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TripItUp

NFL Betting - (more focused than general thread)

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Nobody really talks NFL betting and I'm a pretty hardcore, dedicated, winning NFL bettor.  

I wanted to gage the interest in having a standalone thread for NFL betting in particular in this forum.  The general wagering thread is not very interesting or useful to me.  NFL lines typically aren't discussed at all until the day of games.

Please post if you have interest.

 

 

Edited by TripItUp
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Works for me. I found my fantasy hobby and research helped immensely to win on nfl football. Once I stopped betting on hockey baseball and other such things I stayed a steady winner. 

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Will we be allowed to discuss things like road teams with animal mascots coming off 3 straight losses and when the head coach eats fried chicken the night before are 14-2 ATS in the next game?

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How do you guys think the pandemic season might effect teams during the first couple of weeks? No pre-season so I think there might be a chance to have an edge here. 

Maybe offenses aren't up to speed so bet some unders? Go under on offensive player props? I'd love to hear any other leans. 

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Nobody really talks NFL betting and I'm a pretty hardcore, dedicated, winning NFL bettor.  

I wanted to gage the interest in having a standalone thread for NFL betting in particular in this forum.  The general wagering thread is not very interesting or useful to me.  NFL lines typically aren't discussed at all until the day of games.

Please post if you have interest.

 

 

Absolutely interested to read your thoughts and process.

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I will follow along.  My state doesn't allow sports betting yet, but I can drive a half hour and get to a place that does.  I already have a week one parlay ticket in just to kick the year off.

 

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Would be curious to talk some arbitrage bets with bonuses. Draft Kings and a few others are advertising like crazy in my state with stuff like $500 free matched bets, etc.

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I'm a prop and totals guy.  In-game wagering would always be welcome also.  

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If the Chiefs go down by 14 in any game this season I am doing an in-game bet for the chiefs to win.

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11 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

If the Chiefs go down by 14 in any game this season I am doing an in-game bet for the chiefs to win.

In-game in the AFC championship was a tour de force.

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DK’s KC +101 no brainer offer seems like free money. I threw the max $50 on it. 

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1 minute ago, facook said:

In-game in the AFC championship was a tour de force.

Wait, I mean the Texans game.  Whichever that was.

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6 hours ago, eoMMan said:

Will we be allowed to discuss things like road teams with animal mascots coming off 3 straight losses and when the head coach eats fried chicken the night before are 14-2 ATS in the next game?

Yes.  Encouraged.

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11 hours ago, Courtjester said:

DK’s KC +101 no brainer offer seems like free money. I threw the max $50 on it. 

It is

Me too

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Question for the group.

I can't place that DK bet on the Chiefs here in Ohio because it is not one of the 8 states.  However, Indiana is, and I can be there in 20 minutes.  Will the app check my location and allow me to place a bet if I am within the state lines of Indiana, or will it be based on where my account is registered?

Betting +101 on KC would definitely be worth driving over the state line, but I don't want to waste my time if it won't let me do it.

TIA

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39 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Question for the group.

I can't place that DK bet on the Chiefs here in Ohio because it is not one of the 8 states.  However, Indiana is, and I can be there in 20 minutes.  Will the app check my location and allow me to place a bet if I am within the state lines of Indiana, or will it be based on where my account is registered?

Betting +101 on KC would definitely be worth driving over the state line, but I don't want to waste my time if it won't let me do it.

TIA

You can register, fund, and receive money from any state, but you must be in Indiana to place the wager.  I'm in the same boat, on the Mich/Indiana line.  We don't have the apps yet.  

Edited by FairWarning
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4 minutes ago, FairWarning said:

You can register, fund, and receive money from any state, but you must be in Indiana to place the wager.  I'm in the same boat, on the Mich/Indiana line.  We don't have the apps yet.  

is this tied to the regular DK app, or is it a different app altogether and a different account?

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1 minute ago, Caesar said:

is this tied to the regular DK app, or is it a different app altogether and a different account?

Different app, different account.  Fanduel is in Indiana for gambling also, by me in Michigan City.

Edited by FairWarning
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When Ohio gets the apps, you'll have to sign up to play in your state.  I don't think you get the bonus though if its offered.

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I was hoping for more serious discussion and breakdown of handicapping games...clearly that's not where this is going.  It was worth a try.  Probably a reason that doesn't exist here.

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Can you provide your last 5 years record and ROI for review and then your picks for this week?

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

I was hoping for more serious discussion and breakdown of handicapping games...clearly that's not where this is going.  It was worth a try.  Probably a reason that doesn't exist here.

Well . . . maybe post such content?  Here, even, in the thread you started?  

