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timschochet’s political thoughts and commentary- back in here until the election is done (2 Viewers)

In another thread, @Max Power , a Trump supporter wrote: 

“I personally don’t think Covid-19 is as dangerous as we’ve been led to believe”. 

It seems to me that here we have the root of the problem. Max, based on my experience with him in this forum, is decent and honorable gentleman who served us all in Afghanistan. Yet consider the implications of his statement. For it to be correct, we have to assume that the news media is lying, the medical and public health officials are lying, in fact the whole world is lying- apparently for the purpose of defeating Donald Trump?? 

 
timschochet said:
In another thread, @Max Power , a Trump supporter wrote: 

“I personally don’t think Covid-19 is as dangerous as we’ve been led to believe”. 

It seems to me that here we have the root of the problem. Max, based on my experience with him in this forum, is decent and honorable gentleman who served us all in Afghanistan. Yet consider the implications of his statement. For it to be correct, we have to assume that the news media is lying, the medical and public health officials are lying, in fact the whole world is lying- apparently for the purpose of defeating Donald Trump?? 
Click to expand...
That is a perfectly reasonable statement. I dont believe it is as dangerous either. I can link thousands of tweets from "experts" that were either completely wrong or very misleading. Studies that have been retracted, studies that have never been published, studies that the accompanying articles or tweets are totally alarmist or just malarkey. 

Doesnt mean it isn't real or even deadly. It just isnt what is constantly portrayed.

Doesnt havent to be because it is a plot against trump. In fact there are many many reasons far more likely than that.

 
timschochet said:
In another thread, @Max Power , a Trump supporter wrote: 

“I personally don’t think Covid-19 is as dangerous as we’ve been led to believe”. 

It seems to me that here we have the root of the problem. Max, based on my experience with him in this forum, is decent and honorable gentleman who served us all in Afghanistan. Yet consider the implications of his statement. For it to be correct, we have to assume that the news media is lying, the medical and public health officials are lying, in fact the whole world is lying- apparently for the purpose of defeating Donald Trump?? 
Click to expand...
I don't see how you can jump to all those conclusions by my statement. 

You also have remember that I've spent over 3 years of my life in war zones, so it's safe to say I'm less risk averse than the general population. 

I've explained my position that I believe the cure is becoming worse than the disease. 

 
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timschochet said:
In another thread, @Max Power , a Trump supporter wrote: 

“I personally don’t think Covid-19 is as dangerous as we’ve been led to believe”. 

It seems to me that here we have the root of the problem. Max, based on my experience with him in this forum, is decent and honorable gentleman who served us all in Afghanistan. Yet consider the implications of his statement. For it to be correct, we have to assume that the news media is lying, the medical and public health officials are lying, in fact the whole world is lying- apparently for the purpose of defeating Donald Trump?? 
Click to expand...
Max's statement is not inaccurate, if you look at it from the context of the liberal media hype and from the perspective of people under the age of 55.

I mean, it's selfish, callous and narcissistic, but it's not inaccurate.

 
Joe Summer said:
Max's statement is not inaccurate, if you look at it from the context of the liberal media hype and from the perspective of people under the age of 55.

I mean, it's selfish, callous and narcissistic, but it's not inaccurate.
Click to expand...
No I’m not going to reach any of those conclusions. I don’t know Max but he doesn’t strike me as selfish or callous or narcissistic. 

 
Max Power said:
I don't see how you can jump to all those conclusions by my statement. 

You also have remember that I've spent over 3 years of my life in war zones, so it's safe to say I'm less risk averse than the general population. 

I've explained my position that I believe the cure is becoming worse than the disease. 
Click to expand...
For both you and @parasaurolophus: what I wrote is the logical inference of your statement. If we have been led to believe that this disease is less dangerous than has been presented, then the whole world is lying to us. 

 
timschochet said:
For both you and @parasaurolophus: what I wrote is the logical inference of your statement. If we have been led to believe that this disease is less dangerous than has been presented, then the whole world is lying to us. 
Click to expand...
Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.  So yeah, I don't think the US is losing 2 million people over this.

COVID is not very deadly to healthy people under 50. 

Maybe I just need to know how deadly you think this is.

 
Max Power said:
Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.  So yeah, I don't think the US is losing 2 million people over this.

COVID is not very deadly to healthy people under 50. 

Maybe I just need to know how deadly you think this is.
Click to expand...
Tim and I have both lost loved ones to this. I've had many more friends and loved ones get very sick. One of them just 26, and very healthy, was in the ICU for two days. Nobody knows what the long term ramifications of this are either. I've read different opinions but that's all they are right now. We won't truly know for 5+ years IMO.  I'll just leave it at that and go get drunk again. Sorry, Tim, didn't mean to muck up your thread. 

