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gruecd

Starting two WRs from the same team

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Do we like this strategy or not?  I'd think that it would help make your scoring more consistent, but also limits your ceiling.

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Exposes you a tiny tiny bit to the scenario where the starting Qb gets hurt and now you have 2 players suffering from it. But that’s so rare I wouldn’t factor it in. If they were my best 2 options I’d happily roll them together. 

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Essentially it's a non-factor -

When you are looking to set your lineup, if your projections have the two WRs from the same team as your two highest scoring options, you go with them.

If they are not your highest scoring options, then you don't start them.

 

It's no different than any other combination of players from the same team, unless you have some strange rules that give a bonus for having players on the same team (which is something I have never seen)

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Julio and Ridley have been destroying opponents for me this season.

🙂

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1. Completely depends on who the team is, and who the two wide receivers are

2. assuming #1 is answered with “2 good FF WRs”, then it depends on who the opposing team is.

3. in general, it can work out very well. Historically, there have been lots of wide receiver duos and even occasionally trios where all of the receiving corps are fantasy-worthy. That said, lack of diversity can lead to boom or bust scenarios. Let’s say you have two excellent wide receivers…and one week they play the Bengals, another week they play the Colts. Putting all of your eggs into one basket can lead to multiple players failing to produce rather than just the one who goes up against a top defense.

but the converse holds true when going up against weaker defenses…

Personally I would rather diversify. That said, I don’t mind having two receivers on the same team if the value is there on draft day.

There’s also increased peripheral risk. A team with lamb and Amari Cooper was looking pretty good for a few weeks, and then Dak Prescott went down.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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I guess my thinking is that you can start two guys from two different teams, and theoretically each could have the kind of monster game that Lockett had on Sunday night, for example. If I start two guys on the same team, it effectively eliminates that possibility.

Edited by gruecd
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I think its meaningless. Your best players are your best players, regardless of what else you have. Anything else is overthinking it. I wouldn't be opposed to starting a QB. RB, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF, all from the same team in a given week, if those are the best guys.

 

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I have been rolling out Will Fuller and Randall Cobb and seems to have worked fine most weeks. Need a passing offense though or a team that falls behind a lot. 

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Debating this idea myself. With the news of Thomas practicing today in a limited fashion after plugging in Robby Anderson now I’m debating of waiting on more news of Thomas and if he’s out rolling with either Hollywood or Diontae to go along with Claypool. 

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1 hour ago, gruecd said:

I guess my thinking is that you can start two guys from two different teams, and theoretically each could have the kind of monster game that Lockett had on Sunday night, for example. If I start two guys on the same team, it effectively eliminates that possibility.

Correct... it does limit your massive upside, and also limits your massive downside.  But like other posters, don't overthink this and play your best two players regardless of what team they are on.  I mean I suppose if it's Monday and you know you need a safe 15 points it could be advantageous, but you have no clue what you are going to need out of those two RB's, so don't overthink it and play the best guys

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Unless I trade one of them I'm about to find out. Have both Mike Evans and AB.

Could see a scenario where I play both in the  playoffs when TB faces MN, ATL, DET. 

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I’ve never had an issue with this as long as they are good players in good situations. Won a ‘chip last year with rolling out DHop and Fuller on a regular basis. Also won a ring back in the day rolling out DThomas and Decker in Peyton’s historic year. Point being, as long as they’re good players in a fertile fantasy offense, it’s not a problem.

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Several WR combos on same team have both been top 12, so WR1's ,  so I don't think it limits your upside but probably does help week to week consistency.

For most part it's a non-factor, but a week like this one were I got a ton of JuJu/Diontae and several Diontae/Claypool teams facing Baltimore it feels less then ideal.

 

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17 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Unless I trade one of them I'm about to find out. Have both Mike Evans and AB.

Could see a scenario where I play both in the  playoffs when TB faces MN, ATL, DET. 