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1 hour ago, FairWarning said:

Different app, different account.  Fanduel is in Indiana for gambling also, by me in Michigan City.

Interesting thing.  I downloaded the app and it let me log in under my DK account.   It shows I have a cash balance in there, but it is different than my daily DK account balance.  I have NO idea where that money came from.  :whoosh:

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

I was hoping for more serious discussion and breakdown of handicapping games...clearly that's not where this is going.  It was worth a try.  Probably a reason that doesn't exist here.

Yeah.  I'm not really sure what you were hoping for.  I'm sure there are very few, if any, professional sports bettors on here.  It is only legal in a few states so far, and most of those states, it is fairly new.

I don't think people are really putting in the research and work for handicapping games when they are not able to bet em.  (although, I could argue they should if they plan to in the future)

If there are lines or props that stick out as crazy obvious, I guess people could post that here.  I listened to a podcast this morning with a pro sports bettor on, and it was pretty interesting.  I think the biggest thing I took away from it was to shop books and get the best prices on props.  Its even possible to shop the books and find conflicting numbers that can guarantee a win by betting both.

Problem is, for most people right now, there just aren't that many books they can look at or bet at to make a difference because they are limited by their state laws.  If I thought I could find a guaranteed winner once every four weeks by shopping different sports books, I would be love doing all that research.

Sorry if that's not making sense.  I am still a little bitter its not legal in Ohio, and probably won't be as long as Scooter is the gov'na.

Edited by Caesar

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I just want to know what kind of win rate we’re taking here before I get too involved 

58%?  67%?

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1 minute ago, Caesar said:

 

I don't think people are really putting in the research and work for handicapping games when they are not able to bet em.  (although, I could argue they should if they plan to in the future)

 

Yeah, that's what I gathered...probably not worth my time.  I really want to find other serious handicappers that I can compare notes with.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

I was hoping for more serious discussion and breakdown of handicapping games...clearly that's not where this is going.  It was worth a try.  Probably a reason that doesn't exist here.

You serious? This thread was started less than 24 hours ago and has already had multiple people say this is something they are interested in. 

Like others have said, if you want to stimulate conversation, then post where you are leaning on a game and see where that goes. 

I can tell you I am far from a professional gambler and it has only been legal here in Colorado for a little over 4 months, but I have not even begun to look at Football games yet. With Covid still a constant threat, I imagine a lot of sources are going to take a wait and see approach before handicapping games this early in the week. 

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On 9/7/2020 at 4:39 PM, leftcoastguy7 said:

How do you guys think the pandemic season might effect teams during the first couple of weeks? No pre-season so I think there might be a chance to have an edge here. 

Maybe offenses aren't up to speed so bet some unders? Go under on offensive player props? I'd love to hear any other leans. 

It’s going to be tough.  I’ll mainly play in-game early.in the season.  

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TripItUp - lets face it, no one really knows anything when there are no preseason games to form some sort of opinion.  

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Pretty sure it’s just an elaborate fishing trip, hence the reason we have no documented record

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Not big on teasers early but I am using KC -2 in 7-point teasers.  

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Most people aren't handicapping NFL games, and most people who claim to be handicapping NFL games are terrible at it.  In particular, anyone who's waiting for legal sportsbooks to show up in their state would be wasting their time trying to win money on NFL - if they were good enough to make money betting NFL they'd already be doing it offshore.  

Content that would be useful to most of this community is more along the lines of this: 

On 9/7/2020 at 5:29 PM, Buckna said:

Would be curious to talk some arbitrage bets with bonuses. Draft Kings and a few others are advertising like crazy in my state with stuff like $500 free matched bets, etc.

A new user in NJ right now could make something like $5k+ cash, completely risk-free, in no more than a week or so if they max out every sportsbook's welcome offer (there are something like 18 books now).  I imagine it is, or will be, the same in every other state where sports betting is legalized and all these same books enter eventually.  Take the free money first.  Then if you want to burn some betting NFL sides, go for it.  But don't waste the opportunity to take the free money when the books are giving it out. 

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5 minutes ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Most people aren't handicapping NFL games, and most people who claim to be handicapping NFL games are terrible at it.  In particular, anyone who's waiting for legal sportsbooks to show up in their state would be wasting their time trying to win money on NFL - if they were good enough to make money betting NFL they'd already be doing it offshore.  

Content that would be useful to most of this community is more along the lines of this: 

A new user in NJ right now could make something like $5k+ cash, completely risk-free, in no more than a week or so if they max out every sportsbook's welcome offer (there are something like 18 books now).  I imagine it is, or will be, the same in every other state where sports betting is legalized and all these same books enter eventually.  Take the free money first.  Then if you want to burn some betting NFL sides, go for it.  But don't waste the opportunity to take the free money when the books are giving it out. 

