Anyone do any analysis of how no fans is impacting home field advantage? (1 Viewer)

Just wondering if anyone has looked into this at all, and if home field advantage should be discounted this year, kind of out of curiosity but also thinking about impact of playing fantasy players in home games.

i have usually streamed the best matchup home defense.  Thinking I will just stream the best matchup regardless of home/away from this point fwd.  

I think vegas has adjusted. Some radio guys said home is not worth 2.5-3pts this year.  More like 1.5.  Id be interested if someone found a link. 

You may find this interesting...NFL TEAMS are sometimes flying into the visiting city the day of or early Sunday Morning and not checking into hotels and flying out the same day. I'm not sure all teams are doing it but several are and I think it impacts games, quality and so forth. 

Here is an article they wrote over at Columbia on the subject and it says teams will fly in on Sunday Mornings...brutal to do that and play a football game. I have no idea what the records are so i'll look...8-8 Week 1 Home team vs Away Team, Week 2 the home team was 11-5 

Think its a bit early to tell...but from a Packer fan's perspective...I think it is definitely helping GB to have faced a road game in Minnesota with no fans...and now coming up on a road game in New Orleans with no fans.  Probably better to have those games early in the year without fans than later when fans may be there given the noise level that creates.  If nothing else...the Oline is likely quite thankful.  Former Packer Mark Tauscher has talked about this a lot on the radio the past several weeks.  That the mental aspect of going into loud stadiums would get to him...you know you had to be as quick as you could...and you dreaded those stadiums for hearing the snap counts and getting off quick to pick up the rush.

I heard a stat that home team won 5 of the 6 games with fans in stands. But I don't know how that compares to home team win % in the  games with empty stands.

I’m not sure with just 2 games played that there is enough data. Especially with so many other factors creating a lot of statistical noise. 

For instance, is the lack of crowd noise offset by traveling routines for visiting teams being so different and more difficult? If so, to what extent?

How much has strength of schedule played a part in outcomes versus crowd noise? We know pretty clearly some teams are good and some are bad, but are the Bills actually good? Are the Rams actually good? How much are their away wins due to them being that much better than their opponent versus their opponent not having any crowd noise?

I think those would be tough to figure out with such a small sample size.

would be interesting to see more data on this, but another thing to consider is that no preseason has probably had a far greater impact on games than empty home stadiums. it is hilarious that the broadcasters or stadium staff find it necessary to pump in the crowd noise, and they got it so wrong during the raiders game on mon night. on good plays for the raiders you heard little or no noise when clearly the Raider Nation would've gone crazy, and on on bad plays for the raiders like when n.o. would get a TD or a long pass play or 3rd down conversion, you heard the crowd cheering LOUDLY. when Richard fumbled there was a loud roar and excessive cheering noise. you would hear a pin drop in most stadiums with people in the stands.

it's just so cheesy of the NFL to do the noise thing. and pretty cheesy of them to have 3 new stadium openings and not allow any fans in them. l.a. x2, lvr. 

Tanner9919 said:

would be interesting to see more data on this, but another thing to consider is that no preseason has probably had a far greater impact on games than empty home stadiums. it is hilarious that the broadcasters or stadium staff find it necessary to pump in the crowd noise, and they got it so wrong during the raiders game on mon night. on good plays for the raiders you heard little or no noise when clearly the Raider Nation would've gone crazy, and on on bad plays for the raiders like when n.o. would get a TD or a long pass play or 3rd down conversion, you heard the crowd cheering LOUDLY. when Richard fumbled there was a loud roar and excessive cheering noise. you would hear a pin drop in most stadiums with people in the stands.

it's just so cheesy of the NFL to do the noise thing. and pretty cheesy of them to have 3 new stadium openings and not allow any fans in them. l.a. x2, lvr. 

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I don't think what we hear on broadcasts is what the players hear on the field.  I believe one of the pregame shows or an interview with players/coaches they said that every stadium just has a constant 70 decibel "fan noise" through the stadium speakers.  The sounds we hear on TV are not what they hear on the field. 

Anyone have access to how Vegas is setting lines differently?  I would think they've given this a lot of thought and research . . .

Dave Stauff said:

Anyone have access to how Vegas is setting lines differently?  I would think they've given this a lot of thought and research . . .

