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Ministry of Pain

Coach Mike McCarthy: Countdown to the End

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Agreed with the bolded. 
 

Disagree with the call, but we all have our takes on that. Probably split 50-50 by the FF community. Eh, for 2020 it’s probably 65-35 to go for it. 

I feel like about 80% of the posters in here have said it was a bad decision to go for it.

Had they gained half a yard more, it would be 80% of the posters here saying it was a good decision to go for it.

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18 minutes ago, TVT 0 N S T A said:

It's 3 yards and you talk about defensive momentum but our offense was rolling.  The fact that Dak did not execute doesn't make the decision poor either.  It's a 2 way street.  They had CeeDee with 10 yards of separation and 3 yards to gain.  Statistically, you would be an idiot not to call that play.  Glad he did it.  

At this point, you are making things up.  Because, had he made that first down - you would be guilty of the very thing you are accusing me of.  In fact, I am not making any direct relation to the outcome based on correlation.  Causation is the culprit.  Dak held the ball too long - had nothing to do with McCarthy's play call.  Dak just needs to play better.  McCarthy isn't going to protect Dak.  Dak is in a contract year and we need to see if he can make the right decisions on plays like that.  Ball is out 2 seconds earlier and it's a first down.

And not 1 single thing you said has anything to do with the decision to go for it there.  Everything you said is about the play. 

And it’s all irrelevant to the question of whether he should have gone for it or not. It is a post hoc fallacy to look at the result of that decision (be it the play call or the result of that play call) as a justification to go for it or not.

I’m not “‘making things up”, I am saying very specifically why I believe it was a bad decision. Time left in the game, the game flow to that point, etc. 

you are free to disagree with my opinion. I don’t hold that against anyone. We all have our take. 

But you’re using a fallacy in attempt to disprove my take. 

And to your point, as I said above: even if he succeeded in getting the 1st down, it doesn’t guarantee the touchdown. What it does guarantee is taking some of that precious end-game time off of the clock, which potentially puts them at a disadvantage. so I did take that into account. I’m allowing for the possibility that they succeed there just as I’m allowing for the possibility they fail (which we don’t know until after McCarthy makes that call to go for it).

 Cnverting that 4th down doesn’t doesn’t ensure a TD. The only predictable outcome is “3 more downs” which take time off the clock. 

Whether it worked or not; whether Dak held on too long or not, whether it was a bad play or not - I content it was a bad decision.  Others will disagree. 

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32 minutes ago, tangfoot said:
2 hours ago, [scooter] said:

The decision was borderline -- this chart is right at the cutoff between "kick" and "go for it", while this chartthis chart and this chart say you should go for it (but the latter chart is from an XFL website, so it might be incorporating the XFL's 3-point PAT into the equation).

It's interesting that these charts do not take the score and time left into account.  This is a different decision in the 4th quarter than in the 1st quarter, and it's a different decision down by 3 vs tied or leading.

I couldn't find a chart that incorporated the score and the time remaining. I tried to look for similar scenarios at PFR but only found a few results. I expanded the parameters a bit (5-15 minutes left in the game, 2-6 yards to go, between the 5 and 25 yard lines) and only came up with 51 results.

In 50 out of 51 situations, the team trailing by 3 elected to try the field goal.

In 1 out of 51 situations, Mike McCarthy went for it and failed.

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4 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

In 1 out of 51 situations, Mike McCarthy went for it and failed.

sounds about right. :lol: 

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

i also take into consideration that it’s still no lock for them to score there. So let’s say they go for it & they’re successful. Now they move the chains and get 3 more downs. If the Rams done allow a TD, now DAL ties it up with much less time on the clock, which seemingly flips the script to LAR for a game-winning drive with little to no time left. 

The only way going for it makes sense is if they score the TD there. Otherwise they seem to hurt themselves. Unless I’m missing something there. 

Nor is a game tying field goal going through the uprights a lock. Just ask Randy Bullock or Rodrigo Blankenship. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Nor is a game tying field goal going through the uprights a lock. Just ask Randy Bullock or Rodrigo Blankenship. 

