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Say goodbye to Hollywood

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The pandemic has probably killed it. Most movie theaters are within months of going broke without government intervention. Even the ones that have reopened are struggling to cover costs, let alone turn a profit. Hollywood keeps pushing back new releases. Disney just announced they are all in on their online platform, Disney+.

We will still have movies but it will never be the same.

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11 minutes ago, tommyboy said:

The pandemic has probably killed it. Most movie theaters are within months of going broke without government intervention. Even the ones that have reopened are struggling to cover costs, let alone turn a profit. Hollywood keeps pushing back new releases. Disney just announced they are all in on their online platform, Disney+.

We will still have movies but it will never be the same.

Nope.  Too much money at stake.  Hollywood will still produce movies.  Theaters may die or change, but Hollywood will go on.

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42 minutes ago, Pitchfork said:

Great now I'm going to have Eminem in my head all night. 

That's the first thing I thought of when I saw the link.

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5 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

Nah - it’s all coming back. Just a matter of time. 

I agree. There's still an experience of watching a movie on a big screen that you can't get at home. Granted, that's not an issue for the average FBG with our own massive indoor theaters, but it does matter for the general public. I think that theater revenue will be much less of the movie revenue pie, however.

When movie theaters do return, if they want to increase demand, they will likely need to dial back a bit the exorbitant admission prices.

Edited by zamboni
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6 hours ago, Pitchfork said:

Great now I'm going to have Eminem in my head all night. 

Billy Joel for me, but tomato/tomatoe.

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I honestly don't know what the solution is here.   Around here I don't have options to see many non-superhero movies as that is what is shoved into the Marcus theaters we have.   I also don't really love the output of original content the streaming services are putting out, so my new movie watching has been in a rut for a couple years now.  

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6 hours ago, -fish- said:

Nope.  Too much money at stake.  Hollywood will still produce movies.  Theaters may die or change, but Hollywood will go on.

I dont think you understand how this works

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8 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

I dont think you understand how this works

I guess my question with that is if theaters die, how does Hollywood get the content out?    

Each studio have a streaming service?  They get cannibalized and spread out to streaming services?  

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Was listening to Steve Deace yesterday. He predicted the studios would buy up the the larger theater chains for pennies on the dollar and keep the approximate 40% box office take that the theater chains normally keep.  

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1 minute ago, E Street Brat said:

Was listening to Steve Deace yesterday. He predicted the studios would buy up the the larger theater chains for pennies on the dollar and keep the approximate 40% box office take that the theater chains normally keep.  

Seems like the obvious answer. I’m sure Disney is tired of splitting ticket revenue with AMC. Just buy them out, theme the places with Disney/marvel/Star Wars designs and rake in the money. 

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8 minutes ago, Capella said:

Seems like the obvious answer. I’m sure Disney is tired of splitting ticket revenue with AMC. Just buy them out, theme the places with Disney/marvel/Star Wars designs and rake in the money. 

I’m surprised it hasn’t happened before now. 

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7 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I would much rather stream new releases at home than go to theaters to see them.

I bought Bill and Teds new movie for $25 the other day.  It was decent, but after I thought about how thankful I was to be able to watch a new movie, Sunday morning drinking coffee and the kids eating pop corn.  

Going to the movies can be a fun experience, but overall I saved at least $50 and a Sunday afternoon.  

I'll still be down for the big movies to be in a theater, but I'll be happy to watch 80% of them from the couch on my time.

Plus I own the movie now.  

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Disney+ put the price at $30 to stream Mulan.  In a hypothetical comparison where theaters are open and there's is no COVID risk, that probably is a pretty close call for us.  The live theater, big-screen experience is pretty cool.  The cost is much higher going out, especially after paying for drinks/snacks, and there's always the risk you end up at a showing with some ###holes in attendance.  Its hard to say, but I think I stay home with my family, on my couch, and we make our own popcorn and drinks about 9 out of 10 times.  I guess the question is whether the folks making movies can find a way to make it work at that price point.

 

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23 minutes ago, E Street Brat said:

Was listening to Steve Deace yesterday. He predicted the studios would buy up the the larger theater chains for pennies on the dollar and keep the approximate 40% box office take that the theater chains normally keep.  

Reminds me of Amazon buying up the mall space of stores they helped put out of business.

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Bars will never come back! Why would anyone ever go to a bar when they can drink at home, cheaper!  Bars are closing, and people are using online alternatives for dating like tinder and match!

- old married people who have forgotten what fun is

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Hollywood won't go away, theaters might but there's a big difference there. My company recently acquired the largest movie equipment rental company in Canada so I'm watching all this very closely. Their business hasn't slipped a notch since all this took off. They own a bunch of sound stages, basically rent everything out soup-to-nuts that you need to shoot a short, a series, a movie, whatever.

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9 hours ago, Pitchfork said:

Great now I'm going to have Eminem in my head all night. 

It's way better than the stupid McCartney Christmas tune I've got stuck in my head.