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Usually 3-3.5 points are awarded weekly to most home teams...so let's say you have an Interconference between someone like Lions vs Ravens where the Lions would likely be big underdogs. So on a neutral field it might be Baltimore -10 but in Detroit inside it might be -7, just as an example. 

Dave Stauff said:

Anyone have access to how Vegas is setting lines differently?  I would think they've given this a lot of thought and research . . .

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Last I had heard on radio was they downgraded home field a little to start the season...so if they were theoretically awarding 3 or so towards the home side..making it more like 2-2.5  (guy said it was about both the no crowds and the unknown of the start of the season and no preseason).

Gally said:

I don't think what we hear on broadcasts is what the players hear on the field.  I believe one of the pregame shows or an interview with players/coaches they said that every stadium just has a constant 70 decibel "fan noise" through the stadium speakers.  The sounds we hear on TV are not what they hear on the field. 

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correct. at the stadium it's a "baseline fan murmur" in a loop

Ministry of Pain said:

You may find this interesting...NFL TEAMS are sometimes flying into the visiting city the day of or early Sunday Morning and not checking into hotels and flying out the same day. I'm not sure all teams are doing it but several are and I think it impacts games, quality and so forth. 

Here is an article they wrote over at Columbia on the subject and it says teams will fly in on Sunday Mornings...brutal to do that and play a football game. I have no idea what the records are so i'll look...8-8 Week 1 Home team vs Away Team, Week 2 the home team was 11-5 

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Your link is from July. Is anyone actually doing this? 
Also, I think “brutal” is a bit exaggerated. Their planes would be akin to you sitting in your lazy boy and watching a movie and then a couple hours later, playing a football game. 

I’m sure I heard someone saying in the European soccer/foootball league say that scoring was down across the board with no fans around 

hasn’t seemed to affect the nfl, especially last week 

Sarlakticacid said:

I’m sure I heard someone saying in the European soccer/foootball league say that scoring was down across the board with no fans around 

hasn’t seemed to affect the nfl, especially last week 

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Seems to be advantageous to the offense in the nfl.

Sarlakticacid said:

I’m sure I heard someone saying in the European soccer/foootball league say that scoring was down across the board with no fans around 

hasn’t seemed to affect the nfl, especially last week 

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Is there any explanation for this?

Sample size wouldn't reveal anything meaningful.

Cjw_55106 said:

Your link is from July. Is anyone actually doing this? 
Also, I think “brutal” is a bit exaggerated. Their planes would be akin to you sitting in your lazy boy and watching a movie and then a couple hours later, playing a football game. 

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I heard it from another NFL fan and then when I googled I saw that article. The way it was written it seemed like that was going to be the gameplan. 

I just saw another article though and I will post that up because it would counter anything I said earlier...

Travel

After originally allowing teams to include up to 110 people as part of their traveling parties, the NFL reportedly told teams they will not be allowed to bring more than 70 staff members, including coaches and other essential gameday personnel, in addition to players. 

Team travel is restricted to just two groups of people — Tier 1 ("players and essential football personnel whose job function requires direct access to players for more than 10 minutes at a time on a regular basis") and Tier 2 ("other essential personnel who may need to be in close proximity to players and other Tier 1 individuals and who may need to access restricted areas periodically").

Physical distancing protocols while traveling will be mandated wherever possible, including separate hotel rooms, buses limited to no more than 50 percent capacity and at least one open seat between airplane passengers. Below are more of the NFL's rules for travel:

— No use of public or private transportation on the road to or in other cities

— Not permitted to leave the hotel to eat or otherwise use restaurants that are open to the public (room service or contactless delivery is permitted)

— No room visits by anyone other than team members of the traveling party

— No use of shared hotel facilities (pool, fitness center) unless it is limited to use by the traveling party and has been disinfected

According to ESPN, teams will not be allowed to travel on the day of games despite requests to do so. Also per ESPN, the NFL has a deal with a charter airline to fly individuals home separately in case somebody shows COVID-19 symptoms or tests positive for the virus while on the road.

Thanks for the feedback, you must be correct, but it's good to know vs just a rumor that seems to get passed around the sports bars...not that any of them are open of course where I am however...good job bud.