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Milkman

WHO'S YOUR #1 SLEEPER THIS YEAR?

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12 hours ago, Milkman said:

Interesting take. I don't think teams do that. 

There were games last year where it seemed they were trying hard to target Goedert and avoiding Ertz.  

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2 minutes ago, Sam Quentin said:

There were games last year where it seemed they were trying hard to target Goedert and avoiding Ertz.  

Well you're talking to the wrong guy with regards to that. Goedert is clearly better imo. 

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4 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I posted earlier about this in a different thread but can’t find it. Someone suggested White would have crazy reception totals like CMC. The issue I had was White only played 40% of the snaps and is not an every down back. Brady actually targeted White more than CMC was targeted in CAR on a percentage basis. Unlike the Panthers, NE uses plenty of RB, so I doubt White would get more work. The Pats are said to be trying to get multiple backs involved in the passing game, so White might not even get as many targets. He was the RB19 in PPR last year, so he will probably be in the RB20-25 range. IMO, you could probably get production in that range from McKinnon this year (who is barely a blip on the fantasy radar).

Hmmmmm, he has 2 other RBs firmly in front of him. Tev Coleman might not have been great last year but they didn't cut him or run him out of town, think 2nd year in that SF offense, he also isn't high on most radars. I think you could own both relatively cheap but I agree on McKinnon to some degree.  

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2 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Hmmmmm, he has 2 other RBs firmly in front of him. Tev Coleman might not have been great last year but they didn't cut him or run him out of town, think 2nd year in that SF offense, he also isn't high on most radars. I think you could own both relatively cheap but I agree on McKinnon to some degree.  

White had 67 carries last year. He's only had more than that once in his 6 years in the league. He is likely going to end up behind Michel, Harris, Newton, and maybe even Burkhead in terms of carries.

McKinnon will probably take over some of Breida's role in the Niners offense (he averaged 160 touches the last two years). McKinnon will likely be more of a 3rd down / COP / receiving back. In 2018, Breida/Morris/Wilson combined for 47-432-2. McKinnon ranked RB17 in his last year with the Vikings. Who knows what that translates to for him in SFO this year.

Since becoming a regular, White has ranked RB41, RB26, RB38, RB7, and RB19. IMO, 2018 is the outlier, as he got twice as many TD as in any other season.

White last year had an ADP of RB25/54 overall last season and ended the year as RB19 in PPR leagues. White this year has an ADP of RB32/77 overall in expert leagues. McKinnon has an ADP of RB58/202 overall.

White will probably finish pretty close to last year and McKinnon may not be that far off. There's nothing wrong with picking White, but McKinnon 125 picks later may end up being the better value even if he does not quite produce as much as White.

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I'm in on the Goedert talk.  I own him in every league.  Equally, Herndon at the TE position.

 

Also, Bryce Love for the RB spot.

Edited by Krilons Resa

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9 hours ago, Sam Quentin said:

There were games last year where it seemed they were trying hard to target Goedert and avoiding Ertz.  

Probably because Ertz was being triple teamed when all Philly receivers were injured.

Edited by Mongidig

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11 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

DeSean Jackson could be a Top 20 WR in Week 1

That's a sleeper

I took him as my WR5 in 2 leagues and am starting him in both - one over leveon bell.

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This is so hard this year. Truncated offseason. No preseason to get a looksee. I think generally preseason sleepers can be found with new players in new situations or systems. I like what Rivers may do in the Colts’ offense. I’ll throw Parris Campbell out there for that reason.

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15 hours ago, Mongidig said:

I think Jonnu Smith is this years Mark Andrews. 

I like Jonnu, but won't go quite that high. I'll be happy with him just producing as a decent TE1.

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11 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I like Jonnu, but won't go quite that high. I'll be happy with him just producing as a decent TE1.

I’ll be very happy with him finishing as a TE 1 considering I waited late to get one. The Andrews comparison is probably a bit lofty because I don’t think Jonnu will get 90ish targets. I do think Jonnu will be very efficient. He will be one of the top two targets. He has insane athletic ability. Like Andrews you could pick him up in later rounds and there is a lot of buzz surrounding him. I should have said he is this years Andrews/Waller. 

