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Faust

Waiver Wire & FAAB Discussion prior to the Week 8 games

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5 minutes ago, -jb- said:

:rant:

I do think the one site I use (hint: analytics) sort of flys under the radar still.

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Deejay Dallas may be next in line in Seattle.

Got a lot of deserved flak for his failure in pass protection last night, but looks good with the ball in his hands - and Hyde is not the most durable guy either.

For keeper/dynasty leaguers, Carson and Hyde are both UFAs after the season, so could be an opportunity for the kid here.

Edited by zamboni
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7 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

I do think the one site I use (hint: analytics) sort of flys under the radar still.

Do tell. (unless your leaguemates are on this board)

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13 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Do tell. (unless your leaguemates are on this board)

I know some of my league mates use Footballguys, but not sure if they hang out in the forums.

Roto Viz

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1 hour ago, Deamon said:

Within a few years I think every player in every league is going to have Fantasy Life or SleeperBot on their phone and everyone will get the same info at the same time.

I expect that in a a few years, there will be apps that assess your team, SoS for ROS for each of your players, looks at bye weeks, owenrship trends, what your expected opponent matchup will be, and so much more, and prioritizes waiver moves for you automatically, with an API that lets it make claims in Yahoo or your league management tool of choice.

Basically you don't have to play at all. Your team is autodrafted, maximized by point system and VBD at your slot.

Your lineup is set based on expected maximized score, adjusting constantly as new info on real life game comes in (e.g. your WR goes from healthy to questionable? Maybe it's swapped out for a slightly lower ranked WR with a great matchup). Julio Jones is a GTD? You can assign a "start your stud" setting that if he plays, he is automatically slotted in your lineup in favor of the lowest expected scoring WR or flex. 

You get badly outscored in early games or RB1 goes down on Thursday? Your lineup is automatically adjusted from a safer floor setting to a high upside to try and offset the fact that the guy you thought was going to get you 20 points only got you 2.

The app takes in wisdom of the crowd votes and expert rankings for waiver claims, and automatically places your claims for you in priority chains based on needs.

Hands off the wheel FF management is coming.

And I am using this post as proof of idea so that when this gets built, I get a percentage. 

 

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1 minute ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I expect that in a a few years, there will be apps that assess your team, SoS for ROS for each of your players, looks at bye weeks, owenrship trends, what your expected opponent matchup will be, and so much more, and prioritizes waiver moves for you automatically, with an API that lets it make claims in Yahoo or your league management tool of choice.

Basically you don't have to play at all. Your team is autodrafted, maximized by point system and VBD at your slot.

Your lineup is set based on expected maximized score, adjusting constantly as new info on real life game comes in (e.g. your WR goes from healthy to questionable? Maybe it's swapped out for a slightly lower ranked WR with a great matchup). Julio Jones is a GTD? You can assign a "start your stud" setting that if he plays, he is automatically slotted in your lineup in favor of the lowest expected scoring WR or flex. 

You get badly outscored in early games or RB1 goes down on Thursday? Your lineup is automatically adjusted from a safer floor setting to a high upside to try and offset the fact that the guy you thought was going to get you 20 points only got you 2.

The app takes in wisdom of the crowd votes and expert rankings for waiver claims, and automatically places your claims for you in priority chains based on needs.

Hands off the wheel FF management is coming.

And I am using this post as proof of idea so that when this gets built, I get a percentage. 

 

Ugh.  I have a feeling you may not be that far off here, but am hoping it doesn't get to this.

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2 hours ago, tricky92 said:

I know some of my league mates use Footballguys, but not sure if they hang out in the forums.

Roto Viz

Is it worth it? I always loved Rich Hribar’s stats. Now I have to settle for Hayden Winks, which isn’t bad at all. I have PFF which isn’t too bad.

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Don't let your league rules fall into the basic algorithms. Adjust scoring, roster limits and flex rules so that your league is unique. Then anyone who wants to cheat and use a generic rating will be lost from the start.

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15 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Ugh.  I have a feeling you may not be that far off here, but am hoping it doesn't get to this.

Why wouldn't it? For $100/yr you can win your $250 league. Easy profit, no work!
 

The main issue you point out is very real -- there is really no separation between sites these days in terms of either speed of info, or depth of insight. Quality of analysis and insight decreases and/or moves to other venues that provide info much quicker, or way more robust and deeper sources of analytics. That goes for paid and free content -- I've seen an ongoing decline of old-timers on these free boards disappear over time.

At the end of the day, the one thing that I find helps separate my knowledge from others is actually taking the time to watch games. Not just those my fantasy team is in but all games -- watching preseason and paying attention to camp reports. Watching game film and replays. The eye test, while the most subjective of tests, is also one that I trust the most.

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10 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Don't let your league rules fall into the basic algorithms. Adjust scoring, roster limits and flex rules so that your league is unique. Then anyone who wants to cheat and use a generic rating will be lost from the start.

Lots of apps now just link to your league and custom make sheets based on that.  More of those sites probably to come.

