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Joe Bryant

Who Wins The Election? 1 Week Out

How many times out of 100, does Biden wins the election?  

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The election is in one week. 

What's your guess on how many times out of 100, Biden wins the election? 

Not who you want to win. But who you really think will win. 

I'm using the same phrasing as 538 does for this prediction.

The poll is anonymous but if you're inclined, post here your prediction.

Also please assume it'll be either Biden or Trump that wins.  

Here was the poll for when the election was two weeks out.

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I don't think it has changed much to me...still thinking that 70ish range (but still apprehensive because things just seem crazy when it comes to Trump...the level of enthusiasm his voters have for him is still strange to me).

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Biden will likely win initially but Trump is not going to concede.  He will seek to throw out or delegitimize votes in states that he loses and he has the Supreme Court in his back pocket.  The GOP senators made sure of that.   It sucks but that's how I see it.

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3 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Sticking with Biden winning around 90% of the time.  I don't think this election is going to be remotely close.

I hope you're right GB.  I will say, I've noticed people beginning to distance themselves from their unwavering support of Trump.  Many of the "Trump can do no wrong and the problems aren't his fault" arguments I've read the last four years are now turning to the predictable "whataboutism" kinds of posts and the "well, just wait until Biden takes office, he's going to be so much worse" kinds of positions.  Normally that sort of thing doesn't happen until after the elections.

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My answer is qualified that there are no militias doing intimidation/violence at the polls or Republican legislatures don't do the end around and appoint their own electors. 

Both of which I think are real possibilities.  

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This election, more than any other in history, has really shown how we've personally curated our news/information. People I talk to on both side are convinced their side is going to win, based on what they see/read.

"All I see is Trump talk".

"I read a post from a guy who drove 800 miles to vote for Trump"

"These people waited 2 hours in the rain to vote for Biden - they're energized"

"All I see is Biden talk" 

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5 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I'm at 65 for Biden.

That's where I'm at. It's going to be closer than it should be, but hopefully it's convincing, either way, just to have it over.

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I don't want to weigh in with my opinion but iamcurious to get an explanation out of the 3 people who voted for 0-9. Genuinally curious, this isn't some 3d chess bait. 

Edited by AndrewClark

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4 minutes ago, jwb said:

This election, more than any other in history, has really shown how we've personally curated our news/information. People I talk to on both side are convinced their side is going to win, based on what they see/read.

"All I see is Trump talk".

"I read a post from a guy who drove 800 miles to vote for Trump"

"These people waited 2 hours in the rain to vote for Biden - they're energized"

"All I see is Biden talk" 

Really good post here. Insightful and convincing. Appreciate it friend. 

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I love in the heart of Trumpland USA.

These people are intense, but I'm still going 70-79 because I think Joe is just more palatable than Hillary was and Trump has played the fool fairly consistently over the past 4 years.

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0-9 still, the 9 being an Al Franken style late barrage of mail in ballots found in an important swing state that all happen to be for Biden. Listen folks, there’s far less enthusiasm for Biden than Hillary and he’s probably run the laziest campaign in history. No way does he wins without serious shenanigans. 

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Based on all of the polls showing Biden and the early voting favoring him as well, how is there anyway Trump pulls this off

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4 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

0-9 still, the 9 being an Al Franken style late barrage of mail in ballots found in an important swing state that all happen to be for Biden. Listen folks, there’s far less enthusiasm for Biden than Hillary and he’s probably run the laziest campaign in history. No way does he wins without serious shenanigans. 

Thanks for answering. (for the record, I respectfully disagree with your enthusiasm take but I do respect the opinion) 

Edited by AndrewClark

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3 minutes ago, AndrewClark said:

I don't want to weigh in with my opinion but iamcurious to get an explanation out of the 3 people who voted for 0-9. Genuinally curious, this isn't some 3d chess bait. 

I’m not one of them, but it’s some combination of “mainstream” media/poll distrust compounded by availability and confirmation biases. People who support Trump tend to live in places with other Trump supporters and seek out/preselect media sources which build on narratives like the “shy” Trump voter, “silent majority”, gains in minority voters, etc.