Same here, and throw in Lenny as a flex option and I'm feeling like too many eggs in one basket. :unsure:

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I hate this strategy but I have done well with it in one league where I have both Lockett and Metcalf (not my intent, but those two are always my best options).

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1 minute ago, squistion said:

I hate this strategy but I have done well with it in one league where I have both Lockett and Metcalf (not my intent, but those two are always my best options).

I agree with you in that generally I hate this strategy too, but I am considering it this week. I really hate Thursday night games lol

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I’ll one up it. I’m starting Ryan, Julio AND Ridley tonight in the same lineup. (And DJ Moore) 

I have a lot of eggs in one thursday basket.

Let’s make some omelets.

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1 hour ago, Deamon said:

Correct... it does limit your massive upside, and also limits your massive downside. 

it’s also possible that it exacerbates the downside if they’re facing a tough secondary or the QB gets hurt ala Dak. In either of those scenarios you could have 2 bad games instead of 1/1

 

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3 hours ago, VikingFrog said:

I’ll one up it. I’m starting Ryan, Julio AND Ridley tonight in the same lineup. (And DJ Moore) 

I have a lot of eggs in one thursday basket.

Let’s make some omelets.

Oof. Talk about some rotten eggs. Except for Julio. But for a guy that had like 85 yards in the first quarter he had a quiet night.

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5 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

it’s also possible that it exacerbates the downside if they’re facing a tough secondary or the QB gets hurt ala Dak. In either of those scenarios you could have 2 bad games instead of 1/1

 

possible but someone is likely to catch targets... QB's still almost always throw for 200 yards a game so those have to go to somebody.

Of course there's exceptions but I think for the MOST part, 2 from the same team would give you a more consistent score.  But I don't think that is a good or a bad thing and wouldn't even really think about it.

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I just snagged john brown off waivers and have Allen and Diggs. Will most likely be starting all three this week and potentially moving forward. Seems the bills have transitioned to a mostly passing game and brown may finally be healthy. Crossing my fingers

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Not saying it can't work, but I don't like it. It also depends on how deep you are at the position. If you have Kupp, Lockett, JuJu, Fuller and Cooks.....deciding on who to start each week from HOU can be maddening. If you have Julio, Ridley and Lockett and then a bunch of WR3s or less....it makes it easier.

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I'd prefer not to do it, but I have Lockett and Metcalf so it's really a no-brainer given that they're my top 2 receivers. Beyond those two guys and Ridley/Julio, I'm not sure I'd be comfortable starting two from the same team on a regular basis. 

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Pretty simple for me...I would rather not do it but if I have to I will.

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14 hours ago, gruecd said:

I guess my thinking is that you can start two guys from two different teams, and theoretically each could have the kind of monster game that Lockett had on Sunday night, for example. If I start two guys on the same team, it effectively eliminates that possibility.

While I agree with those who say to just draft and play the best available, those in best ball leagues might want to stay diverse just to get that extra ceiling you mention.

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1 hour ago, zamboni said:

I'd prefer not to do it, but I have Lockett and Metcalf so it's really a no-brainer given that they're my top 2 receivers. Beyond those two guys and Ridley/Julio, I'm not sure I'd be comfortable starting two from the same team on a regular basis. 

Starting to feel okay about Boyd/Higgins, have used them both the last few weeks. Not a no-brainer by any stretch and a bad game by Burrows could sink me, but they've been producing. 

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Nothing wrong with it as long as the players are good.

I lost a title game to a Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne stack before.

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It is not a strategy to either target or to avoid.

In a draft, it may be a small factor when you are considering two very similar players, but if you have one guy rated in a tier above another and he happens to be on the same team as one of your earlier picks, you should generally take the higher rated WR.

During the season, it is a complete non-factor, you start the player you believe will score the most points that week.

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I'd asked the question because I currently have Metcalf and Thielen.  Had an opportunity to acquire Lockett (who I like better individually) for Thielen, but I opted against it for the sake of diversification.  Was just wondering what others thought, and I'm enjoying the discussion.