There is likely a stipulation you have to play through your bonus winnings MULTIPLE times before you can withdraw anything.

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4 hours ago, Dan Lambskin said:

I just want to know what kind of win rate we’re taking here before I get too involved 

58%?  67%?

Were FBGs. Expect a win rate of 100%.

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13 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

There is likely a stipulation you have to play through your bonus winnings MULTIPLE times before you can withdraw anything.

When I first joined DK I got a $100 bonus match. Problem was they only paid it out at 10% of what you bet . On top of that you only had 90 days to collect it all so I only got like $20 of it.

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16 minutes ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

There is likely a stipulation you have to play through your bonus winnings MULTIPLE times before you can withdraw anything.

For the most part there isn't.  I've done it at just about every online book in NJ, typically you either get a 1x playthrough requirement, or the risk-free bet is refunded as a "free bet" that doesn't return the stake, only the winnings.  In any case, it's all still free money if you do it right.  Can easily clear $5k as a new user with little effort and literally no risk. 

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1 hour ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

There is likely a stipulation you have to play through your bonus winnings MULTIPLE times before you can withdraw anything.

Draft Kings is advertising $500 deposit bonus match that is 25x playthrough but also a $500 first bet match that is not in my state.

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2 hours ago, FairWarning said:

Not big on teasers early but I am using KC -2 in 7-point teasers.  

If you can get -110 2 team 6 pt teasers Atl +8/Bal -2 makes all the sense in the world.

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35 minutes ago, facook said:

If you can get -110 2 team 6 pt teasers Atl +8/Bal -2 makes all the sense in the world.

Grabbed it +8.5/-1.5, falcons one of my least favorite teams to bet on though, they’ll find a way to blow it for me

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7 hours ago, Aerial Assault said:

Well . . . maybe post such content?  Here, even, in the thread you started?  

Maybe he started it so he could steal OUR winning picks?

Link

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3 hours ago, Ben & Jerry's said:

I think with limited to no crowd noise, the offenses will have a substantial advantage early on.

Good one. I agree. Maybe not so much a big deal for the home team offense, but definitely for the visitor offense.

Going OVER on some visitor team totals might work out. 

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On 9/7/2020 at 7:47 PM, Courtjester said:

DK’s KC +101 no brainer offer seems like free money. I threw the max $50 on it. 

I did this but it didn't look like it registered. So I somehow did it twice. Now I have 2 bets, one pays $95.50 and the other $50.50. :shrug:

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20 minutes ago, brun said:

I did this but it didn't look like it registered. So I somehow did it twice. Now I have 2 bets, one pays $95.50 and the other $50.50. :shrug:

so, you can actually bet this at -10000?

that's awesome.  (not doing it, its still free money)

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54 minutes ago, Caesar said:

so, you can actually bet this at -10000?

that's awesome.  (not doing it, its still free money)

The promo is basically a giveaway. Don't see any downside. 

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8 minutes ago, brun said:

The promo is basically a giveaway. Don't see any downside. 

Yeah, it's just a acquisition / reactivation bonus disguised as absurd odds.  It's max bet of $50 so they're capping the cost from their end, but otherwise it is literally free money that anyone in an eligible state should be taking.  

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19 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Yeah, that's what I gathered...probably not worth my time.  I really want to find other serious handicappers that I can compare notes with.

I doubt that must successful professional gamblers would voluntarily post their notes and predictions on a public platform for free.  Odds and lines change as betting dollars come in.   I don't doubt that you are a successful gambler--and if you are--the last thing you'd want to do is post and share your thoughts/picks-as that would result in funneling more money towards those picks and making the line less appealing.  

Secondly---I do think that this particular year (especially in the first 2-3 weeks)--trying to establish expectations for how teams will look without any preseason is going to be a bit of a shot in the dark.   Maybe experienced gamblers are privy to information and data that the average recreational gamblers are not aware of--and if so--that's probably more reason why the professionals would be hesitant to just post and share information. 

Edited by jvdesigns2002
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1 hour ago, Caesar said:

so, you can actually bet this at -10000?

that's awesome.  (not doing it, its still free money)

It’s -110

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38 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

It’s -110

yeah, I get that as the odds boost (free money) bet they are allowing up to $50

But he said he made a second bet and it pay 50.50, which is -10000.   If you look at the bet on DK, it has -10000 lined out and replaced with the -110

I was just surprised you could actually bet it at -10000.   Easiest 1% 1 day turnaround ever?

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