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FatNate

Week 3 FanDuel

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One thing I am TRYING to do better is have a more condensed player pool and core for gpps.  They are boom bust, but I also tend to have too many different LUs and then the one good one hits a little and still lose overall.   Probably better if I have 10LUs in a contest to have mostly similar ones - if they hit/cash then it carries me more.  If they don't, I am losing money, but I am doing that in the above scenario most times anyway.    Hence my idea of having a very tight group of RBs like Taylor/Sanders/Drake + at the most 2-3 others.  Maybe 3 Defs, etc.. 

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9 hours ago, FatNate said:

McKinnon or Singletary.

What say you?

I like McKinnon, but I am starting to lean Singletary. 

Not sure.  I have 0 of each on FD.   Seems like Singletary might be a little safer since there is no other RB there (still have the threat of Allen taking TDs though).  

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On 9/25/2020 at 1:48 PM, FatNate said:

What am I missing this week?

Everyone loves Elliott this week, but it seems Henry will owned at less than 20%.

Both have good matchups.  Both will get similar touches.

Elliott can not sustain 1.5 TDs per week, no more than Henry can keep producing 0 TDs per week.

The Cowboys offense is more dynamic, which can help and hurt.

The Titans offense is less formidable, which can help and hurt.

Just like last week, I will have more Henry than Elliott.

Hoping I can use that cost savings to invest in a winner.

Looking at stats I posted they are nearly identical.   Basically the same touch share, opportunities/game, RZ touches, etc..   The main difference between them is that Zeke gets more passing work, so there is a little less risk of his team getting behind and him not getting as much action.  Henry is more dependent on TDs since he is not active in the passing game.  

I think Henry is a good gpp play, and I just noticed that I have 0 so I am a bit nervous about that.  

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On 9/22/2020 at 12:13 PM, FatNate said:

KarmaPolice - Love the research and details.  Thanks for sharing.  I like how your strategy helps shrink the player pool.

I second this, appreciate you sharing your hard work with the group.

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30% on McKinnon.  Not using any other less than $6k RB, but I like several. Just finding I don’t need the savings. I am using Henry 3-1 compared to Elliott. And I love my Joe/AJ lineup. 

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My two odd ideas I had last night for my WTF 25cent entries was a Pitts/Houst game stack, and going back to the "jam in 3 monster RBs" and go cheap at WR LUs.  

Cam has upside and 2 really cheap WRs that have actually seen 20% targets during the last couple weeks, so I threw into the mix a few variations of this homer NE onslaught idea:

Cam -  Cook/Zeke/Sanders - Edelman/Byrd/Metcalf - Thomas - NE

 

 

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I like several of the $6k-$7k WR this week, but having the right ones will be the difference maker. 

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Sounds like Julio is going to sit.  I don’t trust Ridley at that price.  Does make me think I need more Gage and Hurst. 

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Good luck, all!! 

ETA:  Except in the contest we are all in from this thread. ;) 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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15th place.  Out of 15.  Very humbling.  105-pts. Urggggg.  Needed Cam to get a couple of those Burkhead TDs.  Wait, who am I kidding.  My contest lineup sucked.  Had one lineup get to 170-pts, but overall week three has been my worst effort of the NFL season. 

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Atrocious week here that I will try to erase from memory and move on.  Got pretty much skunked on DK, and not much better on FD.  Way too underweight on Russ and the chalk rbs stunk. 

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Cashing in this league saved my week. My cash line up finished 97-89 in 3 contests with 107.58. GPP scored 137.9 and missed cashing by under 2 points.

$12 in $14 out

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Single game slates saved me big last night.  DK showdown allowed me to go +$5 on the day over there after getting wiped out on the main slate.  

Still down about $30 on FD.  This is the LU I was rocking in cash:

Murray

Sanders/Taylor/Zeke

Edelman/DJMoore/Metcalf

L.Thomas

TB

 

I will have to look more, but 0 clue what happened to the 2 WRs that some of the highest target rates, etc.. on my lists in Moore and Edelman.  Were they bad plays? Maybe Moore since that put 2 in my lineup from teams with lower totals.   I wanted to get away from Drake a bit and go with one of the higher $ RBs, and obviously I picked the wrong one since Cook and Henry both put up about 10 more points.   Also chose incorrectly on the Seattle WRs, but Metcalf wasn't terrible.  Just trying to figure out if my reasoning is wrong with my cash LU, or if it was simply just picking the wrong players in similar pivot points with similar target and usage stats.  

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Week three is a perfect example my usual degenerate demise!  I play to many lineups and I pick the wrong QB to match the suckfest I put out at WR.  I let my player pool get to big, which forces me to want to enter more lineups (with different combinations) and it kills me every time!  And I never, ever learn from it!  I take my perceived to be 'best' lineup and enter it into a few extra contests, so when it tanks, the hole it makes in my bankroll is usually to deep for any of my other lineups to cover.  Is it week four yet?

 

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3 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

How does everyone split their cash vs. GPP bankrolls?

Very small stakes and volume but 3 cash entries and 1 gpp plus this league.

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4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

How does everyone split their cash vs. GPP bankrolls?

I don't have a hard #, but I need to start watching that more and sticking to a set amount.  I think I typically hover around the 75-25 split range.  It usually takes me about 5 weeks to get impatient with cash games and go more into gpps though.  :lol: 

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8 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Single game slates saved me big last night.  DK showdown allowed me to go +$5 on the day over there after getting wiped out on the main slate.  

Still down about $30 on FD.  This is the LU I was rocking in cash:

Murray

Sanders/Taylor/Zeke

Edelman/DJMoore/Metcalf

L.Thomas

TB

 

I will have to look more, but 0 clue what happened to the 2 WRs that some of the highest target rates, etc.. on my lists in Moore and Edelman.  Were they bad plays? Maybe Moore since that put 2 in my lineup from teams with lower totals.   I wanted to get away from Drake a bit and go with one of the higher $ RBs, and obviously I picked the wrong one since Cook and Henry both put up about 10 more points.   Also chose incorrectly on the Seattle WRs, but Metcalf wasn't terrible.  Just trying to figure out if my reasoning is wrong with my cash LU, or if it was simply just picking the wrong players in similar pivot points with similar target and usage stats.  

My cash lineup was similar

Cam, Zeke Taylor, Metcalf,Ridley, Slayton,Goedert,Sanders,Tampa

If I used any D other than tampa or IND I would have finished last in every 50/50

In one 50/50 the cash line was 126.50 but would only have won .23 because of a 30 person tie, lol

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15 lineups with QBs like Dak, Russ, Kyler.  But my best lineup started Mitchell Trubisky.  Go Figure.  Difference turned out to be Henry in the flex I had Josh Kelly in the others.

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Time to really forget this week and start on W4 research.  

Looks like a fun one-  8 games with a 50+ over/under??!! :shock:

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16 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Time to really forget this week and start on W4 research.  

Looks like a fun one-  8 games with a 50+ over/under??!! :shock:

In a way, kinda sucks because you have to stick to your guns on only a handful of the 8 to not spread your lineups too thin...

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+40 on FD, +60 on DK. not a great week, but ill take the small profits. 

playing more 5-10$ gpps than years past on both sites. The competition almost seems worse than the smaller contests. Hitting cash in every other gpp entry almost. couple combo lineups with russell/lockett/zeke/ridley did most of my damage. 

really liking these flash drafts on DK as well. look into them and we can discuss them if anyone likes. 

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