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16 minutes ago, Mrs. Rannous said:

It's way better than the stupid McCartney Christmas tune I've got stuck in my head.

Simply...having.......?

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Seems like the obvious answer. I’m sure Disney is tired of splitting ticket revenue with AMC. Just buy them out, theme the places with Disney/marvel/Star Wars designs and rake in the money. 

Is this not too close to a monopolistic pipeline?

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6 minutes ago, hagmania said:

Is this not too close to a monopolistic pipeline?

Could be if they own a certain % of available theaters. Could certainly get into a pricing fixing situation. 

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3 minutes ago, Capella said:

Could be if they own a certain % of available theaters. Could certainly get into a pricing fixing situation. 

Good point. Really they could just buy up the one or two biggest theaters in big cities and make them tourist attractions instead of buying a whole slew. The scarcity would draw the buyers.

I'm envisioning the big Regal theater at the Opry Mills Mall in Nashville, sitting right beside the Gaylord Opryland Hotel. I can just imagine that being a Disneyfied mega-theater.

Edited by hagmania
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52 minutes ago, Osaurus said:

Simply...having.......?

Lalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalala

I can't HEAR you.

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48 minutes ago, Capella said:

Could be if they own a certain % of available theaters. Could certainly get into a pricing fixing situation. 

They would argue that it's not fixing because they phase the releases out over different platform and having one platform at a high price does not restrict you from waiting for a different platform.  If DeBeers can get away with this logic (arguing mostly that you can always find a cheaper diamond at any size), MGM sure can. 

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3 hours ago, Capella said:

Seems like the obvious answer. I’m sure Disney is tired of splitting ticket revenue with AMC. Just buy them out, theme the places with Disney/marvel/Star Wars designs and rake in the money. 

 

2 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

I’m surprised it hasn’t happened before now. 

 

1 hour ago, hagmania said:

Is this not too close to a monopolistic pipeline?

Yes, that is actually how the movie business used to be. Loew's Theaters created MGM by merging 3 film production companies (Metro, Goldwyn and Mayer). This was pretty much standard practice then but United Stats v Paramount ruled against the practice and Loews and MGM were forced to separate. 

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I took my nephew to the movie theater last Friday and I forgot how much I missed the surround sound there. I don’t want to spend that kind of money for my house, my sound bar is just fine but nowhere near the movie theater quality of experience. Hearing the ghostbusters siren during the previews gave me chills in the theater, I can’t wait to see it on release day. 

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11 hours ago, tommyboy said:

The pandemic has probably killed it. Most movie theaters are within months of going broke without government intervention. Even the ones that have reopened are struggling to cover costs, let alone turn a profit. Hollywood keeps pushing back new releases. Disney just announced they are all in on their online platform, Disney+.

We will still have movies but it will never be the same.

If the pandemic can somehow take down the Kardashians and all of reality TV with it it’s a sacrifice I’d be willing to make....

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Theaters will come back in 2 forms. There will be less movies and less megaplexes but there will still be a market IMO for the huge event blockbusters like Avengers, Fast and Furious, etc. Those movies just can't be fully be appreciated at home. However, the days of movies like Lady Bird or Hidden Figures are likely gone unless you live in one of the major metropolitan areas that has a strong art foundation like an LA, New York or Chicago. The other end will be niche theaters that do art house, indies and revival shows. Also likely to be restricted to certain liberal artistic college town type communities and major cities but they will exist. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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4 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

I’m surprised it hasn’t happened before now. 

anti-trust laws.

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7 hours ago, zamboni said:

I agree. There's still an experience of watching a movie on a big screen that you can't get at home. Granted, that's not an issue for the average FBG with our own massive indoor theaters, but it does matter for the general public. I think that theater revenue will be much less of the movie revenue pie, however

I think this was a bigger advantage for theaters when watching at home meant watching on a 19" 480i CRT

There was a Samsung 70" LED TV on sale for under $500 a couple days ago.  Sound systems are just as stupidly cheap anymore.  You can get a subwoofer that will shake the pictures off your wall for like 200 bucks if that's your thing.  Plus you can actually control the sound rather than just cranking it to 11 for really loud distorted crappy sound like most theaters do.

Personally I will gladly take the bathroom breaks + adult beverages + $0.99 popcorn + not having to get a babysitter + no commute + wearing PJs over the slight upgrade in screen/sound quality.

And if the movie is popular and you don't get a good seat it's probably a downgrade in viewing experience even with a large movie theater screen.

Die theaters, die.

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7 hours ago, pantherclub said:

I dont think you understand how this works

Maybe you don’t understand how this works.  If AMC goes under right as the pandemic ends, we will have Amazon theaters, Apple theaters or Facebook theaters.  The buildings aren’t going anywhere and plenty of people (myself included) literally cannot wait until they can go to a movie theater.  I’d suspect the energy in the first marvel movie that is released to a packed house will be unreal.  

