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Who Wins The Election? 2 Weeks Out (1 Viewer)

How many times out of 100, does Biden wins the election?

  • 95-100 times

    Votes: 16 9.0%
  • 90-94 times

    Votes: 22 12.4%
  • 85-89 times

    Votes: 20 11.2%
  • 80-84 times

    Votes: 29 16.3%
  • 70-79 times

    Votes: 27 15.2%
  • 60-69 times

    Votes: 13 7.3%
  • 50-59 times

    Votes: 21 11.8%
  • 40-49 times

    Votes: 9 5.1%
  • 30-39 times

    Votes: 5 2.8%
  • 20-29 times

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • 10-19 times

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • 0-9 tiimes

    Votes: 12 6.7%

  • Total voters
    178
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Joe Bryant

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I'll do another one of these next week.

The election is two weeks from yesterday. 

What's your guess on how many times out of 100, Biden wins the election?

I'm using the same phrasing as 538 does for this prediction.

The poll is anonymous but if you're inclined, post here your prediction.

Also please assume it'll be either Biden or Trump that wins.  

 
I have any uneasy feeling that Trump will win somehow. I know currently most polls don't favor that, but I don't like the trends that seem to be establishing themselves back in Trump's direction. So I put Biden at 40-49.

 
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I have any uneasy feeling that Trump will win somehow. I know currently most polls don't favor that, but I don't like the trends that seem to be establishing themselves back in Trump's direction. So I put Biden at 40-49.
Yeah, something strange is going on these last few days with really no reason for it, especially considering his recent actions and statements.

 
still like Uncle Joe at about 2:1.  I'd like to see the aggregate battleground polls be a little better, but considering some of the states that are even considered battleground at this point, still feeling ok.

 
Yeah, something strange is going on these last few days with really no reason for it, especially considering his recent actions and statements.
What has been strange?  As far as polling, I haven't see much out of the ordinary other than the IBD/TIPP poll.

 
In 2016, I thought 538 was underestimating Hillary's chances by around 10%.

In 2020, I think 538 is overestimating Biden's chances by around 10%.

 
My guess today is Biden wins 70 out of 100 times. 
I was around there and said 80.  In actuality, I'm not sure any of us have any clue whatsoever - my knowledge of this is driven almost completely by polls and the PSF.  The one thing that is anecdotal evidence from me - I live in a county/area that is pretty red.  A surprising number of people (surprising to me that is) are embarrassed by Trump and think he shouldn't be President.  On the flip side - there's almost nobody I know who is a big Biden supporter.  It's about not being Trump for people around here who plan to vote Biden. 

 
In 2016, I thought 538 was underestimating Hillary's chances by around 10%.

In 2020, I think 538 is overestimating Biden's chances by around 10%.
Thanks. Anything in particular that makes you think that on either situation?
Incumbents tend to have an edge as it gets closer to an election. People who were once undecided, or who had been leaning heavily towards the opponent, will suddenly decide to "stick with what they know" and vote for the incumbent. I think many of the polls will start to reflect that as we get closer to the election.

I also feel like the Democrats have become somewhat complacent when it comes to campaigning. I realize that the pandemic has curtailed much of their plans, but it just seems like they are using the pandemic and the favorable polls as an excuse to just do as little as possible. For example, I feel like Obama should have been on the campaign trail a month ago.

Anyway, when you combine the incumbent edge with the Biden campaign's semi-complacency, and add various voter suppression tactics, it gives Trump more than a puncher's chance. If Trump wins, the postmortem analysis will show that Trump won in 2020 for the exact same reason that he won in 2016: Trump kept doing rallies.

 
Yeah, I keep having the feeling we saw this movie in 2016, and we know how it ends. I know things aren't exactly the same, but there are similarities.
To me, the comments people make like this are almost completely emotion driven.  Being pessimistic, trying to set yourself up to not be disappointed, etc.  I’m not picking on you Groovus because I kind of feel that way too but then when I think about it logically, I really have no data to support feeling this way.  We’ve discussed polling ad naseum for 4 years.  They were wrong but not WAY wrong.  They’ve made improvements.  It’s possible they will be even more wrong this time than last time but I don’t think they will.

And mostly for that reason I think Biden will win.

 
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Put another way - imagine waking up from a 5 year coma and you were presented with all of this data.  I can’t imagine most would conclude Trump would win.