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N Hines RB IND

He may not be a Danny Woodhead but he will play one on TV

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38 minutes ago, daylight said:

N Hines RB IND

He may not be a Danny Woodhead but he will play one on TV

I hope so, I need him or Hyde to step up in one league. (Hyde is one of my deeper picks, don't expect a ton but could be a solid rb3) 

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Most were down on James Washington and while D Johnson is getting all the hype, I think Washington will surprise with his down field catching this year.

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11 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Most were down on James Washington and while D Johnson is getting all the hype, I think Washington will surprise with his down field catching this year.

The problem with this is he's not going to get the snaps imo. Claypool is going to eat into a lot of his snaps because he's an elite blocker. Diontae Johnson is banged up already though so an injury could open the door for Washington but if there is no significant injury I see Washington getting less snaps than last year. 

Edited by Milkman
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I like the Cam Newton call. McDaniels will get more out of him than Norv Turner or whoever else in Charlotte usually did. I'd bet they run an offense like the Ravens or Tebow's Broncos. I don't see how Cam has less value in New England than Carolina even though he's older now.

Also like hot sauce man's call of Emmanuel Sanders. Precision route running combined with Brees is a great combination. And he's fast enough to do some of the things Ginn used to do.

I'll go with Parris Campbell for mine. Opposed to a Jamison Crowder type, Paris offers WR1 potential. Fluid, fast, and a great with the ball in his hands. Hopefully he's learned the position because the offense offers a great opportunity. Philip Rivers is a wide receiver's friend; for all his warts, is not afraid to chuck it. He should have a lot of time in the pocket behind the Colts offensive line which helps a deep threat like Campbell.

Indy's defense should be pretty good which might add some concern. Closer games, perhaps less pass attempts and less aggressiveness from Rivers. But I don't care. 

Edited by cloppbeast
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Devin Asiasi.

A deep stash. The Pats drafted him in the third and desperately need pass catchers. He's an impressive athlete. I think the Pats are gonna utilize their TE's plenty. I've heard good things about him from camp.  

He did have an ankle injury recently so this might set his progression back a bit. He is expected to be available.  Ryan Izzo is a good blocker so he will be a given at one TE spot. 

He's probably more of a guy to monitor than pick up. 

Edited by Mongidig

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Not sure we can consider Anthony Miller a sleeper, but he gonna blow up. 

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1 hour ago, -jb- said:

Not sure we can consider Anthony Miller a sleeper, but he gonna blow up. 

Sleep walking maybe 

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Been watching a few of the high stakes drafts and can't help but notice Laviska Shenault creeping up the boards. Went ahead of Aiyuk last night.

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1 minute ago, JamieMurphy said:

Been watching a few of the high stakes drafts and can't help but notice Laviska Shenault creeping up the boards. Went ahead of Aiyuk last night.

Yeah the game scripts are going to be juicy. 

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2 minutes ago, JamieMurphy said:

Been watching a few of the high stakes drafts and can't help but notice Laviska Shenault creeping up the boards. Went ahead of Aiyuk last night.

As he did in the draft I had last night. I took Aiyuk a few picks after someone else took Shenault.

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4 hours ago, Milkman said:

The problem with this is he's not going to get the snaps imo. Claypool is going to eat into a lot of his snaps because he's an elite blocker. Diontae Johnson is banged up already though so an injury could open the door for Washington but if there is no significant injury I see Washington getting less snaps than last year. 

Maybe. 

I'm not ready to call him elite in the NFL. He definitely could be, but down field blocking in the NFL can take a while to learn (to be elite). 

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2 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Maybe. 

I'm not ready to call him elite in the NFL. He definitely could be, but down field blocking in the NFL can take a while to learn (to be elite). 

Tic Toc on Washington bro 

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12 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Tic Toc on Washington bro 

I have no idea what you're talking about. 🤔

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2 hours ago, JamieMurphy said:

Been watching a few of the high stakes drafts and can't help but notice Laviska Shenault creeping up the boards. Went ahead of Aiyuk last night.