 

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1 hour ago, -fish- said:

anti-trust laws.

Anti-Trust laws are a thing of the past.  Nobody wants to put their name on laws that will hurt the reelection cash donations, 

Federal Regulations are the new Anti-Trust laws. And here's the catch. Those being regulated love it. They actually get to have their lobbyist write the regulations. Sure they may give an inch here or there, but those same regulations are a sure fire way to quash new competition.  

 

 

Edited by E Street Brat

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6 hours ago, E Street Brat said:

Was listening to Steve Deace yesterday. He predicted the studios would buy up the the larger theater chains for pennies on the dollar and keep the approximate 40% box office take that the theater chains normally keep.  

I'm a bit surprised that the studios are choosing to delay releases rather than find ways to go direct to consumer via streaming. I definitely don't think theaters will go back to anywhere near their prior levels.

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6 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Bars will never come back! Why would anyone ever go to a bar when they can drink at home, cheaper!  Bars are closing, and people are using online alternatives for dating like tinder and match!

- old married people who have forgotten what fun is

This. Theaters will always be the defacto first, second and fourth date. Where families go to get away from each other. Where parents go when they finally trust a babysitter. Where a ton of kids from 12-16 spends the middle of the day during the summer, when they want to meet the opposite sex (who will be staring into their phones the entire time). 

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Our local 8 screen theater is allowing people to rent a theater for private parties, but they are only showing blu-ray movies.   It's $100 for up to 15 people, with the concession stand open.

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14 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I would much rather stream new releases at home than go to theaters to see them.

 

Not me. Going to the theater is a much better experience.

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7 minutes ago, whoknew said:

 

Not me. Going to the theater is a much better experience.

I am with you, especially for genre movies like horror and comedy.  It's great with a great crowd.  

I guess I am just less impressed with the streaming service's original movies than most, and really hope that is not where movies are heading.   I mean - I guess if streaming is the only option, then the the good directors will be forced to go that route, but I still hope not.   

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12 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am with you, especially for genre movies like horror and comedy.  It's great with a great crowd.  

I guess I am just less impressed with the streaming service's original movies than most, and really hope that is not where movies are heading.   I mean - I guess if streaming is the only option, then the the good directors will be forced to go that route, but I still hope not.   

While I disagree on the quality of current streaming movies, even if we were to assume that the point here is that if theaters went away the current theatrical quality/type releases would be streaming movies instead.  It's not like Disney is going to stop making Marvel movies because there are no theaters and they have to sell them direct to consumers instead.

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i might be moved to eulogy if i thought myself to have an audience even Christ might be satisfied with. i'll say this instead.

as a business, perhaps, who cares. as an art, it was already going there. the reason is the same as the reason our culture is as corrupt as our politics - the audience leads it. if you're moved to take credit for that, don't. the business has let the audience shape the art because it knows that commerce can tell the audience how to shape the art in order to reduce cost & risk, just as finance has learned how to tell people to spend money. enjoy -

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13 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

 

 

Yes, that is actually how the movie business used to be. Loew's Theaters created MGM by merging 3 film production companies (Metro, Goldwyn and Mayer). This was pretty much standard practice then but United Stats v Paramount ruled against the practice and Loews and MGM were forced to separate. 

The Paramount Consent ruling no longer applies.

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16 hours ago, culdeus said:

They would argue that it's not fixing because they phase the releases out over different platform and having one platform at a high price does not restrict you from waiting for a different platform.  If DeBeers can get away with this logic (arguing mostly that you can always find a cheaper diamond at any size), MGM sure can. 

DeBeers didn't get away with it. They pled guilty to price fixing and paid a fine.  Until they did so they were not allowed to directly enter the US market. Since they did so--they have also lost the huge monopoly they had on the diamond market.   Most people in the trade that have knowledge believe that DeBeers currently controls maybe 25-35% of the diamond trade when before--they controlled 90%+.  

 

With that said--I think hollywood and theaters will come back. They will just be under new ownership. Instead of people giving their money to small and medium size theater owners--most theaters will be owned by large companies.  It's a perfect vessel for them to sell ads, get their content out, and they can also use the locations as retail hubs.  Even amazon could buy theaters to distribute their content and offer up tickets to people who sign up for advanced memberships..etc.   

Edited by jvdesigns2002

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Maybe this will open the doors for some drive in movie places. I'm lucky enough to have one open in the county I reside but they are few and far between right now. 

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16 hours ago, shader said:

Maybe you don’t understand how this works.  If AMC goes under right as the pandemic ends, we will have Amazon theaters, Apple theaters or Facebook theaters.  The buildings aren’t going anywhere and plenty of people (myself included) literally cannot wait until they can go to a movie theater.  I’d suspect the energy in the first marvel movie that is released to a packed house will be unreal.  

Funny, I was thinking just the opposite, that nobody would care enough about the theatre experience after a year+ of appreciating the benefits of watching movies at home. I guess it will boil down to how many people share your enthusiasm.

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