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FatNate

FanDuel Week 11

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If you guys could list your PayPal emails, I’d just as soon send you money every week than donating it to complete strangers. TIA

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23 minutes ago, w3junky said:

Hang in there. If I can take down two GPP's in a month anyone can, lol. My advice, don't get too cute with lineups. A lot of people believe you have to differentiate with a bunch of guys. But really you don't. Look at the millionaire contest winner. That dude's lineup was anything but crazy (Herbert, Henry, Gibson, Allen, Thielen, DJohnson, Taysum, MWilliams, Saints). You only need that 1 guy who is slightly under owned. I've also noticed that quite often most of the winners have a QB,WR,WR stack.   (San Diego and Minnesota this week)

I agree with what you are saying about not needing to get too cute and thinking we need all players <5% or something crazy like that.  However, I think the bolded is oversimplifying too much too.     I see a few things that stick out from that winning LU:

1.  I just looked at the projected ownerships, and even though neither of those RBs were under 10% - when I look at RGs projections they were RB12 and RB14.  So that person had to dig a little deeper for each, and having both was probably a pretty low % combo.  

2.  We have been talking all this season that not enough people double stack with the Qb that they did that here - and a lot of times that 2nd player will get you a lower owned players (Theilen projected at WR14, and M.Williams in single digits).   

3.  While not being super low owned, using the Minn and SD passing attacks  gave you natural leverage off a very chalky RB in Cook and the projected RB3 in ownership in Ballage while still giving you access and stacks for teams in the top 3 for the Vegas totals.   So even though Thielen wasn't really low owned, he was 1/4 the ownership of Cook and it let that lineup get over 30% of the field.  

4.  DT is a #### show most weeks, and that is usually where I look to get a <5% play.  

5.  F Taysum Hill.  ;)   I honestly thought that was the spot to pivot and get leverage, but he got it done.  

6.  The one thing that was surprising about the top LUs is that despite it being the case just about every week this year, there was no run back players in the SD stacks, and there doesn't look to be secondary correlations.   I was expecting to see more Zeke + Thielen correlations, or maybe a Gibson + D.  Stuff like that.  

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41 minutes ago, w3junky said:

Hang in there. If I can take down two GPP's in a month anyone can, lol. My advice, don't get too cute with lineups. A lot of people believe you have to differentiate with a bunch of guys. But really you don't. Look at the millionaire contest winner. That dude's lineup was anything but crazy (Herbert, Henry, Gibson, Allen, Thielen, DJohnson, Taysum, MWilliams, Saints). You only need that 1 guy who is slightly under owned. I've also noticed that quite often most of the winners have a QB,WR,WR stack.   (San Diego and Minnesota this week)

Thanks.  I do agree with your ownership comment.  One low owned person is often all it takes.

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8 minutes ago, beer 30 said:

If you guys could list your PayPal emails, I’d just as soon send you money every week than donating it to complete strangers. TIA

I love it.  Literally laughing here, at work, on a sucky Monday.  Same for me.  Please send me your Venmo information, also.

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I agree with what you are saying about not needing to get too cute and thinking we need all players <5% or something crazy like that.  However, I think the bolded is oversimplifying too much too.     I see a few things that stick out from that winning LU:

1.  I just looked at the projected ownerships, and even though neither of those RBs were under 10% - when I look at RGs projections they were RB12 and RB14.  So that person had to dig a little deeper for each, and having both was probably a pretty low % combo.  

2.  We have been talking all this season that not enough people double stack with the Qb that they did that here - and a lot of times that 2nd player will get you a lower owned players (Theilen projected at WR14, and M.Williams in single digits).   

3.  While not being super low owned, using the Minn and SD passing attacks  gave you natural leverage off a very chalky RB in Cook and the projected RB3 in ownership in Ballage while still giving you access and stacks for teams in the top 3 for the Vegas totals.   So even though Thielen wasn't really low owned, he was 1/4 the ownership of Cook and it let that lineup get over 30% of the field.  

4.  DT is a #### show most weeks, and that is usually where I look to get a <5% play.  

5.  F Taysum Hill.  ;)   I honestly thought that was the spot to pivot and get leverage, but he got it done.  

6.  The one thing that was surprising about the top LUs is that despite it being the case just about every week this year, there was no run back players in the SD stacks, and there doesn't look to be secondary correlations.   I was expecting to see more Zeke + Thielen correlations, or maybe a Gibson + D.  Stuff like that.  

I find D had to project and predict.  I often us it to save money and try to use a less than 5% owned D.  It is an easy way to help make a lineup different.

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14 minutes ago, FatNate said:

I find D had to project and predict.  I often us it to save money and try to use a less than 5% owned D.  It is an easy way to help make a lineup different.

It is hard to predict, and most of the time is comes down to DL pressure creating fumbles/Ints that lead to a TD and that's where the big points come.  

IMO people look too much at low total teams and take Ds vs them.  I usually look at that DL vs OL chart and focus on that, especially if it is against a team that has to play catch up or naturally passes a lot.   I am at work, so I am not 100%, but I am pretty sure the top 5 this week included Wash, NO, and Clev.  