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9 minutes ago, gruecd said:

I'd asked the question because I currently have Metcalf and Thielen.  Had an opportunity to acquire Lockett (who I like better individually) for Thielen, but I opted against it for the sake of diversification.  Was just wondering what others thought, and I'm enjoying the discussion.

If its a redraft league I would stick with Thielen. If its a dynasty league I make the trade for Lockett.

I would rather have Russ throwing to my guys than Cousins.

What are the pros of diversification?

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

What are the pros of diversification?

I think more upside potential.  Like I said before, two guys on different teams could conceivably both go 15-200-3 in the same week.  Extremely unlikely that two teammates could ever do that.

Also, a QB injury is way more devastating when you have both your stud receivers on the same team.

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10 hours ago, Deamon said:

possible but someone is likely to catch targets... QB's still almost always throw for 200 yards a game so those have to go to somebody.

Of course there's exceptions but I think for the MOST part, 2 from the same team would give you a more consistent score.  But I don't think that is a good or a bad thing and wouldn't even really think about it.

As I’d said, I’ve done it before - to me the only factor is whether both WRs were FF-worthy. 

I look at it similarly to “the double” of QB/WR pairings. FF owners believe this myth that it’s somehow worth more. When really it’s the same as if your QB from one team throws a TD & your WR from another team catches a TD.  No more, no less. The only added value to the double is psychological. 

But similarly there is risk of having wild swings of production SOS-dependent. When facing PIT. INDY, BAL you now have 2 players in a tough matchup instead of 1, so there’s value in diversification. 

Like you, I don’t see any downside other than this potential added risk for lack of diversification. But I wouldn’t go out of my way to make a QB/WR pairing or plan on taking 2 WR from the same team. 

That said, when I had Jordy Nelson in the  2nd one year the best WR available in the 4th was Cobb, so I didn’t let the fact that I had Jordy stop me from drafting him as BPA. 

 

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Nothing wrong with it as long as the players are good.

I lost a title game to a Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne stack before.

My one title in a league I used to play in 15 years ago was with a PM, RW & MH stack. 

Steve? Is that you? :shock:

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4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

My one title in a league I used to play in 15 years ago was with a PM, RW & MH stack. 

Steve? Is that you? :shock:

Nope. That's my dad's name.

Its was likely the same year though. I remember LT had a great season that year but was a dud in that game for me.

Edited by Biabreakable
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Didn't read all the replies, but as a rule, you start your best guys.  I guess your ceiling drops as your floor rises, making for a safer, but less explosive, team.

I love fun and strange facts, and came across this while looking at some of the best WR games:
Stephon Paige is 3rd all-time with 309 receiving yards in a game, behind only Flipper Anderson (336) and Calvin Johnson (329).  Stephon had 8 catches for 309 yards and 2 TD's.  Only 1 other WR caught the ball (Carlos Carson), and he had 1 catch for 8 yards.  3 TE's each had 1 catch, as well as 1 RB, but no other player had over 9 yards.  Oh, and the starting QB threw for only 143 yards that day!

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17 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

Unless I trade one of them I'm about to find out. Have both Mike Evans and AB.

Could see a scenario where I play both in the  playoffs when TB faces MN, ATL, DET. 

I've had Evans and Godwin. I'd sure like to start both in the playoffs. 

Same league I have tyreek and Watkins. I'll start a healthy Watkins in the right matchups (always start hill). 

Edited by FUBAR

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12 minutes ago, gruecd said:

I think more upside potential.  Like I said before, two guys on different teams could conceivably both go 15-200-3 in the same week.  Extremely unlikely that two teammates could ever do that.

Yeah I think this may be true. I haven't read any studies on this for a pretty long time. I recall this being a topic of discussion way back and I read some pretty good studies on it. IIRC there wasn't much of a conclusion favoring either side of the question. It was kind of a wash. Just depends on the players.