 
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2Squirrels1Nut said:
Tim and I have both lost loved ones to this. I've had many more friends and loved ones get very sick. One of them just 26, and very healthy, was in the ICU for two days. Nobody knows what the long term ramifications of this are either. I've read different opinions but that's all they are right now. We won't truly know for 5+ years IMO.  I'll just leave it at that and go get drunk again. Sorry, Tim, didn't mean to muck up your thread. 
Click to expand...
Sorry to hear that. Stay strong.

 
Max Power said:
Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.  So yeah, I don't think the US is losing 2 million people over this.

COVID is not very deadly to healthy people under 50. 

Maybe I just need to know how deadly you think this is.
Click to expand...
Here’s what we should all be able to agree upon: 

1. Its a very deadly disease for those over 55 and those with certain existing conditions. Since we’re not about to segregate those people from the rest of us, it’s a very deadly disease for society as a whole. 
2. Its also a very deadly disease for society because it’s occupying far too much space and time for our medical professionals and hospitals. If this continues it will jeopardize our treatment of other medical problems (in certain places like Wisconsin and South Dakota this may already be happening. 
3. The best way to keep this disease from spreading is shutting down as much human interaction as possible, but since that price is too high for our economy, the second best way is to maintain and enforce social distancing and mask wearing. 
4. If we are to enforce social distancing and mask wearing it cannot be voluntary. 
5. We need to have testing available upon demand for the entire population. 

 
Max Power said:
Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.  So yeah, I don't think the US is losing 2 million people over this.

COVID is not very deadly to healthy people under 50. 

Maybe I just need to know how deadly you think this is.
Click to expand...
That estimate assumed no mitigation at all.  No masks, no distancing, everyone just continued on like it was 2019.  It's entirely reasonable to think 2 million deaths would be possible in such an environment.

 
It was 2 million if we'r did NOTHING AT ALL.... so tired of that as a standard. Every reasonable estimate was between 200 and 500K. They appear to be spot on. 

 
timschochet said:
Its a very deadly disease for those over 55 and those with certain existing conditions. Since we’re not about to segregate those people from the rest of us, it’s a very deadly disease for society as a whole. 
Click to expand...
"Hey everybody let me frame this a certain way to state a conclusion."

 
Max Power said:
Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.  So yeah, I don't think the US is losing 2 million people over this.

COVID is not very deadly to healthy people under 50. 

Maybe I just need to know how deadly you think this is.
Click to expand...
From Andrew Levin, an economist at Dartmouth. IFR is infection fatality rate, using seroprevalence estimates.

>>Results Our analysis finds a exponential relationship between age and IFR for COVID-19. The estimated age-specific IFRs are very low for children and younger adults but increase progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. We find that differences in the age structure of the population and the age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 explain about 90% of the geographical variation in population IFR.

Discussion These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza. Moreover, the overall IFR for COVID-19 should not be viewed as a fixed parameter but as intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. Consequently, public health measures to mitigate infections in older adults could substantially decrease total deaths. <<

It's very deadly to older people, but not younger people. As we open up, how do we prevent generational spread? It's not black and white, as far as opening up, but more frequent testing and wearing masks and tracing would help. Also, some younger people who survive are left with permanent lung damage.

COVID is more deadly than the seasonal flu, it may be related to partial immunity.

• 2.9× more fatal at age 30

• 5.0× at 40 • 8.6× at 50

• 13.6× at 60

• 14.4× at 70

 
Max Power said:
Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.
Click to expand...
Other scientists were saying that the US would lose no more than we lose during an average flu season, in more than one estimate.

Do you think it's fair to cherry pick that estimate and then proclaim that COVID is more dangerous than we've been led to believe?

At any rate, why cite outdated estimates at all? Why not just look at the current numbers. 1000 extra people a day are dying year-over-year. Is that not dangerous?

 
57 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.
Click to expand...
I am sure you must be aware that the 2.2 million figure was the absolute worst case scenario, and a situation in which the government did absolutely nothing to fight this pandemic and the public did not wear masks or do social distancing - in other words business as usual for everyone.

 
squistion said:
I am sure you must be aware that the 2.2 million figure was the absolute worst case scenario, and a situation in which the government did absolutely nothing to fight this pandemic and the public did not wear masks or do social distancing - in other words business as usual for everyone.
Click to expand...
This is true.  The 2.2 million deaths was only if NO ONE WORE MASKS, SOCIAL DISTANCED, or SANITIZED.  Trump didn't "save millions".  He contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths because of his lack of response and continued downplaying of the virus.  