 
I went with Biden at 60-69%, because I don't know how turnout is going to be, but more turnout favors Joe.

 
On this date in 2016, 538 had the national polling average Clinton 45.5%, Trump 39.1%, Clinton +6.4%. Comey would reopen the email investigation on October 28.  Right now they have Biden at 53.5%, Trump 45.3%, Biden +8.2%. Trump's working on a new email scandal as we speak.

 
To me, the comments people make like are almost completely emotion driven.  Being pessimistic, trying to set yourself up to not be disappointed, etc.  I’m not picking on you Groovus because I kind of feel that way too but then when I think about it logically, I really have no data to support feeling this way.  We’ve discussed polling ad naseum for 4 years.  They were wrong but not WAY wrong.  They’ve made improvements.  It’s possible they will be even more wrong this time than last time but I don’t think they will.

And mostly for that reason I think Biden will win.
Also, when people talk about polls being wrong this time they almost always assume the "true" results will favor Trump.  It's probably equally likely that polling errors could favor Biden. 

 
538 has Biden at 88 but I saw Nate Silver's tweet showing that if Biden loses FL his chance of winning goes down to 59%. Confidence not high that Biden takes FL.

 
On this date in 2016, 538 had the national polling average Clinton 45.5%, Trump 39.1%, Clinton +6.4%. Comey would reopen the email investigation on October 28.  Right now they have Biden at 53.5%, Trump 45.3%, Biden +8.2%. Trump's working on a new email scandal as we speak.
More than the extra 1.8% that Biden is ahead of Hillary, is the fact that he is over 50%.  That's why I put Biden at 80% or more.  In 2016 the undecided voters (15%) broke huge for Trump.  In this election there are way less undecided voters.  Trump will actually have to pull people away from Biden who already have their minds made up.

 
I say 80%, but I also expect the Russian troll army, and Bill Barr, to step up their game, which could reduce that number.  

 
One thing that lends itself toward favoring Biden is Trump's approval rating.

Since Dwight D. Eisenhower, presidents with a FiveThirtyEight average approval rating2 of 48.4 percent or higher on Election Day all won their reelection campaigns, and presidents with a FiveThirtyEight average approval rating of 43.6 percent or lower all lost.
Right now they have Trump at 43.1% across all polls, 43.4% for likely voters. He's been hanging around 44% for a while now.

 
I say it's 50-50, maybe slightly less.  Whatever the outcome, I hope we don't spend the next 4 years doing witch hunts again.  Let's get behind whichever person wins.  Probably be an easier task with a Biden win but I'm hopeful if Trump wins that both sides work with each other for the good of America.

 
I say it's 50-50, maybe slightly less.  Whatever the outcome, I hope we don't spend the next 4 years doing witch hunts again.  Let's get behind whichever person wins.  Probably be an easier task with a Biden win but I'm hopeful if Trump wins that both sides work with each other for the good of America.
We could have another poll about the possibility of this happening - my guess is it would be unanimous 0-10% likelihood.

 
I say it's 50-50, maybe slightly less.  Whatever the outcome, I hope we don't spend the next 4 years doing witch hunts again.  Let's get behind whichever person wins.  Probably be an easier task with a Biden win but I'm hopeful if Trump wins that both sides work with each other for the good of America.
There were no witch hunts. Look at the number of indictments and convictions. It was not insignificant.

 
On this date in 2016, 538 had the national polling average Clinton 45.5%, Trump 39.1%, Clinton +6.4%. Comey would reopen the email investigation on October 28.  Right now they have Biden at 53.5%, Trump 45.3%, Biden +8.2%. Trump's working on a new email scandal as we speak.
As Chaz already pointed out - that 2016 number has a high undecided/3rd party number of 15.4% and this time it's is 1.2%.  That's a huge difference.  So big it almost seems like it should be wrong but I'm not going to bother looking it up.  IF that is accurate then it goes a long way to show my Biden is/should be a heavy favorite at this point.

 
Trump losing the popular in 2016.

His Party lost by over 4M in the elections in 2018.

Unemployment higher than when Obama left office.

COVID still a big problem.

Biden is waaaaaay more likeable than Hillary....and more palatable than Trump to all but the biggest Trump supporters.

Low approval rating for Trump.

There's gametape on Trump whereas in 2016...there wasn't.

