes in himself, I wouldn't be signing with Seattle either, as he would go to 3rd on the depth chart (I guess).

I believe the only reason he would even contemplate going to the Jags is if he wants a big role. He was never going to get that in Seattle, barring a parlay of injuries.

 

I didn't necessarily envision him signing with the Jags, but If I was an owner, I would be holding and praying for him to latch on somewhere, and get some trade value from a RB needy owner if possible. FWIW, Freeman is still on the wire in a couple of my redraft leagues...... and lets just say some of my opponents aren't exactly stacked at RB.

 

 TZM

Edited by TZMarkie
my spelling sux :)

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The Jags are a very bad team that looks to be tanking for the number 1 pick. I would not get too excited about anyone. 

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