 
The Commish said:
There was also a prediction that the 15 cases we had were under control and we'd be through it in a week

We could cite stupid for days on this
Click to expand...
Like where people are uncapable of reading how dangerous something is and don't make smart choices until President Trump tells them to do something?  Because that's where those blaming him for hundreds of thousands of death are going.  I feel bad that people aren't intelligent enough to do anything without Trump.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Like where people are uncapable of reading how dangerous something is and don't make smart choices until President Trump tells them to do something?  Because that's where those blaming him for hundreds of thousands of death are going.  I feel bad that people aren't intelligent enough to do anything without Trump.
Click to expand...
Me too... but for whatever reason there are many. :shrug:

 
"I dont think covid is as dangerous as we are led to believe" Is a perfectly reasonable statement. 

Adding "it is blown out of proportion to make trump look bad" makes it unreasonable.

There are all sorts of varying degrees in between that are worthy of discussion. 

That shouldnt be controversial. Like, at all.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Like where people are uncapable of reading how dangerous something is and don't make smart choices until President Trump tells them to do something?  Because that's where those blaming him for hundreds of thousands of death are going.  I feel bad that people aren't intelligent enough to do anything without Trump.
Click to expand...
This premise or concept that’s put out there that people don’t follow leaders, especially those they passionately agree with, is a fascinating one.  While I agree with your fundamental thoughts RW, it’s extraordinary unrealistic to think lots of people don’t follow the lead of the leader.  It’s literally the meaning of the word “leader”.  

 
dkp993 said:
This premise or concept that’s put out there that people don’t follow leaders, especially those they passionately agree with, is a fascinating one.  While I agree with your fundamental thoughts RW, it’s extraordinary unrealistic to think lots of people don’t follow the lead of the leader.  It’s literally the meaning of the word “leader”.  
Click to expand...
Sure.  But remember the week all hell broke loose?  The NBA stopped it's season.  College basketball was shutting down conference tournaments.  I didn't need a President or anyone else to tell me not to send my kid to an amusement park, or something similarly dumb.  

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Sure.  But remember the week all hell broke loose?  The NBA stopped it's season.  College basketball was shutting down conference tournaments.  I didn't need a President or anyone else to tell me not to send my kid to an amusement park, or something similarly dumb.  
Click to expand...
Might i ask about this amusement park comment and its context?  Youve said it a few times now so is it safe to assume someone here did this?  I normally wouldnt think anything about examples but youve brought this specific one up multiple times for some reason i dont know.  Just wondering. 

 
The Commish said:
Might i ask about this amusement park comment and its context?  Youve said it a few times now so is it safe to assume someone here did this?  I normally wouldnt think anything about examples but youve brought this specific one up multiple times for some reason i dont know.  Just wondering. 
Click to expand...
Its trolling me...and badly at that.  Best to ignore such stuff.

 
The Commish said:
Might i ask about this amusement park comment and its context?  Youve said it a few times now so is it safe to assume someone here did this?  I normally wouldnt think anything about examples but youve brought this specific one up multiple times for some reason i dont know.  Just wondering. 
Click to expand...
Change it to going to a movie theater or any other crowded place.  Same point.  Did you need Trump to tell you not to do something like that when major sports leagues are cancelling games?

 
parasaurolophus said:
"I dont think covid is as dangerous as we are led to believe" Is a perfectly reasonable statement. 

Adding "it is blown out of proportion to make trump look bad" makes it unreasonable.

There are all sorts of varying degrees in between that are worthy of discussion. 

That shouldnt be controversial. Like, at all.
Click to expand...
That depends on what you were led to believe. Based on what we've learned, it seems exactly as dangerous as the experts in the field anticipated, which is pretty dangerous.

Maybe there's vagueness about what we mean when we say dangerous.

As of October 29, 2020, an average of around 908 people per day have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. since the first case was confirmed in the country on January 20th. On an average day, nearly 8,000 people die from all causes in the United States, based on data from 2019. The daily death toll from seasonal flu, using preliminary maximum estimates from the 2019-2020 influenza season, is an average of almost 332 people. Based on the latest information, more than one in ten deaths each day can be attributed to COVID-19 since January 20th.
Click to expand...
That's 1 in 10 deaths - from all sources of death. That seems pretty dangerous to me. 908 people a day dying - that's equivalent to having a 9/11 fatality level event about every 4 days. That seems pretty dangerous to me.

 
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Gr00vus said:
That depends on what you were led to believe. Based on what we've learned, it seems exactly as dangerous as the experts in the field anticipated, which is pretty dangerous.