And 2016 certainly feeds into some of their beliefs.

FTR, I’m one of the 95-100%, so feel free to point out the absurdity of this post if Biden loses.

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2 minutes ago, Terminalxylem said:

I’m not one of them, but it’s some combination of “mainstream” media/poll distrust compounded by availability and confirmation biases. People who support Trump tend to live in places with other Trump supporters and seek out/preselect media sources which build on narratives like the “shy” Trump voter, “silent majority”, gains in minority voters, etc.

And 2016 certainly feeds into some of their beliefs.

FTR, I’m one of the 95-100%, so feel free to point out the absurdity of this post if Biden loses.

No absurdity at all. My question was earnest and so was your answer. Appreciated. I was genuinely curious of that mindset to be 90-100 or 0-9. It seems, to me, an unhealthy mind set for either "side" to have. 

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47 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

Biden will likely win initially but Trump is not going to concede.  He will seek to throw out or delegitimize votes in states that he loses and he has the Supreme Court in his back pocket.  The GOP senators made sure of that.   It sucks but that's how I see it.

If this plays out how you described, there will be another civil war in this country.  

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20 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

0-9 still, the 9 being an Al Franken style late barrage of mail in ballots found in an important swing state that all happen to be for Biden. Listen folks, there’s far less enthusiasm for Biden than Hillary and he’s probably run the laziest campaign in history. No way does he wins without serious shenanigans. 

Do you have data to support this though?  

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4 minutes ago, AndrewClark said:

No absurdity at all. My question was earnest and so was your answer. Appreciated. I was genuinely curious of that mindset to be 90-100 or 0-9. It seems, to me, an unhealthy mind set for either "side" to have. 

I'm not one of those people who treat 538 as Knowledge handed down from Mt. Sinai, but 538 has Biden at 88%.  He's up by about 10 percentage points in national polls, which is a huge margin that we haven't seen in quite a while.  I really don't think that those of us in the 90+ basket have a lot of explaining to do.

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I was 70% last week... I am moving down to 60% this week. Like @Jayrod I live in Trump Country. The kind of people that drive around with Trump flags flying in Pickup truck beds. I have already put in for a personal day next Wednesday. Tuesday is going to be a LOOOOOONNNGGG night   

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2 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

If this plays out how you described, there will be another civil war in this country.  

100 percent 

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11 minutes ago, AndrewClark said:

No absurdity at all. My question was earnest and so was your answer. Appreciated. I was genuinely curious of that mindset to be 90-100 or 0-9. It seems, to me, an unhealthy mind set for either "side" to have. 

Agreed. I don't think there are any absurd answers here. And I don't have any problem with the 90-100 or the 0-9 mindsets. I have a very close very conservative very smart friend that follows this extremely closely and I asked him this question last week and he was at Trump wins 85 of the times. I've another close friend who is just as smart who thinks it's Biden 85 times. 

And granted, there are a LOT more people who think my Biden 85 friend is more correct. I'm one. 

I do agree wholeheartedly though with the comment that people seek out those like them. The internet and message boards everywhere prove that each day. I totally get it. 

Edited by Joe Bryant
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52 minutes ago, Godsbrother said:

Biden will likely win initially but Trump is not going to concede.  He will seek to throw out or delegitimize votes in states that he loses and he has the Supreme Court in his back pocket.  The GOP senators made sure of that.   It sucks but that's how I see it.

What you're describing is a coup. Are you saying that's what would happen if Trump loses?

More importantly, what percent chance do you put on that actually happening if Trump were to lose?

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Just now, AndrewClark said:

No absurdity at all. My question was earnest and so was your answer. Appreciated. I was genuinely curious of that mindset to be 90-100 or 0-9. It seems, to me, an unhealthy mind set for either "side" to have. 

Why unhealthy? I’m not especially interested in politics (though admittedly, Trump has inspired me to become more involved), and my quality of life won’t likely change based on the election results. 

I chose 95-100% because I believe Biden is virtually assured a win. I base this on polls, high voter turn out and an overall sense of fatigue for Trump’s antics. 

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Just now, Joe Bryant said:

What you're describing is a coup. Are you saying that's what would happen if Trump loses?

