Recent content by big windy

I needed 12.1 from Rice... Last year in week 15 I needed like 12 points from CJ2K when he had the long TD run at the beginning of the game and then did nothing.

Yeah, I was surprised by that as well. But then I thought about it some more...is he overly risk-seeking or is he just playing optimally? Since the Pats are already a really good team, they have one of the highest expected points ratios (Points Scored/Points Allowed). All else equal, the Pats...

Yeah that seems like a really good point about QB audibles. Luckily, at least I think, there aren't enough veteran gunslingers with the attitude and fan/front office support to influence the data too badly. And on a year-to-year basis, Childress always ranks near the bottom, even in 2010, so...

Attempts that traveled far in the air including incompletions. The pbp data I'm using has a "location" field that charts passes as short/medium/deep and left/right/center. This is great because passes that went for a lot of yards don't tell us much when there's a Percy Harvin on the field.

All great points and I'm not fooling myself into thinking I'll find the best possible measure. I tried to incorporate multiple attributes to measure aggressiveness so that no one attribute dominates the rankings. I think 4th down attempt rate outside of a team's own 20-40 is the most neutral...

2011 Gary Kubiak made the bottom 10 when factoring in pass% and unfortunately I started this before the 2012 data was available or I'm sure 2012 Kubiak would be down there also.. His first few years in Houston he actually ranks pretty high when considering pass%. This appears to be an instance...

I'm working on a method for describing coaches as "aggressive" or "conservative" that is going to feed some research that I want to do. Eventually, I'd like to attempt to answer questions such as, does playing extremely aggressively/conservatively when you are an underdog/favored or when you...

Matt, I remember your Gut Check columns on the turnover in top- and mid-tier players at QB/RB/WR/TE from the past, and I remember seeing an evolution of sorts in your dynasty rankings. Where you started to rank positions with less volatility higher in your rankings. Applying a little...

No problem. I agree, this stuff is hard. Picking up a relevant programming language (R, Matlab, etc.) helps a ton because once you code something up, you can re-use it with new datasets going forward. If you're doing it in Excel, it's a manual rework process every time. Also, the specific tests...

I think the next thing to explore to determine how useful the stat is would be to test for persistence versus chance. Maybe go back however many years of data that are available, take the average RZR for each season, look at the residuals on a player by player basis, and determine if players...

Did anyone try Bloomberg Front Office in 2012? I'm curious how it changed/improved from 2011. I used it in 2011, in my first fantasy baseball season, and while the in-season dashboard was awful, the preseason rankings actually helped me win a championship. It lets you input pretty much any...

This seems like a good strategy. Try to find value on the short nights and increase volatility in your scores on the busy nights. I play in 5-player leagues, and I've been trying a strategy where I basically just maximize my value from the Basketball Monster daily projections. I typically win...