Also a fair point. 

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:
1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Nor is a game tying field goal going through the uprights a lock. Just ask Randy Bullock or Rodrigo Blankenship. 

Also a fair point. 

In the scenarios from my previous link, the FG was successful 43 out of 50 times, and the trailing team ended up winning 27 out of 50 times.

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2 hours ago, Deamon said:

I feel like about 80% of the posters in here have said it was a bad decision to go for it.

Had they gained half a yard more, it would be 80% of the posters here saying it was a good decision to go for it.

I think you are probably correct on those %s.  But i thought it was a completely moronic decision before the result.  I was thinking no way they snap the ball, they are going to try to make them jump. Even the element of surprise stupidity didnt help them convert in the end. 

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34 minutes ago, The Finist said:

I think you are probably correct on those %s.  But i thought it was a completely moronic decision before the result.  I was thinking no way they snap the ball, they are going to try to make them jump. Even the element of surprise stupidity didnt help them convert in the end. 

Maybe.  If he gets half a yard more they probably win the game and it is talked about all day as the ballsy, aggressive kind of style the Cowboys needed.

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6 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

the last thing I’d do is throw short of the sticks. 

This

It really just boils down to this

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4 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

This

It really just boils down to this

And IF you do, make it a screen to Elliott. Because he’s your best weapon. 

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Just curious. If they don’t call OPI on the last DAL drive, are we even discussing this?

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Just curious. If they don’t call OPI on the last DAL drive, are we even discussing this?

Probly not 

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Just curious. If they don’t call OPI on the last DAL drive, are we even discussing this?

Yes. lol

i was talking about it in the in-game thread as were others. 

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Would it have been discussed this much had they scored late to win.  Probably not. 

 

Was it a bad decision regardless of outcome?  Yes

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Let's talk about the game when it was 20-0 and 29-10 at the Half and...had they not made the late FG, I wonder what the talk would be today. 

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5 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Let's talk about the game when it was 20-0 and 29-10 at the Half and...had they not made the late FG, I wonder what the talk would be today. 

He would be getting #### for the 2 fake punts 

Not from me, I like it. It’s a welcome change from Red imo

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35 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Let's talk about the game when it was 20-0 and 29-10 at the Half and...had they not made the late FG, I wonder what the talk would be today. 

Don't forget about the julio drop for a sure TD

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I’ll take the win but this team looks like a 8-8 bunch to me. Not sure McCarthy is an upgrade at this point.

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What a terrific display of clock management and getting Dallas in a position to have a few strikes at the end zone when they were down 38-31 in the 4th...1:45 to start the drive, 3 timeouts, they had gotten to midfield with about 1:00+ left and all their timeouts, that's when for some reason they burned about 20 seconds going nowhere....

Awesome!!!

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3rd and 4, last drive about midfield with 3 timeouts and the clock running at about a minute left, you must score a TD not just kick a FG, no urgency as they line up and call the play on a critical 3rd down and the next few plays eat p time and get them almost nowhere. 

Poor Coaching and Leadership, he should have stepped right out there and called timeout as the head coach, no questions asked, he had 2 more to burn which is more than they usually have. 

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18 minutes ago, DEADHEAD said:

His clock management was a disaster in GB. Old dog, new tricks. I'm glad he's at Dallas.

Go Pack.

Exactly.  Packer fans have been talking about this for at least 5-6 years.  
 

I was on the fence about him until the “onside kick” game.  That was when I knew we were winning in spite of him.

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Posted (edited)

Fell behind 38-14

Going to end up letting a power running team score 49 points. 

49-38, Dak throws the lights out but most of it was very early and pretty late with a huge vacant middle where Dallas turned the ball over and gave Cleveland a lot of juice to beat them today. 

Miracle from 0-4 start but cream puff schedule ahead. 