"The only way I can lose is by a rigged election!!"

When the leader is saying stuff like that you should maybe take him serious.  

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Just now, Terminalxylem said:

Why unhealthy? I’m not especially interested in politics (though admittedly, Trump has inspired me to become more involved), and my quality of life won’t likely change based on the election results. 

I chose 95-100% because I believe Biden is virtually assured a win. I base this on polls, high voter turn out and an overall sense of fatigue for Trump’s antics. 

Honestly to answer your question, I probably shouldn't have stated that. I'm not good at politics stuff but, like you, have become way more aware thanks to Trump. So, it just seems if you have a 90 to 100 or 0 to 9 mindset, you're likely just locked into a position or "echo chamber" (I guess that the cool term all the kids are using). I want to hear from those people because nothing seems assured anymore from my standpoint. 

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1 minute ago, Joe Bryant said:

What you're describing is a coup. Are you saying that's what would happen if Trump loses?

More importantly, what percent chance do you put on that actually happening if Trump were to lose?

I think another interesting poll question would be at what juncture in time is there a winner declared? And who declares it? One of the parties? The AP? A network? The Supreme Court? Congress?

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5 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Agreed. I don't think there are any absurd answers here. And I don't have any problem with the 90-100 or the 0-9 mindsets. I have a very close very conservative very smart friend that follows this extremely closely and I asked him this question last week and he was at Trump wins 85 of the times. I've another close friend who is just as smart who thinks it's Biden 85 times. 

I do agree wholeheartedly though with the comment that people seek out those like them. The internet and message boards everywhere prove that each day. I totally get it. 

Do you, or does anyone know of a person who supports one candidate but firmly (90%+) believes the opposition will win?

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

"The only way I can lose is by a rigged election!!"

When the leader is saying stuff like that you should maybe take him serious.  

Also if it becomes clear that Trump and Republicans FastTracked ACB's supreme court nomination so he could dispute ballots counted in 1 or more battleground states, that would mean a civil war or a coup in my opinion. It would be clear to me that the election is stolen in those instances. I would rebel and I would be on the front lines against that. And I think all Americans should feel the same way. Again, my personal opinion. 

I have little doubt Biden wins the election (I voted 70 percent) but I have a ton of doubt it will stand. 

The president is saying it himself. You don't need sources other than his own mouth (and Twitter) 

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31 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

Based on all of the polls showing Biden and the early voting favoring him as well, how is there anyway Trump pulls this off

The projected shenanigans that WildBill posted about are the actual plans of Trump allies 

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1 minute ago, Terminalxylem said:

Do you, or does anyone know of a person who supports one candidate but firmly (90%+) believes the opposition will win?

Yes. I saw a TON of this in 2016 with Trump supporters who felt they had virtually no chance to win. 

I know several Trump voters who feel confident Biden will win.

I can't say I know any Biden supporters who feel confident Trump will win. 

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@Joe Bryant  and everyone here... you know what does suck? That this is the first time since 2000 where I feel like no one will have a clue who "won" based on election night TV coverage. That is the scary part to me. 

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Another brilliant thing about the way this country was established, the States run the elections. There is no federal oversight really over vote-counting, there may be some lawsuits filed and that kind of thing that may delay the results, but the Supreme Court's going to rule on the rule of law they are still lawyers and judges first, and even if things get crazy for a little bit there is going to be a clear-cut winner that will be declared and Trump or Biden can do nothing about it.

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Can we also just take a moment to reflect on the fact we even have to have a debate about election results being delegitmized? I mean, that, in and of itself, is crazy. But this discussion is real, not because of left wing loons on Twitter, but because of the current president's own words. This is not normal. 

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Prior to the last debate I thought it was 50/50 on who would win.  After Biden made his stupid oil comments, IMO he lost Pennsylvania which is one of the most important States in this election.  Any chance Biden had in Texas are gone.  He may have put Michigan in jeopardy as well.  I always thought Trump was going to win Florida, and I still do.  If Trump gets FL and PA it's game over, IMO.  I put it 60/40 Trump now.  

