Recent content by Hawthorne

I think where people are having a hard time understanding this is their unwillingness to see the fact that 99% chance of tying is not necessarily more valuable than a 34% chance of losing in regular game time, since you still have a medium probability of losing in OT.

To be honest, I was just asking because 1) I was curious. 2) The original poster could then fill out the additional statistics on his model.Personally, I like the idea of mathematical modeling in football analysis. No, it should never be a final barometer in determining whether a coach made a...

Yes, coins don't always "flow with momentum", but let's say a team has just scored 14 straight points. Doesn't that also imply that -- generally -- both offenses and defenses are playing well? So, technically, if you believe in the elusive concept of "momentum" in football, it shouldn't matter...

Has anyone ever broken down OT win/loss ratio by the team that was leading before OT vs. the team that was trailing before OT? That would put an interesting little cap on this discussion with regards to a statistical look at "momentum".

http://rnt.sportsline.com/cgi-bin/sportsli...php?p_faqid=534 I cancelled an account last year through their Help Center. The league was deleted by the next day (I think) and the refund came through on my credit card with no problems.

Yes, this increasingly insulting attitude towards "guppies" is what I was referring to in my original post. I did read the article (I've been a Footballguys subscriber for 4 years, but just created an account today just to reply to this particular thread).I agree with the article, but I think a...

Can anyone really consider themselves "sharks", if they're having trouble adjusting their draft strategy on the fly to some of the unexpected things that "guppies" do? One season, okay. But if you're losing out multiple years in a row to the same group of "guppies", maybe you're just not as...