Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
The full was...
Study shows 700 Trump rally goers believed to have died from Covid.
The study specifically says that the deaths arent linked to attendees.
Yeah, far more likely that location is correlated with attendance at rallies and lax behavior in everyday life. Unlikely that this is a direct result of just attending rallies.
That's one poll. Two polls yesterday had it as one point race. A single poll doesn't tell the whole story.
Agreed. And I really hate making ANY assumptions about where someone contracted Covid unless the evidence is extremely cut and dry (which is rare.)
Yep. But Iowa is pretty conservative, and again, it’s just one poll. Nobody should react to a single poll. None of us is a polling expert (as far as I’ve seen in here at least).
It was an 800-person poll with a margin of error of 7 points in distance between candidates. So Trump could be up by 14 points there,
This is a fairly common sentiment, but believing it relies upon a bunch of assumptions about the health and economic consequences of COVID with/without current public health measures. Rather than putting words on your keyboard, can you elaborate why you think this way?
Pollster ratings are based on methodology, not accuracy.
I'm reading the study on my phone, which is a challenge, but this is what I've made of it so far.
I know trump 2016 voters that are voting for Biden. I know 2016 Trump voters that are voting for trump. I know 2016 3rd party voters that are voting biden. I know 2016 non voters that are voting biden.
I think the impact on student learning is hurting a whole generation of children. Some kids haven't been in a classroom since March and it shows.
The 2.2 million was the high end estimate if NO disease mitigation occurred - ie., the worst case scenario. The 200K+ deaths we currently have isn’t nearly as high, but our death rate greatly exceeds many (most) other developed countries, who’ve been more consistent and effective with infection control measures.
I really appreciate you because you’re one of the few people on either side who is willing to offer political analysis that in some cases might be opposed to that which you want to have happen- @Gr00vus is another guy willing to do that. Unfortunately you guys tend to be few and far between. Most people are prejudiced by what they want to have happen much of the time- I know I am.
I understand your concerns, but you’re effectively relying on a “gut feeling” that keeping kids out of school will have disastrous long term consequences. I believe kids are pretty resilient, and think some sort of hybrid in-person + remote learning can still fulfill their educational needs. While the socialization aspect is tough, I don’t think more time with family and social circle “bubbles” will leave a generation of kids permanently scarred. Heck, a large percentage of their time was being spent on-line pre-pandemic anyway.
These are reasonable concerns. As someone with several people close to me in the education field I don’t disagree with you at all. Yes there should have been, and still should be, alternatives to a full shut down approach and we haven’t come close to exploring those. On the other hand, President Trump’s position of “Open the schools up now!” without thought or consequence is wholly irresponsible, like so much else of what he has proposed throughout this pandemic. And we have not given nearly enough money to schools so that they can deal with this situation- specifically for that I blame Republicans and I think that blame is justified since school funding has been in the Democratic stimulus bills and not in the Republican ones.
I have no complaints against @Joe Bryant. I don’t always agree with him (and he agrees with me even less!) but he’s trying to keep this place safe for discussion and debate with less acrimony and trolling. I support that effort.
Iowa is a pipe dream for Biden. A last minute shift of this degree is worth raising an eyebrow over, but I don't think it's the canary in the coalmine. I think it's dragging things more towards where they "should have" been. Even before this 538 had Iowa at like 56% Trump. Up until a month ago Iowa was pretty steady in the mid to high 60 percent degree of probability for Trump at 538.
Right, so these 5 or 6 people stand out like a sore thumb. It's not like they would be the only Trump supporters around. It's foolish to think that the majority of Trump voters aren't wearing masks, distancing, etc. I'd say your own observation here would prove that. I never denied there are a few out there who believe it's a hoax or something to that effect but that's not even remotely mainstream in hardcore Trump country.
This is a really well constructed post. So much in here that deserves more attention and debate — and this is coming from someone who has been more locked down than > 95% of America from the beginning. Personally, my family is doing great. Kids are thriving. We have more time as a family than ever before. Etc. But.....as Max writes, that isn’t reality for a lot of people. And I have deep empathy for anyone who is struggling now, whether they realize they are struggling or not. There is a very, very real downside to the approach we’ve taken.
Well...despite that poll, most of me continues to believe that you won’t have to wait, the dust will settle Tuesday night, because Joe Biden is going to win Florida, and we will hear that news by 7 pm PST. FWIW I think he’s going to win Georgia as well. And the election will be over.
My wife's system is having massive issues with this. As you get into the more rural areas here it's even worse. The district I came up in is having lots of kids who turn in no work at all. Apparently they are "checking in" daily but not doing work so it's not treated as truancy here. These kids though have had no instruction nor done any work since March at this point.