Maybe there's vagueness about what we mean when we say dangerous.

That's 1 in 10 deaths - from all sources of death. That seems pretty dangerous to me. 908 people a day dying - that's equivalent to having a 9/11 fatality level event about every 4 days. That seems pretty dangerous to me.
Click to expand...
Such a statement doesnt say it isnt dangerous at all.

 
parasaurolophus said:
Such a statement doesnt say it isnt dangerous at all.
Click to expand...
Sure. I'm just wondering what "less than we were led to believe" means or why it's being forwarded at all? This is a pretty dangerous disease, and it deserves much more attention and effort than this administration has given, and it does mean we as a whole will need to make some changes temporarily to deal with it. Ignoring it, or severely downplaying it will make it worse.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Sure.  But remember the week all hell broke loose?  The NBA stopped it's season.  College basketball was shutting down conference tournaments.  I didn't need a President or anyone else to tell me not to send my kid to an amusement park, or something similarly dumb.  
Click to expand...
You, yes (you’re a FBG’er, we’re all extraordinary didn’t ya know).  Others pretty clearly not though. That’s exactly why I said I agree with your thought completely, unfortunately it’s just not how many many many people actually act. 

 
Max Power said:
Scientists were saying the US could lose 2.2 million people to COVID in one estimate.  So yeah, I don't think the US is losing 2 million people over this.

COVID is not very deadly to healthy people under 50. 

Maybe I just need to know how deadly you think this is.
Click to expand...
please tell me that you understand that the 2.2 M number was in reference to doing nothing to fight the virus.

As in, a virus is coming. If we choose to do nothing at all, totally ignoring the virus, 2.2 M will die.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Change it to going to a movie theater or any other crowded place.  Same point.  Did you need Trump to tell you not to do something like that when major sports leagues are cancelling games?
Click to expand...
Sure same point. It's just a very specific thing you keep repeating so i figure there's a reason.    You don't want to explain.   That's cool.... just wondering

 
timschochet said:
Here’s what we should all be able to agree upon: 

1. Its a very deadly disease for those over 55 and those with certain existing conditions. Since we’re not about to segregate those people from the rest of us, it’s a very deadly disease for society as a whole. 
2. Its also a very deadly disease for society because it’s occupying far too much space and time for our medical professionals and hospitals. If this continues it will jeopardize our treatment of other medical problems (in certain places like Wisconsin and South Dakota this may already be happening. 
3. The best way to keep this disease from spreading is shutting down as much human interaction as possible, but since that price is too high for our economy, the second best way is to maintain and enforce social distancing and mask wearing. 
4. If we are to enforce social distancing and mask wearing it cannot be voluntary. 
5. We need to have testing available upon demand for the entire population. 
Click to expand...
Most Trump supporters I know, and I know a lot of them living where I do, largely agree with all this.  At the very least, they practice this.  I live in a county Trump won by over 50 points in 2016 and it's so rare to run into someone without a mask in public or not distancing that I notice it.  I think a lot of the people in blue areas think we are just running around here sharing straws out of drinks and breathing on each other all day.  I think the pushback here isn't from people who don't believe the virus is real or dangerous, those people are there but they are few and far between, it's that people don't want shutdowns and are willing to mitigate the risk but feel it's important to keep schools and the economy open.

 
Gr00vus said:
Sure. I'm just wondering what "less than we were led to believe" means or why it's being forwarded at all? This is a pretty dangerous disease, and it deserves much more attention and effort than this administration has given, and it does mean we as a whole will need to make some changes temporarily to deal with it. Ignoring it, or severely downplaying it will make it worse.
Click to expand...
Tim put a quote in this thread. The quote itself was all he put from MP. No context. The quote itself is not unreasonable. If it was used as some further plot, well how would we know that? None of that was copied and pasted. In this thread all we got was the quote. 