Edited by Ministry of Pain

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"I thought it was a B/B+ hire but I was wrong, It's a D/D+ Hire after all"

-Colin Cowherd today on the Radio/FS1

He was critical of Rob Davis who I scratched around on and he was an executive with the packers for many years but I don't see Asst Head Coach anywhere except now. I see Philbin is working the OL, maybe that's good, IDK...Moore is still the OC. 

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10 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

"I thought it was a B/B+ hire but I was wrong, It's a D/D+ Hire after all"

-Colin Cowherd today on the Radio/FS1

He was critical of Rob Davis who I scratched around on and he was an executive with the packers for many years but I don't see Asst Head Coach anywhere except now. I see Philbin is working the OL, maybe that's good, IDK...Moore is still the OC. 

Packer fans have known for years that McCarthy isn’t a good coach.  Fans here were gleeful to see him end up in Dallas - a team none of us like.  Only place better would have been if he somehow took over Seattle.

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9 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Packer fans have known for years that McCarthy isn’t a good coach.  Fans here were gleeful to see him end up in Dallas - a team none of us like.  Only place better would have been if he somehow took over Seattle.

I was a McCarthy skeptic long before others caught on, I felt he rode the Super Bowl win far too long in Green Bay. Felt like Gruden got a quicker hook in Tampa Bay after he won the Super Bowl but I could be wrong on that. 

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McCarthy caught on in Dallas because thanks to Aaron Rodgers he has experience appeasing oversized egos while appearing to be a good head coach.

That’s the perfect life experience you walk into Jerry Jones’s office with for a HC interview.

Honestly as long as Jerry maintains the GM role or something like it Jason Garrett was probably the perfect match.

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15 minutes ago, jtp1982 said:

McCarthy caught on in Dallas because thanks to Aaron Rodgers he has experience appeasing oversized egos while appearing to be a good head coach.

That’s the perfect life experience you walk into Jerry Jones’s office with for a HC interview.

Honestly as long as Jerry maintains the GM role or something like it Jason Garrett was probably the perfect match.

Didn't I hear a rumor that Garrett was actually trying to help them in searching for their next coach? If that is even remotely true I interpret it as Garrett trying to protect an owner who was loyal to him and vice versa, he probably knows a lot of coaches simply would not tolerate Jones and his meddlesome ways. I can't imagine he could work with Belichick for a minute. And many others would want nothing to do with him. I praise Jones as an owner and an ambassador of the NFL but as a GM and such he is the main reason Dallas fails IMO. 

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1 minute ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Didn't I hear a rumor that Garrett was actually trying to help them in searching for their next coach? If that is even remotely true I interpret it as Garrett trying to protect an owner who was loyal to him and vice versa, he probably knows a lot of coaches simply would not tolerate Jones and his meddlesome ways. I can't imagine he could work with Belichick for a minute. And many others would want nothing to do with him. I praise Jones as an owner and an ambassador of the NFL but as a GM and such he is the main reason Dallas fails IMO. 

Which sucks because like you say I really like Jerry Jones as a football fan.  I live with a Dallas fan and thanks to a visit to ATT stadium two years ago Ive never enjoyed watching my Ravens play in person like I used to lol.

But ya, he’s holding them back.  Look at the serious contenders, the Chiefs got rid of Alex Smith based on how a rookie looked, the Ravens were suprised Lamar fell to them in the draft and they reorganized their whole offense around him, when the Rams were hot two years ago they had invested everything in a rookie head coaches vision.  
 

Dallas doesn’t have the flexibility to do what it takes to win because winning is a priority in Dallas, it’s not the priority.  Keeping Jerry happy is its own objective down there and that’s just too much to realistically accomplish when you’re trying to win super bowls in a league as competitive as the NFL.

Honestly makes me sad to say this, but Jerry Jones should have bought a baseball team.  He could have done it his way and with a more flexible cap structure probably had the success he deserves as an owner who really cares.

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3 minutes ago, jtp1982 said:

Which sucks because like you say I really like Jerry Jones as a football fan.  I live with a Dallas fan and thanks to a visit to ATT stadium two years ago Ive never enjoyed watching my Ravens play in person like I used to lol.