12 minutes ago, gruecd said:

Also, a QB injury is way more devastating when you have both your stud receivers on the same team.

Yeah all the Cooper, Lamb, Gallup owners are feeling that right now.

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42 minutes ago, gruecd said:

I think more upside potential.  Like I said before, two guys on different teams could conceivably both go 15-200-3 in the same week.  Extremely unlikely that two teammates could ever do that.

Also, a QB injury is way more devastating when you have both your stud receivers on the same team.

15-200-3 has happened 3 times in NFL history.

1987 - Steve Largent - 15/261/3 (Jimmy Teal had 1/12/1)
2000 - Jimmy Smith - 15/291/3 (Keenan McCardell had 7/61/0)
2020 - Tyler Lockett - 15/200/3 (David Moore had 3/54/0)

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i agree with those who said this isn't something you should shy away from, but certainly would not use it as a strategy with one or two exception pairs each year. even then, not great.

let's say standard 1/2 pt PPR league. success in this scenario would be double digit points for both receivers in the same week (>9.9). in 2019, there were at least one pair of receivers who fit this scenario every week and many multiple pairs that qualify each week. That seems to say a good strategy.

however, the number of pairs that repeated this more than once in a season: 14. Of those, only 3 pairs did it more than twice. So while you would have enough stats to claim this works and why this topic comes up quite often, it's really not great. unless you think having two great weeks is a good strategy, then here you go.

2019

Cooper/Gallup (DAL) was the only pair to do it 5 times. This is easily a winning pair last year.

Gallup/Cobb (DAL) and Robinson/Miller (CHI) did it 3 times. Pretty sure rest of the weeks Robinson/Miller were barely startable.

Others who have done it twice in 2019: Ridley/Jone (ATL), Ross/Boyd (CIN), Landry/Odell (CLE), Sutton/Sanders (DEN), Golladay/Jones (DET), Hopkins/Still (HOU), Hopkins/Fuller (HOU), Conley/Chark (JAX), Slayton/Tate (NYG), Renfrow/Williams (OAK), Metcalf/Lockett (SEA), Godwin/Evans (TB)

Even what i would consider "elite" pairs that would have been hard to have both on your team in a season to begin with, like ATL, TB, SEA, CLE maybe even HOU and DEN, didn't do a whole lot in the same week for the duration of a season.

okay, this is only one season, so I'll take a look at prior seasons when i have more than a few minutes, but at least for last year no good.

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4 minutes ago, Pigskin Fanatic said:

i agree with those who said this isn't something you should shy away from, but certainly would not use it as a strategy with one or two exception pairs each year. even then, not great.

let's say standard 1/2 pt PPR league. success in this scenario would be double digit points for both receivers in the same week (>9.9). in 2019, there were at least one pair of receivers who fit this scenario every week and many multiple pairs that qualify each week. That seems to say a good strategy.

however, the number of pairs that repeated this more than once in a season: 14. Of those, only 3 pairs did it more than twice. So while you would have enough stats to claim this works and why this topic comes up quite often, it's really not great. unless you think having two great weeks is a good strategy, then here you go.

2019

Cooper/Gallup (DAL) was the only pair to do it 5 times. This is easily a winning pair last year.

Gallup/Cobb (DAL) and Robinson/Miller (CHI) did it 3 times. Pretty sure rest of the weeks Robinson/Miller were barely startable.

Others who have done it twice in 2019: Ridley/Jone (ATL), Ross/Boyd (CIN), Landry/Odell (CLE), Sutton/Sanders (DEN), Golladay/Jones (DET), Hopkins/Still (HOU), Hopkins/Fuller (HOU), Conley/Chark (JAX), Slayton/Tate (NYG), Renfrow/Williams (OAK), Metcalf/Lockett (SEA), Godwin/Evans (TB)

Even what i would consider "elite" pairs that would have been hard to have both on your team in a season to begin with, like ATL, TB, SEA, CLE maybe even HOU and DEN, didn't do a whole lot in the same week for the duration of a season.

okay, this is only one season, so I'll take a look at prior seasons when i have more than a few minutes, but at least for last year no good.