Loved watching Laviska at Univ of Colorado.  Hes a gamer and his teammates will love him.  Wouldn't be surprised if he puts up some nice number this year.

 

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35 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I have no idea what you're talking about. 🤔

Time is a ticking maybe?

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Time is a ticking maybe?

Ah, so not the dance app? 

For this year, I'd bet on Washington over claypool. 2021 on, claypool is probably the 3

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8 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Ah, so not the dance app? 

For this year, I'd bet on Washington over claypool. 2021 on, claypool is probably the 3

I can see that. Which means Washington will lose some snaps to Claypool this year and probably put up less numbers than last year. Even if he only loses 25-30% of his snaps. 

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9 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I can see that. Which means Washington will lose some snaps to Claypool this year and probably put up less numbers than last year. Even if he only loses 25-30% of his snaps. 

Agree. Which likely means I'd avoid both in redraft

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5 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Agree. Which likely means I'd avoid both in redraft

Yeah i don't like either in redraft. Love Claypool in dynasty though. 

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I would be concerned about any rookie receiver in a year with hardly any practice. They most likely will be WAY behind the learning curve compared to rookies in regular years. 

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23 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

DeSean Jackson could be a Top 20 WR in Week 1

That's a sleeper

I snagged him in my distance TD league and obviously he's starting!  If he can somehow stay healthy, he's a legit top 15 WR, easy......huge if though.

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4 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I would be concerned about any rookie receiver in a year with hardly any practice. They most likely will be WAY behind the learning curve compared to rookies in regular years. 

History has shown us rookie RB's can almost just plug and play, and if they can pass pro, they can play all 3 downs.....WR timing with QB, and route tree take time.......so yea, I think ur right.  Seems like a good season for vets, in general....like the dudes who may sit out the week just to be fresh.

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28 minutes ago, Manster said:

History has shown us rookie RB's can almost just plug and play, and if they can pass pro, they can play all 3 downs.....WR timing with QB, and route tree take time.......so yea, I think ur right.  Seems like a good season for vets, in general....like the dudes who may sit out the week just to be fresh.

Agreed. I like this take. 

Does Kyler Murray count as a sleeper relative to his ADP? I like him as a top 10 qb 

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1 hour ago, AndrewClark said:

Agreed. I like this take. 

Does Kyler Murray count as a sleeper relative to his ADP? I like him as a top 10 qb 

Top 10 is a lock. Is he going to go nuclear is the question.  

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7 hours ago, AndrewClark said:

Agreed. I like this take. 

Does Kyler Murray count as a sleeper relative to his ADP? I like him as a top 10 qb 

Without looking it up, isn’t his ADP top six?

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51 minutes ago, Sam Quentin said:

Without looking it up, isn’t his ADP top six?

He was the 3rd QB taken in my snake and tied for 3rd most expensive in my auction.

NOT a sleeper to the folks in my leagues.  

Overall I think his ADP was definitely top six. 

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13 minutes ago, VaTerp said:

He was the 3rd QB taken in my snake and tied for 3rd most expensive in my auction.

NOT a sleeper to the folks in my leagues.  

Overall I think his ADP was definitely top six. 

Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Wilson, Watson, Murray...but I could see him going top three in that group

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9 hours ago, AndrewClark said:

Agreed. I like this take. 

Does Kyler Murray count as a sleeper relative to his ADP? I like him as a top 10 qb 

He ranked 9th last year. 

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On 9/6/2020 at 7:42 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I targeted Rodney Dangerf-er, Emmanuel Sanders hard - every mock I made sure I knew roughly the WR tier where to take him, I wrote down his name in sharpee on my notepad while I drafted, and added him to my shortlist. 

IDP, so ADP kinda goes out the window but got him as my WR6 super late. When I picked him everyone on our Zoom groaned & after the draft I had several offers starting with “i figure a 16th round pick is worth blah blah blah” - so even wanting him; they don’t wanna pay for him.  Yet. 