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1 hour ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I expect that in a a few years, there will be apps that assess your team, SoS for ROS for each of your players, looks at bye weeks, owenrship trends, what your expected opponent matchup will be, and so much more, and prioritizes waiver moves for you automatically, with an API that lets it make claims in Yahoo or your league management tool of choice.

Basically you don't have to play at all. Your team is autodrafted, maximized by point system and VBD at your slot.

Your lineup is set based on expected maximized score, adjusting constantly as new info on real life game comes in (e.g. your WR goes from healthy to questionable? Maybe it's swapped out for a slightly lower ranked WR with a great matchup). Julio Jones is a GTD? You can assign a "start your stud" setting that if he plays, he is automatically slotted in your lineup in favor of the lowest expected scoring WR or flex. 

You get badly outscored in early games or RB1 goes down on Thursday? Your lineup is automatically adjusted from a safer floor setting to a high upside to try and offset the fact that the guy you thought was going to get you 20 points only got you 2.

The app takes in wisdom of the crowd votes and expert rankings for waiver claims, and automatically places your claims for you in priority chains based on needs.

Hands off the wheel FF management is coming.

And I am using this post as proof of idea so that when this gets built, I get a percentage. 

 

relevant

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On 10/25/2020 at 5:30 PM, Ministry of Pain said:

I didn't know that, glad that got cleared up...so Mostert IR, Wilson up next, Coleman as well, who is left going into next week?

 

McKinnon is the guy to own for SF until Mostert returns.  He was rested intentionally this week and against Seattle next week game script will call for him to be on the field a lot.

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6 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

Hasty

Believe it or not, I had buyer's remorse passing on Wilson, still wish I had put him in my line up but I grabbed Hasty instead and might end up with part of this back field for a while. Coleman coming off IR doesn't really bother me, he has been abysmal since he got there in SF from ATL. 

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1 hour ago, heckmanm said:

I'm old enough to have hippie parents who had this as a 45. I don't think we reach 2525 as a species, let alone 8585 or 9595 or wherever this song leaves off.

But good memories.

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16 hours ago, FreshiZ said:

I think this kid is already better than Tre'Quan "this is his breakout year" Smith.

Kid made the roster over guys that were on the roster last year as an undrafted FA with no OTA's, etc... The James Robinson of WR's. They saw him in practice and he showed he could pick up the playbook and do what Drew needed him to do and made the 53.

Ankle that put him out of the game didn't look great though...

I may try and pick this guy up. I've had Tre'Quan since he entered the league. He seems like he already is what he's going be in the league. A WR4 with the occasional WR3 type game. I read that Marquez is the 1st Saint to wear #12 in a game since Marques did so. That's gotta mean something, right? 

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6 hours ago, -jb- said:

I think Coleman is the stash for niners. I also want to say this hobby was way more fun when there weren’t a million websites telling everyone exactly what to do. I know I’m not alone. 

Now it’s about thinking Further out.  Picked Coleman last week.  Gio when the Mixon ankle wasn’t serious.  I like to rotate my worst roster spot with a Nostradamus acquisition.  Edmonds in draft night cause it seemed inevitable.  

sure they are not all hits but adds to the fun

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12 hours ago, -jb- said:

Higgins, given ODB out for season. 

Thinking about shedding Jeudy for this kind of upside. Jeudy has regressed since the one game where he actually did anything to contribute from a fantasy angle (2 catches, 63 yards, TD) and not thinking it gets any better.

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5 hours ago, Deamon said:

Ugh.  I have a feeling you may not be that far off here, but am hoping it doesn't get to this.

It's actually good.  So many less posts from people asking how to manage their team.  

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28 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Thinking about shedding Jeudy for this kind of upside. Jeudy has regressed since the one game where he actually did anything to contribute from a fantasy angle (2 catches, 63 yards, TD) and not thinking it gets any better.

Do you think Patrick has become the one, or Denver is just a situation to avoid in general?

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Nobody's mentioned this guy, maybe in many leagues he's owned, but other than Chase Edmonds(who I assume is owned in more leagues) I think the biggest pickup of the week is Brandon Aiyuk. Has a nice schedule(Sea, GB, NO) coming up, Deebo is out again(I wonder if they'll be extra cautious with him) and is coming off his first 100 yard game. 

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30 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Nobody's mentioned this guy, maybe in many leagues he's owned, but other than Chase Edmonds(who I assume is owned in more leagues) I think the biggest pickup of the week is Brandon Aiyuk. Has a nice schedule(Sea, GB, NO) coming up, Deebo is out again(I wonder if they'll be extra cautious with him) and is coming off his first 100 yard game. 

agree.  if I don't get edmonds, I think I want Aiyuk.

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11 hours ago, zamboni said:

Deejay Dallas may be next in line in Seattle.

Got a lot of deserved flak for his failure in pass protection last night, but looks good with the ball in his hands - and Hyde is not the most durable guy either.

Hyde already experiencing hamstring tightness per Carroll.

