Recent content by Big Pink Monkey

That's why I do an aggregate expectation. The risk is built into the projection and the value number. Other than that, I just make a judgment call.If I have one guy that will score 300 or 0 and another that will definitely score 150, I'm not just picking based on a perception of value. I'm...

In practical terms, I think we're doing the same thing. I have a draft board that tells me certain things, but I'm keeping those scenarios in the back of my head. I look at the way the draft is going and figure out who is appropriate for my team beyond the simple numbers. However, I still try...

This is essentially what I do, but I compact the curve down to an aggregate expectation. I started doing this after learning about poker. If I have JJ and someone puts me all in, I can think about the likelihood of certain hands to make my decision:10% bluff 50% QQ-AA 40% AK The aggregate...

Gotta link?BTW, why doesn't FBG have a search feature for their articles?

Not exactly. The projection gives me my expectation for that player. The AVT value gives me the expectation for that slot. I always want to pick players whose expectation is equal to or better than the expectation for the slot. Essentially, the AVT value for the slot is the cost and the VBD...

I understand what you are saying, but I don't think it's good to build dropoffs into the model. I think it's better to use a standard baseline and adjust on the fly. The point is to get the team with the overall best value. I think part of the art of drafting is making those judgment calls as...

I use weighted because things were getting really skewed at the top because of some outlier years. But it probably is irrelevant.Anyway, I don't think it's valid to say that people would use averages if it was better. People in the aggregate don't always make the best decisions. More...

That's why I don't just make random guesses. I know people who do and they are very good at it, but I'm not. I do a lot of projections, so I have a reason to slot him 28th.In fact, I do multiple projections for most players based on different scenarios. If Lendale White (or Chris Brown, or...

I totally agree that player evaluation trumps everything else. If you think that Lendale White is going to be the #1 RB this year, you're screwed.My method can tell me whether I'd rather have Todd Heap or Marion Barber because I've slotted them in their positional ranking and used averages to...

Not at all. The original VBD article frames value in terms of "if we knew how the players would score, the team with the highest value would win." Historical, weighted averages are going to be much better approximations than projections will be.

I do projections, but only to get a sense of how I personally value a player. IOW, I want to know whether I would rather have Steven Jackson or LT. I want to know whether I would rather have Marion Barber or Jerious Norwood. It's the order that is critical and I know successful people who do...

I don't see how this is true. Value is relative. Of course, you would like to get positive value for your backups if possible, but it's just as valid to get the least negative value you can.

Thanks. I see they've tweaked VBD a bit from the old days and I'm out of the loop.However, it seems to me that this is a way to shift value to match your preconceived ideas of what value should be. That is, Joe thinks RBs should be more valuable, so he shifts his baseline to make it so...

Is this a joke or is there an article I can read?