I put it at about 60-70% that Biden wins.

Trump can absolutely still win.  But I don't think it will be a wave for him...where it might be for Biden.  I don't think Trump wins the popular regardless.  If Trump wins....the story of his success will be an on point micro targeting of districts supportive of him with ads that push higher turnout in swing states; a higher % of African American voters for him in Swing States and/or the youth sitting this one out.  

 
538 has Biden at 88 but I saw Nate Silver's tweet showing that if Biden loses FL his chance of winning goes down to 59%. Confidence not high that Biden takes FL.
That doesn't make any sense (unless Silver doesn't believe his own model). WITHOUT winning Florida, 538 has Biden 90% or better to win in each of 19 states and the District of Columbia. Then there are 4 other states with high probability of Biden winning (PA - 87%, WI - 88%, NV - 89%, and NH - 87%). All those add up to 278 electoral votes for Biden. I don't see how all that blended together only yields a 59% chance without Florida.

 
More than the extra 1.8% that Biden is ahead of Hillary, is the fact that he is over 50%.  That's why I put Biden at 80% or more.  In 2016 the undecided voters (15%) broke huge for Trump.  In this election there are way less undecided voters.  Trump will actually have to pull people away from Biden who already have their minds made up.
On the flipside of that though is Trump is up to 45% versus 39% in 2016, even after these nightmare 3+ years.  That scares the hell out of me.   

 
On the flipside of that though is Trump is up to 45% versus 39% in 2016, even after these nightmare 3+ years.  That scares the hell out of me.   
Yep, that is very disturbing. It really bums me out actually to know that many people have been taken in (for whatever reason). He's an obviously awful human being, and he's done an obviously terrible job in this role. And yet...

 
I'm hopeful if Trump wins that both sides work with each other for the good of America.
I said the exact same thing in 2008, then 2012, then 2016......  each time it’s gotten worse. At this point I’m convinced Congress is 75% of the problem.   

 
That doesn't make any sense (unless Silver doesn't believe his own model). WITHOUT winning Florida, 538 has Biden 90% or better to win in each of 19 states and the District of Columbia. Then there are 4 other states with high probability of Biden winning (PA - 87%, WI - 88%, NV - 89%, and NH - 87%). All those add up to 278 electoral votes for Biden. I don't see how all that blended together only yields a 59% chance without Florida.
Am I missing something? https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1318899133911060480

 
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The whole Russian investigation into collusion was a witch hunt.  
By witch hunt, what do you mean? 

Here are the results of that investigation

There was criminal activity and it was discovered and punished. Would you rather let that go without consequences?

Remember that Mueller was a lifelong Republican with an impeccable record that was well regarded by all at the start of the investigation.
Can we please not relitigate this for the five millionth time here.  Everyone is well versed in their own POV in regards to it. 

 
I'm a Republican and I think Biden is going to win in a landslide. He's going to sweep the swing states and he's going to win several states that seemed like Trump locks just a few months ago. Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, maybe even Texas.

The reason I say that is that I just don't see the same level of enthusiasm from Republicans that I saw in 2016. Yes, we're tired of him too. When I talk to my friends, their attitude has changed from "I can't wait to vote for Trump!" to "I guess I'll hold my nose and vote for Trump." Which is funny in a way because it's the same thing that my liberal acquaintances said about Hillary.

When the end comes, I think it will be a relief to be honest. Who would have predicted that we really would get tired of all that winning, ha ha.

 
I said the exact same thing in 2008, then 2012, then 2016......  each time it’s gotten worse. At this point I’m convinced Congress is 75% of the problem.   
I wholeheartedly agree. The old school rank and file need to go.

 
Very strange responses in here from all of the same people who have assured us for 4 years Trump has no chance again. 
It's interesting how you get better discussion when you ask a sincere non assuming question.

And also if you try to have a discussion and not turn it into a gotcha type accusation for something they said in the past.

 
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It's interesting how you get better discussion when you ask a sincere non assuming question.

And also if you try to have a discussion and not turn it into a gotcha type accusation for something they said in the past.
It's always been the case here that if you are seeking quality discussion, you will find it.  If you can't find it, it's because you aren't looking for it..."same as day one" as a rather popular owner of this board has said many times in the past.  I went with the 80-84%....I still haven't given up on the electorate as a whole.

 
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