 
Shula-holic said:
Most Trump supporters I know, and I know a lot of them living where I do, largely agree with all this.  At the very least, they practice this.  I live in a county Trump won by over 50 points in 2016 and it's so rare to run into someone without a mask in public or not distancing that I notice it.  I think a lot of the people in blue areas think we are just running around here sharing straws out of drinks and breathing on each other all day.  I think the pushback here isn't from people who don't believe the virus is real or dangerous, those people are there but they are few and far between, it's that people don't want shutdowns and are willing to mitigate the risk but feel it's important to keep schools and the economy open.
Click to expand...
To provide some anecdotal evidence for your anecdotal evidence. I live in a community in Southern California that’s pretty red.  My wife and I have a five-year-old daughter so we have the typical large circle of kid parent friends. Over half of them, 5 or 6 families, are Trump supporters through and through. MAGA since day one.  Every single one of them refuses to wear masks ever, which in Southern California is very odd as in general mask use is very high around here. Almost all of them think Covid is massively overblown or is a fraud that will disappear next Wednesday. And when they do talk about it they talk about Trump “dominating Covid” so how bad could it really be.  My wife went out to Dinner for her birthday recently with five of the moms, four of them are Trump supporters and refused to wear a masks.  They had to spend quite some time to find a restaurant that would allow them in and had to sit on the patio without masks.  Mind you they were out for my wife’s birthday who is a mask wearer, god forbid they make the exception and go to the restaurant she wanted to and just wear a mask for 2 mins while walking in, but I digress....  either way my point there’s a lot of them out there.  

 
parasaurolophus said:
Tim put a quote in this thread. The quote itself was all he put from MP. No context. The quote itself is not unreasonable. If it was used as some further plot, well how would we know that? None of that was copied and pasted. In this thread all we got was the quote. 
Click to expand...
O.k. I understand your comments better in light of that. Thanks for clarifying. I'd say I'll go try to track down the original post, but there are so many threads it could be in, I don't think I have the energy.

 
Sneegor said:
Trump is 100% correct on this.  How could you possibly be demoralized by this?  Did you not know that there is a large financial payment to the hospital when the death is classified as COVID?  Do you not see how that might cause then to mark it as COVID when in question?  
Click to expand...
the anti-Trumpers are arguing semantics in that Trump attacked "doctors", not the hospitals or medical systems that receive the premium for Covid coded illness

the doctors may or may not benefit directly, but there is no question that someone is being incentivized to code items as Covid related

 
Obie Wan said:
the anti-Trumpers are arguing semantics in that Trump attacked "doctors", not the hospitals or medical systems that receive the premium for Covid coded illness

the doctors may or may not benefit directly, but there is no question that someone is being incentivized to code items as Covid related
Click to expand...
The flaw in your argument is that the incentive is for COVID diagnoses, not for COVID deaths.

If your argument held any water, then we'd see hospitalizations go up while deaths went down. But both are up.

So, it's just more lies from a lying president.

 
The Commish said:
I've answered your question multiple times in the past.... its weird you keep asking it... so this time I'll answer "purple"  :shrug:

all you had to say was you didn't want to answer...no big deal
Click to expand...
No need to jump into a conversation just to be a #### about it.  I'm not answering your question because there's no reason to answer your question.  It's just deflecting from the point I was making with another poster before you deciding to jump in with your nonsense.  

Your answer to needing Trump to give you guidance is "purple".  Like I said, I feel bad for people that aren't intelligent enough to make smart decisions themselves.

 
Sneegor said:
Trump is 100% correct on this.  How could you possibly be demoralized by this?  Did you not know that there is a large financial payment to the hospital when the death is classified as COVID?  Do you not see how that might cause then to mark it as COVID when in question?  
Click to expand...
Welcome to the camp that wants healthcare reform.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
No need to jump into a conversation just to be a #### about it.  I'm not answering your question because there's no reason to answer your question.  It's just deflecting from the point I was making with another poster before you deciding to jump in with your nonsense.  

Your answer to needing Trump to give you guidance is "purple".  Like I said, I feel bad for people that aren't intelligent enough to make smart decisions themselves.
Click to expand...
I just asked you a question :lmao:  and the bold is all you said to say but you chose the path you did instead.  Somehow that's my fault, cool.  Whatever.  Clearly there's something there, but I don't really care enough to go down that path with you.  On topic, I too feel bad for people that aren't intelligent enough to make smart decisions themselves, but apparently there are plenty :shrug:  They need their leader to spoon feed them.  That's unfortunate.  

 
Shula-holic said:
Most Trump supporters I know, and I know a lot of them living where I do, largely agree with all this.  At the very least, they practice this.  I live in a county Trump won by over 50 points in 2016 and it's so rare to run into someone without a mask in public or not distancing that I notice it.  I think a lot of the people in blue areas think we are just running around here sharing straws out of drinks and breathing on each other all day.  I think the pushback here isn't from people who don't believe the virus is real or dangerous, those people are there but they are few and far between, it's that people don't want shutdowns and are willing to mitigate the risk but feel it's important to keep schools and the economy open.
Click to expand...
I just spent 5 hours driving in Indiana.  Stopped at multiple rest stops with kids.  Masks were 50-50 or 60-40 in every place we stopped.  Indoors.

 
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