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4 minutes ago, AndrewClark said:

Honestly to answer your question, I probably shouldn't have stated that. I'm not good at politics stuff but, like you, have become way more aware thanks to Trump. So, it just seems if you have a 90 to 100 or 0 to 9 mindset, you're likely just locked into a position or "echo chamber" (I guess that the cool term all the kids are using). I want to hear from those people because nothing seems assured anymore from my standpoint. 

As @IvanKaramazov pointed out, the best predictive data we have suggests ~90% probability Biden wins. So perhaps a more reasonable guess would be 90-100%. But faith in the collective polls has nothing to do with living in an echo chamber.

Admittedly, I added an extra 5%, because I’m a bit of a Pollyanna, and want to believe the American people recognize Trump’s presidency has been a disaster.

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5 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Another brilliant thing about the way this country was established, the States run the elections. There is no federal oversight really over vote-counting, there may be some lawsuits filed and that kind of thing that may delay the results, but the Supreme Court's going to rule on the rule of law they are still lawyers and judges first, and even if things get crazy for a little bit there is going to be a clear-cut winner that will be declared and Trump or Biden can do nothing about it.

I would refrain from making any assumptions about what this current court would do. "Rule of law", what does that even mean anymore?

 

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4 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Another brilliant thing about the way this country was established, the States run the elections. There is no federal oversight really over vote-counting, there may be some lawsuits filed and that kind of thing that may delay the results, but the Supreme Court's going to rule on the rule of law they are still lawyers and judges first, and even if things get crazy for a little bit there is going to be a clear-cut winner that will be declared and Trump or Biden can do nothing about it.

Well, there is already talk of having the Supreme Court revisit their decision from last week on allowing ballots received in PA after Election Day to count. LINK

Yesterday they ruled that only ballots received by Election Day would count in WI. Be prepared for the GOP to try to get a preemptive ruing that only ballots processed and counted on Election Day should count. 

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4 minutes ago, Snotbubbles said:

Prior to the last debate I thought it was 50/50 on who would win.  After Biden made his stupid oil comments, IMO he lost Pennsylvania which is one of the most important States in this election.  Any chance Biden had in Texas are gone.  He may have put Michigan in jeopardy as well.  I always thought Trump was going to win Florida, and I still do.  If Trump gets FL and PA it's game over, IMO.  I put it 60/40 Trump now.  

I actually agree with you... it was a dumb unforced error. If Biden loses Pennsylvania this may be a major factor why. 

Edited by tuffnutt

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31 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

What you're describing is a coup. Are you saying that's what would happen if Trump loses?

More importantly, what percent chance do you put on that actually happening if Trump were to lose?

I am not sure I would call it a coup if Biden never takes office.  I think it is a certainty that Biden wins the popular vote and a 60% chance he gets enough electoral votes for a victory.  However Trump has already said they election will be rigged and has done everything in his power to cast doubt on and suppress absentee and mail-in voting.  There is no way he will just step down,  not a chance in hell.  You heard WildBill:  there is no way in his mind that Trump could legitimately lose this election and if does it was due to "shenanigans" by Biden.

I fully expect Trump to contest the results of any loss in a state where the votes are close, and even some that aren't.  He will fight this in court at the state level and it will likely ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court, which is stacked in his favor (IMO the main reason why the GOP insisted on rushing through the ACB vote).

Without a doubt this is the worse case scenario for the country but Trump has proven to me that  he doesn't give a damn about us.

 

 

Edited by Godsbrother
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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Well, there is already talk of having the Supreme Court revisit their decision from last week on allowing ballots received in PA after Election Day to count. LINK

Yesterday they ruled that only ballots received by Election Day would count in WI. Be prepared for the GOP to try to get a preemptive ruing that only ballots processed and counted on Election Day should count. 

That last part is overruling the Wisconsin Supreme Court I believe. This means they are rejecting a bedrock concept that State Supreme courts have any roll in state elections. kind of a big deal. I think we could a likely will see some full tilt boogie radical decisions with this court. And that decision was without Barret even on the court.  

