Recent content by Adam Harstad

I was getting a head start on the season-ending evaluation for Rent-a-Kicker's performance, so I took a look at Boswell. My original position was that Boswell wouldn't maintain his FG accuracy (100% at the time), nor would he maintain his share of Pittsburgh's offense (45.9% of all points...

In a keeper league, if you're eliminated, then any player you cannot keep is worth literally nothing to you, and it is a positive-value move to trade them for anything that isn't worth literally nothing to you. If the best you can get for Breece Hall is a conditional pick-swap in the 22nd-round...

I mean, I write a weekly column titled "Regression Alert" where all I do is look at the highest and lowest performers in a metric that is historically fairly unstable and predict that both groups will regress strongly to league average and, as a result, the low performers will outperform the...

I assumed you were talking pure redraft (because, as noted, trading future picks is standard in dynasty). In keeper, the league already allows some future considerations, so I think it's less controversial to allow trading picks as well. (I started my first keeper league back in 2004 and we...

IMO, I'm not a huge fan of how sanded down and homogenized fantasy football has become over the last 20 years. It feels like a nearly endless procession of largely indistinguishable leagues. A bunch of start 1/2/3/1 PPR leagues with "wrinkles" largely being things like "we have a flex" or "we...

I know it probably doesn't help, but that really sucks and I'm sorry. I'm always pretty keenly aware that perfection is impossible, that being a "good analyst" in this space means that maybe 56% of people who follow your advice wind up with more wins and 44% wind up with fewer. Intellectually, I...

Yeah, one of my favorite uses of the kicker and defense spot in fantasy is tweaking correlations. Start a defense against the opponent's QB when you're a big underdog, say. Or pairing QB/PK (although I think the correlations there are actually positive-- a big day from the QB is more likely to...

Is Pittsburgh pretty unique? It stands out among other teams in 2024, but history is long and we've seen plenty of other defense-first teams with hyper-conservative head coaches (who were perhaps not the best at gameday management). We've had defense-first teams with this exact...

I'd have to look up my exact numbers, but it is correct that higher totals don't correlate to more kicker production at a strict 1:1 rate. On a league-average offense, the kicker usually accounts for about 31% of the points. For every marginal point per game above that, though, the kicker...

For what it's worth, this is currently the best-performing year in the model's history (debuted in 2018, with small tweaks and new, more-granular performance tracking starting in 2020). The average of the Top 3 weekly recommendations is currently outscoring 11 of the Top 12 kickers by preseason...

But even if we had perfectly estimated the fundamentals, Boswell has been outperforming them in a way that is unsustainable. Heading into this week, he had made 29 of his 30 kicks, which at 97% was the second-highest conversion rate in the league (behind Jake Bates, who had attempted half as...

Hey Mr. Palmer, big fan! Rent-a-Kicker isn't the deepest feature I do; the feedback I've gotten from most readers is they don't want a ton of words on how the sausage is made, they just want to know who to add this week, so I'll sprinkle in some bits and pieces on the process here and there but...

I may be biased, but I say let Dinsy cook.

I'm on to my first finals! And running pretty strong, to boot-- finishes of 54th, 17th, and 50th the last three weeks. Final analysis of my roster in terms of marginal points per dollar (which, to reiterate, is not really the important metric for performance, but I wanted to get a look at...

142.5 with Love (-30.5), and Mostert/Reed (-7.6 / 9.6) still out there. Not resting *super* easy but feel like I’ve got enough there to make my first finals— hard to see the Lion rising 20 points without at least one of those three guys heavily involved. Hopefully I don’t have to eat those words.