Brees is gonna love this dude. He’s not going to have a WR1-type career year, but he’s a reliable WR2 who runs clean routes and has sure hands. And he’s going to see just butter soft coverage with Thomas getting doubled, Kamara & Cook underneath & even Tre’Quan Smith to be accounted for. - I could see 75/800/6 for ESanders, and he’s a very late pick.

i don’t know why he’s not getting any respect in fantasy circles - I read one article after he signed that said “the saints don’t use their WR2” and I couldn’t help but think, “they haven’t had a capable one pretty much ever”. So chicken & the egg.

Manny Sanders is your 2020 steal of the draft. 

Thomas now likely out “multiple weeks” per Rotoworld.

This sleeper may be waking up fast. 

TreQuan may be a sneaky good pickup too. 

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On 9/7/2020 at 7:59 AM, [icon] said:

Cam will finish as a QB1... possibly in the QB5-QB8 range 

Currently ~QB5

On 9/7/2020 at 8:21 AM, [icon] said:

 

 

1) This is still New England. Belichick and McDaniels are still running the show. They are still going to win 9-10 games. 

2) Defense taking a notable step back. This means higher scoring games. 

3) Cam is healthy. Healthy Cam generally posts 500-600 and 5-10 TD on the ground. 550yds would have been #2 in QB Rushing last year. 5 RuTD would have been #4 in QB Rushing last year. Even assuming Belichick/McDaniels somehow don't play to his strengths, I think ~350/5 is his rushing floor and that's good for ~QB5 on the ground. 

4) Cam is on a 1 year incentive-laden deal. This is Cam's 2nd NFL tryout. Contract year... Big year = Payday.

5) Chemistry was a concern but seems good. Cam talking about this being a "match made in heaven". 

6) PFF grades them as the easiest QB schedule in the NFL. 

7) Belichick is the master of squeezing value out of players, and playing/scheming to their strengths. This offense will be on Cam's shoulders.

FINAL POINT. 
Between 2011-2018 (Cam's full seasons), Here is a list of QBs who have more top 12 weeks than Cam Newton: 

1) Drew Brees
2) Tom Brady 

 

2 for 2 in  Top 12 weeks so far (QB12 & QB4)... he's delivering that consistency we were hoping for (and getting better). 
 

On 9/7/2020 at 8:48 AM, [icon] said:

To be fair, I said QB1 with chance at QB5-8 range finish. QB5 would be the absolute top end of what I'm calling for. 
 

FFCalc has Cam as QB16. 
 

Brady averaged 4300yds the last 3 years. I think 3500 is optimistic but doable for Cam. 

My midline range for him would prob be: 
3300-3400 Pass / 24-26 TD / 300-350 Rush / 5-7 TD

 


Current Pace: 4400 Pass Yds / 8TD / 8 INT // 976 Rush Yds / 32 Rush TD :lol: 

It's still early... and I think it's safe to say the balance of Pass TD / Rush TD will shift a bit, but barring injury Cam is looking very likely to land right in that QB5-8 range where I was hoping he would. A steal for a guy who was going as a Mid/Low QB2 this year in most drafts. 

 

 

Edited by [icon]
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10 minutes ago, [icon] said:

Currently ~QB5

 

2 for 2 in  Top 12 weeks so far (QB12 & QB4)... he's delivering that consistency we were hoping for (and getting better). 
 


Current Pace: 4400 Pass Yds / 8TD / 8 INT // 976 Rush Yds / 32 Rush TD :lol: 

It's still early... and I think it's safe to say the balance of Pass TD / Rush TD will shift a bit, but barring injury Cam is looking very likely to land right in that QB5-8 range where I was hoping he would. A steal for a guy who was going as a Mid/Low QB2 this year in most drafts. 

 

 

Real nice thing about Cam is he can give QB1 numbers with any game script, if they way ahead and running the ball, he can still score points.  

There will be some shootouts. Pats absurdly overrated pass defense will give up yardage vs good QBs. This isn't quite as sweet a schedule this year.

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