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Just now, Godsbrother said:

I am not sure I would call it a coup if Biden never takes office.  I think it is a certainty that Biden wins the popular vote and a 60% chance he gets enough electoral votes for a victory.  However Trump has already said they election will be rigged and has done everything in his power to cast doubt and suppress absentee and mail-in voting.  There is no way he will just step down,  not a chance in hell.  You heard WildBill:  there is no way in his mind that Trump could legitimately lose this election and if does it was due to "shenanigans" by Biden.

I fully expect Trump to contest the results of any loss in state where the votes are close, and even some that aren't.  He will fight this in court at the state level and it will likely ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court, which is stacked in his favor (IMO the main reason why the GOP insisted on rushing through the ACB vote).

Without a doubt this is the worse case scenario for the country but Trump has proven to me that  he doesn't give a damn about us.

 

 

We'll just disagree then. I think someone taking the office of an election they didn't win is the definition of a coup.

That's radically different from a contested election that is decided exactly as the law outlines. 

Are you saying the Supreme Court is corrupted?

 

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43 minutes ago, AndrewClark said:

No absurdity at all. My question was earnest and so was your answer. Appreciated. I was genuinely curious of that mindset to be 90-100 or 0-9. It seems, to me, an unhealthy mind set for either "side" to have. 

Except available data actually points to Biden winning nearly 90% of the time.

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

 I think we could a likely will see some full tilt boogie radical decisions with this court. And that decision was without Barret even on the court.  

Are you saying the United States Supreme Court is corrupted?

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1 minute ago, Joe Bryant said:

We'll just disagree then. I think someone taking the office of an election they didn't win is the definition of a coup.

That's radically different from a contested election that is decided exactly as the law outlines. 

Are you saying the Supreme Court is corrupted?

 

I am not sure but the fact that Amy Coney Barret would not commit to recusing herself from hearing cases regarding the 2020 presidential election puts doubt in my mind about her.

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1 minute ago, Joe Bryant said:

We'll just disagree then. I think someone taking the office of an election they didn't win is the definition of a coup.

That's radically different from a contested election that is decided exactly as the law outlines. 

Are you saying the Supreme Court is corrupted?

 

I think the SC is getting more political as time goes on and the fear is their rulings may become solely based on party lines than the law. That’s not a good thing. I am not a huge fan of doubling back to hear cases and rule on decisions that have been on the books for years just because there is now a different philosophical make up of justices. 

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A little higher than before....... now at 80%

Trump lost the popular in 2016.

His Party took a bit hit across the country in 2018

Higher unemployment than when Obama left

250K dead with no end in sight.

Biden is immensely more likeable than Clinton.

 

Micro targeting,  the youth sitting out and/or a higher turnout in minority voters for Trump could swing the election to him.  I think he loses in the popular by more than he did in 2016 even if he wins the EC. Biden could be "William Wallaced at Falkirk" by the Sanders' Lords of the Left......but I think they're even getting in line.  

Both candidates have a "vibe" that could point that they're going to win.  Trump is drawing people with his rallies. Bidens ads (at least in SE PA) are very positive; extolling his virtues rather than Trumps deficiencies.  POTUS fatigue (something I think the entire country is suffering from) immensely helps Biden. 

I also think that the Barrett confirmation was a bit of a mistake for the R's/Trump.  It should have been a carrot to get people to the polls.  As it stands, I could see a lot of "on the fence" Republicans sitting this one out; smoking the metaphorical "post-coitus cigarette" in regards to ACB.....as they now have the ability to control the SC and don't really have a need for Trump's abrasiveness.   

 

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Just now, Joe Bryant said:

Are you saying the United States Supreme Court is corrupted?

You want an answer? YES. 

Are you saying a justice that would take a SC seat under current circumstances and will not commit to abstaining from election cases isn't?  Either one of those justices taking a seat in their circumstances is almost self defining as corrupt in my mind. Before one decision is rendered. They didn't have to take those seats. They took them in spite of the clear ethical issues.

After all we've seen from the executive and the legislative I'm curious why you are so committed to the idea that the judicial is beyond reproach.  

Is your standard if its legal then its ethical? Because I want to hold you to that if and when the shoe is on the other foot. 

 

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