Here is a study to read. It breaks things down better than I'm able to.
Biden's not winning Florida. He's not winning Georgia either. Those are 2 places we already know the State government is actively working at voter suppression even before we get to hijinks with mail in ballots. Of the states within the margin of error, AZ, NC and PA are the ones that will determine the outcome. If Biden does get Florida and/or Georgia, we're talking landslide. And given Trump's approval rating is still right around 44% nation wide, I don't see that happening.
How do you have no complaints? I literally won your Timleague a couple years ago. This means I’m gone. A total echo chamber will happen.
Medicare reimbursement was increased for COVID patients, as part of the CARES act The Donald himself signed (and bragged about on several occasions). The payments were increased in recognition of the extra resources/time required to care for living COVID patients. It has nothing to do with deaths due to COVID per se.
It's sad. I think schools need to open both in person and virtual options. Let the parents decide.
Yeah, it’s a really good article. I used to work at McK and still am on a bunch of distribution lists for their research; read this awhile back.
I’ll check it out. Thanks.Max Power said:
I don’t think you should leave. If you do, I will have a complaint against YOU for leaving.Widbil83 said:
Based on the numbers I have seen on early voting, the Republicans have closed the gap and should expect a larger turnout on election day. I think Trump takes Florida.timschochet said:
Please elaborate - who falsely attributed a death to COVID, in what context? How do you know COVID wasn’t the cause of death?Sneegor said:
Are there any stats on how many people died with no underlying issues? I had thought the large percentage of people who have died were either older with weaker immune systems or had other issues where COVID was the final straw.
I'm no child psychologist, but remote learning for my then 4 year old last Spring was an absolute disaster and had a noticeable effect on her mental well-being. She had been in daycare since she was 6 months old, is an only child, and is very social. We started having significant behavioral problems about a month into online learning that we had never experienced previously and at points she was inconsolable and filled with rage. She is in a private school so they opened in September (with an abundance of safety precautions and random testing weekly) and the change in her behavior and her intelligence is staggering. We are blessed that we can afford to do this; most families cannot. This sentiment is the same with every single one of my daughter's friends' parents. And your "more time with family" argument doesn't work so well when the family is trying to keep their employment afloat working from home all day and trying to juggle that with assisting a 5 year old with Zoom and everyone in the entire household on edge and there's not a lot of quality family time.Terminalxylem said:
I feel your pain. I have two daughters, 10 and 6. My 6 year old did fine with being at home and did fine with schoolwork as long as we made sure to stay on top of her and sit with her to work with her on it. My 10 year old however really struggled with the mental and social aspects. Her mental state really deteriorated over those six months. She became depressed and at times would have breakdowns over not being able to go to school or see her friends from school. Not every child is the same, even siblings. You can be a good parent and make sure you do the work with your child, and some may do fine, but others just won't. Her school opened up again in a hybrid mode to begin with two days a week and she became a little happier when that started. They went back to five days a week maybe a month ago and she's been so much happier. She constantly talks about how all she wants is for the virus to stay down where they can keep going.
Yea. The numbers are surging in PA so I decided to have a talk with my daughter to start the conversation about her having to go back to on-line learning again and she was having no part of it - she wants to go to school. It's heartbreaking. And it's going to be a really long winter when the inevitable happens.
But yet conservatives are called monsters for wanting their kids back in school! I have a 3rd and 6th grader and it sucks, big time! These kids need to be back on school, period.
I think that's a good idea. I've also started preparing my daughter for the possibility it may not last. We got fortunate in that her last year's teachers looped up with her class as they were normally 5th grade teachers and had been moved to 4th grade last year due to enrollment by grade. She loves them and having them again has at least made her feel better. We've had a few districts in the state have individual schools close due to outbreaks but so far her school and really her entire district has fared pretty well. I will admit she has been a little snake bit. The day her hybrid group was supposed to start school there was an accident that morning near the school that knocked out their power and kept them from going for their first day, which was on a Friday. So she had to wait another week to start. I had her with me that day and thought she was going to totally unravel.
I’m sorry, but that sounds a little fishy. Did their family members not have COVID? Who in the hospital coded COVID incorrectly? How did they become aware of the incorrect coding?
Absolutely, most COVID deaths occur in people with comorbidies. But outside of trauma, this is true for every major cause of death. People seldom die with just one medical problem.
A good friend from college told us years ago about how her cousin’s roommate had his organs harvested in a hotel room in Las Vegas. She was dead serious. I have no doubt that she believed what she was telling us.
I'll ask if you know the answer to this because I know you're in the field, has there been a study or grouping of Covid related fatalities by remaining life expectancy?