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5 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Thinking about shedding Jeudy for this kind of upside. Jeudy has regressed since the one game where he actually did anything to contribute from a fantasy angle (2 catches, 63 yards, TD) and not thinking it gets any better.

Somewhat reluctantly dropped him for Tre'Quan this week (redraft) and was bracing myself for the inevitable big game but I honestly don't see the path from where he is right now to where he is startable.

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9 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Thinking about shedding Jeudy for this kind of upside. Jeudy has regressed since the one game where he actually did anything to contribute from a fantasy angle (2 catches, 63 yards, TD) and not thinking it gets any better.

I’m having the same thoughts.  I really thought Jeudy was going to be the rookie WR that made the earliest impact in the NFL.   I was wrong and it’s time to move on.  Denver doesn’t have a QB.  I’m in a small league with short benches but I’m looking at Aiyuk, Higgins, Sheperd, And A.J. Green.   That is my order at the moment.  

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If I can offer a quick perspective on the overflow of fantasy information and potential future automation, I think that this environment just requires looking for different advantages.  All these fantasy articles are "Player X had a bunch of yards this week for the first time, so pick him up."  I feel like the play is to come up with predictive metrics...target share before the big breakouts, identify players you think aren't all that good, and my personal favorite, players who were declared "bad athletes" at the Combine.  There's a high volume of fantasy information on the Internet, but I don't think it's super high-quality.  Frankly I often find better analysis on this site!

It's just a different form of strategy, in my opinion.

Edited by rschroeder1
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6 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

@Faust

Again thank you for bringing a WIDE range of opinions from several sites on the WW every week. 

Also like what @Stompin' Tom Connors does with his summary or worksheet of names to check off from. 

Agreed, thank you, fellas!

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21 hours ago, Gilroy34 said:

McKinnon is the guy to own for SF until Mostert returns.  He was rested intentionally this week and against Seattle next week game script will call for him to be on the field a lot.

Hasty will be the play this week.

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5 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

@Faust

Again thank you for bringing a WIDE range of opinions from several sites on the WW every week. 

Also like what @Stompin' Tom Connors does with his summary or worksheet of names to check off from. 

I try to cast a wide net on the articles that I post to weekly waiver wire thread because we all play in leagues of various shapes and sizes, so the free agent pool will look vastly different in one league to another.
 

I am also a big fan of what @Stompin' Tom Connors adds to this topic!

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I just saw that Tyrell Williams is expected return week 9. Seems like he's definitely under the radar. I even forgot what team he plays for - LVR. Any news on T Williams for a potential sneaky play moving forward as a WR #3 or upside #2?

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7 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Any Cleveland WRs worth grabbing?

read the thread/links.

Edited by The Frankman

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35 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Rashard Higgins, and keep an eye on the TE's now.

Isn't there a WR coming off IR or something too? Nothing beyond Higgins?

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I'm going to keep stanning for Reagor until the entire FBG community has rostered him.
 

Quote

 

John Clark

⁦‪@JClarkNBCS⁩

I’m told so far so good for Jalen Reagor trying to return Sunday night vs Cowboys 👍🏼

I’m told he has looked great in practice and his thumb feels good and if there’s no setbacks, needs to be cleared by doctor Thursday 👍🏼 pic.twitter.com/2J1yysoq7h

 

 

Edited by Buck Bradcanon

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D. Johnson RB for the Browns if he has been dropped since the week he blew up when Chubb went down. If Hunt goes down....

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Just now, Helaire-ious said:

D. Johnson RB for the Browns if he has been dropped since the week he blew up when Chubb went down. If Hunt goes down....

All those were garbage time carries when they were saving Hunt since he just came back from injury. He's received hardly any carries and Dontrell Hillard has come in more on passing downs.

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Just now, The Frankman said:

All those were garbage time carries when they were saving Hunt since he just came back from injury. He's received hardly any carries and Dontrell Hillard has come in more on passing downs.

Again, if Hunt goes down. Johnson has to get carries if no Chubb either, right? ;)

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14 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

Again, if Hunt goes down. Johnson has to get carries if no Chubb either, right? ;)

... some. So could Dontrell Hillard though. I mean you're advocating for a handcuff who isn't really the clear handcuff in a theoretical "what if the starter gets hurt" scenario though, which is why I'm responding here. Hunt played an astounding 90%+ of the offensive snaps last game and took all the passing down work. Johnson played 2 snaps.

Edited by The Frankman
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2 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

Again, if Hunt goes down. Johnson has to get carries if no Chubb either, right? ;)

Hunt on track to start week 8

bye week 9

Chubb back week 10

theres no decent option for Johnson unless something happens to hunt between now and sunday

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6 hours ago, Team Smokin' said:

I just saw that Tyrell Williams is expected return week 9. Seems like he's definitely under the radar. I even forgot what team he plays for - LVR. Any news on T Williams for a potential sneaky play moving forward as a WR #3 or upside #2?

Any source on this? Everything I have read says he is on season-ending IR.

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