This is an interesting way to look at it. I agree we would want to look at more than one season.

Stacks like this happen more often in dynasty leagues I think than redraft. I don't think there are many long term duos who were both say top 24 WR in the same season, but there have been some.

I have no idea how the Vikings with Kirk Cousins and a coach who wants to run the ball keeps having two very good fantasy WRs but they have been doing that for several years now with Diggs and Thielen, then going way back with Moss and Carter.

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15 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

This is an interesting way to look at it. I agree we would want to look at more than one season.

Stacks like this happen more often in dynasty leagues I think than redraft. I don't think there are many long term duos who were both say top 24 WR in the same season, but there have been some.

I have no idea how the Vikings with Kirk Cousins and a coach who wants to run the ball keeps having two very good fantasy WRs but they have been doing that for several years now with Diggs and Thielen, then going way back with Moss and Carter.

completely agree with all of this. it's funny you mention Diggs & Thielen, I was surprised they didn't show up on this list so i went back a couple of times to make sure i wasn't missing anything. they did both have a good week in week 6 last year, but other weeks one had a monster week and the other didn't. again contributing to the cautious tale of starting even two elite players at once.

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While I think what @Pigskin Fanatic came up with is a decent measure, that's looking for elite pairs. I'd say what we really need to be looking at is starter worthy pairs, and that is a function of league size, lineup requirements and scoring system.

For example, with a 12 team, 3 WR required league, we'd be more interested in how often each WR was in the top 36 (FF starter) on a weekly basis, not how often they hit a certain scoring amount.

So even if we see an ebb and flow between two WRs on the same team as indicated by the previous post, if the top one for that week is a top 6 guy and the lower of those two is consistently top 24 (though which particular one flip flops from game to game), then it's still a good combo as both are regularly in the starter worthy WR group. We don't necessarily need (or reasonably expect) both to be top 12 every week. If however it is consistent that one of the WRs is top 6 and the other essentially falls off a cliff and is not starter worthy, then you have a more difficult decision (do you want to guess which one to start each week or not?)

Smaller (or larger) league or lower (or greater) number of starters, you adjust that baseline FF starter level accordingly,

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7 minutes ago, Pigskin Fanatic said:

completely agree with all of this. it's funny you mention Diggs & Thielen, I was surprised they didn't show up on this list so i went back a couple of times to make sure i wasn't missing anything. they did both have a good week in week 6 last year, but other weeks one had a monster week and the other didn't. again contributing to the cautious tale of starting even two elite players at once.

It gives you some insurance I think as one of the WR will likely have better games if the other is out with an injury or something like that.

But it likely doesn't happen very much where both of the WR are having big games the same week.

In 2018 Adam Thielen was WR 7 and DIggs was WR 11 for the season. Thielen had two games where he didn't score at least 10 points and Diggs had 4 games with less than 10 points and he missed one game that year. 

I am using full PPR stats so maybe .5 PPR makes things different but here is how each one scored

Thielen 16.2 31.1 24.5 27.5 24.6 29.3 26.0 24.8 12.7 B 15.6 26.5 13.8 12.8 3.9 13.3 6.7

Diggs 14.1 35.9 5.7 23.3 21.6 7.2 10.6 27.9  DNP B 31.6 22.9 9.9 12.1 15.8 9.0 18.7

Week 2 they both had 30 point games.  This game went to overtime and ended up as a tie vs the Packers.

Week 3 Diggs has 5.7 points Thielen has 24.5 

Week 6 Diggs has 7.2 points while Thielen had 29.3 

Week 9 DIggs misses the game and Thielen has his lowest score of that season so far with 12.7 points.