But ya, he’s holding them back.  Look at the serious contenders, the Chiefs got rid of Alex Smith based on how a rookie looked, the Ravens were suprised Lamar fell to them in the draft and they reorganized their whole offense around him, when the Rams were hot two years ago they had invested everything in a rookie head coaches vision.  
 

Dallas doesn’t have the flexibility to do what it takes to win because winning is a priority in Dallas, it’s not the priority.  Keeping Jerry happy is its own objective down there and that’s just too much to realistically accomplish when you’re trying to win super bowls in a league as competitive as the NFL.

Honestly makes me sad to say this, but Jerry Jones should have bought a baseball team.  He could have done it his way and with a more flexible cap structure probably had the success he deserves as an owner who really cares.

That's interesting, I also got to visit ATT STadium a couple years back, saw Wentz play, and at halftime Jones spoke or maybe it was prior to kick off but he had his Hall of Fame jacket on and the crowd went bananas, you could tell they just eat him up. 

I am a FL Native, Miami born and a Phinsfan...our owner get booed from the helicopter pad he lands on all the way into the Stadium, nobody likes that guy. I'm with you on a lot of this but it's never going to change until the day Jerry leaves the Earth but we've seen his son Stephen IMO do a pretty good job the more they hand the reigns over to him. 

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He has been the good luck charm that Dallas was looking for. 

McCarthy is going to have to do some soul searching and sit down with Dallas and JJ and talk in honest terms which is they can probably compete in a putrid Division and get waxed in the opening round of Playoffs, this year and maybe next year. 

They could try and make a trade for a veteran QB, i'll just throw out FitzMagic and could be had for a pretty reasonable pick I would think. You might laugh but Dallas is built to win now, and they need someone who can lead the offense and exploit what seems to be a ton of weapons. Dak is not guaranteed a thing next year, that's just a fact, perhaps a guy like Fitz on a pretty reasonable contract could likely lead them into the playoffs and maybe Dalton can do the same thing at this point in his career. 

They could trade for another young QB where things are not working out...I'll point to the Jets and Sam Darnold who could learn the playbook for a few weeks behind Dalton who could teach him and help him along. 

Dallas is too talented to fall down far enough to get Trevor Lawrence, they can probably win 5-6 games even if they don't trade for another QB. 

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4 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

He has been the good luck charm that Dallas was looking for. 

McCarthy is going to have to do some soul searching and sit down with Dallas and JJ and talk in honest terms which is they can probably compete in a putrid Division and get waxed in the opening round of Playoffs, this year and maybe next year. 

They could try and make a trade for a veteran QB, i'll just throw out FitzMagic and could be had for a pretty reasonable pick I would think. You might laugh but Dallas is built to win now, and they need someone who can lead the offense and exploit what seems to be a ton of weapons. Dak is not guaranteed a thing next year, that's just a fact, perhaps a guy like Fitz on a pretty reasonable contract could likely lead them into the playoffs and maybe Dalton can do the same thing at this point in his career. 

They could trade for another young QB where things are not working out...I'll point to the Jets and Sam Darnold who could learn the playbook for a few weeks behind Dalton who could teach him and help him along. 

Dallas is too talented to fall down far enough to get Trevor Lawrence, they can probably win 5-6 games even if they don't trade for another QB. 

Matt Stafford to Dallas.   Detroit will be moving on from Stafford and Jones has always like Stafford, plus he is a hometown guy.  Win..win.

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5 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

He has been the good luck charm that Dallas was looking for. 

McCarthy is going to have to do some soul searching and sit down with Dallas and JJ and talk in honest terms which is they can probably compete in a putrid Division and get waxed in the opening round of Playoffs, this year and maybe next year. 

They could try and make a trade for a veteran QB, i'll just throw out FitzMagic and could be had for a pretty reasonable pick I would think. You might laugh but Dallas is built to win now, and they need someone who can lead the offense and exploit what seems to be a ton of weapons. Dak is not guaranteed a thing next year, that's just a fact, perhaps a guy like Fitz on a pretty reasonable contract could likely lead them into the playoffs and maybe Dalton can do the same thing at this point in his career. 