Most of the time that small points against bonus doesn't come into play and it's about sacks and turnovers.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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47 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I agree with what you are saying about not needing to get too cute and thinking we need all players <5% or something crazy like that.  However, I think the bolded is oversimplifying too much too.     I see a few things that stick out from that winning LU:

1.  I just looked at the projected ownerships, and even though neither of those RBs were under 10% - when I look at RGs projections they were RB12 and RB14.  So that person had to dig a little deeper for each, and having both was probably a pretty low % combo.  

2.  We have been talking all this season that not enough people double stack with the Qb that they did that here - and a lot of times that 2nd player will get you a lower owned players (Theilen projected at WR14, and M.Williams in single digits).   

3.  While not being super low owned, using the Minn and SD passing attacks  gave you natural leverage off a very chalky RB in Cook and the projected RB3 in ownership in Ballage while still giving you access and stacks for teams in the top 3 for the Vegas totals.   So even though Thielen wasn't really low owned, he was 1/4 the ownership of Cook and it let that lineup get over 30% of the field.  

4.  DT is a #### show most weeks, and that is usually where I look to get a <5% play.  

5.  F Taysum Hill.  ;)   I honestly thought that was the spot to pivot and get leverage, but he got it done.  

6.  The one thing that was surprising about the top LUs is that despite it being the case just about every week this year, there was no run back players in the SD stacks, and there doesn't look to be secondary correlations.   I was expecting to see more Zeke + Thielen correlations, or maybe a Gibson + D.  Stuff like that.  

That is one thing I have really noticed in winning lineups is getting that low owned defense that is super cheap that no one seems to think of. Of course looking back now it makes sense that the Browns would be a good play against Wentz, esp in those weather conditions. 

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Did terrible this week, and that's entirely because I pivoted away from my traditional cash LU construction for all cash games except our league. Went with a BAL-TEN game stack and scored only 104, whereas my IND-GB stack scored 140. Would have come in on all my cash games had I simply just stuck with that. That'll teach me to second-guess my LU construction after 9 weeks of testing...

Hilariously enough, going ONLY IND-GB as GPP LU constructions allowed me to come out ahead in my GPP plays. LOL. I'm not going to question my strategies anymore. I think I've figured out how to actually consistently not lose too much.

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Anyone got a winner for tonight?

My current lineup:  MVP Jones with Goff/Brady/MacGinnis/Succop

I have no clue.

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9 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Anyone got a winner for tonight?

My current lineup:  MVP Jones with Goff/Brady/MacGinnis/Succop

I have no clue.

I have no clue either. This might be one to not touch. Last year these two teams played, and the result was TB 55 - LAR 40. Mostly passing as the running games were held in check. Each DEF scored also. Will it be more of the same? I say put Goff in at MVP, and then Brady / Evans / Reynolds / Everett.

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2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I have no clue either. This might be one to not touch. Last year these two teams played, and the result was TB 55 - LAR 40. Mostly passing as the running games were held in check. Each DEF scored also. Will it be more of the same? I say put Goff in at MVP, and then Brady / Evans / Reynolds / Everett.

Thanks.  I dropped the kickers and adjusted. 

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I stink at the single game stuff.  I barely ever play the Ks or Ds, but usually target games with lots of passing options to spread out ownership.  I am going to try 3 lus tonight on Fd, and rocking the TB old guys for the placeholder: 

Brady mvp+ Brown, Gronk, Goff, Reynolds. 

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42 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I stink at the single game stuff.  I barely ever play the Ks or Ds, but usually target games with lots of passing options to spread out ownership.  I am going to try 3 lus tonight on Fd, and rocking the TB old guys for the placeholder: 

Brady mvp+ Brown, Gronk, Goff, Reynolds. 

I went Kupp over Reynolds, others the same 

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I am still tinkering.  Going with this one. No more changes. 
 

MVP Jones - Kupp/Reynolds/Brown/Gronk

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Isn't the strength of both ds stopping the run? 

You might be right.  I know TB has a solid run D. I thought LA strength was the pass rush and stopping the outside pass, but soft against the run.  I didn’t spend much time digging deep and mostly wanted to find something a little different.  

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2 minutes ago, FatNate said:

You might be right.  I know TB has a solid run D. I thought LA strength was the pass rush and stopping the outside pass, but soft against the run.  I didn’t spend much time digging deep and mostly wanted to find something a little different.  

For sure.  Mostly I think these games on FD are a rip off.  With the scoring it always favors the QBs, and its hard to differentiate.  

After saying what I did above, I said wtf and threw the TB K in the cpt on a LU.  <1% as a captain - let's do this! Lol.  

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Here's poetic justice. Entered a $.05/LU contest tonight, put in 3 entries. Winning it right now. The contest payout?

1st - Ticket to $9 NFL Dessert :lmao:

I'm a ####### idiot

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1 hour ago, beer 30 said:

Here's poetic justice. Entered a $.05/LU contest tonight, put in 3 entries. Winning it right now. The contest payout?

1st - Ticket to $9 NFL Dessert :lmao:

I'm a ####### idiot

If it's any consolation, it looks like there currently is about a 50 person tie at the top of the regular .05 contest, and it's only at about $30 instead of $500.  Then after that is a huge list of people winning $1.  

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