Week 13 Diggs has 9.9 points Thielen has 13.9 vs Patriots

Week 15 Thielen has 3.9 points and DIggs has 15.8

Week 16 Diggs has 9 points Thielen has 13.3 vs Lions

Week 17 Thielen has 6.7 points and Diggs has 18.7

As far as the match up vs the Pats this shows how going against a good defense can hurt both players. 

The average weekly score for all WR in the top 36 of 2018 was 13.8 twice that is 27.4

The times the combined score of Diggs and Thielen did not exceed 27.4 points was week 9 when DIggs missed the game and you would have started someone else for him. Week 13 vs the Patriots. Week 14 vs the Seahawks they both had 12 points. Weeks 15-17

So 5 out of 16 games the duo did not outperform the average score of a top 36 WR and one game where you would have known to start a different player than DIggs.

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I am not even sure how to interpret the above data that is from a success story to begin with and a bit of an outlier itself.  The data shows a 2 to 1 ratio of weeks where they outperformed the average of the top 36 WR compared to under performing it. So I guess that is in favor of doing it?

I think what we want to look at more is how often can two very good WR on the same team maintain their productivity together in multiple seasons.

Diggs and Thielen did it in 2017 and 2018 but Thielen was injured in 2019 breaking that streak. 

Metcalf and Lockett seem like a great duo to have this year and maybe for the next few seasons.

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If the focus is on weekly starts, then Tyler Lockett has had a more sporadic performances than Adam Thielen has. So the decision perhaps comes more down to this than what teams the players are starting for.

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4 hours ago, FUBAR said:

I've had Evans and Godwin. I'd sure like to start both in the playoffs.

 

2 hours ago, Pigskin Fanatic said:

i agree with those who said this isn't something you should shy away from, but certainly would not use it as a strategy with one or two exception pairs each year. even then, not great.

This is actually a year where there is a LOT of duo's playing great.  In 0.5PPR, these are the WR1's this season so far (top 12 PPG)

Adams
Lockett- SEA
Hopkins
Crowder
Thielen- MIN
AJ Brown
Ridley- ATL
Fulgham
Metcalf- SEA
Jones- ATL
Jefferson- MIN
Diggs


Pretty insane that THREE teams have multiple Fantasy WR1's on their teams.  Doubt that has ever happened before.



 

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18 hours ago, Deamon said:

 

This is actually a year where there is a LOT of duo's playing great.  In 0.5PPR, these are the WR1's this season so far (top 12 PPG)

Adams
Lockett- SEA
Hopkins
Crowder
Thielen- MIN
AJ Brown
Ridley- ATL
Fulgham
Metcalf- SEA
Jones- ATL
Jefferson- MIN
Diggs


Pretty insane that THREE teams have multiple Fantasy WR1's on their teams.  Doubt that has ever happened before.



 

I doubt it lasts all year but it's interesting right now, especially considering of the three duos, only one has a truly elite qb. Although Ryan does have the most pass attempts and completions right now. 

Funny, #13 on the list ppg is another packer (Lazard)

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22 hours ago, acarey50 said:

While I think what @Pigskin Fanatic came up with is a decent measure, that's looking for elite pairs. I'd say what we really need to be looking at is starter worthy pairs, and that is a function of league size, lineup requirements and scoring system.

For example, with a 12 team, 3 WR required league, we'd be more interested in how often each WR was in the top 36 (FF starter) on a weekly basis, not how often they hit a certain scoring amount.

 

this is a great point. i picked an arbitrary number of 10 as a cutoff assuming in PPR a good receiver should always get double digits, but i checked after reading your post and the average is actually in the 7-8pts range in 2019. Adjusting for this and using 36 as a benchmark, there are startable pairs in every team in 2019 except Baltimore, Cinci, and Philly. Top pair was Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore in Carolina with 7 weeks, which covers just about half a Fantasy season. Several other pairs cover 3 weeks or more, so this is all of a sudden better than i thought strategy. Better yet, at least one of each duo is viable starter/stud each week, so now focus would be on the QB play and play calling in general.

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