They could trade for another young QB where things are not working out...I'll point to the Jets and Sam Darnold who could learn the playbook for a few weeks behind Dalton who could teach him and help him along. 

Dallas is too talented to fall down far enough to get Trevor Lawrence, they can probably win 5-6 games even if they don't trade for another QB. 

Of course Dallas is built to win now. They have a qb on a franchise tag and several other overpaid guys. They aren’t rebuilding by any means. 
 

When’s the last time a starting QB was traded during the season to start on another team? Dallas could probably get someone like Josh Rosen or maybe Stidham is NE has seen enough. I think Fitz may make some sense but Darnold no way. Anyone they get would probably be worse than Dalton

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3 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Of course Dallas is built to win now. They have a qb on a franchise tag and several other overpaid guys. They aren’t rebuilding by any means. 
 

When’s the last time a starting QB was traded during the season to start on another team? Dallas could probably get someone like Josh Rosen or maybe Stidham is NE has seen enough. I think Fitz may make some sense but Darnold no way. Anyone they get would probably be worse than Dalton

Think about the Jets for a minute...they are on a collision course for the No 1 pick at the rate they are going...do they need to get into Darnold Year 4? Time to flush the whole thing end of season, go 0-16 which with Gase won't be hard and Flacco left standing there, Jets get what they want and Dallas can get a young lively arm behind Dalton, a former high selection that just needs more pieces around him like what Dallas has in place. They can see what they got in Year 4-2021 before giving him any real money. Win WIn 

Edited by Ministry of Pain
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7 minutes ago, Da Guru said:

Matt Stafford to Dallas.   Detroit will be moving on from Stafford and Jones has always like Stafford, plus he is a hometown guy.  Win..win.

Great idea DG, I like that move. 

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15 hours ago, Da Guru said:

Matt Stafford to Dallas.   Detroit will be moving on from Stafford and Jones has always like Stafford, plus he is a hometown guy.  Win..win.

As a Lions fan and a Cooper/Zeke owner, I love this. No one deserves to get out of Detroit more than Stafford. 

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I bet my friend a case of beer he would be fired before week 16.  Then Dak got hurt which saved his job.  Dalton is going to put up great numbers!

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57 minutes ago, bucksoh said:

I bet my friend a case of beer he would be fired before week 16.  Then Dak got hurt which saved his job.  Dalton is going to put up great numbers!

To make sure I understand. Are you saying you didn't think McCarthy would complete a single season in Dallas?

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19 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Think about the Jets for a minute...they are on a collision course for the No 1 pick at the rate they are going...do they need to get into Darnold Year 4? Time to flush the whole thing end of season, go 0-16 which with Gase won't be hard and Flacco left standing there, Jets get what they want and Dallas can get a young lively arm behind Dalton, a former high selection that just needs more pieces around him like what Dallas has in place. They can see what they got in Year 4-2021 before giving him any real money. Win WIn 

Maybe it should be Matt Ryan and let Atlanta take T. Lawrence next year.  The Falcons are a team truly in the classic tank for the year.  Just fired their coach, decimated with injuries, etc.  If they could move Ryan right now to Dallas, that would be a good deal for them. 

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17 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

To make sure I understand. Are you saying you didn't think McCarthy would complete a single season in Dallas?

absurd 

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12 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

absurd 

If McCarthy has a losing record with an upgraded team from the one that was quite successful in 2019, it’s not terribly absurd. We have certainly seen coaches only last a year in this league before. 
 

If Dallas went 6-10 with Dak do you think McCarthy comes back in 2021? I’m not 100% sure on “yes”

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1 hour ago, bucksoh said:

I bet my friend a case of beer he would be fired before week 16.  Then Dak got hurt which saved his job.  Dalton is going to put up great numbers!

I'm not a big McCarthy fan but you shouldn't be drinking if this is you sober.

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